Opinion polling for the 2019 Belgian federal election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2019 Belgian federal election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous federal election, held on 25 May 2014, to the present day. The results of the opinion polls conducted on a nationwide basis are usually split into separate numbers for the three Belgian regions. They are therefore split across the tables in the sections below, but seat projections for the Belgian Chamber are presented together.

Flanders

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, and for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5). Opinion polling for the 2019 Belgian federal election in Flanders.svg
Summary of poll results given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).
Date(s) conductedPolling firmNewspaperSample size N-VA Vlaams Belang CD&V Open Vld sp.a Groen PVDA OthersLeadGov.Opp.Lead
26 May 2019 2019 federal election 24.8%18.5%15.4%13.1%10.4%10.1%5.3%2.4%6.3%28.5%69.1%40.6%
6–14 May 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [1] 1,00328.1%14.8%17.1%11.2%11%12.1%4.7%1%11.0%28.3%71.7%43.4%
25 Mar–14 Apr 2019KantarVRT / De Standaard / RTBF / La Libre1,00627.9%9.3%14.7%14.2%12.7%14.6%5.9%0.8%13.2%28.9%71.1%42.2%
5–11 Feb 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [2] 99627.4%11.1%15%12.7%11%15.6%4.9%2.3%11.8%27.7%72.3%44.6%
13–17 Dec 2018IpsosHet Nieuwsblad [3] 1,00030.2%12%15.7%11.6%9.7%13.8%5.5%1.5%14.5%27.3%72.7%45.4%
9 Dec 2018N-VA quit the government; the other three parties continue as a minority government. The crisis is due to divergent positions on the Global Compact for Migration.
19 Nov–8 Dec 2018TNSLa Libre / RTBF / VRT / De Standaard [4] 1,03828.3%7.6%18.7%17.5%9.2%16%2.5%0.1%9.6%64.5%35.5%29%
27 Nov–3 Dec 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [5] 99828.0%11.7%14.6%13.4%12.3%12.2%6.2%1.6%13.4%56.0%42.4%13.6%
14 Oct 2018Provincial elections [6] 24.8%13.0%19.7%13.7%10.4%13.2%3.2%2.1%5.1%58.2%41.9%16.3%
20–27 Sep 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [7] 1,00025.0%11.3%17.2%12.8%12.1%14.1%4.4%3.1%7.8%55%41.9%13.1%
29 May–6 June 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [8] 1,00026.5%9.7%15.3%13.9%11.7%12.4%6.2%4.3%11.2%55.7%40%15.7%
26 Feb–17 Mar 2018TNS KantarRTBF / VRT / De Standaard / La Libre [9] 1,00332.4%7.5%16.4%14.7%9.5%13.8%4.9%1.0%16.0%63.5%35.5%28.0%
27 Feb–6 Mar 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [10] 96531.5%9.0%15.1%12.7%13.0%10.4%6.0%2.5%16.4%59.1%38.4%20.7%
27 Nov–4 Dec 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [11] 99529.5%10.4%14.1%12.2%10.9%13.2%5.5%4.2%15.4%55.8%40.0%15.8%
11 Sep–8 Oct 2017TNS KantarLa Libre / RTBF / VRT / De Standaard1,04528.0%6.5%19.4%15.5%11.0%13.9%5.1%0.6%8.6%62.9%36.5%26.4%
25 August–3 Sep 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [12] [13] 95930.2%7.9%16.1%12.1%12.2%13.4%5.0%—14.1%58.4%38.5%19.9%
23–27 June 2017Dedicated [14] L'Echo—27.1%11.7%16.9%12.7%9.5%12.5%7.3%0.7%10.2%56.7%33.7%23.0%
27 Mar–11 Apr 2017TNS MediaVRT / De Standaard [15] 1,03026.3%7.8%18.6%14.4%13.2%14.7%4.2%0.7%7.7%59.3%39.9%19.4%
