Opinion polling for the 2015 Queensland state election

Last updated

In the lead-up to the 2015 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Contents

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Graphical summary

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
LNPALPGRNPUPKAPOTHLNPALP
29 Jan 2015Essential [1] 39%38%7%5%2%9%50%50%
29 Jan 2015Newspoll [2] 41%37%6%3%2%11%52%48%
29 Jan 2015Galaxy [3] 38%39%10%5%2%10%46%54%
20 Jan 2015ReachTEL [4] 42%36.7%8.4%5.2%—7.6%52%48%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [5] 39.5%37%10%4%3.5%6%50.5%49.5%
7–8 Jan 2015 Galaxy [6] 41%38%8%3%3%7%52%48%
6–8 Jan 2015Newspoll [7] 42%37%7%1%1%12%53%47%
6 Jan 2015ReachTEL [8] 40.3%38.1%7.6%6.3%—7.7%50%50%
28 Nov 2014ReachTEL [8] 39.2%37.3%7.9%6.5%—9.1%49%51%
21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [9] 39%36.5%9.5%4%3.5%7.5%50.5%49.5%
18–19 Nov 2014Galaxy [6] 37%38%9%7%3%6%50%50%
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 37%36%10%—1%*16%50%50%
24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan [10] 38.5%38%10%6%2%5.5%49.5%50.5%
9 Oct 2014ReachTEL [8] 40.9%36.6%7.6%7.2%—7.7%51%49%
26–29 Sept 2014Roy Morgan [11] 42%35.5%9%6.5%2.5%4.5%51%49%
4 Sept 2014ReachTEL [8] 41.2%36%6%9.5%—7.2%51%49%
12–14 Aug 2014Galaxy [6] 39%36%7%12%3%3%52%48%
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll39%32%10%—1%*18%54%46%
7 Aug 2014ReachTEL [8] 41%34.4%5.5%12.6%—6.5%52%48%
3 Jul 2014ReachTEL [8] 38.7%34.4%6.1%15.4%—5.4%51%49%
5 Jun 2014ReachTEL [8] 40.9%34.1%5.2%13.6%—6.3%53%47%
21–22 May 2014Galaxy [12] 43%34%8%—5%10%55%45%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll32%34%8%—2%*24%49%51%
2 Apr 2014ReachTEL [13] 39.1%35.1%7.3%8.0%3.3%3.0%——
Jan–Mar 2014Newspoll40%36%8%—1%*15%52%48%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll40%32%8%—2%*18%55%45%
10 Jul 2013ReachTEL [14] 43.3%37.0%5.1%4.5%5.7%4.4%——
23 May 2013ReachTEL [15] 44.6%28.2%9.0%†10.4%7.8%——
Apr–Jun 2013Newspoll44%29%10%†3%*14%59%41%
19 Apr 2013ReachTEL [16] 45.1%29.2%7.7%†12.7%5.4%——
23 Mar – 2 Apr 2013ReachTEL [17] 45.8%30.4%8.2%†9.9%5.6%——
20 Mar 2013ReachTEL [18] 47.8%30.2%8.0%†10.1%3.9%——
22 Feb 2013ReachTEL [19] 47.1%28.9%7.9%†11.5%4.5%——
Jan–Mar 2013Newspoll49%27%6%†3%*15%62%38%
18 Jan 2013ReachTEL [20] 42.5%34.9%8.4%†10.5%3.6%——
14 Dec 2012ReachTEL [21] 41.9%32.1%8.2%†12.1%5.7%——
23 Nov 2012ReachTEL [22] 42%34.2%9.5%†8.9%5.4%——
Oct–Dec 2012Newspoll42%31%8%†4%*15%56%44%
12 Oct 2012ReachTEL [23] 44.6%30.5%7.5%†11%6.4%——
14 Sept 2012ReachTEL [24] 44.7%34.7%7%†9.4%4.1%——
17 Aug 2012ReachTEL [25] 44.2%31.6%9.2%†9.6%5.4%——
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Roy Morgan [26] 51%27.5%7.5%†5%9%59%41%
2 Jul 2012ReachTEL [24] [27] 56.5%21.8%9.4%†7.4%4.8%——
Jul–Sep 2012Newspoll48%30%9%†1%*12%60%40%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012Roy Morgan [28] 54.5%28%7.5%†3.5%6.5%62%38%
28 March 2012 Annastacia Palaszczuk becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
24 Mar 2012 election 49.7%26.7%7.5%†11.5%4.6%62.8%37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012Newspoll50%28%6%†‡16%60.8%39.2%
20–21 Mar 2012Roy Morgan [29] 51%28%7.5%†8.5%5%62%38%
* KAP is not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others".
† Palmer United Party announced in April 2013 [30] and registered in June 2013, [31] as such, there is no polling data before this point.
‡ KAP part of others prior to election. **On the final Newpoll (29 January 2015), PUP is included with the others total (14%), but a provided footnote shows them to have support of 3% of voters.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Leadership polling

