The Rohn emergency scale [1] is a scale on which the magnitude (intensity) [2] of an emergency is measured. It was first proposed in 2006, and explained in more detail in a peer-reviewed paper presented at a 2007 system sciences conference. [3] The idea was further refined later that year. [4] The need for such a scale was ratified in two later independent publications. [5] [6] It is the first scale that quantifies any emergency based on a mathematical model. The scale can be tailored for use at any geographic level – city, county, state or continent. It can be used to monitor the development of an ongoing emergency event, as well as forecast the probability and nature of a potential developing emergency and in the planning and execution of a National Response Plan.
Scales relating to natural phenomena that may result in an emergency are numerous. This section provides a review of several notable emergency related scales. They concentrate mainly on weather and environmental scales that provide a common understanding and lexicon with which to understand the level of intensity and impact of a crisis. Some scales are used before and/or during a crisis to predict the potential intensity and impact of an event and provide an understanding that is useful for preventative and recovery measures. Other scales are used for post-event classification. Most of these scales are descriptive rather than quantitative, which makes them subjective and ambiguous.
According to the Rohn emergency scale, all emergencies can be described by three independent dimensions: (a) scope; (b) topographical change (or lack thereof); and (c) speed of change. The intersection of the three dimensions provides a detailed scale for defining any emergency, [1] as depicted on the Emergency Scale Website. [15]
The scope of an emergency in the Rohn scale is represented as a continuous variable with a lower limit of zero and a theoretical calculable upper limit. The Rohn Emergency Scale use two parameters that form the scope: percent of affected humans out of the entire population, and damages, or loss, as a percentage of a given gross national product (GNP). Where applied to a specific locality, this parameter may be represented by a gross state product, gross regional product, or any similar measure of economic activity appropriate to the entity under emergency.
A topographical change means a measurable and noticeable change in land characteristics, in terms of elevation, slope, orientation, and land coverage. These could be either natural (e.g., trees) or artificial (e.g., houses). Non-topographical emergencies are situations where the emergency is non-physical in nature. The collapse of the New York stock market in 1929 is such an example, and the global liquidity crisis of August 2007 [16] is another example. The model treats topographical change as a continuum ranging between 0 and 1 that gives the estimated visual fractional change in the environment.
An emergency is typified by a departure from normal state of affairs. The scale uses the change of the number of victims over time and economical losses over time to calculate a rate of change that is of utmost importance to society (e.g., life and a proxy for quality of life).
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The scale is a normalized function whose variables are scope (S), topography (T), and rate of change (D), expressed as
These parameters are defined as follows:
The model loosely assumes that a society whose majority of the population (70% in this model) is affected and half of its GNP is drained as a result of a calamity reaches a breaking point of disintegration. Sociologists and economists may come up with a better estimate.
comprise the rate of change that is of utmost importance to society and therefore incorporated in the model.
In some instances, it may be preferable to have an integral scale to more simply and dramatically convey the extent of an emergency, with a range, say, from 1 to 10, and 10 representing the direst emergency. This can be obtained from the function above in any number of ways. One of them is the ceiling function [ clarification needed ]. Another one is a single number representing the volume under the 3D emergency scale.
The Modified Mercalli intensity scale, developed from Giuseppe Mercalli's Mercalli intensity scale of 1902, is a seismic intensity scale used for measuring the intensity of shaking produced by an earthquake. It measures the effects of an earthquake at a given location, distinguished from the earthquake's inherent force or strength as measured by seismic magnitude scales. While shaking is caused by the seismic energy released by an earthquake, earthquakes differ in how much of their energy is radiated as seismic waves. Deeper earthquakes also have less interaction with the surface, and their energy is spread out across a larger area. Shaking intensity is localized, generally diminishing with distance from the earthquake's epicenter, but can be amplified in sedimentary basins and certain kinds of unconsolidated soils.
A tsunami is a series of waves in a water body caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean or a large lake. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other underwater explosions above or below water all have the potential to generate a tsunami. Unlike normal ocean waves, which are generated by wind, or tides, which are generated by the gravitational pull of the Moon and the Sun, a tsunami is generated by the displacement of water.
The neper is a logarithmic unit for ratios of measurements of physical field and power quantities, such as gain and loss of electronic signals. The unit's name is derived from the name of John Napier, the inventor of logarithms. As is the case for the decibel and bel, the neper is a unit defined in the international standard ISO 80000. It is not part of the International System of Units (SI), but is accepted for use alongside the SI.
The Pareto distribution, named after the Italian civil engineer, economist, and sociologist Vilfredo Pareto, is a power-law probability distribution that is used in description of social, scientific, geophysical, actuarial, and many other types of observable phenomena. Originally applied to describing the distribution of wealth in a society, fitting the trend that a large portion of wealth is held by a small fraction of the population, the Pareto distribution has colloquially become known and referred to as the Pareto principle, or "80-20 rule", and is sometimes called the "Matthew principle". This rule states that, for example, 80% of the wealth of a society is held by 20% of its population. However, one should not conflate the Pareto distribution with the Pareto Principle as the former only produces this result for a particular power value, (α = log45 ≈ 1.16). While is parameter, empirical observation has found the 80-20 distribution to fit a wide range of cases, including natural phenomena and human activities.