16–20 Mar 2017DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [16] 1,03828.3%11.9%14.1%13.6%12.9%11.5%5.5%2.2%14.2%56.0%41.8%14.2%
10–17 Jan 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [17] 96427.4%10.3%14.9%12.9%13.2%12.2%5.4%—12.5%55.2%41.1%14.1%
24–28 Nov 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [18] [19] 1,00726.3%12.3%16.3%12.4%13.2%12.7%4.2%—10.0%55.0%42.4%12.6%
14 Sep–3 Oct 2016TNS MediaVRT / De Standaard [20] 1,01327.8%8.1%16.8%13.6%15.8%13.3%3.4%1.2%11%58.2%40.6%17.6%
19–25 Sep 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [21] 98325.9%12.0%17.6%12.5%13.7%10.7%3.9%—8.3%56.0%40.3%15.7%
2–6 Sep 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [22] [23] 1,00225.2%13.1%15.6%14.0%14.9%10.0%5.1%2.1%9.6%54.8%43.1%11.7%
6–12 May 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [24] 1,04524.2%13.9%13.8%13.2%15.6%11.1%4.8%—8.6%51.2%45.4%5.8%
31 Mar–4 Apr 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [25] [26] 97525.6%12.4%18.3%13.3%14.4%10.2%——7.3%57.2%37.0%20.2%
22 Feb–9 Mar 2016TNS MediaVRT / De Standaard [27] 1,00527.3%8.1%19.1%14.1%14.7%11.6%4.0%—8.2%60.5%38.4%22.1%
15–20 Jan 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [28] 1,04328.5%11.6%16.0%12.5%15.2%10.3%3.7%—12.5%57.0%40.8%16.2%
3–7 Dec 2015DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [29] 99029.2%11.9%15.0%12.6%14.1%11.6%——14.2%56.8%37.6%19.2%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [30] 1,03028.8%10.5%17.8%12.5%14.5%9.0%4.1%—11.0%59.1%38.1%21%
22 Sep–2 Oct 2015TNS MediaVRT / De Standaard [31] 1,01931.1%7.0%18.4%14.9%13.8%9.9%3.8%—12.7%64.4%34.5%29.9%
9–14 Sep 2015DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [32] 74527.5%9.7%16.0%14.4%16.2%10.1%3.8%—11.3%57.9%39.8%18.1%
12–18 May 2015DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [32] 76128.1%7.9%17.2%15.4%15.6%10.0%3.3%—10.9%60.7%36.8%23.9%
20 Apr–3 May 2015TNS MediaVRT / De Standaard [33] 1,03228.5%5.8%21.2%16.1%14.3%11.6%1.4%—7.3%65.8%33.1%32.7%
20–24 Apr 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws96328.3%8.0%15.8%14.0%15.6%10.7%3.2%—12.5%58.1%37.5%20.6%
5–9 Mar 2015DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 69128.8%7.4%16.7%15.4%16.4%9.6%3.4%2.3%12.1%60.9%36.8%24.1%
23–28 Jan 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [35] 1,03530.2%7.6%17.1%14.9%14.7%10.2%3.6%—13.1%62.2%36.1%26.1%
5–11 Jan 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [35] 1,04327.8%6.8%18.3%14.3%15.7%10.4%3.8%—9.5%60.4%36.7%23.7%
4–5 Dec 2014AQ RateHet Laatste Nieuws79428%6%17%12%16%14%2%—11%57%38%19%
27 Nov–1 Dec 2014DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 77330.9%5.7%18.2%13.3%15.2%10.2%4.0%2.5%12.7%62.4%35.1%27.3%
9–10 Oct 2014AQ RateHet Laatste Nieuws80130%8%14%16%18%9%3%—12%60%38%22%
22 Sep–3 Oct 2014TNS MediaDe Standaard / VRT1,02329.9%6.5%20.0%14.4%15.7%9.8%3.2%—9.9%64.3%35.2%29.1%
5–9 Sep 2014DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 79231.9%5.5%17.7%15.4%15.0%9.6%3.1%1.8%14.2%65.0%33.2%31.8%
July 2014AQ RateHet Laatste Nieuws88032.9%5.8%17.7%15.4%14.6%9.0%3.1%—15.2%66.0%32.5%33.5%
June 2014AQ RateHet Laatste NieuwsUnknown38.4%5.2%15.5%13.8%13.1%7.8%3.3%—22.9%67.7%29.4%38.3%
25 May 2014Federal election32.4%5.8%18.6%15.5%14.0%8.6%2.8%2.2%13.9%66.5%31.2%35.3%

