Random two-sided matching

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A random two-sided matching is a process by which members of two groups are matched to each other in a random way. It is often used in sports in order to match teams in knock-out tournaments. In this context, it is often called a draw, as it is implemented by drawing balls at random from a bowl, each ball representing the name of a team.

Contents

Examples

The UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Conference League draw

A random two-sided matching occurs in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 and UEFA Europa League Round of 32. [1] [2] After some games are done within 8 groups, the group winner and the group runner-up proceed to the champions league. The UEFA rules say that each winner should be paired with a runner-up. Without further constraints, this problem could easily be solved by finding a random permutation of the winners. But UEFA rules impose two additional constraints: two teams from the same group cannot be paired, and two teams from the same association cannot be paired. Thus, the goal is to choose a random matching in an incomplete bipartite graph.

The UEFA mechanism makes several draws from different bowls. At the beginning, there are:

The draw proceeds as follows:

This procedure yields probabilities that are different than just choosing a matching at random; this creates a distortion in the matching probalities of different groups, which raises suspicion and conspiracy theories. [1] [2]

The FIFA draw

Another two-sided matching occurs in the FIFA World Cup. [3] [4] First, the runners-up are drawn in a random order. Then, each winner in turn is drawn, and it is matched to the first runner-up in the order, to which it can be matched according to the constraints.

This draw, too, produces distorted probabilities relative to the uniform-random matching. [3] [4]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Klößner, Stefan; Becker, Martin (2013-09-01). "Odd odds: The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw" . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. 9 (3): 249–270. doi:10.1515/jqas-2013-0016. ISSN   1559-0410.
  2. 1 2 Boczoń, Marta; Wilson, Alistair J. (2023-06-01). "Goals, Constraints, and Transparently Fair Assignments: A Field Study of Randomization Design in the UEFA Champions League" . Management Science. 69 (6): 3474–3491. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.4528. ISSN   0025-1909.
  3. 1 2 Csató, László (2025), "The fairness of the group draw for the FIFA World Cup", International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 20 (2): 554–567, arXiv: 2103.11353 , doi:10.1177/17479541241300219
  4. 1 2 Roberts, Gareth O.; Rosenthal, Jeffrey S. (2023-01-25), Football Group Draw Probabilities and Corrections, arXiv: 2205.06578