Predict (USAID)

Last updated
Predict
Project typeEpidemiological research
Funding agencyUnited States Agency for International Development
ObjectiveEarly warning pandemic system
Project coordinator One Health Institute
Partners EcoHealth Alliance
Metabiota
Wildlife Conservation Society
Smithsonian Institution
Budget
  • Funding: $200 million
Duration2009 – 2020
Website ohi.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/programs-projects/predict-project

Predict was an epidemiological research program funded by a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) grant and led by UC Davis' One Health Institute. Launched in 2009, the program was described as an early warning pandemic system. [1]

Contents

Operations

Predict was launched in 2009 in response to the influenza A virus subtype H5N1 "bird flu" outbreak in 2005. It was designed and overseen by Dennis Carroll, then the director of the USAID emerging threats division, [2] with epidemiologist Jonna Mazet of the University of California, Davis, as its global director. [3] The program was one of four projects within USAID's Emerging Pandemic Threats program, the others being Respond, Identify, and Prevent. [4]

From 2009 to 2019, Predict collected more than 140,000 biological samples from various animals (potential reservoirs) [2] including over 10,000 bats and 2,000 other mammals. [5] Research teams of epidemiologists and wildlife veterinarians identified some 1,200 viruses with the potential to cause human disease and pandemics, including over 160 novel coronaviruses. [5] The virus-hunting focused on "hot interfaces"—areas with high biodiversity, dense human populations, and environmental conditions are conducive to the spread of disease, [1] and where human-animal interaction is high. [5] Predict worked in regions including the Amazon Basin, South and Southeast Asia, and the Congo Basin. [1]

The approach of virus hunting by Predict and other agencies has been criticized as ineffective in comparison to human surveillance as a way to prevent pandemics. One virologist noted that cataloguing viruses was not enough, as spillover infections are often unexpected and difficult to predict. Also, viruses mutate quickly, making some die out while others can mutate to new hosts. [3]

Efforts by Predict resulted in the discovery of a new kind of Ebolavirus , Bombali ebolavirus . [6]

Predict partnered with EcoHealth Alliance for its work. [3]

Funding and closure

Predict operated on five-year funding cycles, [5] receiving about $200 million over the course of its decade in operation. [7] Fieldwork ceased at the end of September 2019 after funding ran out, and the program was ended in March 2020 by the Trump administration, [8] [5] which has also cut funding for other global health security programs. [5]

In February 2020, Senators Angus King and Elizabeth Warren criticized the shutdown of Predict, writing in a letter: "The rise of 2019-nCoV heightens the need for a robust, coordinated, and proactive response to emerging pandemics – one of the roles that PREDICT played." The senators wrote that the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (which is caused by 2019-nCoV) "threatens public health in the U.S. and abroad" and said that programs like Predict should be ramping up rather than shutting down. [9] [7]

On April 1, 2020, following the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, USAID granted $2.26 million to the program for a six-month emergency extension; [5] [8] the UC Davis announcement said that the extension would support "detection of SARS CoV-2 cases in Africa, Asia and the Middle East to inform the public health response" and investigation of "the animal source or sources of SARS CoV-2 using data and samples collected over the past 10 years in Asia and Southeast Asia". [8]

See also

Related Research Articles

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A zoonosis or zoonotic disease is an infectious disease of humans caused by a pathogen that can jump from a non-human to a human and vice versa.

The University of California, Davis, School of Veterinary Medicine is the largest veterinary school in the United States. Established in 1948, the school is the primary health resource for California's various animal populations. In 2020, the school was again ranked No. 1 in the United States by U.S. News & World Report and in 2022, ranked No. 2 in the world by QS World University Rankings. The school is located in the southwest corner of the main campus of the University of California, Davis. The current Dean of Veterinary Medicine is Dr. Mark Stetter.

EcoHealth Alliance is a US-based non-governmental organization with a stated mission of protecting people, animals, and the environment from emerging infectious diseases. The nonprofit focuses on research aimed at preventing pandemics and promoting conservation in hotspot regions worldwide.