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, and for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5). Opinion polling for the 2019 Belgian federal election in Wallonia.svg
Summary of poll results given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).
Date(s) conductedPolling firmNewspaperSample size PS MR Ecolo PTB cdH DéFI PP DC OthersLeadGov.Opp.Lead
26 May 2019 2019 federal election 26.2%21.4%14.5%13.7%11.0%4.1%3.7%?5.1%4.8%21.4%73.5%52.1%
6–14 May 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [1] 1,00028.5%22.7%19.1%9.2%9.7%3.9%3.5%?4.4%5.8%22.7%77.3%54.6%
26 Apr - 30 Apr 2019DedicatedLe Soir1,61126.9%20.7%16.3%13.9%8.6%4.3%4.9%?4.4% [a] 6.2%20.7%79.3%58.6%
25 Mar - 14 Apr 2019TNS KantarRTBF / VRT / De Standaard / La Libre [36] 1,00424.7%18.3%22.0%14.8%9.3%3.9%3.5%?3.5% [b] 2.7%18.3%81.7%63.4%
5 February-11 Feb 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [2] 99524.3%19.4%16.8%10.7%10.8%4.3%5.4%1.6%6.7%4.9%19.4%80.6%61.2%
9 Dec 2018N-VA quit the government; the other three parties continue as a minority government. The crisis is due to divergent positions on the Global Compact for Migration.
19 November–8 Dec 2018TNSLa Libre / RTBF / VRT / De Standaard [4] 1,01625.4%19.9%19.7%14.0%10.4%3.3%5.1%?2.2%5.5%19.9%77.9%58.0%
27 November-3 Dec 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [5] 1,00324.9%20.7%13.5%13.1%11.3%4.2%6.2%2.3%3.8%4.2%20.7%75.5%54.8%
14 Oct 2018Provincial elections25.4%23.7%16.2%10.0%12.8%4.6%3.1%?4.2%1.7%23.7%72.1%48.4%
20–27 Sep 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [7] 1,00023.6%20.6%10.9%13.1%10.1%6.9%6.7%2.1%6.0%3%20.6%73.4%52.8%
29 May–6 June 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [8] 1,00023.4%20%13.2%12.8%9%5.9%7.3%2.1%6.3%3.4%20%71.6%51.6%
26 February–17 Mar 2018TNS KantarRTBF / VRT / De Standaard / La Libre [37] 1,00323.2%24.1%17.5%10.6%11.1%5.6%3.4%1.0%3.5%0.9%23.2%71.4%48.2%
27 February–6 MarchIpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [38] 98323.9%21.2%13.5%17.3%7.2%6.5%4.3%1.1%5.2%2.7%21.2%73.6%52.4%
27 November–3 Dec 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [39] 99919.5%22.1%11.0%18.9%8.3%6.3%3.9%2.2%7.2%2.6%22.1%68.5%46.4%
11 September–8 Oct 2017TNS KantarLa Libre / RTBF / VRT / De Standaard1,07621.5%21.4%18.5%14.8%8.7%5.8%0.7%—8.6%0.1%21.4%70.0%48.6%
25 August–3 Sep 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [40] 96020.7%21.4%12.7%17.5%8.7%6.2%4.5%—0.7%21.4%70.3%48.9%
23–27 June 2017Dedicated [14] L'Echo62516.0%23.2%11.4%24.9%9.8%3.9%2.6%—8.2%1.7%23.2%66.0%42.8%
16–20 Mar 2017DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [16] 94620.3%22.7%11.2%20.5%9.9%3.0%2.2%—10.2%2.2%22.7%67.1%44.4%
16–17 Feb 2017iVoxSudpresse [41] 1,00021.3%20.7%13.7%17.4%10.1%4.5%6.9%—5.5%0.6%20.7%73.9%53.2%
10–17 Jan 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [17] 96123.6%19.4%11.2%16.3%11.2%2.8%5.0%—3.6%4.2%19.4%70.1%50.7%
24–28 Nov 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [18] [19] 89225.4%23.1%9.2%18.2%9.4%2.2%4.0%—2.3%23.1%68.6%45.5%
19–25 Sep 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [21] 98324.7%22.3%7.5%16.3%9.8%2.4%6.0%—2.4%22.3%66.7%44.4%
2–6 Sep 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [22] [23] 96225.6%23.5%9.2%14.6%10.5%3.9%5.3%—7.4%2.1%23.5%69.1%45.6%
6–12 May 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [24] 1,00325.8%20.1%10.1%13.5%12.0%3.3%5.5%—5.7%20.1%70.2%50.1%
31 March–4 Apr 2016DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [25] [26] 96726.4%23.9%11.1%10.4%12.8%2.4%5.5%—2.5%23.9%68.6%44.7%
15–20 Jan 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [28] 1,03426.7%23.1%9.2%8.8%11.1%3.4%5.2%—3.6%23.1%64.4%41.3%
3–7 Dec 2015DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [29] 91027.2%24.7%9.5%10.3%13.5%3.2%5.4%—2.5%24.7%69.1%44.4%
28 September–4 Oct 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [30] 1,01726.0%23.3%9.0%8.5%13.3%1.7%4.6%—2.7%23.3%63.1%39.8%
9–14 Sep 2015DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [32] 64329.7%24.2%9.2%9.7%13.5%2.6%4.1%—3.5%24.2%68.8%44.6%
12–18 May 2015DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [32] 68029.7%25.5%8.9%9.0%12.8%2.9%4.6%—4.2%25.5%67.9%42.4%
20–24 Apr 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws95225.8%26.1%9.1%8.5%13.1%2.2%5.0%—0.3%26.1%63.7%37.6%
5–9 Mar 2015DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 67828.7%25.2%8.3%8.3%14.3%2.9%3.5%—8.8%3.5%25.2%66.0%40.8%
23–28 Jan 2015IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [35] 1,04227.4%26.0%8.4%7.3%13.9%2.2%4.7%—1.4%26.0%63.9%37.9%
5–11 Jan 2015 ]IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [35] 1,05330.1%25.3%7.8%7.7%12.6%2.1%3.5%—4.8%25.3%63.8%38.5%
27 November–1 Dec 2014DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 65530.1%23.9%8.1%7.6%13.4%2.7%4.9%—6.2%23.9%67.7%43.8%
5–9 Sep 2014DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 67631.0%26.6%8.5%8.1%12.7%1.8%5.0%—6.3%4.4%26.6%67.1%40.5%
25 May 2014Federal election32.0%25.8%8.2%5.5%14.0%2.4%4.5%1.2%6.4%6.2%25.8%66.6%40.8%

