Seismic gap

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A seismic gap is a segment of an active fault known to produce significant earthquakes that has not slipped in an unusually long time, compared with other segments along the same structure. There is a hypothesis or theory that states that over long periods, the displacement on any segment must be equal to that experienced by all the other parts of the fault. [1] Any large and longstanding gap is, therefore, considered to be the fault segment most likely to suffer future earthquakes.

Contents

The applicability of this approach has been criticised by some seismologists, [2] although earthquakes sometimes have occurred in previously identified seismic gaps.

Examples

Cross sections along the San Andreas Fault showing recorded seismic activity A) 20 years before the Loma Prieta event, B) The main shock (large circle) and aftershocks for the Loma Prieta event, USGS Circular 1045 USGS 1045 Fig5.jpg
Cross sections along the San Andreas Fault showing recorded seismic activity A) 20 years before the Loma Prieta event, B) The main shock (large circle) and aftershocks for the Loma Prieta event, USGS Circular 1045

Loma Prieta Seismic Gap, California

Prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake(Mw = 6.9 [3] ), that segment of the San Andreas Fault system recorded much less seismic activity than other parts of the fault. [4] The main shock and aftershocks of the 1989 event occurred within the previous seismic gap.

Central Kuril gap, Russia

Immediately following the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, a seismic gap analysis of the seismic zones around the Pacific Ocean identified the Central Kuril segment of the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench subduction zone as the most likely to give rise to a major earthquake. [5] This zone, 500 km in length, at that time had experienced no major earthquake since 1780, but was bounded to north and south by segments that had moved within the last 100 years. The Mw = 8.3 earthquake of 15 November 2006 and the Mw = 8.2 earthquake of 13 January 2007 occurred within the defined gap.

Central Himalayan Gap, India

Although there had been earthquakes to the west (near Delhi) in 1905, and to the east (Nepal–India earthquake) in 1934, there was a 600-kilometer-long region of the central Himalayan that had not ruptured since 1505. [6] In April 2015, the 7.8 Mw April 2015 Nepal earthquake occurred near the center of this region.

Cascadia, United States–Canada

The only known damaging earthquakes to have occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone since the 1700 Cascadia earthquake are the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake and 2001 Nisqually earthquake.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">San Andreas Fault</span> Geologic feature in California

The San Andreas Fault is a continental right-lateral strike-slip transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through the U.S. state of California. It forms part of the tectonic boundary between the Pacific plate and the North American plate. Traditionally, for scientific purposes, the fault has been classified into three main segments, each with different characteristics and a different degree of earthquake risk. The average slip rate along the entire fault ranges from 20 to 35 mm per year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Intraplate earthquake</span> Earthquake that occurs within the interior of a tectonic plate

An intraplate earthquake is an earthquake that occurs in the interior of a tectonic plate, in contrast to an interplate earthquake on the boundary of a tectonic plate. It is also called an intraslab earthquake, especially when occurring in a microplate.

Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region". Earthquake prediction is sometimes distinguished from earthquake forecasting, which can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1989 Loma Prieta earthquake</span> Major earthquake in Northern California

On October 17, 1989, at 5:04 p.m. local time, the Loma Prieta earthquake occurred at the Central Coast of California. The shock was centered in The Forest of Nisene Marks State Park in Santa Cruz County, approximately 10 mi (16 km) northeast of Santa Cruz on a section of the San Andreas Fault System and was named for the nearby Loma Prieta Peak in the Santa Cruz Mountains. With an Mw magnitude of 6.9 and a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent), the shock was responsible for 63 deaths and 3,757 injuries. The Loma Prieta segment of the San Andreas Fault System had been relatively inactive since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake until two moderate foreshocks occurred in June 1988 and again in August 1989.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Juan de Fuca plate</span> Small tectonic plate in the eastern North Pacific

The Juan de Fuca plate is a small tectonic plate (microplate) generated from the Juan de Fuca Ridge that is subducting beneath the northerly portion of the western side of the North American plate at the Cascadia subduction zone. It is named after the explorer of the same name. One of the smallest of Earth's tectonic plates, the Juan de Fuca plate is a remnant part of the once-vast Farallon plate, which is now largely subducted underneath the North American plate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Explorer plate</span> Oceanic tectonic plate beneath the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada