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierNewmanPalaszczuk
NewmanPalaszczukSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
27–29 Jan 2015 Newspoll [2] 43%42%35%58%38%40%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [5] 48.5%51.5%not asked
6–8 Jan 2015 Newspoll [7] 42%38%41%51%38%38%
21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [9] 47.5%52.5%not asked
Oct–Dec 2014Newspoll44%35%38%51%38%34%
24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan [10] 47.5%52.5%not asked
26–29 Sept 2014Roy Morgan [11] 50%50%not asked
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll41%35%35%54%36%36%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll39%35%33%57%35%37%
Jan–Mar 2014Newspoll41%35%36%54%38%30%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll45%32%40%48%36%31%
Apr–Jun 2013Newspoll49%26%41%46%34%33%
Jan–Mar 2013Newspoll53%21%43%45%33%33%
Oct–Dec 2012Newspoll45%29%38%48%34%30%
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Roy Morgan [26] 62.5%20.5%51%36%33%28.5%
Jul–Sep 2012Newspoll55%21%47%38%29%30%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012Roy Morgan [28] 67.5%16%53%26.5%26.5%21%
28 March 2012 Palaszczuk replaces BlighNewman Bligh NewmanBligh
24 Mar 2012 election ––––––
20–22 Mar 2012Newspoll51%36%47%40%36%58%
20–21 Mar 2012Roy Morgan [29] 48%35%53%34.5%38.5%53.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Campbell Newman</span> 38th Premier of Queensland

Campbell Kevin Thomas Newman is an Australian former politician who served as the 38th Premier of Queensland from 26 March 2012 to 14 February 2015. He served as the member for Ashgrove in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland between 24 March 2012 and 31 January 2015. He was LNP Leader from 2 April 2011 to 7 February 2015; Newman previously served as the 15th Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 27 March 2004 to 3 April 2011.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Anna Bligh</span> Australian politician

Anna Maria Bligh is a lobbyist and former Australian politician who served as the 37th Premier of Queensland, in office from 2007 to 2012 as leader of the Labor Party. She was the first woman to hold either position. In 2017, she was appointed CEO of the Australian Banking Association.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Annastacia Palaszczuk</span> 39th Premier of Queensland

Annastacia Palaszczuk is an Australian politician and solicitor serving as the 39th and current premier of Queensland since 2015. She has been leader of the Queensland branch of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) since 2012 and a member of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland (MLA) for the division of Inala since 2006. She is the first woman to win the premiership from opposition and presides over the first majority female cabinet in Australian state and federal history.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Queensland state election</span>

The 2012 Queensland state election was held on 24 March 2012 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly, a unicameral parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 Queensland state election</span>

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.

This article collates results of opinion polls that were conducted in relation to voting intentions of the Australian public in the lead-up to the 2013 Australian federal election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 Western Australian state election</span> State general election for Western Australia

The 2017 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, including all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council. The eight-and-a-half-year two-term incumbent Liberal–WA National government, led by Premier Colin Barnett, was defeated in a landslide by the Labor opposition, led by Opposition Leader Mark McGowan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Redcliffe state by-election</span>

A by-election for the Queensland Legislative Assembly seat of Redcliffe took place on 22 February 2014. Yvette D'Ath won the seat for Labor.

Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

In the leadup to the 2019 federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on party's primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about views of the electorate about the major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2022 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders. Key polling companies are YouGov, Essential Media Communications, Roy Morgan Research, and Resolve Strategic.

In the run-up to the next Australian federal election, it is expected a number of polling companies will conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and likely contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote.

