Threat assessment

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Threat assessment is the practice of determining the credibility and seriousness of a potential threat, as well as the probability that the threat will become a reality. [1] [2] Threat assessment is separate to the more established practice of violence-risk assessment, which attempts to predict an individual's general capacity and tendency to react to situations violently. Instead, threat assessment aims to interrupt people on a pathway to commit "predatory or instrumental violence, the type of behavior associated with targeted attacks," according to J. Reid Meloy, PhD, co-editor of the International Handbook of Threat Assessment. [3] "Predatory and affective violence are largely distinctive modes of violence." [4]

Contents

Threat assessments are commonly conducted by government agencies such as FBI [5] and CIA on a national security scale. However, many private companies can also offer threat assessment capabilities targeted towards the needs of individuals and businesses. [6]

Components

Threat assessment involves several major components:

Areas of need

Threat assessment is relevant to many businesses and other venues, including schools. Threat assessment professionals, who include psychologists and law enforcement agents, work to identify and help potential offenders, guiding students to overcome underlying sources of anger, hopelessness or despair. These feelings can increase a student's risk of suicide, alcohol and drug use, physical abuse, dropping out and criminal activity. Threat assessment also applies to risk management. Information security risk managers often perform a threat assessment before developing a plan to mitigate those threats. [8]

Per a Senator King hearing in 2022, a top U.S. military officer was reprimanded by Senator King, the chairman of the committee, because the threat assessment surrounding the Russian conflict with Ukraine was not anywhere near the actual outcome. Senator King commented that additional arms could have been sent by the U.S. government more quickly to aid Ukraine defense if a more reliable assessment would have been performed.

Schools

Many U.S. states require schools have threat assessmentsincluding Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania [9] , Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia [10] , and Washington state [11] , according to a 2023 EdWeek article [12] citing Everytown an organization that advocates for firearm safety.

The 2023 article "A state mandated school threat assessment: Here's what it means for students" [13] reviews the results of a study [14] funded by the U.S. Department of Justice that analyzed 23,000 student threat assessment done in Florida in the 2021-2022 school year. As the most comprehensive study so far done by University of Virginia researchers, the article states the assessments done that year produced mixed results. The main takeaways are that better data needs to be gathered by both states and school districts to ensure fairness, that threat assessments need to be fully funded to offer support to struggling students, that sixty-four percent of the student threats studied were transient, and that Black students were disproportionately referred for threat assessments.

Using data from the 2019-2020 school year, EdSurge [15] states that sixty-four percent of public schools have a threat assessment teams. [16]

A 2022 New Yorker article "Can researchers show that threat assessment stops mass shootings" [17] states that there isn’t definitive evidence that threat assessments stop school shootings. However, the upside of threat assessments can be a warmer school community when struggling students get support.

A California case that challenged the practice of threat assessments was the Taft Union case covered in the Psychology Today article "Threat Assessment Team Negligence: The Taft Union Case." [18] This article outlines steps to avoid negligence in threat assessments based on a school shooting where in 2013 a student Brian O. came to first period with a shotgun that he fired and left a chest wound for one student and a near miss for another before Brian surrendered. He was criminally convicted and sentenced to 27 years in prison.

The ensuing California Court of Appeals civil court case found in 2022 that there was 54 percent negligence with the threat assessment and management team and awarded $3.8 million for the plaintiff, Bowe Cleveland, who was shot in the chest. [19] "

There have been more incidents covered by the media where bias [20] may have effected students lives when they were determined to be threats as shown in cbs8.com articles about the long-term stigma of falsely being determined a threat [21] and a twelve-year-old being arrested and subsequently charged with a felony regarding his Snapchat message [22] in San Diego, California.

There is also evidence that Black and Hispanic students [23] [24] are disproportionately determined threats as well as students with disabilities [25] [26] .

In the 2016 Oregonian/OregonLive article "Targeted: A Family and the Quest to Stop the Next School Shooter," a sixteen-year-old boy on the autism spectrum eventually drops out of school after being selected for a threat assessment. [27] The family allowed the reporter full access to their experience of not being able to get information from the district and their son feeling singled out and criminalized. The "threat" was eventually determined to be a misunderstanding.