Brussels

The table below shows the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Brussels Region, and for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Brussels Region.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5). Opinion polling for the 2019 Belgian federal election in Brussels.svg
Summary of poll results given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).
Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size Ecolo PS MR PTB-
PVDA 		DéFI cdH N-VA Open Vld sp.a PP VB CD&V Groen OthersLeadGov.Opp.
26 May 2019 2019 federal election 21.6%20.0%17.5%12.3%10.3%5.8%3.2%2.3%—1.7%1.6%1.3%——1.6%
6–14 May 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [1] 51922.9%17.3%15.5%7.9%13.7%6.5%5.7%0.7%—2.0%2.7%0.8%—4.3%5.6%17.0%83.0%
25 Mar-15 Apr 2019TNS KantarRTBF / VRT / De Standaard / La Libre [36] 75921.5%19.0%15.5%11.9%8.5%6.9%4.2%1.8%1.1%0.3%1.3%2.0%3.0%3.0% [c] 2.5%19.3%80.7%
5-11 Feb 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [2] 55919.9%15.9%15.3%7.5%12.5%4.3%6.4%1.7%2.1%2.2%1.9%0.9%2.7%—4.0%17.9%82.1%
9 Dec 2018N-VA quit the government; the other three parties continue as a minority government. The crisis is due to divergent positions on the Global Compact for Migration.
19 Nov–8 Dec 2018TNSLa Libre / RTBF / VRT / De Standaard [4] 74319.1%15.8%17.4%11.5%10.3%5.6%6.0%1.1%2.7%1.7%0.3%3.1%3.9%—1.7%27.6%70.9%
27 Nov-3 Dec 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [5] 53118.3%15.4%18.2%5.8%14.4%4.5%5.3%1.1%0.9%3.7%1.3%1.2%2.4%—0.1%25.8%66.7%
20–27 Sep 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [7] 100013.1%14.9%19.5%9.0%15.8%6.3%6.5%1.6%0.7%2.0%2.0%1.2%2.2%2.8%3.7%28.8%62%
29 May–6 June 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [8] 53211.9%14.2%17%9.5%15.4%7.4%6.7%2.3%0.8%2.4%2.3%0.9%1.5%7.7%2.8%26.9%60.1%
26 Feb–17 Mar 2018TNS KantarRTBF / VRT / De Standaard / La Libre [37] 54815.7%21.8%20.2%5.8%12.9%9.0%4.1%2.6%0.6%1.7%0.2%1.9%2.4%4.5%1.6%28.8%66.7%
27 Feb–6 Mar 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [42] 54813.5%16.6%17.8%7.4%14.3%6.0%6.0%2.7%0.4%3.2%1.0%1.1%3.6%9.6%1.2%27.8%62.6%
27 Nov–4 Dec 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [39] 55212.8%17.6%16.5%7.9%15.8%5.0%6.1%1.4%1.2%2.5%1.2%1.3%2.0%8.7%1.1%25.3%66.0%
