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For a thermal power plant project, a project finance model's input typically looks as follows:
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A project finance model is a specialized financial model, the purpose of which is to assess the economic feasibility of the project in question. The model's output can also be used in structuring, or "sculpting", the project finance deal.
Project finance is the long-term financing of infrastructure and industrial projects based upon the projected cash flows of the project - rather than the balance sheets of its sponsors. The project is therefore only feasible when the project is capable of producing enough cash to cover all operating and debt-servicing expenses over the whole tenor of the debt.
Most importantly, therefore, the model is used to determine the maximum amount of debt the project company (Special-purpose entity) can maintain - and the corresponding debt repayment profile; there are several related metrics here, the most important of which is arguably the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) - the financial metric that measures the ability of a project to generate enough cash flow to cover principal and interest payments.
The general structure of any financial model is standard: (i) input (ii) calculation algorithm (iii) output; see Financial forecast. While the output for a project finance model is more or less uniform, and the calculation is predetermined by accounting rules, the input is highly project-specific. [1] Generally, the model can be subdivided into the following categories:
A model is usually built for a most probable (or base) case. Then, a model sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine effects of changes in input variables on key outputs, such as internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV) and payback period.
For discussion (a) re cash-flow modelling, see Valuation using discounted cash flows § Determine cash flow for each forecast period; and (b) re model "calibration", and sensitivity- and scenario analysis, see § Determine equity value there.
Practically, these are usually built as Excel spreadsheets and then consist of the following interlinked sheets (see Outline of finance § Financial modeling for further model-build items), with broad groupings:
As stated above, the model is used to determine the most appropriate amount of debt the project company should take: in any year the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) should not exceed a predetermined level. DSCR is also used as a measure of riskiness of the project and, therefore, as a determinant of interest rate on debt. Minimal DSCR set for a project depends on riskiness of the project, i.e. on predictability and stability of cash flow generated by it.
Related to this is the Project life cover ratio (PLCR), the ratio of the net present value of the cash flow over the remaining full life of the project to the outstanding debt balance in the period. It is a measure of the number of times the cash flow over the life of the project can repay the outstanding debt balance. The Loan life cover ratio (LLCR), similarly is the ratio of the net present value of the cash flow over the scheduled life of the loan to the outstanding debt balance in the period. Other ratios of this sort include:
Standard profitability metrics are also considered - most commonly, Internal rate of return (IRR), Return on assets (ROA), and Return on equity (ROE)
Debt sculpting is common in the financial modelling of a project. It means that the principal repayment obligations have been calculated to ensure that the principal and interest obligations are appropriately matched to the strength and pattern of the cashflows in each period. The most common ways to do so are to manually adjust the principal repayment in each period, or to algebraically solve the principal repayment to achieve a desired DSCR.
The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, in financial analysis, is a method used to value a security, project, company, or asset, that incorporates the time value of money. Discounted cash flow analysis is widely used in investment finance, real estate development, corporate financial management, and patent valuation. Used in industry as early as the 1700s or 1800s, it was widely discussed in financial economics in the 1960s, and U.S. courts began employing the concept in the 1980s and 1990s.
Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements ; health; and competitors and markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management. There are two basic approaches that can be used: bottom up analysis and top down analysis. These terms are used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative and technical.
Cash flow, in general, refers to payments made into or out of a business, project, or financial product. It can also refer more specifically to a real or virtual movement of money.
The net present value (NPV) or net present worth (NPW) applies to a series of cash flows occurring at different times. The present value of a cash flow depends on the interval of time between now and the cash flow. It also depends on the annual effective discount rate. NPV accounts for the time value of money. It provides a method for evaluating and comparing capital projects or financial products with cash flows spread over time, as in loans, investments, payouts from insurance contracts plus many other applications.
Internal rate of return (IRR) is a method of quantifying the merits of a project or investment opportunity. The calculation is termed internal because it depends only on the cash flows of the investment being analyzed and excludes external factors, such as returns available elsewhere, the risk-free rate, inflation, the cost of capital, or financial risk.
