Seismic gap

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A seismic gap is a segment of an active fault known to produce significant earthquakes that has not slipped in an unusually long time, compared with other segments along the same structure. There is a hypothesis or theory that states that over long periods, the displacement on any segment must be equal to that experienced by all the other parts of the fault. [1] Any large and longstanding gap is, therefore, considered to be the fault segment most likely to suffer future earthquakes.

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The applicability of this approach has been criticised by some seismologists, [2] although earthquakes sometimes have occurred in previously-identified seismic gaps.

Examples

Cross sections along the San Andreas fault showing recorded seismic activity A) 20 years before the Loma Prieta event, B) The main shock (large circle) and aftershocks for the Loma Prieta event, USGS Circular 1045 USGS 1045 Fig5.jpg
Cross sections along the San Andreas fault showing recorded seismic activity A) 20 years before the Loma Prieta event, B) The main shock (large circle) and aftershocks for the Loma Prieta event, USGS Circular 1045

Loma Prieta Seismic Gap, California

Prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake(Mw = 6.9 [3] ), that segment of the San Andreas fault system recorded much less seismic activity than other parts of the fault. [4] The main shock and aftershocks of the 1989 event occurred within the previous seismic gap.

Central Kuril gap, Russia

Immediately following the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, a seismic gap analysis of the seismic zones around the Pacific Ocean identified the Central Kuril segment of the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench subduction zone as the most likely to give rise to a major earthquake. [5] This zone, 500 km in length, at that time had experienced no major earthquake since 1780, but was bounded to north and south by segments that had moved within the last 100 years. The Mw = 8.3 earthquake of 15 November 2006 and the Mw = 8.2 earthquake of 13 January 2007 occurred within the defined gap.

Central Himalayan Gap, India

Although there had been earthquakes to the west (near Delhi) in 1905, and to the east (Nepal–Bihar earthquake) in 1934, there was a 600-kilometer-long region of the central Himalayan that had not ruptured since 1505. [6] In April 2015, the 7.8 Mw April 2015 Nepal earthquake occurred near the center of this region.

Cascadia, United States–Canada

The only known damaging earthquakes to have occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone since the 1700 Cascadia earthquake are the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake and 2001 Nisqually earthquake.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">San Andreas Fault</span> Geologic feature in California

The San Andreas Fault is a continental right-lateral strike-slip transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through the Californias. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. Traditionally, for scientific purposes, the fault has been classified into three main segments, each with different characteristics and a different degree of earthquake risk. The average slip rate along the entire fault ranges from 20 to 35 mm per year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Intraplate earthquake</span> Earthquake that occurs within the interior of a tectonic plate

The term intraplate earthquake refers to a variety of earthquake that occurs within the interior of a tectonic plate; this stands in contrast to an interplate earthquake, which occurs at the boundary of a tectonic plate. Intraplate earthquakes are often called "intraslab earthquakes," especially when occurring in microplates.

Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region". Earthquake prediction is sometimes distinguished from earthquake forecasting, which can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. Not all scientists distinguish "prediction" and "forecast", but the distinction is useful.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cascadia subduction zone</span> Convergent plate boundary that stretches from northern Vancouver Island to Northern California

The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m. The Oregon Department of Emergency Management estimates shaking would last 5-7 minutes along the coast, with strength and intensity decreasing further from the epicenter. It is a very long, sloping subduction zone where the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates move to the east and slide below the much larger mostly continental North American Plate. The zone varies in width and lies offshore beginning near Cape Mendocino, Northern California, passing through Oregon and Washington, and terminating at about Vancouver Island in British Columbia.

Megathrust earthquakes occur at convergent plate boundaries, where one tectonic plate is forced underneath another. The earthquakes are caused by slip along the thrust fault that forms the contact between the two plates. These interplate earthquakes are the planet's most powerful, with moment magnitudes (Mw) that can exceed 9.0. Since 1900, all earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater have been megathrust earthquakes.

