Terms of trade

Last updated

The terms of trade (TOT) is the relative price of exports in terms of imports [1] and is defined as the ratio of export prices to import prices. [2] It can be interpreted as the amount of import goods an economy can purchase per unit of export goods.

Contents

An improvement of a nation's terms of trade benefits that country in the sense that it can buy more imports for any given level of exports. The terms of trade may be influenced by the exchange rate because a rise in the value of a country's currency lowers the domestic prices of its imports but may not directly affect the prices of the commodities it exports.

History

The expression terms of trade was first coined by the US American economist Frank William Taussig in his 1927 book International Trade. However, an earlier version of the concept can be traced back to the English economist Robert Torrens and his book The Budget: On Commercial and Colonial Policy, published in 1844, as well as to John Stuart Mill's essay Of the Laws of Interchange between Nations; and the Distribution of Gains of Commerce among the Countries of the Commercial World, published in the same year, though allegedly already written in 1829/30.

Definition

Terms of trade (TOT) is a measure of how much imports an economy can get for a unit of exported goods. For example, if an economy is only exporting apples and only importing oranges, then the terms of trade are simply the price of apples divided by the price of oranges — in other words, how many oranges can be obtained for a unit of apples. Since economies export and import many goods, measuring the TOT requires defining price indices for exported and imported goods and comparing the two. [3]

A rise in the prices of exported goods in international markets would increase the TOT, while a rise in the prices of imported goods would decrease it. For example, countries that export oil will see an increase in their TOT when oil prices go up, while the TOT of countries that import oil would decrease.

Two country model CIE economics

In the simplified case of two countries and two commodities, terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the total export revenue[ clarification needed ] a country receives for its export commodity to the total import revenue it pays for its import commodity. In this case, the imports of one country are the exports of the other country. For example, if a country exports 50 dollars' worth of product in exchange for 100 dollars' worth of imported product, that country's terms of trade are 50/100 = 0.5. The terms of trade for the other country must be the reciprocal (100/50 = 2). When this number is falling, the country is said to have "deteriorating terms of trade". If multiplied by 100, these calculations can be expressed as a percentage (50% and 200% respectively). If a country's terms of trade fall from say 100% to 70% (from 1.0 to 0.7), it has experienced a 30% deterioration in its terms of trade. When doing longitudinal (time series) calculations, it is common to set a value for the base year [ citation needed ] to make interpretation of the results easier.

In basic microeconomics, the terms of trade are usually set in the interval between the opportunity costs for the production of a given good of two nations.

Terms of trade is the ratio of a country's export price index to its import price index, multiplied by 100. The terms of trade measures the rate of exchange of one good or service for another when two countries trade with each other.

Multi-commodity multi-country model

The terms of trade of Australia since 1959. Note the effect of the resources boom from 2005. ABS-5206.0-AustralianNationalAccounts-NationalIncomeExpenditureProduct-KeyNationalAccountsAggregates-TermsTrade-Index-A2302478J.svg
The terms of trade of Australia since 1959. Note the effect of the resources boom from 2005.

In the more realistic case of many products exchanged between many countries, terms of trade can be calculated using a Laspeyres index. In this case, a nation's terms of trade is the ratio of the Laspeyre price index of exports to the Laspeyre price index of imports. The Laspeyre export index is the current value of the base period exports divided by the base period value of the base period exports. Similarly, the Laspeyres import index is the current value of the base period imports divided by the base period value of the base period imports.

Where

price of exports in the current period
quantity of exports in the base period
price of exports in the base period
price of imports in the current period
quantity of imports in the base period
price of imports in the base period

Limitations

Terms of trade should not be used as synonymous with social welfare, or even Pareto economic welfare. Terms of trade calculations do not tell us about the volume of the countries' exports, only relative changes between countries. To understand how a country's social utility changes, it is necessary to consider changes in the volume of trade, changes in productivity and resource allocation, and changes in capital flows.

The price of exports from a country can be heavily influenced by the value of its currency, which can in turn be heavily influenced by the interest rate in that country. If the value of currency of a particular country is increased due to an increase in interest rate one can expect the terms of trade to improve. However, this may not necessarily mean an improved standard of living for the country since an increase in the price of exports perceived by other nations will result in a lower volume of exports. As a result, exporters in the country may actually be struggling to sell their goods in the international market even though they are enjoying a (supposedly) high price.

In the real world of over 200 nations trading hundreds of thousands of products, terms of trade calculations can get very complex. Thus, the possibility of errors is significant.

See also

Related Research Articles

A variety of measures of national income and output are used in economics to estimate total economic activity in a country or region, including gross domestic product (GDP), Gross national income (GNI), net national income (NNI), and adjusted national income. All are specially concerned with counting the total amount of goods and services produced within the economy and by various sectors. The boundary is usually defined by geography or citizenship, and it is also defined as the total income of the nation and also restrict the goods and services that are counted. For instance, some measures count only goods & services that are exchanged for money, excluding bartered goods, while other measures may attempt to include bartered goods by imputing monetary values to them.