In finance, valuation is the process of determining the value of a (potential) investment, asset, or security. Generally, there are three approaches taken, namely discounted cashflow valuation, relative valuation, and contingent claim valuation.
In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will overall rise in value, while overvalued stocks will generally decrease in value. A target price is a price at which an analyst believes a stock to be fairly valued relative to its projected and historical earnings.
In financial accounting, free cash flow (FCF) or free cash flow to firm (FCFF) is the amount by which a business's operating cash flow exceeds its working capital needs and expenditures on fixed assets. It is that portion of cash flow that can be extracted from a company and distributed to creditors and securities holders without causing issues in its operations. As such, it is an indicator of a company's financial flexibility and is of interest to holders of the company's equity, debt, preferred stock and convertible securities, as well as potential lenders and investors.
A financial analyst is a professional, undertaking financial analysis for external or internal clients as a core feature of the job. The role may specifically be titled securities analyst, research analyst, equity analyst, investment analyst, or ratings analyst. The job title is a broad one: in banking, and industry more generally, various other analyst-roles cover financial management and (credit) risk management, as opposed to focusing on investments and valuation; these are also discussed in this article.
Enterprise value (EV), total enterprise value (TEV), or firm value (FV) is an economic measure reflecting the market value of a business. It is a sum of claims by all claimants: creditors and shareholders. Enterprise value is one of the fundamental metrics used in business valuation, financial analysis, accounting, portfolio analysis, and risk analysis.
Capital budgeting in corporate finance, corporate planning and accounting is an area of capital management that concerns the planning process used to determine whether an organization's long term capital investments such as new machinery, replacement of machinery, new plants, new products, and research development projects are worth the funding of cash through the firm's capitalization structures. It is the process of allocating resources for major capital, or investment, expenditures. An underlying goal, consistent with the overall approach in corporate finance, is to increase the value of the firm to the shareholders.
Financial modeling is the task of building an abstract representation of a real world financial situation. This is a mathematical model designed to represent the performance of a financial asset or portfolio of a business, project, or any other investment.
Valuation using discounted cash flows is a method of estimating the current value of a company based on projected future cash flows adjusted for the time value of money. The cash flows are made up of those within the “explicit” forecast period, together with a continuing or terminal value that represents the cash flow stream after the forecast period. In several contexts, DCF valuation is referred to as the "income approach".
In economics, valuation using multiples, or "relative valuation", is a process that consists of:
The debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), also known as "debt coverage ratio" (DCR), is a financial metric used to assess an entity's ability to generate enough cash to cover its debt service obligations. These obligations include interest, principal, and lease payments. The DSCR is calculated by dividing the operating income available for debt service by the total amount of debt service due.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to finance:
Cash flow forecasting is the process of obtaining an estimate of a company's future cash levels, and its financial position more generally. A cash flow forecast is a key financial management tool, both for large corporates, and for smaller entrepreneurial businesses. The forecast is typically based on anticipated payments and receivables. Several forecasting methodologies are available.
Credit analysis is the method by which one calculates the creditworthiness of a business or organization. In other words, It is the evaluation of the ability of a company to honor its financial obligations. The audited financial statements of a large company might be analyzed when it issues or has issued bonds. Or, a bank may analyze the financial statements of a small business before making or renewing a commercial loan. The term refers to either case, whether the business is large or small. A credit analyst is the finance professional undertaking this role.
Corporate finance is the area of finance that deals with the sources of funding, and the capital structure of corporations, the actions that managers take to increase the value of the firm to the shareholders, and the tools and analysis used to allocate financial resources. The primary goal of corporate finance is to maximize or increase shareholder value.
In corporate finance, free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is a metric of how much cash can be distributed to the equity shareholders of the company as dividends or stock buybacks—after all expenses, reinvestments, and debt repayments are taken care of. It is also referred to as the levered free cash flow or the flow to equity (FTE). Whereas dividends are the cash flows actually paid to shareholders, the FCFE is the cash flow simply available to shareholders. The FCFE is usually calculated as a part of DCF or LBO modelling and valuation.