Opinion polling for the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election

Last updated

This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. Rating figures are in percentages.

Contents

Graphical summary

2024 Taiwanese presidential opinion pollings.svg
Local regression of polls conducted since 2023

Opinion poll data

After candidate registrations

PollsterFieldwork dateSample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP
Hou-Jaw
KMT
Ko-Wu
TPP
Others
Undecided
Lead
3 January 2024Publication of election polls forbidden until after the election. [1]
ETtoday 31 December 2023–1 January 20241,55738.9%35.8%22.4%2.8%3.1%
Mirror Media 30–31 December 20231,09935.6%24.1%24.2%16.2%11.4%
ETtoday 1,29535.4%33.4%22.1%3.1%2%
TVBS 30 December 20231,40733%30%24%13%3%
udn 26–30 December 20231,21532%27%21%20%5%
FTNN 26–29 December 20231,20035.8%27.3%22.1%14.8%8.5%
QuickseeK 1,28533.7%23.7%27.7%14.8%10%
RW News 25–29 December 202312,40936.89%32.83%28.64%1.63%4.06%
ETtoday 27–28 December 20231,74036.6%33.8%22.2%7.4%2.8%
TVBS 22–28 December 20231,07437%33%22%9%4%
SETN 26–27 December 20231,09530.9%27.9%23.8%17.5%3%
ETtoday 25–26 December 20231,61838.1%34.8%19.2%7.8%3.3%
Mirror Media 24–25 December 20231,08133.3%26.5%23.2%17.0%6.8%
CMMedia 23–25 December 20231,06629.5%22.7%27.8%20.1%1.7%
TPOF 22–24 December 20231,07632.4%28.2%24.6%14.8%4.2%
Formosa 20–21 December 20231,07038.2%33.9%16.1%11.7%4.3%
ETtoday 1,21736.2%34.8%20.7%8.2%1.4%
TVBS 15–21 December 20231,84033%32%24%11%1%
QuickseeK 17–20 December 20231,28832.5%27.2%26.7%13.6%5.3%
udn 13–17 December 20231,25031%31%21%17%Tie
Z.Media 15–16 December 20231,21331.4%29.6%20.5%18.5%1.8%
ETtoday 14–15 December 20231,30038.5%35.1%19.6%6.8%3.4%
SETN 11–12 December 20231,00034.7%28.8%21.2%15.3%5.9%
TVBS 5–12 December 20231,63236%32%22%9%4%
Mirror Media 10–11 December 20231,07533.5%25.2%23.7%17.5%8.3%
Formosa 27–28 November 20231,07636.6%30.5%17.7%15.3%6.1%
RW News 24–28 November 202312,04141.12%31.05%25.31%2.52%10.07%
TVBS 24–26 November 20231,74434%31%23%12%3%
udn 1,23831%29%21%20%2%
ETtoday 24 November 20231,34834.8%32.5%21.2%11.6%2.3%

