Strategic frivolity in foreign policy defines shortsighted political decisions that are not connected to the long-term interests of the country making those decisions. [1] [2] [3] Henry Kissinger used the term in his book World Order (2014) [4] while describing the policies that caused the First World War and remarked that "history punishes strategic frivolity sooner or later". [1]
Kissinger had introduced the notion of frivolity in his book Diplomacy (1994), describing the actions of the statesmen in the second half of the 19th century that eventually led to the First World War. In particular, he singled out the actions of Napoleon III, who considered the foreign policy of France as "an instrument he uses to secure his rule in France", per the words of Baron Hübner. "Frivolity is a costly indulgence of a statesman", and Napoleon quickly got trapped in the crises he manufactured without thinking through the long-term consequences; after antagonizing Russia by joining the Crimean War in 1853 and supporting the Polish Uprising in 1863, he found no support against the German assertiveness already in 1864 during the Second Schleswig War. The control over the power arrangements in Germany, enjoyed by France for centuries (since Cardinal Richelieu), was lost in a flash. [5]
In World Order, Kissinger describes how diplomatic resolutions of the First Moroccan Crisis, the Second Moroccan Crisis, and the Bosnian Crisis created an impression that risk-taking to appease the nationalistically-inclined journalists and agitated public is a normal way of conducting the foreign policy. Statesmen became accustomed to pushing other major powers over issues of secondary interest, counting on diplomats to find ways to avoid actual wars. The overall European status quo actually was acceptable to all major powers (there were no territorial disputes in Europe with the exception of Alsace–Lorraine), yet it took just two weeks from Austria-Hungary's 10-point ultimatum to Serbia to a start of hostilities. Europe never recovered from this indulgence. [6]
The expression was introduced into Russia's political discourse (in Kissinger's meaning) by Timofei Bordachev in the 2010s. [7] It was used to compare the situation in Europe in the beginning of the 21st century to the one before the Second Thirty Years' War (1914–1945) and to describe the actions of the major powers that were based on assumptions that a global war was impossible. [2] All participants, including Russia, appear to be ready to carry long-term risks of ever-escalating wars to achieve short-term tactical results, as these wars are "mistakenly perceived as unthinkable". [3] In this worldview, Russia plays such a strategic game because the requests to take her interests into account are ignored otherwise. [2]
Experts and the public in Russia are puzzled by seemingly random positions on foreign policy taken by the European Union and the United States. In their opinion, EU does not seem to accept a cause-and-effect link between the support for the Arab Spring and the 2015 European migrant crisis. [2]
Bordachev guesses that this state of affairs will persist for a long time, as the United States appears to be incapable of accepting any change to the global order that does not look like an unquestionable victory. [2] In the meantime, the problem of frivolity can only get worse, and both China and Russia should prepare for the worst possible decisions of the other side. [8]
Henry Alfred Kissinger was an American diplomat and political scientist who served as United States Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977 and National Security Advisor from 1969 to 1975, in the presidential administrations of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.
Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzeziński, known as Zbig, was a Polish-American diplomat and political scientist. He served as a counselor to Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966 to 1968 and was Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor from 1977 to 1981. As a scholar, Brzezinski belonged to the realist school of international relations, standing in the geopolitical tradition of Halford Mackinder and Nicholas J. Spykman, while elements of liberal idealism have also been identified in his outlook. Brzezinski was the primary organizer of The Trilateral Commission.
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Realpolitik is the approach of conducting diplomatic or political policies based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than strictly following ideological, moral, or ethical premises. In this respect, it shares aspects of its philosophical approach with those of realism and pragmatism.
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The Agadir Crisis, Agadir Incident, or Second Moroccan Crisis was a brief crisis sparked by the deployment of a substantial force of French troops in the interior of Morocco in July 1911 and the deployment of the German gunboat SMS Panther to Agadir, a Moroccan Atlantic port. Germany did not object to France's expansion but demanded “territorial compensation” for itself. Berlin threatened warfare, sent a gunboat, and stirred up German nationalists. Negotiations between Berlin and Paris resolved the crisis on 4 November 1911: France took over Morocco as a protectorate in exchange for territorial concessions to German Cameroon from the French Congo.
A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power influence, which may cause middle or small powers to consider the great powers' opinions before taking actions of their own. International relations theorists have posited that great power status can be characterized into power capabilities, spatial aspects, and status dimensions.
Détente is the relaxation of strained relations, especially political ones, through verbal communication. The diplomacy term originates from around 1912, when France and Germany tried unsuccessfully to reduce tensions.
A middle power is a state that is not a superpower or a great power, but still exerts influence and plays a significant role in international relations. These countries often possess certain capabilities, such as strong economies, advanced technologies, and diplomatic influence, that allow them to have a voice in global affairs. Middle powers are typically seen as bridge-builders between larger powers, using their diplomatic skills to mediate conflicts and promote cooperation on international issues.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C. From its founding in 1962 until 1987, it was an affiliate of Georgetown University, initially named the Center for Strategic and International Studies of Georgetown University. The center conducts policy studies and strategic analyses of political, economic and security issues throughout the world, with a focus on issues concerning international relations, trade, technology, finance, energy and geostrategy.
Gunboat diplomacy is the pursuit of foreign policy objectives with the aid of conspicuous displays of naval power, implying or constituting a direct threat of warfare should terms not be agreeable to the superior force.
Geostrategy, a subfield of geopolitics, is a type of foreign policy guided principally by geographical factors as they inform, constrain, or affect political and military planning. As with all strategies, geostrategy is concerned with matching means to ends Strategy is as intertwined with geography as geography is with nationhood, or as Colin S. Gray and Geoffrey Sloan state it, "[geography is] the mother of strategy."
Wilsonianism, or Wilsonian idealism, is a certain type of foreign policy advice. The term comes from the ideas and proposals of United States President Woodrow Wilson. He issued his famous Fourteen Points in January 1918 as a basis for ending World War I and promoting world peace. He was a leading advocate of the League of Nations to enable the international community to avoid wars and end hostile aggression. Wilsonianism is a form of liberal internationalism.
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In international relations, the term smart power refers to the combination of hard power and soft power strategies. It is defined by the Center for Strategic and International Studies as "an approach that underscores the necessity of a strong military, but also invests heavily in alliances, partnerships, and institutions of all levels to expand one's influence and establish legitimacy of one's action."
Russie.NEI.Visions is an online collection of policy papers each in French, English and Russian produced by the Russia/New Independent States Centre of Paris-based Institut français des relations internationales. The collection promotes the publication of policy oriented analyses of events in the post-Soviet space, authored by established experts and up-and-coming analysts.
A Second Cold War, Cold War II, or the New Cold War has been used to describe heightened geopolitical tensions in the 21st century between usually, on one side, the United States and, on the other, either China or Russia—the successor state of the Soviet Union, which led the Eastern Bloc during the original Cold War.
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