Projected National Share (PNS) is a statistic used in British politics. It refers to the translation of local election results to reflect national party support in a future general election. [1] PNS shows which party has won a local election. [2] The numbers give an impression of how the political parties are faring if the entire country cast a local ballot. [3] It can be calculated in different ways. [4]
BBC News has calculated PNS since 1982. [5] They use key wards which are reflective of the country as a whole in order to calculate party share. [6] Two academics at the University of Plymouth, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, calculate National Equivalent share (NEV) using a different approach. [7] [8]
Author and peer Mark Pack maintains a historical record named LocalBase of both sets of results. [7] [9]
| Election | Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Other* | UKIP | Ref | Grn | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31 | 30 | 15 | — | 12 | — | — | [10] |
| 2022 | 35 | 30 | 19 | 16 | — | — | — | [11] |
| 2023 | 35 | 26 | 20 | 19 | — | — | — | [12] |
| 2024 | 34 | 25 | 17 | 24 | — | — | — | [13] |
| 2025 | 20 | 15 | 17 | 7 | — | 30 | 11 | [14] [15] |
*Independents, residents associations and minor parties