The 1957 Andreanof Islands earthquake occurred at 04:22 local time on March 9 with a moment magnitude estimated between 8.6 and 9.1 and a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of VIII (Severe). It occurred south of the Andreanof Islands group, which is part of the Aleutian Islands arc. The event occurred along the Aleutian Trench, the convergent plate boundary that separates the Pacific Plate and the North American plates near Alaska. A basin-wide tsunami followed, with effects felt in Alaska and Hawaii, and strong waves recorded across the Pacific rim. Total losses were around $5 million.

A slow earthquake is a discontinuous, earthquake-like event that releases energy over a period of hours to months, rather than the seconds to minutes characteristic of a typical earthquake. First detected using long term strain measurements, most slow earthquakes now appear to be accompanied by fluid flow and related tremor, which can be detected and approximately located using seismometer data filtered appropriately. That is, they are quiet compared to a regular earthquake, but not "silent" as described in the past.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Queen Charlotte Fault</span> Active transform fault in Canada and Alaska

The Queen Charlotte Fault is an active transform fault that marks the boundary of the North American plate and the Pacific plate. It is Canada's right-lateral strike-slip equivalent to the San Andreas Fault to the south in California. The Queen Charlotte Fault forms a triple junction south with the Cascadia subduction zone and the Explorer Ridge. The Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) forms a transpressional plate boundary, and is as active as other major transform fault systems in terms of slip rates and seismogenic potential. It sustains the highest known deformation rates among continental or continent-ocean transform systems globally, accommodating greater than 50mm/yr dextral offset. The entire approximately 900 km offshore length has ruptured in seven greater than magnitude 7 events during the last century, making the cumulative historical seismic moment release higher than any other modern transform plate boundary system.

Episodic tremor and slip (ETS) is a seismological phenomenon observed in some subduction zones that is characterized by non-earthquake seismic rumbling, or tremor, and slow slip along the plate interface. Slow slip events are distinguished from earthquakes by their propagation speed and focus. In slow slip events, there is an apparent reversal of crustal motion, although the fault motion remains consistent with the direction of subduction. ETS events themselves are imperceptible to human beings and do not cause damage.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">San Jacinto Fault Zone</span> Southern Californian fault zone

The San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) is a major strike-slip fault zone that runs through San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, and Imperial Counties in Southern California. The SJFZ is a component of the larger San Andreas transform system and is considered to be the most seismically active fault zone in the area. Together they relieve the majority of the stress between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates.

Susan Y. Schwartz is a scientist at the University of California, Santa Cruz known for her research on earthquakes, through field projects conducted in locations in Costa Rica and the San Andreas Fault.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tsunami earthquake</span> Type of earthquake which triggers a tsunami of far-larger magnitude

In seismology, a tsunami earthquake is an earthquake which triggers a tsunami of significantly greater magnitude, as measured by shorter-period seismic waves. The term was introduced by Japanese seismologist Hiroo Kanamori in 1972. Such events are a result of relatively slow rupture velocities. They are particularly dangerous as a large tsunami may arrive at a coastline with little or no warning.

The 1981 Playa Azul earthquake occurred on October 24, 1981, at 21:22 local time. It was located near Playa Azul, Michoacán, Mexico. The magnitude of the earthquake was Mw 7.2, or Ms 7.3. Three deaths were reported, two from Michoacán and one from Mexico City. Some buildings were damaged in both Michoacán and Mexico City. A small tsunami was registered in Acapulco with a maximum height of 9 cm.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deep-focus earthquake</span>

A deep-focus earthquake in seismology is an earthquake with a hypocenter depth exceeding 300 km. They occur almost exclusively at convergent boundaries in association with subducted oceanic lithosphere. They occur along a dipping tabular zone beneath the subduction zone known as the Wadati–Benioff zone.

The 1838 San Andreas earthquake is believed to be a rupture along the northern part of the San Andreas Fault in June 1838. It affected approximately 100 km of the fault, from the San Francisco Peninsula to the Santa Cruz Mountains. It was a strong earthquake, with an estimated moment magnitude of 6.8 to 7.2, making it one of the largest known earthquakes in California. The region was lightly populated at the time, although structural damage was reported in San Francisco, Oakland, and Monterey. It is unknown whether there were fatalities. Based on geological sampling, the fault created approximately 1.5 meters of slip.