11 Sep-8 Oct 2017TNS KantarLa Libre / RTBF / VRT / De Standaard75316.7%15.1%20.7%9.7%14.3%7.6%3.9%1.7%1.0%0.8%0.5%2.2%3.4%2.4%4.0%28.5%69.1%
25 Aug–3 Sep 2017IpsosRTL TVi/Le Soir/VTM/ Het Laatste Nieuws [40] 46912.3%12.1%19.8%9.0%18.4%5.8%3.4%2.0%1.5%2.5%1.5%1.8%3.0%—1.4%27.0%66.1%
23–27 June 2017DedicatedL'Echo [14] 67912.5%10.9%20.7%14.1%15.7%7.9%4.1%2.0%1.0%1.7%1.9%1.8%2.3%3.4%5.0%28.6%61.1%
16–20 Mar 2017DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [16] 91413.1%20.1%18.7%14.1%10.4%6.0%3.7%2.3%0.7%3.3%2.6%1.5%1.1%2.4%1.4%26.2%71.4%
10–17 Jan 2017IpsosRTL TVi/Le Soir/VTM/ Het Laatste Nieuws [17] 51010.8%18.1%18.4%12.1%9.3%7.9%5.1%2.6%1.9%2.2%1.7%1.5%2.5%—0.3%27.6%64.3%
24–28 Nov 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [18] [19] 89211.3%20.4%19%9.6%10.5%7%3.9%2.8%0.2%3.7%1.7%2.5%2.5%5%1.4%28.2%66.9%
19–25 Sep 2016IpsosRTL TVi/Le Soir/VTM/ Het Laatste Nieuws [21] 9839.8%15.5%20.3%11.2%10.9%7.8%———0.9%————4.8%20.3%*56.1%*
2–6 Sep 2016DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique [22] [23] 91712.9%19.8%20.1%7.5%11.3%6.5%4.2%2.6%1.5%3.0%2.4%1.9%1.8%4.5%0.3%28.8%66.7%
6–12 May 2016IpsosRTL TVi/Le Soir/VTM/ Het Laatste Nieuws [24] 5058.9%17.7%19.7%7.8%10.7%7.7%———2.0%————2.0%19.7%*54.8%*
31 March–4 Apr 2016DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [25] [26] 91810.2%21.1%20.2%6.1%11.1%8.8%4.0%2.6%—2.8%2.3%1.9%1.2%—0.9%28.7%63.6%
15–20 Jan 2016IpsosRTL TVi/Le Soir/VTM/ Het Laatste Nieuws [28] 5378.3%18.2%20.7%7.0%9.8%6.8%———2.1%———2.7%2.5%20.7%*52.2%*
Oct 2015IpsosRTL TVi/Le Soir/VTM/ Het Laatste Nieuws?9.2%26%23.1%8.8%3.4%11.1%———5.2%————2.9%23.1%*63.7*
5–9 Mar 2015DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] 9079.4%19.7%22.6%5.6%12.3%9.9%3.5%2.6%3.1%2.2%0.8%1.3%1.8%3.6%2.9%30.0%65.9%
Nov 2014DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] ?11.8%26.2%21.7%6.0%9.2%8.1%3.2%2.1%2.2%1.4%2.3%1.9%1.2%1.7%4.5%28.9%68.4%
Sep 2014DedicatedRTBF / La Libre Belgique [34] ?11.5%23.9%23.7%3.7%11.9%10.4%2.9%3.3%1.4%1.4%1.2%2.2%0.9%2.0%0.2%32.1%66.3%
25 May 2014Federal election10.5%25.6%21.9%4.0%10.8%9.4%2.6%2.6%2.0%1.8%1.1%1.7%*5.9%3.7%28.8%65.2%