In the lead-up to the 2023 New South Wales state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2019 New South Wales state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2015 New South Wales state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2022 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2018 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2014 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2020 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

In the lead-up to the 2017 Queensland state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

References

  1. ↑ "7 The Essential Report – Queensland State Election" (PDF). news.com.au. 29 January 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 February 2015. Retrieved 29 January 2015.
  2. 1 2 "In the state election to be held this Saturday, while one of the following will you vote for?" (PDF). Newspoll & The Australian. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 June 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2020.
  3. ↑ Branco, Jorge (31 January 2015). "Queensland Election 2015: Early exit poll figures predict Labor win". Brisbane Times. Archived from the original on 30 September 2019. Retrieved 2019-09-30.
  4. ↑ "7 News – Queensland poll – 20 January 2015". ReachTEL. 21 January 2015. Archived from the original on 22 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  5. 1 2 "Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW". Roy Morgan Research . 22 January 2015. Archived from the original on 24 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  6. 1 2 3 "Galaxy Polling – Queensland State Election – 7–9 January 2015". Galaxy Research . Archived from the original on 28 February 2015. Retrieved 12 January 2015.
  7. 1 2 "Queensland" (PDF). Newspoll . The Australian. Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "7 News – Queensland poll – 6 January 2015". ReachTEL. 7 January 2015. Archived from the original on 14 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  9. 1 2 "Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call. Palmer United Party loses support in every State". Roy Morgan Research . 26 November 2014. Archived from the original on 8 December 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  10. 1 2 "Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call". Roy Morgan Research . 28 October 2014. Archived from the original on 15 February 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  11. 1 2 "ALP in 'Box Seat' for Victorian State Election. Coalition still ahead in NSW & Queensland". Roy Morgan Research . 1 October 2014. Archived from the original on 15 February 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  12. ↑ "18/19 Nov 2014: SUPPORT FOR LNP DROPS TO NEW LOW". Galaxy Research . Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  13. ↑ "Working for Queenslanders – Queensland state poll – 2nd April 2014". ReachTEL. 4 April 2014. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  14. ↑ "Queensland poll – July 2013". ReachTEL. 11 July 2013. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  15. ↑ "7 News – Queensland poll – May 2013". ReachTEL. 26 May 2013. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  16. ↑ "Do Queenslanders give a Gonski?". ReachTEL. 24 April 2013. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  17. ↑ "Largest scientific political poll in Australian history". ReachTEL. 10 April 2013. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  18. ↑ "Newman maintains lead in Queensland". ReachTEL. 21 March 2013. Archived from the original on 15 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  19. ↑ "Sharp increase for LNP support in Queensland". ReachTEL. 24 February 2013. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  20. ↑ "Queensland Labor support higher to start 2013". ReachTEL. 20 January 2013. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  21. ↑ "Queensland LNP performance causing Federal issues". ReachTEL. 16 December 2012. Archived from the original on 15 January 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  22. ↑ "LNP vote slumps further in Queensland". ReachTEL. 25 November 2012. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  23. ↑ "No support for asset sales in Queensland". ReachTEL. 14 October 2012. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  24. 1 2 "LNP support unchanged in QLD after a difficult month". ReachTEL. 16 September 2012. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  25. ↑ "Newman cops battering in State poll – Nine News Brisbane". ReachTEL. 21 August 2012. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  26. 1 2 "L-NP Lead in Four Major States". Roy Morgan Research . 17 August 2012. Archived from the original on 15 February 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  27. ↑ "Campbell Newman's first 100 days – LNP increases lead over Labor". ReachTEL. 3 July 2012. Archived from the original on 21 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  28. 1 2 "MORGAN POLL STATE VOTING INTENTION L-NP LEADS IN AUSTRALIA'S BIGGEST STATES: NSW: L-NP (61%) CF. ALP (39%); VICTORIA: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%) & QUEENSLAND: LNP (62%) CF. ALP (38%)". Roy Morgan Research . 16 June 2012. Archived from the original on 15 February 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  29. 1 2 "The LNP Looks Set to Easily Win Saturday's Queensland State Election with Former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman Elected Premier". Roy Morgan Research . 22 March 2012. Archived from the original on 11 April 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  30. ↑ "Palmer to re-form UAP party for election". Brisbane Times . 25 April 2013. Archived from the original on 26 September 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  31. ↑ Howells, Melinda (6 June 2013). "Billionaire Clive Palmer's party gains official registration in Qld". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 13 November 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.