Comparative advantage in an economic model is the advantage over others in producing a particular good. A good can be produced at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade. Comparative advantage describes the economic reality of the gains from trade for individuals, firms, or nations, which arise from differences in their factor endowments or technological progress.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a measure of the price of specific goods in different countries and is used to compare the absolute purchasing power of the countries' currencies. PPP is effectively the ratio of the price of a market basket at one location divided by the price of the basket of goods at a different location. The PPP inflation and exchange rate may differ from the market exchange rate because of tariffs, and other transaction costs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Budget constraint</span> All available goods and services a customer can purchase with respect to their income

In economics, a budget constraint represents all the combinations of goods and services that a consumer may purchase given current prices within their given income. Consumer theory uses the concepts of a budget constraint and a preference map as tools to examine the parameters of consumer choices. Both concepts have a ready graphical representation in the two-good case. The consumer can only purchase as much as their income will allow, hence they are constrained by their budget. The equation of a budget constraint is where is the price of good X, and is the price of good Y, and m is income.

A cost-of-living index is a theoretical price index that measures relative cost of living over time or regions. It is an index that measures differences in the price of goods and services, and allows for substitutions with other items as prices vary.

In economics, nominalvalue refers to value measured in terms of absolute money amounts, whereas real value is considered and measured against the actual goods or services for which it can be exchanged at a given time. Real value takes into account inflation and the value of an asset in relation to its purchasing power.

In economics, output is the quantity and quality of goods or services produced in a given time period, within a given economic network, whether consumed or used for further production. The economic network may be a firm, industry, or nation. The concept of national output is essential in the field of macroeconomics. It is national output that makes a country rich, not large amounts of money.

A price index is a normalized average of price relatives for a given class of goods or services in a given region, during a given interval of time. It is a statistic designed to help to compare how these price relatives, taken as a whole, differ between time periods or geographical locations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Heckscher–Ohlin model</span> Economic model for international trade

The Heckscher–Ohlin model is a general equilibrium mathematical model of international trade, developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin at the Stockholm School of Economics. It builds on David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage by predicting patterns of commerce and production based on the resources of a trading region. The model essentially says that countries export the products which use their relatively abundant and cheap factors of production, and import the products which use the countries' relatively scarce factors.

A commodity currency is a currency that co-moves with the world prices of primary commodity products, due to these countries' heavy dependency on the export of certain raw materials for income. Commodity currencies are most prevalent in developing countries. In the foreign exchange market, commodity currencies generally refer to the New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, South African rand, Brazilian real, Russian ruble and the Chilean peso. Commodity currencies' nature can allow foreign exchange traders to more accurately gauge a currency's value, and predict movements within markets based on the perceived value of the correlated commodity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Marshall–Lerner condition</span> Economic concept

The Marshall–Lerner condition is satisfied if the absolute sum of a country's export and import demand elasticities is greater than one. If it is satisfied, then if a country begins with a zero trade deficit then when the country's currency depreciates, its balance of trade will improve. The country's imports become more expensive and exports become cheaper due to the change in relative prices, and the Marshall-Lerner condition implies that the indirect effect on the quantity of trade will exceed the direct effect of the country having to pay a higher price for its imports and receive a lower price for its exports.

The EURO STOXX 50 is a stock index of Eurozone stocks designed by STOXX, an index provider owned by Deutsche Börse Group. The index is composed of 50 stocks from 11 countries in the Eurozone.


Unequal exchange is used primarily in Marxist economics, but also in ecological economics, to describe the systemic hidden transfer of labor and ecological value from poor countries in the imperial periphery to rich countries and monopolistic corporations in the imperial core due to structural inequalities in the global economy.

The U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes measure average changes in prices of goods and services that are imported to or exported from the U.S.. The indexes are produced monthly by the International Price Program (IPP) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Import and Export Price Indexes were published quarterly starting in 1974 and monthly since 1989.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Import</span> Good brought into a jurisdiction

An importer is the receiving country in an export from the sending country. Importation and exportation are the defining financial transactions of international trade. Import is part of the International Trade which involves buying and receiving of goods or services produced in another country. The seller of such goods and services is called an exporter, while the foreign buyer is known as an importer.

The international dollar, also known as Geary–Khamis dollar, is a hypothetical unit of currency that has the same purchasing power parity that the U.S. dollar had in the United States at a given point in time. It is mainly used in economics and financial statistics for various purposes, most notably to determine and compare the purchasing power parity and gross domestic product of various countries and markets. The year 1990 or 2000 is often used as a benchmark year for comparisons that run through time. The unit is often abbreviated, e.g. 2000 US dollars or 2000 International$.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Japan Crude Cocktail</span> Informal nickname given to the pricing index of Crude Oil

The Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) is the informal nickname given to the pricing index of Crude Oil used in most East Asian countries. The JCC is the average price of customs-cleared crude oil imports into Japan and is published by the Petroleum Association of Japan. The official name of the JCC is the Japan Customs-cleared Crude Oil Price. The valuation of the JCC closely reflects the market state of supply and demand. Clear fluctuations in JCC pricing can be linked to distinct events such as the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis and the 2011 Fukushima Disaster.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a food price index by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It records the development of world market prices of 55 agricultural commodities and foodstuffs. The FFPI is considered an indicator of future inflation and cost trends in the food industry.

References

  1. Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Page 199.
  2. Reinsdorf, M.B. (2009). Terms of Trade Effects: Theory and Measurement. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 1.
  3. Marshall, Reinsdorf (October 2009). "Terms of Trade Effects: Theory and Measurement" (PDF). working paper. BEA.