Before candidate registrations

PollsterFieldwork dateSample size Lai
DPP
Hou
KMT
Ko
TPP
Gou
IND.
Others
Undecided
Lead
24 November 2023Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy. [2]
Formosa 24–25 October 20231,07032.5%21.9%20.4%5.3%19.9%10.6%
1,07033.7%24.6%23.9%17.8%9.1%
TVBS 18–24 October 20231,44733%22%24%8%14%11%
34%26%29%10%5%
TPOF 15–17 October 20231,08026.5%20.2%21.7%12.4%19.1%6.3%
1,08029.7%21.1%25.6%23.6%4.1%
Mirror Media 14–16 October 20231,07232.3%17.8%23.2%9.2%17.4%9.1%
1,07232.1%18.7%24.8%24.4%7.3%
SETN 1–3 October 20231,00030.9%17.8%24.2%11.6%15.5%6.7%
1,00032.2%20.0%26.8%21.1%5.4%
TVBS 22–26 September 20231,12734%21%22%9%14%12%
36%26%28%11%9%
Mirror Media 23–24 September 20231,09634.5%16.5%24.1%8.5%16.3%10.4%
1,09633.3%16.4%28.0%22.3%5.3%
FTNN 19–24 September 20232,40234.3%16.3%18.6%9.1%21.7%12.6%
FTNN 2,40234.9%16.8%20.8%27.5%7.4%
CMMedia 18–22 September 20231,21327.9%12.6%22.4%12.5%24.6%3.3%
Formosa 20–21 September 20231,07237.3%19.7%16.9%7.4%18.7%17.6%
1,07240.0%22.4%21.6%15.9%17.6%
TPOF 18–20 September 20231,07731.4%15.7%23.1%10.5%19.4%8.3%
1,07733.4%17.2%27.4%22.1%6%
TVBS 28 August – 1 September 20231,27330%19%23%14%13%7%
28 August 2023Terry Gou declares his candidacy. [3]
Mirror Media 27–28 August 20231,08333.4%15.3%22.7%12.9%15.7%10.7%
1,08334.3%16.2%27.1%22.4%7.2%
Formosa 23–24 August 20231,07040.1%15.6%16.6%12.0%15.8%23.5%
1,07042.5%17.0%21.1%19.3%21.4%
TVBS 21–24 August 20231,17137%22%28%13%9%
QuickseeK 17–21 August 20231,22235.6%16.2%24.4%12.4%11.4%11.2%
1,22235.8%17.9%29.6%16.6%6.2%
TPOF 14–15 August 20231,08143.4%13.6%26.6%16.3%16.8%
FTNN 9–13 August 20232,40231.2%14.8%19.5%11.8%22.7%8.5%
2,40233.4%15.9%23.2%27.4%6%
TVBS 24–26 July 20231,61833%25%32%10%1%
Formosa 24–25 July 20231,07133.1%17.3%20.7%12.8%16.1%12.4%
1,07135.1%19.9%24.0%20.4%11.1%
1,07133.8%17.4%30.7% [4] 18.1%3.1%
TPOF 17–18 July 20231,08836.4%20.2%27.8%15.7%8.6%
TPOF 1,08833.9%18.0%20.5%15.2%12.4%13.4%
FTNN 11–16 July 20232,40928.0%12.4%20.4%14.4%24.8%3.2%
FTNN 2,40930.2%15.3%25.4%29.1%1.1%
QuickseeK 7–10 July 20231,17834.8%19.3%30.8%15.0%4%
1,17832.8%27.7%24.5%15.0%5.1%
1,17833.8%17.0%35.6% [4] 13.6%1.8%
Z.Media 1–2 July 20231,07929.8%15.2%24.4%14.0%16.2%5.4%
1,07932.0%16.3%35.8% [4] 15.5%3.8%
1,07929.9%16.0%29.8%23.8%0.1%
NCPF 30 June – 2 July 20231,07531%15%19%15%20%11%
1,07534%17%25%24%9%
CNEWS 28 June – 1 July 20231,81629.3%18.5%30.8%21.4%1.5%
Formosa 28–29 June 20231,07033.3%15.6%20.9%15.4%14.8%12.4%
1,07035.9%17.1%28.6%18.4%7.3%
BCC-Gallup 16–20 June 20231,08331.89%17.93%24.62%21.97%7.28%
TVBS 14–16 June 20231,08030%23%33%14%3%
TPOF 12–13 June 20231,08036.5%20.4%29.1%14.0%7.4%
CNEWS 31 May – 1 June 20231,07735.7%25.9%24.9%13.5%9.8%
Formosa 29–30 May 20231,07235.4%22.6%25.5%16.5%9.9%
Formosa 24–25 May 20231,07235.8%18.3%25.9%20%9.9%
NCPF 22–24 May 20231,08234%23%23%20%11%
Fount Media 22–23 May 20231,07426.6%24.7%21.1%27.6%1.9%
SETN 17–18 May 20231,08029.8%29.2%20.8%20.2%0.6%
TVBS 17–18 May 20231,44427%30%23%20%3%