Seat projections

The table below shows seat projections for the Belgian Chamber of Representatives when given by the reporting newspaper or polling firm.

By party

Summary of seats projections given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.75). Seats projections for the 2019 Belgian federal election.svg
Summary of seats projections given below from the election result 25 May 2014. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.75).
76 seats needed for majority
Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublishers N-VA PS VB MR Ecolo CD&V Open
Vld 		PVDA-
PTB 		sp.a Groen cdH DéFI PP OthersLeadGov.Opp.Lead
26 May 2019Federal election25201814131212129852005
6 - 14 May 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [43] 272013161516107911420074210866
25 Mar - 15 Apr 2019KantarVRT / De Standaard / RTBF / La Libre [44] 2720813161412121112410073911172
5 Feb - 11 Feb 2019IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [45] 281881414141289155320104011070
9 Dec 2018N-VA quit the government; the other three parties continue as a minority government. The crisis is due to divergent positions on the Global Compact for Migration.
27 Nov - 3 Dec 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [46] 2917916101312101111732012708010
14 Oct 2018 KU Leuven [d] Samenleving & Politiek [47] 2419101711191359127400573774
20–27 Sep 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [48] 261791671712911126620971798
29 May – 6 June 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [49] 291781591412121111552012708010
26 Feb – 17 Mar 2018TNS KantarRTBF / VRT / De Standaard / La Libre [9] 32186171214121071255001475750
27 Feb – 6 Mar 2018IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [10] 321871510141112111046001472786
27 Nov – 4 Dec 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [50] 30168159141214101156001471798
25 Aug – 3 Sep 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [40] 30157179141113111256001372786
23–27 June 2017DedicatedL'Echo2611101871612267104300Tie72786
16–20 Mar 2017DedicatedRTBf / La Libre Belgique281610188131216111062001071798
10–17 Jan 2017IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [17] 29178178141213111172101272786
19–25 Sep 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [21] 24191019518111113106220572786
6–12 May 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [24] 242012157131210141182204648622
15–20 Jan 2016IpsosRTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [28] 28219197141261498210773774
25 May 2014Federal election3323320618142136921010856520

By political family

Tallies for each ideology and probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority, in italic on light grey, if the coalition needs DéFI's support (which implies it does not include the N-VA).