In mathematics, Stirling's approximation is an approximation for factorials. It is a good approximation, leading to accurate results even for small values of n. It is named after James Stirling, though it was first stated by Abraham de Moivre.
The Fujita scale, or Fujita–Pearson scale, is a scale for rating tornado intensity, based primarily on the damage tornadoes inflict on human-built structures and vegetation. The official Fujita scale category is determined by meteorologists and engineers after a ground or aerial damage survey, or both; and depending on the circumstances, ground-swirl patterns, weather radar data, witness testimonies, media reports and damage imagery, as well as photogrammetry or videogrammetry if motion picture recording is available. The Fujita scale was replaced with the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF-Scale) in the United States in February 2007. In April 2013, Canada adopted the EF-Scale over the Fujita scale along with 31 "Specific Damage Indicators" used by Environment Canada (EC) in their ratings.
In musical tuning, the Pythagorean comma (or ditonic comma), named after the ancient mathematician and philosopher Pythagoras, is the small interval (or comma) existing in Pythagorean tuning between two enharmonically equivalent notes such as C and B♯ (
In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution. It is named after Swedish mathematician Waloddi Weibull, who described it in detail in 1951, although it was first identified by Fréchet (1927) and first applied by Rosin & Rammler (1933) to describe a particle size distribution.
The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), formerly the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale (SSHS), classifies hurricanes – Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones – that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms – into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds.
The Weber–Fechner law refers to two related hypotheses in the field of psychophysics, known as Weber's law and Fechner's law. Both laws relate to human perception, more specifically the relation between the actual change in a physical stimulus and the perceived change. This includes stimuli to all senses: vision, hearing, taste, touch, and smell.
A quantity is subject to exponential decay if it decreases at a rate proportional to its current value. Symbolically, this process can be expressed by the following differential equation, where N is the quantity and λ (lambda) is a positive rate called the exponential decay constant:
In statistics, the Wishart distribution is a generalization to multiple dimensions of the gamma distribution. It is named in honor of John Wishart, who first formulated the distribution in 1928.
Cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) is a highly sensitive optical spectroscopic technique that enables measurement of absolute optical extinction by samples that scatter and absorb light. It has been widely used to study gaseous samples which absorb light at specific wavelengths, and in turn to determine mole fractions down to the parts per trillion level. The technique is also known as cavity ring-down laser absorption spectroscopy (CRLAS).
The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
In probability theory, a distribution is said to be stable if a linear combination of two independent random variables with this distribution has the same distribution, up to location and scale parameters. A random variable is said to be stable if its distribution is stable. The stable distribution family is also sometimes referred to as the Lévy alpha-stable distribution, after Paul Lévy, the first mathematician to have studied it.
The TORRO tornado intensity scale is a scale measuring tornado intensity between T0 and T11. It was proposed by Terence Meaden of the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), a meteorological organisation in the United Kingdom, as an extension of the Beaufort scale.
Lacunarity, from the Latin lacuna, meaning "gap" or "lake", is a specialized term in geometry referring to a measure of how patterns, especially fractals, fill space, where patterns having more or larger gaps generally have higher lacunarity. Beyond being an intuitive measure of gappiness, lacunarity can quantify additional features of patterns such as "rotational invariance" and more generally, heterogeneity. This is illustrated in Figure 1 showing three fractal patterns. When rotated 90°, the first two fairly homogeneous patterns do not appear to change, but the third more heterogeneous figure does change and has correspondingly higher lacunarity. The earliest reference to the term in geometry is usually attributed to Mandelbrot, who, in 1983 or perhaps as early as 1977, introduced it as, in essence, an adjunct to fractal analysis. Lacunarity analysis is now used to characterize patterns in a wide variety of fields and has application in multifractal analysis in particular.
The Richter scale – also called the Richter magnitude scale or Richter's magnitude scale – is a measure of the strength of earthquakes, developed by Charles F. Richter and presented in his landmark 1935 paper, where he called it the "magnitude scale". This was later revised and renamed the local magnitude scale, denoted as ML or ML . Because of various shortcomings of the ML scale most seismological authorities now use other scales, such as the moment magnitude scale (Mw ), to report earthquake magnitudes, but much of the news media still refers to these as "Richter" magnitudes. All magnitude scales retain the logarithmic character of the original and are scaled to have roughly comparable numeric values.
The Sperry–Piltz Ice Accumulation Index, or SPIA Index, is a scale for rating ice storm intensity, based on the expected footprint of an ice storm, the expected ice accumulation as a result of a storm, and the expected damage a storm inflicts on human-built structures, especially exposed overhead utility systems such as power lines.
Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena (SD) is a monthly NOAA publication with comprehensive listings and detailed summaries of severe weather occurrences in the United States. Included is information on tornadoes, high wind events, hail, lightning, floods and flash floods, tropical cyclones (hurricanes), ice storms, snow, extreme temperatures such as heat waves and cold waves, droughts, and wildfires. Photographs of weather and attendant damage are used as much as possible. Maps of significant weather are also included.
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