The book "Trigger Points" by Mark Follman (a Mother Jones national affairs editor) covers threat assessments and traces them to an awareness of stalking behavior after the murder of John Lennon and shooting of Ronald Reagan. Follman elaborates how the field of behavioral threat assessment first grew out of Secret Service [28] and FBI serial-killer investigations. His thesis is that these assessments have the potential to stop school shootings. [29]

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References

  1. ↑ "Threat Assessment: Predicting and Preventing School Violence". National Association of School Psychologists . Retrieved 16 October 2014.
  2. ↑ "NATIONAL THREAT ASSESSMENT CENTER". United States Secret Service. Archived from the original on 3 December 2013. Retrieved 16 October 2014.
  3. ↑ International handbook of threat assessment. Meloy, J. Reid., Hoffmann, Jens, 1968-. Oxford. 2014. ISBN   9780199924554. OCLC   855779221.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link) CS1 maint: others (link)
  4. ↑ "Threat assessment in action". www.apa.org. Retrieved 2018-03-17.
  5. ↑ "Making Prevention a Reality: Identifying, Assessing, and Managing the Threat of Targeted Attacks". Federal Bureau of Investigation. Retrieved 2022-10-07.
  6. ↑ "What is a Threat Assessment | Mindstate Psychology - Australia's Private Threat Assessment Experts". www.mindstatepsychology.com.au. Retrieved 2022-10-07.
  7. ↑ Davis, Joseph A. (2001). Stalking Crimes and Victim Protection. CRC Press. ISBN   9781420041743.
  8. ↑ "Overview of Threat Risk Assessment". www.sans.org. Retrieved 2018-01-18.
  9. ↑ https://www.pccd.pa.gov/schoolsafety/Documents/2nd%20Edition%20-%20PCCD%20Threat%20Assessment%20Model%20Procedures%20and%20Guidelines%20(2022).pdf
  10. ↑ https://www.dcjs.virginia.gov/sites/dcjs.virginia.gov/files/publications/law-enforcement/threat-assessment-model-policies-procedures-and-guidelinespdf_0.pdf
  11. ↑ https://ospi.k12.wa.us/sites/default/files/2023-08/washington-state-threat-assessment-fidelity-document.pdf
  12. ↑ https://www.edweek.org/leadership/a-state-mandated-school-threat-assessment-heres-what-it-meant-for-students/2023/07?s_kwcid=AL!6416!3!602270476281!!!g!!&utm_source=goog&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=ew+dynamic+recent&ccid=dynamic+ads+recent+articles&ccag=recent+articles+dynamic&cckw=&cccv=dynamic+ad&gad_source=1
  13. ↑ https://www.edweek.org/leadership/a-state-mandated-school-threat-assessment-heres-what-it-meant-for-students/2023/07
  14. ↑ https://education.virginia.edu/sites/default/files/2023-06/yvp_fl-nij-case-technical-report-year-2_06-01-2023.pdf
  15. ↑ https://www.wvtf.org/news/2024-03-21/uva-experts-offer-free-threat-assessment-program-for-schools
  16. ↑ https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2022/2022029.pdf
  17. ↑ https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/can-researchers-show-that-threat-assessment-stops-mass-shootings
  18. ↑ https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/the-forensic-files/202210/threat-assessment-team-negligence-the-taft-union-case
  19. ↑ https://caselaw.findlaw.com/court/ca-court-of-appeal/2167340.html
  20. ↑ https://clinicalsecurity.org/uncategorized/cognitive-bias-in-threat-assessment/
  21. ↑ https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/investigations/school-district-under-fire-for-failing-to-assess-alleged-threats/509-ebfcfe84-0ac8-4a02-8eab-f2461390ce32
  22. ↑ https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/investigations/felony-charge-against-12-year-old-over-snapchat-message/509-d17e0d72-2d5c-4d6c-9436-22aa8f082de5
  23. ↑ https://www.nasponline.org/resources-and-publications/resources-and-podcasts/school-safety-and-crisis/systems-level-prevention/threat-assessment-at-school/behavior-threat-assessment-and-management-(btam)-best-practice-considerations-for-k%e2%80%9312-schools
  24. ↑ https://kappanonline.org/kelleher-the-limits-of-threat-assessment-russo/
  25. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/14/when-kids-are-threats-the-assessments-unfairly-targeting-students-with-disabilities
  26. ↑ https://www.endzerotolerance.org/single-post/2020/03/29/the-risks-of-threat-assessment-to-students-are-dire
  27. ↑ https://www.oregonlive.com/news/erry-2018/06/75f0f464cb3367/targeted_a_family_and_the_ques.html
  28. ↑ https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/Protecting_Americas_Schools.pdf
  29. ↑ https://www.npr.org/2022/05/02/1095489487/trigger-points-mark-follman-how-to-stop-mass-shootings
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