Issue polling

PollsterFieldwork dateSample problemSample size Lai
DPP
Hou
KMT
Ko
TPP
Gou
IND.
Others
Undecided
Lead
ETtoday 10–16 October 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,58234.7%27.4%25.5%12.3%7.3%
RW News 10–14 October 2023Online questionnaire backfill11,05542.62%22.29%24.93%5.86%4.30%17.69%
11,05542.85%22.87%26.09%8.20%16.76%
udn 22–25 September 2023No raw data1,08230%20%21%30%Tie
ETtoday 23–24 September 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,36832.0%24.5%20.7%13.2%9.6%7.4%
RW News 12–16 September 2023Online questionnaire backfill10,84642.52%22.25%24.23%6.58%4.41%18.29%
KPoint Survey & Research 12–14 September 2023No raw data1,07329.4%18.4%16.7%14.0%21.5%7.9%
1,07329.2%21.5%19.6%29.7%0.5%
ETtoday 8–9 September 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,33735.1%24.8%20.0%12.9%7.2%10.3%
1,33736.5%29.5%22.9%11.0%7%
ETtoday 29–30 August 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,49535.3%21.4%17.6%17.2%8.4%13.9%
ETtoday 18–20 August 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,20735.4%25.6%24.2%14.9%9.8%
RW News 15–19 August 2023Online questionnaire backfill11,32440.56%22.16%23.13%8.96%5.18%17.43%
RW News 11,32440.99%22.79%25.80%10.12%15.19%
ETtoday 15–17 August 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,23531.7%18.6%17.5%10.2%22.0%9.7%
KPoint Survey & Research 31 July – 2 August 2023No raw data1,07530.3%15.1%18.2%14.8%21.6%8.7%
1,07532.3%15.8%23.1%28.8%3.5%
Newtalk 31 July – 1 August 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,40230.46%16.92%24.71%17.34%10.58%5.75%
1,40229.46%26.23%26.31%18.0%3.15%
Newtalk 1,40233.5%21.4%29.57%15.53%3.93%
ETtoday 28–30 July 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,75333.4%21.0%21.6%16.4%7.7%11.8%
ETtoday 1,75335.6%24.3%28.8%11.3%6.8%
TISR 19–20 July 2023No raw data1,06829.0%13.2%17.7%10.7%4.0%11.3%
1,06833.8%15.6%24.9%6.0%8.9%
RW News 12–16 July 2023Online questionnaire backfill12,46438.23%20.39%25.29%9.22%6.87%12.94%
RW News 12,46438.48%21.29%28.34%11.89%10.14%
ACEL 10–12 July 2023No raw data1,00333.6%14.8%21.1%12.5%18.0%15.6%
1,00332.4%17.6%25.9%24.1%6.5%
ERA NEWS 3–6 July 2023No raw data1,07034.9%14.5%19.2%14.6%16.8%15.7%
1,07035.5%17.2%24.2%23.1%11.3%
Newtalk 30 June – 1 July 2023Member mobile SMS backfill3,24528.26%14.63%21.94%22.29%12.89%5.97%
3,24528.49%24.07%28.77%18.67%0.28%
Newtalk 1,07032.77%21.31%30.74%15.19%2.03%
RW News 6–10 June 2023Online questionnaire backfill12,03037.8%21.9%31.3%9.1%6.5%
KPoint Survey & Research 6–9 June 2023No raw data1,07631.2%17.9%21.5%29.4%1.8%
ETtoday 23–25 May 2023Member mobile SMS backfill1,22336.4%27.7%23.1%12.8%8.7%
udn 18–21 May 2023No raw data1,09028%24%22%27%1%

Formosa daily poll

NumberFieldwork dateSample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP
Hou-Jaw
KMT
Ko-Wu
TPP
Others
Undecided
Lead
101 27–29 December 20231,25339.6%28.5%18.9%13.0%11.1%
100 26–28 December 20231,32640.2%28.7%18.4%12.8%11.5%
99 25–27 December 20231,20140.0%28.9%17.6%13.5%11.1%
98 22, 25–26 December 20231,20138.7%29.7%16.6%15.0%9%
97 21–22, 25 December 20231,34938.9%29.4%17.2%14.4%9.5%
96 20–22 December 20231,47037.5%32.6%16.3%13.6%4.9%
95 19–21 December 20231,47037.3%33.4%17.7%11.6%3.9%
94 18–20 December 20231,32236.3%32.8%17.7%13.6%3.5%
93 15, 18–19 December 20231,20135.2%30.6%19.6%14.6%4.6%
92 14–15, 18 December 20231,20135.0%31.7%18.2%15.1%3.3%
91 13–15 December 20231,20135.2%32.1%19.7%13.0%3.1%
90 12–14 December 20231,20135.7%31.7%18.6%14.0%4%
89 11–13 December 20231,20135.2%29.5%19.0%16.3%5.7%
88 8, 11–12 December 20231,20134.7%31.2%16.8%17.3%3.5%
87 7–8, 11 December 20231,20135.1%32.5%17.0%15.4%2.6%
86 6–8 December 20231,20137.8%32.6%17.3%12.3%5.6%
85 5–7 December 20231,20140.5%30.8%16.3%12.5%9.7%
84 4–6 December 20231,20140.1%31.6%14.8%15.5%8.5%
83 1, 4–5 December 20231,20138.3%31.4%14.8%15.4%6.9%
82 30 November–1, 4 December 20231,20138.0%31.7%14.9%15.4%6.3%
81 29 November–1 December 20231,20137.8%29.5%17.7%15.0%8.3%
80 28–30 November 20231,34837.1%30.5%17.5%14.9%6.6%
78 24, 27–28 November 20231,47636.3%31.0%18.0%14.7%5.3%

