 | This article may lack focus or may be about more than one topic.(July 2020) |
A new normal is a state to which an economy, society, etc. settles following a crisis, when this differs from the situation that prevailed prior to the start of the crisis (the "old normal"). [1] The term has been employed retroactively in relation to World War I, World War II, the September 11 attacks, the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the aftermath of the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic and other events. [2]
In 1918, Henry A. Wise Wood posted a dilemma,
To consider the problems before us we must divide our epoch into three periods, that of war, that of transition, that of the new normal, which undoubtedly will supersede the old. The questions before us, therefore, are, broadly, two: How shall we pass from war to the new normal with the least jar, in the shortest time? In what respect should the new normal be shaped to differ from the old? [3]
The phrase was extensively used by Roger McNamee in his 2003 interview to Fast Company while describing the new normal in technology development in regards to business and finance after the dot-com bubble bust,
Forget about the Next Big Thing, the next thing has started. It’s called the New Normal, and 2003 will be the first full year of it. The New Normal isn’t where you wait for the next boom. It’s about the rest of your life. ... There was so much urgency that every standard — for due diligence, leadership, recruiting, and investment — was relaxed. The New Normal is about real life — and real time. Getting things right the first time is more important than getting things done quickly. [4]
The phrase was used in 2005 by Peter M. Sandman and Jody Lanard in relation to methods of manipulation of attitudes of the public towards avian influenza. They explained that the initial, typically temporary, fearfulness of a novel risk such as a flu pandemic is something to be guided, that this initial period is a "teachable moment" and offers the opportunity of establishing a "new normal". [5]
The phrase was used in the context of cautioning the belief of economists and policy makers that industrial economies would revert to their most recent means post the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [6]
The 29 January 2009 edition of the Philadelphia City Paper quoted Paul Glover referring to the need for "new normals" in community development, when introducing his cover story "Prepare for the Best". [7]
The 2010 Per Jacobsson lecture delivered by Mohamed A. El-Erian at the International Monetary Fund, was titled "Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries". In the lecture El-Erian stated that "Our use of the term was an attempt to move the discussion beyond the notion that the crisis was a mere flesh wound...instead the crisis cut to the bone. It was the inevitable result of an extraordinary, multiyear period which was anything but normal". [6] [8] El-Erian's lecture cites a 18 May 2008 Bloomberg News article written by journalists Rich Miller and Matthew Benjamin for first using the term: "Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S." [9]
The phrase has subsequently been used by ABC News, [10] BBC News, [11] the New York Times, and formed part of a question by Candy Crowley, the moderator of the Second U.S. presidential debate of 2012. [12]
Since 2012, China's economy has shown a marked slowdown, with growth rates declining from double digit levels (before the 2007-2009 financial crisis) to around 7% in 2014. In 2014, a statement by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, indicated that China was entering a 'new normal' (Chinese :新常态). [13] This term was subsequently popularised by the press and came to refer to expectations of 7% growth rates in China for the foreseeable future. It was indicative of the Chinese government's anticipation of moderate but perhaps more stable economic growth in the medium-to-long term.
During the earlier parts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the term new normal was used to refer to changes in human behavior during the pandemic or speculated changes after the pandemic. [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20]
In May 2020, physicians at the University of Kansas Health System predicted that daily life for most people would change during the pandemic after the lifting of lockdowns. This would include limiting person-to-person contact, like handshakes and hugs, as well as maintaining distance from others, known as social distancing. They predicted things would change again after vaccines became available. [21]
In Europe, the term "new normal", first conceptualized in 2018 by Austrian philosopher and political scholar Paul Sailer-Wlasits, has become a popular buzzword in contemporary politics. [22] [23] Initially introduced in the German-speaking world, Paul Sailer-Wlasits associated the term with various phenomena, including political populism and the 45th U.S. administration under Donald Trump, which he critically dubbed the "new global normal". [24] Since then, the phrase has gained traction among politicians in Austria, Germany, and Spain.
In Austria, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz incorporated the term into his rhetoric typically based on a few catchy buzzwords from mid-April 2020, establishing it as a new political buzzword. [25] The Austrian media reacted critically to this, questioning whether this was intended to convey a permanent erosion of civil liberties. [26] [27]
Some commentators objected of overuse and misuse of the phrase by the media while describing atypical situations or behaviors, which turned it into a cliché. [28] [8] [2] Sociological research has also shown this terminology does not adequately capture societal shifts that occur during times of major disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. [29]
Citizens, requests may reach you through your comrade neighbors. I hope you will comply willingly; it will speed the day when I can bow out and life can get back to normal — a new normal, free of the Authority, free of guards, free of troops stationed on us, free of passports and searches and arbitrary arrests. [30]
A buzzword is a word or phrase, new or already existing, that becomes popular for a period of time. Buzzwords often derive from technical terms yet often have much of the original technical meaning removed through fashionable use, being simply used to impress others. Some buzzwords retain their true technical meaning when used in the correct contexts, for example artificial intelligence. Buzzwords often originate in jargon, acronyms, or neologisms. Examples of overworked business buzzwords include synergy, vertical, dynamic, cyber and strategy.
The economy of Asia comprises about 4.7 billion people living in 50 different nations. Asia is the fastest growing economic region, as well as the largest continental economy by both GDP Nominal and PPP in the world. Moreover, Asia is the site of some of the world's longest modern economic booms.