The Explorer plate is an oceanic tectonic plate beneath the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, which is partially subducted under the North American plate. Along with the Juan de Fuca plate and Gorda plate, the Explorer plate is a remnant of the ancient Farallon plate, which has been subducted under the North American plate. The Explorer plate separated from the Juan de Fuca plate roughly 4 million years ago. In its smoother, southern half, the average depth of the Explorer plate is roughly 2,400 metres (7,900 ft) and rises up in its northern half to a highly variable basin between 1,400 metres (4,600 ft) and 2,200 metres (7,200 ft) in depth.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cascadia subduction zone</span> Convergent plate boundary that stretches from northern Vancouver Island to Northern California

The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 100–200 km (70–100 mi) off the Pacific coast, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30 m (98 ft). The Oregon Department of Emergency Management estimates shaking would last 5–7 minutes along the coast, with strength and intensity decreasing further from the epicenter. It is a very long, sloping subduction zone where the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates move to the east and slide below the much larger mostly continental North American plate. The zone varies in width and lies offshore beginning near Cape Mendocino, Northern California, passing through Oregon and Washington, and terminating at about Vancouver Island in British Columbia.

Megathrust earthquakes occur at convergent plate boundaries, where one tectonic plate is forced underneath another. The earthquakes are caused by slip along the thrust fault that forms the contact between the two plates. These interplate earthquakes are the planet's most powerful, with moment magnitudes (Mw) that can exceed 9.0. Since 1900, all earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater have been megathrust earthquakes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Philippine Trench</span> Submarine trench to the east of the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean

The Philippine Trench is a submarine trench to the east of the Philippines. The trench is located in the Philippine sea of the western North Pacific Ocean and continues NNW-SSE. It has a length of approximately 1,320 kilometres and a width of about 30 km (19 mi) from the center of the Philippine island of Luzon trending southeast to the northern Maluku island of Halmahera in Indonesia. At its deepest point, the trench reaches 10,540 meters.

The 1957 Andreanof Islands earthquake occurred at 04:22 local time on March 9 with a moment magnitude estimated at 8.6 and a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of VIII (Severe). It occurred south of the Andreanof Islands group, which is part of the Aleutian Islands arc. The event occurred along the Aleutian Trench, the convergent plate boundary that separates the Pacific plate and the North American plates near Alaska. A basin-wide tsunami followed, with effects felt in Alaska and Hawaii, and strong waves recorded across the Pacific rim. Total losses were around $5 million.

A slow earthquake is a discontinuous, earthquake-like event that releases energy over a period of hours to months, rather than the seconds to minutes characteristic of a typical earthquake. First detected using long term strain measurements, most slow earthquakes now appear to be accompanied by fluid flow and related tremor, which can be detected and approximately located using seismometer data filtered appropriately. That is, they are quiet compared to a regular earthquake, but not "silent" as described in the past.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Queen Charlotte Fault</span> Active transform fault in Canada and Alaska

The Queen Charlotte Fault is an active transform fault that marks the boundary of the North American plate and the Pacific plate. It is Canada's right-lateral strike-slip equivalent to the San Andreas Fault to the south in California. The Queen Charlotte Fault forms a triple junction south with the Cascadia subduction zone and the Explorer Ridge. The Queen Charlotte Fault (QCF) forms a transpressional plate boundary, and is as active as other major transform fault systems in terms of slip rates and seismogenic potential. It sustains the highest known deformation rates among continental or continent-ocean transform systems globally, accommodating greater than 50mm/yr dextral offset. The entire approximately 900 km offshore length has ruptured in seven greater than magnitude 7 events during the last century, making the cumulative historical seismic moment release higher than any other modern transform plate boundary system.

Episodic tremor and slip (ETS) is a seismological phenomenon observed in some subduction zones that is characterized by non-earthquake seismic rumbling, or tremor, and slow slip along the plate interface. Slow slip events are distinguished from earthquakes by their propagation speed and focus. In slow slip events, there is an apparent reversal of crustal motion, although the fault motion remains consistent with the direction of subduction. ETS events themselves are imperceptible to human beings and do not cause damage.