The 1930 Bago (Pegu) earthquake, also known as the Swa earthquake struck Myanmar on 5 May. The moment magnitude (Mw ) 7.4 earthquake had a focal depth of 35 km (22 mi) and maximum Rossi–Forel intensity of IX. The earthquake was the result of rupture along a 131 km (81 mi) segment of the Sagaing Fault—a major strike-slip fault that runs through the country. Extensive damage was reported in the southern part of the country, particularly in Bago and Yangon, where buildings collapsed and fires erupted. At least 550, and possibly up to 7,000 people were killed. A moderate tsunami was generated along the Burmese coast which caused minor damage to ships and a port. It was felt for over 570,000 km2 (220,000 sq mi) and as far as Shan State and Thailand. The mainshock was followed by many aftershocks; several were damaging; additional earthquakes occurred in July and December, killing dozens. The December earthquake was similarly sized which also occurred along the Sagaing Fault.

The 1839 Martinique earthquake occurred on the morning of January 11 with an estimated magnitude of 7.8 Ms , the largest in the Lesser Antilles since 1690. The maximum intensity of this earthquake was assigned IX on both the Mercalli and MSK intensity scales, which left the cities of Saint-Pierre and Fort Royal almost completely destroyed. Estimation on the number of human losses varies from 390 to even 4,000 making this one of the deadliest earthquakes in the Caribbean.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1920 Xalapa earthquake</span> Earthquake in Mexico

The 1920 Xalapa earthquake was the deadliest in Mexico's history prior to 1985—killing at least 648 people. It occurred on January 3 at 22:25 local time, during a period of political unrest in the country. Mudflows and landslides triggered by the shock destroyed buildings in rural towns across the states of Veracruz and Puebla, causing most of the deaths. The earthquake was attributed to a shallow fault in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. It measured moment magnitude 6.3–6.4 and had a hypocenter depth of <15 km (9.3 mi). The Mexican government took immediate action in the aftermath—providing assistance and establishing communication services. Severely damaged towns including Xalapa were rebuilt, while others had to be abandoned. Help to survivors also came from civil society groups, civilians, and the Catholic Church. The earthquake's aftershocks were studied by scientists to determine its seismological characteristics.

The Nemuro-Oki earthquake in scientific literature, occurred on June 17 at 12:55 local time. It struck with an epicenter just off the Nemuro Peninsula in northern Hokkaidō, Japan. It measured 7.8–7.9 on the moment magnitude scale (Mw ), 8.1 on the tsunami magnitude scale (Mt ) and 7.4 on the Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude scale (MJMA ).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Chignik earthquake</span> 7th largest earthquake in the US

An earthquake occurred off the coast of the Alaska Peninsula on July 28, 2021, at 10:15 p.m. local time. The large megathrust earthquake had a moment magnitude of 8.2 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A tsunami warning was issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) but later cancelled. The mainshock was followed by a number of aftershocks, including three that were of magnitude 5.9, 6.1 and 6.9 respectively.

References

  1. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979). "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries". Pure and Applied Geophysics Pageoph. 117 (6): 1082–1147. Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M. doi:10.1007/BF00876211. S2CID   129377355.
  2. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (1991). "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten years after". Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 96 (B13): 21419–21431. Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K. doi:10.1029/91JB02210.
  3. ANSS: Loma Prieta 1989 , Origin (accessed 2019-04-01).
  4. Lessons Learned from the Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989. U.S.G.S. Circular 1045 N.B. requires free ie djvu plug-in to view
  5. Baranov, B., Lobkovsky, L., Ivaschenko, A., Kulinich, R. & B. Karp, B. 2007. The Central Kuril Earthquakes and Tsunamis of 15 November 2006 and 13 January 2007: Findings of a Pre-event geophysical field survey. EGU Abstracts
  6. Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., Tasa, D. 2012. Essentials of Geology. Prentice Hall. p 355.