Note that "asymmetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a; and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included CD&V but not cdH, as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling firmIdeologiesCoalitions
Far-
left		EcologistsSocialistsSocial-
liberals		Christian-
democrats		LiberalsNational-
conserv.		Far-
right		Left-
wing		Olive
Tree		 Purple-green Rainbow (Vivaldi + cdH) Jamaica TripartiteBurgundy Swedish
+ cdH
26 May 2019Federal
Elections		1221292172625186267769364728068
6 - 14 May 2019Ipsos7262922026271362758310372758273
25 Mar–15 Apr 2019Kantar1228311182527871778410271748370
5–11 Feb 2019Ipsos8292731926281064758210174728173
9 Dec 2018N-VA quits government over migration pact
27 Nov–3 Dec 2018Ipsos1021283202829115969779769768577
14 Oct 2018Provincial elections5232842630241056778110779848280
20–27 Sep 2018Ipsos919286232826115670759870798277
29 May–6 June 2018Ipsos1220285192729106067759466748475
26 Feb–17 Mar 2018TNS Kantar102425519293265968789772738680
27 Feb–6 Mar 2018Ipsos122029618263276167759364738776
27 Nov–4 Dec 2017Ipsos142026619273086065739266727676
25 Aug–3 Sep 2017Ipsos132126619283076066759468737777
23–27 June 2017Dedicated2617183203026106155658567687476
16–20 Mar 2017Dedicated1618272193028106164759467768577
10–17 Jan 2017Ipsos131928221292996068769769788679
19–25 Sep 2016Ipsos11153222430241258717710169868678
6–12 May 2016Ipsos10183422127241462737910066828572
15–20 Jan 2016Ipsos6163522231281057738210469889481
25 May 2014Federal elections2123622734334507582109739710394

Notes

  1. ↑ Including 2.1% for Alain Destexhe's list.
  2. ↑ Including 1.1% for Alain Destexhe's list.
  3. ↑ Including 1.0% for Alain Destexhe's list
  4. ↑ Extrapolation from provincial elections