The economy of the European Union is the joint economy of the member states of the European Union (EU). It is the second largest economy in the world in nominal terms, after the United States, and the third largest at purchasing power parity (PPP), after China and the US. The European Union's GDP is estimated to be $19.35 trillion (nominal) in 2024 or $26.64 trillion (PPP), representing around one-sixth of the global economy. Germany has the biggest national GDP of all EU countries, followed by France and Italy. In 2022, the social welfare expenditure of the European Union (EU) as a whole was 19.5% of its GDP.
The phrase "Sick man of Asia", or "Sick man of East Asia" first referred to Qing China in the late 19th and early 20th centuries which, experiencing internal divisions and social upheaval at the time, was taken advantage of by the great powers. It originates in a play on the concept of a "sick man of Europe".
Recession shapes or recovery shapes are used by economists to describe different types of recessions and their subsequent recoveries. There is no specific academic theory or classification system for recession shapes; rather the terminology is used as an informal shorthand to characterize recessions and their recoveries. The most commonly used terms are V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, and L-shaped recessions, with the COVID-19 pandemic leading to the K-shaped recession. The names derive from the shape the economic data – particularly GDP – takes during the recession and recovery.
An economic recovery is the phase of the business cycle following a recession. The overall business outlook for an industry looks optimistic during the economic recovery phase.
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began with an outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. It spread to other areas of Asia, and then worldwide in early 2020. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020, and assessed the outbreak had become a pandemic on 11 March.
Flattening the curve is a public health strategy to slow down the spread of an epidemic, used against the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The curve being flattened is the epidemic curve, a visual representation of the number of infected people needing health care over time. During an epidemic, a health care system can break down when the number of people infected exceeds the capability of the health care system's ability to take care of them. Flattening the curve means slowing the spread of the epidemic so that the peak number of people requiring care at a time is reduced, and the health care system does not exceed its capacity. Flattening the curve relies on mitigation techniques such as hand washing, use of face masks and social distancing.
Economic turmoil associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has had wide-ranging and severe impacts upon financial markets, including stock, bond, and commodity markets. Major events included a described Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war, which after failing to reach an OPEC+ agreement resulted in a collapse of crude oil prices and a stock market crash in March 2020. The effects upon markets are part of the COVID-19 recession and are among the many economic impacts of the pandemic.
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India has been largely disruptive. India's growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2020 went down to 3.1% according to the Ministry of Statistics. The Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India said that this drop is mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic effect on the Indian economy. Notably, India had also been witnessing a pre-pandemic slowdown, and according to the World Bank, the current pandemic has "magnified pre-existing risks to India's economic outlook".
The COVID-19 recession, also known as the Great Lockdown, was a global economic recession caused by COVID-19 lockdowns. The recession began in most countries in February 2020. After a year of global economic slowdown that saw stagnation of economic growth and consumer activity, the COVID-19 lockdowns and other precautions taken in early 2020 drove the global economy into crisis. Within seven months, every advanced economy had fallen to recession.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on the environment, with changes in human activity leading to temporary changes in air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and water quality. As the pandemic became a global health crisis in early 2020, various national responses including lockdowns and travel restrictions caused substantial disruption to society, travel, energy usage and economic activity, sometimes referred to as the "anthropause". As public health measures were lifted later in the pandemic, its impact has sometimes been discussed in terms of effects on implementing renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected international relations and has caused diplomatic tensions, as well as resulted in a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding a global ceasefire.
This article documents the chronology of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2020, which originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Some developments may become known or fully understood only in retrospect. Reporting on this pandemic began in December 2019.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused far-reaching economic consequences including the COVID-19 recession, the second largest global recession in recent history, decreased business in the services sector during the COVID-19 lockdowns, the 2020 stock market crash, the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets, the 2021–2023 global supply chain crisis, the 2021–2023 inflation surge, shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic including the 2020–present global chip shortage, panic buying, and price gouging. The pandemic led to governments providing an unprecedented amount of stimulus, and was also a factor in the 2021–2022 global energy crisis and 2022–2023 food crises.
The United Nations response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been led by its Secretary-General and can be divided into formal resolutions at the General Assembly and at the Security Council (UNSC), and operations via its specialized agencies and chiefly the World Health Organization in the initial stages, but involving more humanitarian-oriented agencies as the humanitarian impact became clearer, and then economic organizations, like the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the International Labour Organization, and the World Bank, as the socioeconomic implications worsened.
This is an economic history of the 2020s. Economic history refers to the study of economies or economic events of the past, including financial and business history.
The Great Reset Initiative is an economic recovery plan drawn up by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The project was launched in June 2020, and a video featuring the then-Prince of Wales Charles was released to mark its launch. The initiative's stated aim is to facilitate rebuilding from the global COVID-19 crisis in a way that prioritizes sustainable development.
The Great Resignation, also known as the Big Quit and the Great Reshuffle, was a mainly American economic trend in which employees voluntarily resigned from their jobs en masse, beginning in early 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the most cited reasons for resigning included wage stagnation amid rising cost of living, limited opportunities for career advancement, hostile work environments, lack of benefits, inflexible remote-work policies, and long-lasting job dissatisfaction. Most likely to quit were workers in hospitality, healthcare, and education. In addition, many of the resigning workers were retiring Baby Boomers, who are one of the largest demographic cohorts in the United States.
In 2021, as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and, later, the ongoing 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, global supply chains and shipments slowed, causing worldwide shortages and affecting consumer patterns. Causes of the economic slowdown included workers becoming sick with COVID-19 as well as mandates and restrictions affecting the availability of staff. In cargo shipping, goods remained at port due to staffing shortages.
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