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In macroeconomics, a stabilization policy is a package or set of measures introduced to stabilize a financial system or economy. The term can refer to policies in two distinct sets of circumstances: business cycle stabilization or credit cycle stabilization. In either case, it is a form of discretionary policy.
“Stabilization” can refer to correcting the normal behavior of the business cycle, thus enhancing economic stability. In this case, the term generally refers to demand management by monetary and fiscal policy to reduce normal fluctuations and output, sometimes referred to as "keeping the economy on an even keel."
The policy changes in these circumstances are usually countercyclical, compensating for the predicted changes in employment and output, to increase short-run and medium run welfare.
The term can also refer to measures taken to resolve a specific economic crisis, for instance, an exchange-rate crisis or stock market crash, in order to prevent the economy developing recession or inflation.
The package is usually initiated either by a government or central bank, or by either or both of these institutions acting in concert with international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank. Depending on the goals to be achieved, it involves some combination of restrictive fiscal measures (to reduce government borrowing) and monetary tightening (to support the currency).
Recent examples of such packages include Argentina's re-scheduling of its international obligations (where central banks and leading international banks re-scheduled Argentina's debt so as to allow it to avoid total default), and IMF interventions in South East Asia (at the end of the 1990s) when several Asian economies encountered financial turbulence. See examples:
This type of stabilization can be painful, in the short term, for the economy concerned because of lower output and higher unemployment. Unlike a business-cycle stabilization policy, these changes will often be pro-cyclical, reinforcing existing trends. While this is clearly undesirable, the policies are designed to be a platform for successful long-run growth and reform.
It has been argued that, rather than imposing such policies after a crisis, the international financial system architecture needs to be reformed to avoid some of the risks (e.g., hot money flows and/or hedge fund activity) that some people hold to destabilize economies and financial markets, and lead to the need for stabilization policies and, e.g., IMF interventions. Proposed measures include for example a global Tobin tax on currency trades across borders.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution, headquartered in Washington, D.C., consisting of 190 countries. Its stated mission is "working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world." Formed in 1944, started on December 27, 1945, at the Bretton Woods Conference, primarily by the ideas of Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes, it came into formal existence in 1945 with 29 member countries and the goal of reconstructing the international monetary system. It now plays a central role in the management of balance of payments difficulties and international financial crises. Countries contribute funds to a pool through a quota system, from which countries experiencing balance of payments problems can borrow money. As of 2016, the fund had SDR 477 billion. The IMF is regarded as the global lender of last resort.
In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.
In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.
The economy of governments covers the systems for setting levels of taxation, government budgets, the money supply and interest rates as well as the labour market, national ownership, and many other areas of government interventions into the economy.
The 1997 Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. However, the recovery in 1998–1999 was rapid, and worries of a meltdown quickly subsided.
Within the budgetary process, deficit spending is the amount by which spending exceeds revenue over a particular period of time, also called simply deficit, or budget deficit; the opposite of budget surplus. The term may be applied to the budget of a government, private company, or individual. Government deficit spending was first identified as a necessary economic tool by John Maynard Keynes in the wake of the Great Depression. It is a central point of controversy in economics, as discussed below.
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to control either the interest rate payable for very short-term borrowing or the money supply, often as an attempt to reduce inflation or the interest rate, to ensure price stability and general trust of the value and stability of the nation's currency.
A country's gross external debt is the liabilities that are owed to nonresidents by residents. The debtors can be governments, corporations or citizens. External debt may be denominated in domestic or foreign currency. It includes amounts owed to private commercial banks, foreign governments, or international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
In economic policy, austerity is a set of political-economic policies that aim to reduce government budget deficits through spending cuts, tax increases, or a combination of both. There are three primary types of austerity measures: higher taxes to fund spending, raising taxes while cutting spending, and lower taxes and lower government spending. Austerity measures are often used by governments that find it difficult to borrow or meet their existing obligations to pay back loans. The measures are meant to reduce the budget deficit by bringing government revenues closer to expenditures. Proponents of these measures state that this reduces the amount of borrowing required and may also demonstrate a government's fiscal discipline to creditors and credit rating agencies and make borrowing easier and cheaper as a result.
Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.
The impossible trinity is a concept in international economics and international political economy which states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:
Structural adjustment programs (SAPs) consist of loans provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) to countries that experience economic crises. Their stated purpose is to adjust the country's economic structure, improve international competitiveness, and restore its balance of payments.
In economics, an optimum currency area (OCA) or optimal currency region (OCR) is a geographical region in which it would maximize economic efficiency to have the entire region share a single currency.
Economic stability is the absence of excessive fluctuations in the macroeconomy. An economy with fairly constant output growth and low and stable inflation would be considered economically stable. An economy with frequent large recessions, a pronounced business cycle, very high or variable inflation, or frequent financial crises would be considered economically unstable.
Adolfo César Diz was an Argentine economist who was President of the Central Bank of Argentina from 1976 until 1981.
Guillermo Antonio Calvo is an Argentine-American economist who is director of Columbia University's mid-career Program in Economic Policy Management in their School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).
A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden slowdown in private capital inflows into emerging market economies, and a corresponding sharp reversal from large current account deficits into smaller deficits or small surpluses. Sudden stops are usually followed by a sharp decrease in output, private spending and credit to the private sector, and real exchange rate depreciation. The term “sudden stop” was inspired by a banker’s comment on a paper by Rüdiger Dornbusch and Alejandro Werner about Mexico, that “it is not speed that kills, it is the sudden stop”.
Fear of floating refers to situations where a country prefers a fixed exchange rate to a floating exchange rate regime. This is more relevant in emerging economies, especially when they suffered from financial crisis in last two decades. In foreign exchange markets of the emerging market economies, there is evidence showing that countries who claim they are floating their currency, are actually reluctant to let the nominal exchange rate fluctuate in response to macroeconomic shocks. In the literature, this is first convincingly documented by Calvo and Reinhart with "fear of floating" as the title of one of their papers in 2000. Since then, this widespread phenomenon of reluctance to adjust exchange rates in emerging markets is usually called "fear of floating". Most of the studies on "fear of floating" are closely related to literature on costs and benefits of different exchange rate regimes.
South Korea and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) partner to assist the country in managing its financial system. South Korea's economy is considered fundamentally sound because of the balance of their banking sector and their aim toward a zero structural balance without compromising their ability to sustain debt. The IMF Board in 2019 assessed that the policy framework and financial system in place are sturdy and firmly set.
The South Korean International Monetary Fund Agreement was implemented when South Korea, which was in a foreign exchange crisis, signed a memorandum of understanding with the International Monetary Fund on December 3, 1997. The country's chaebols, or large conglomerates, had engaged in poor business management and overborrowing, and the government had been supporting the chaebols' financial practices when the Asian financial crisis began. The IMF required the introduction of a range of policies as conditions for the bailout. The South Korean government under Kim Young-sam accepted those conditions to stave off a crisis. As a result, corporate bankruptcies, mass unemployment, and a crisis in the real economy accelerated.