References

  1. 1 2 3 "De Grote Peiling. Forse winst voor Vlaams Belang, groene euforie lijkt (in Vlaanderen) alweer voorbij". Het Laatste Nieuws. 17 May 2019.
  2. 1 2 3 "Grand Baromètre: la vague verte se confirme, le MR est en baisse". Le Soir (in French). 15 Feb 2019.
  3. ↑ "Eerste peiling sinds N-VA uit regering stapte: N-VA en Vlaams Belang cashen op migratie". Het Nieuwsblad (in Dutch). 20 Dec 2018.
  4. 1 2 3 "Politieke Peiling - De Standaard". standaard.be (in Dutch). 18 Dec 2018.
  5. 1 2 3 "Grand Baromètre: Ecolo, premier parti de Bruxelles". rtl.be (in French). 7 Dec 2018.
  6. ↑ "Som van de resultaten voor de provincieraadsverkiezingen naar het Vlaamse niveau". twitter.com (in Dutch). 16 Oct 2018.
  7. 1 2 3 "Grand baromètre: la N-VA poursuit sa chute". Lesoir.be (in French). 4 Oct 2018.
  8. 1 2 3 "Grand Baromètre: trou d'air pour la N-VA, qui chute de 4,8%". Lesoir.be (in French). 8 June 2018.
  9. 1 2 "N-VA dubbel zo groot als eerste achtervolger CD&V, SP.A duikt onder de 10 procent". 27 Mar 2018.
  10. 1 2 "Socialisten stijgen, N-VA blijft pieken". 9 Mar 2018.
  11. ↑ "Grote Peiling: SP.A in vrije val in Vlaanderen". 8 Dec 2017.
  12. ↑ "Groen haalt beste resultaat ooit, N-VA blijft met voorsprong grootste partij". 8 Sep 2017.
  13. ↑ "De Grote Peiling: N-VA grootste met 30,2%". 8 Sep 2017.
  14. 1 2 3 "La fusée PTB dans la stratosphère, le Parti socialiste s'écrase totalement". 1 July 2017.
  15. ↑ "Groen wordt de derde partij in Vlaanderen, N-VA verliest". 19 Apr 2017.
  16. 1 2 3 "Baromètre RTBF-La Libre: le PS s'effondre, le PTB triomphe". 24 Mar 2017.
  17. 1 2 3 4 lesoir.be (24 Jan 2017). "Grand Baromètre: le PTB se félicite de son succès auprès des citoyens".
  18. 1 2 3 "Baromètre RTBF: le PTB toujours plus haut". 2 Dec 2016.
  19. 1 2 3 "Baromètre politique: Le PTB poursuit son envol". 2 Dec 2016.
  20. ↑ "Regeringspartijen verliezen, Groen gaat met CD&V-kiezers lopen". 10 Oct 2016.
  21. 1 2 3 4 Grand baromètre: hausse spectaculaire du PTB, 3e parti francophone, 29 Sep 2016
  22. 1 2 3 Baromètre RTBF-La Libre: le PTB wallon triomphe
  23. 1 2 3 "Baromètre: Le PTB s'envole en Wallonie au détriment du PS, le CDH historiquement bas à Bruxelles". 9 Sep 2016.
  24. 1 2 3 4 Grand baromètre politique: le PTB devient le 3e parti de Wallonie, 18 May 2016.
  25. 1 2 3 "Baromètre politique: les partis de la majorité fédérale chutent, le Vlaams Belang progresse". 8 Apr 2016.
  26. 1 2 3 "Baromètre politique: La N-VA en chute libre, le MR résiste". 8 Apr 2016.
  27. ↑ "Peiling maart 2016". 15 Mar 2016.
  28. 1 2 3 4 lesoir.be (25 Jan 2016). "Baromètre politique: le PS reprend de l'avance sur le MR en Wallonie".
  29. 1 2 "Baromètre RTBF-La Libre: le Vlaams Belang aspire des électeurs N-VA". 11 Dec 2015.
  30. 1 2 lesoir.be. "Grand baromètre: le recul du PS continue à Bruxelles".
  31. ↑ "Peiling najaar 2015". 9 Oct 2015. Archived from the original on 17 September 2016. Retrieved 30 December 2016.
  32. 1 2 3 4 "Baromètre: sale temps pour les majorités". 18 Sep 2015.
  33. ↑ "Meerderheid houdt stand, oppositie breekt niet door". 8 May 2015.
  34. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Baromètre politique: la N-VA à nouveau en recul et le PS au plus bas". 13 Mar 2015.
  35. 1 2 3 4 lesoir.be. "Grand Baromètre: le PS boit la tasse".
  36. 1 2 "Baromètre politique: vers une vague verte le 26 mai?". RTBF Info (in French). 2019-04-24. Retrieved 2019-04-24.
  37. 1 2 "Qui sont les grands gagnants et grands perdants de notre baromètre politique ?". 27 Mar 2018.
  38. ↑ "Grand Baromètre: Ecolo progresse partout, le PS rebondit en Wallonie". 9 Mar 2018.
  39. 1 2 "Grand Baromètre: la Wallonie reste à gauche, PS et PTB prennent 40% des intentions de vote". 8 Sep 2017.
  40. 1 2 3 "DéFI devient le 2ème parti à Bruxelles, le cdH touche le fond partout". 7 Sep 2017.
  41. ↑ "Premier sondage exclusif depuis l'affaire Publifin: le PTB n'a jamais été aussi proche du PS et du MR!". sudinfo.be. 18 Feb 2017.
  42. ↑ "Grand Baromètre: à Bruxelles, le CDH atteint tout juste le seuil électoral". 9 Mar 2018.
  43. ↑ "De Grote Peiling: Socialisten opnieuw de grootste politieke familie". 18 May 2019.
  44. ↑ "De Wever schetst 'schrikbeeld' van Calvo in Wetstraat 16". 24 April 2019.
  45. ↑ "Grote peiling: groenen worden grootste fractie in parlement". February 2019.
  46. ↑ "Grote peiling: Regering haalt geen meerderheid meer". 8 Dec 2018.
  47. ↑ "Van dorpsstraat naar Wetstraat". November 2018.
  48. ↑ "Grote Peiling: N-VA blijft zakken, Groen behaalt beste score ooit". 4 Oct 2018.
  49. ↑ "De Grote Peiling: alle regeringspartijen verliezen zetels". 9 June 2018.
  50. ↑ "Une extrapolation en sièges du sondage @lesoir - @rtlinfo - IPSOS" . Retrieved 10 Dec 2017.
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