An emergent virus is a virus that is either newly appeared, notably increasing in incidence/geographic range or has the potential to increase in the near future. Emergent viruses are a leading cause of emerging infectious diseases and raise public health challenges globally, given their potential to cause outbreaks of disease which can lead to epidemics and pandemics. As well as causing disease, emergent viruses can also have severe economic implications. Recent examples include the SARS-related coronaviruses, which have caused the 2002-2004 outbreak of SARS (SARS-CoV-1) and the 2019–21 pandemic of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Other examples include the human immunodeficiency virus which causes HIV/AIDS; the viruses responsible for Ebola; the H5N1 influenza virus responsible for avian flu; and H1N1/09, which caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic. Viral emergence in humans is often a consequence of zoonosis, which involves a cross-species jump of a viral disease into humans from other animals. As zoonotic viruses exist in animal reservoirs, they are much more difficult to eradicate and can therefore establish persistent infections in human populations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">W. Ian Lipkin</span> Professor, microbiologist, epidemiologist

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Emerging Pathogens Institute</span>

The Emerging Pathogens Institute (EPI) is an interdisciplinary research institution associated with the University of Florida. The institute focuses on fusing key disciplines to develop outreach, education, and research capabilities designed to preserve the region's health and economy, as well as to prevent or contain new and re-emerging diseases. Researchers within the institute work in more than 30 different countries around the world, with over 250 affiliated faculty members stemming from 11 University of Florida colleges, centers, and institutes. The 90,000-square-foot building includes laboratories and collaborative space for bioinformatics and mathematical modeling.

The One Health Institute works at the interface of animals, people, plants, and the environment to solve complex problems that impact health and conservation around the world. The institute is part of the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine and is home to the Karen C. Drayer Wildlife Health Center and many other programs and projects. The executive director of the One Health Institute is Dr. Michael Ziccardi. The One Health approach recognizes that the health of domestic animals, wildlife, and people are inextricably linked to one another and the environment.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jonna Mazet</span> American epidemiologist

Jonna Ann Keener Mazet is an American epidemiologist and Executive Director of the University of California, Davis One Health Institute. Recognized for her innovative and holistic approach to emerging environmental and global health threats, she is an elected member of the National Academy of Medicine and a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Mazet is a professor of Epidemiology and Disease Ecology at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, where she focuses on global health problem solving, especially for emerging infectious disease and conservation challenges.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">SARS-CoV-2</span> Virus that causes COVID-19

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2020</span> Act of the US Congress enacted on March 6, 2020

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Johnson, Jeanne (n.d.). "The Virus Hunters -- Tracking Down the Next HIV". Association of American Veterinary Medicine Colleges. Archived from the original on 2020-03-14. Retrieved 2020-03-16.
  2. 1 2 McNeil Jr., Donald G. (25 October 2019). "Scientists Were Hunting for the Next Ebola. Now the U.S. Has Cut Off Their Funding". The New York Times. Retrieved 16 March 2020.
  3. 1 2 3 Morrison, Jim (25 January 2018). "Can Virus Hunters Stop the Next Pandemic Before It Happens?". Smithsonian . Retrieved 16 March 2020.
  4. Predict , EcoHealth Alliance (last accessed April 7, 2020).
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Emily Baumgaertner & James Rainey, Trump administration ended coronavirus detection program, Los Angeles Times (April 2, 2020).
  6. Cima, Greg (15 January 2020). "Pandemic prevention program ending after 10 years". JAVMA News. American Veterinary Medical Association. Retrieved 16 March 2020.
  7. 1 2 Schmidt, Charles (2020-04-03). "Why the Coronavirus Slipped Past Disease Detectives". Scientific American. Retrieved 2020-04-06.
  8. 1 2 3 Zachary Cohen, Trump administration shuttered pandemic monitoring program, then scrambled to extend it, CNN (April 10, 2020).
  9. "Letter from Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Angus S. King, Jr., to USAID Administrator Mark Green" (PDF). January 30, 2020.

Further reading