The 1995 Antofagasta earthquake occurred on July 30 at 05:11 UTC with a moment magnitude of 8.0 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of VII. The Antofagasta Region in Chile was affected by a moderate tsunami, with three people killed, 58 or 59 injured, and around 600 homeless. Total damage from the earthquake and tsunami amounted to $1.791 million.

The 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquakes occurred along the Lost Coast of Northern California on April 25 and 26. The three largest events were the M7.2 thrust mainshock that struck near the unincorporated community of Petrolia midday on April 25 and two primary strike-slip aftershocks measuring 6.5 and 6.6 that followed early the next morning. The sequence encompassed both interplate and intraplate activity that was associated with the Mendocino triple junction, a complex system of three major faults that converge near Cape Mendocino. The total number of aftershocks that followed the events exceeded 2,000.

Susan Y. Schwartz is a scientist at the University of California, Santa Cruz known for her research on earthquakes, through field projects conducted in locations in Costa Rica and the San Andreas Fault.

The 1838 San Andreas earthquake is believed to be a rupture along the northern part of the San Andreas Fault in June 1838. It affected approximately 100 km of the fault, from the San Francisco Peninsula to the Santa Cruz Mountains. It was a strong earthquake, with an estimated moment magnitude of 6.8 to 7.2, making it one of the largest known earthquakes in California. The region was lightly populated at the time, although structural damage was reported in San Francisco, Oakland, and Monterey. It is unknown whether there were fatalities. Based on geological sampling, the fault created approximately 1.5 meters of slip.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2013 Craig, Alaska earthquake</span> Earthquake in Alaska and British Columbia

The 2013 Craig, Alaska earthquake struck on January 5, at 12:58 am (UTC–7) near the city of Craig and Hydaburg, on Prince of Wales Island. The Mw 7.5 earthquake came nearly three months after an Mw  7.8 quake struck Haida Gwaii on October 28, in 2012. The quake prompted a regional tsunami warning to British Columbia and Alaska, but it was later cancelled. Due to the remote location of the quake, there were no reports of casualties or damage.

The 1839 Martinique earthquake occurred on the morning of January 11 with an estimated magnitude of 7.8 Ms , the largest in the Lesser Antilles since 1690. The maximum intensity of this earthquake was assigned IX on both the Mercalli and MSK intensity scales, which left the cities of Saint-Pierre and Fort Royal almost completely destroyed. Estimation on the number of human losses varies from 390 to 4,000 making this one of the deadliest earthquakes in the Caribbean.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Chignik earthquake</span> 7th largest earthquake in the US

An earthquake occurred off the coast of the Alaska Peninsula on July 28, 2021, at 10:15 p.m. local time. The large megathrust earthquake had a moment magnitude of 8.2 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A tsunami warning was issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) but later cancelled. The mainshock was followed by a number of aftershocks, including three that were of magnitude 5.9, 6.1 and 6.9 respectively.

References

  1. McCann, W. R.; Nishenko, S. P.; Sykes, L. R.; Krause, J. (1979). "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries". Pure and Applied Geophysics Pageoph. 117 (6): 1082–1147. Bibcode:1979PApGe.117.1082M. doi:10.1007/BF00876211. S2CID   129377355.
  2. Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (1991). "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten years after". Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 96 (B13): 21419–21431. Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K. doi:10.1029/91JB02210.
  3. ANSS: Loma Prieta 1989 , Origin (accessed 2019-04-01).
  4. Lessons Learned from the Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989. U.S.G.S. Circular 1045 N.B. requires free ie djvu plug-in to view
  5. Baranov, B., Lobkovsky, L., Ivaschenko, A., Kulinich, R. & B. Karp, B. 2007. The Central Kuril Earthquakes and Tsunamis of 15 November 2006 and 13 January 2007: Findings of a Pre-event geophysical field survey. EGU Abstracts
  6. Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., Tasa, D. 2012. Essentials of Geology. Prentice Hall. p 355.