CNEWS weekly poll

Sample WeekFieldwork dateSample methodSample size Lai
DPP
Hou
KMT
Ko
TPP
Gou
IND.
Others
Undecided
Lead
1st week of December 30 November – 1 December 2023local phone + mobile phone2,00836.9%28.0%26.0%9.1%8.9%
local phone1,00037.1%32.9%17.4%12.6%4.2%
4th week of November 24 – 25 November 2023local phone + mobile phone2,01336.8%26.6%26.8%9.8%10%
local phone1,00039.9%29.7%18.9%11.5%10.2%
24 November 2023Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy. [2]
2nd week of November 10 – 11 November 2023local phone + mobile phone2,04630.8%18.0%26.0%9.3%15.9%4.8%
local phone1,03333.9%22.2%22.4%7.3%14.2%11.5%
1st week of November 4 – 5 November 2023local phone + mobile phone2,00032.7%17.3%25.8%10.0%14.2%6.9%
local phone1,00034.7%20.9%19.7%9.9%14.8%13.8%
5th week of October 29 – 30 October 2023local phone + mobile phone2,04925.6%16.0%25.4%13.3%19.7%0.2%
local phone1,01229.1%18.2%20.4%10.8%21.5%8.7%
4th week of October 21 – 22 October 2023local phone + mobile phone2,04824.0%16.2%24.7%15.8%19.3%0.7%
local phone1,03427.6%19.1%19.7%14.1%19.5%7.9%
3rd week of October 13 – 14 October 2023local phone + mobile phone2,06229.7%16.2%27.7%11.7%14.7%2%
local phone1,05134.8%19.6%20.4%8.9%16.3%14.4%
2nd week of October 7 – 8 October 2023local phone + mobile phone2,04531.6%17.0%26.7%11.2%13.5%4.9%
local phone1,03036.0%17.8%20.4%9.1%16.7%15.6%
1st week of October 29 – 30 September 2023local phone + mobile phone2,03728.6%16.9%24.3%12.3%17.9%4.3%
local phone1,03031.5%17.8%19.8%10.2%20.7%10.8%
4th week of September 23 – 24 September 2023local phone + mobile phone2,01627.3%14.2%23.7%14.2%20.6%3.6%
local phone1,01332.6%14.8%18.9%12.3%20.4%12.2%

3rd week of September

15 – 16 September 2023local phone + mobile phone2,05228.0%16.3%22.6%13.7%19.4%5.4%
local phone1,02529.7%20.8%16.7%14.1%18.7%8.9%
2nd week of September 9 – 10 September 2023local phone + mobile phone2,14528.4%15.6%23.4%13.0%19.6%5%
local phone1,12731.5%16.1%18.9%10.6%22.9%8.6%
1st week of September 1 – 2 September 2023local phone + mobile phone2,02429.7%14.8%23.4%12.6%19.5%6.3%
local phone1,00835.4%15.1%16.7%10.7%22.1%13.3%
Note
  • Taiwan CNEWS believes that the different survey methods of each media have led to huge differences in results, and decided to continue to publish presidential election polls starting in September 2023.
  • The survey method is 50% local phone and 50% mobile phone. The number of samples is more than 2,000. In addition, more than 1,000 local phone survey results are simultaneously calculated.

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The 2023 Democratic Progressive Party chairmanship election was held on 15 January 2023 to elect the new chairperson of the party. Vice President William Lai was unopposed and elected to succeed President Tsai Ing-wen, who resigned after the party's poor showing in the 2022 local elections.

References

  1. Smith, Courtney Donovan (2024-01-02). "Final Taiwan News Poll of Polls, Jan 2". Taiwan News. Retrieved 2024-01-06.
  2. 1 2 Teng, Pei-ju (24 November 2023). "ELECTION 2024/Business tycoon Terry Gou drops out of presidential race". Central News Agency. Retrieved 24 November 2023.
  3. Blanchard, Ben; Lee, Yimou; Lee, Yimou (2023-08-28). "Foxconn founder Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  4. 1 2 3 Ko as VP.