The Waffle House Index is a metric named after the ubiquitous Southern US restaurant chain Waffle House known for its 24-hour, 365-day service.[1] Since this restaurant always remains open (except in extreme circumstances), it has given rise to an informal but useful metric to determine the severity of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.[2][3] The metric was first conceived of by journalist Matt Dellinger and the term later coined by former administrator Craig Fugate of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).[4][5] The metric is unofficially[2][6] used by FEMA to inform disaster response.[7][8]
A Waffle House Index map prepared by FEMA during the February 2014 nor'easter, showing disruptions to operations in Georgia and South Carolina.
The index is based on Waffle House's reputation for having good disaster preparedness and staying open during extreme weather or reopening quickly afterwards.
If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That's really bad...[9]
—Craig Fugate, Former Head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency
Levels
The index consists of three levels, based on the extent of operations and service at the restaurant following a storm:[9][10][11]
Level
Service
Implication
GREEN
Full menu
Restaurant has power and damage is minimal or absent.
YELLOW
Limited menu
Power is either absent or delivered by a generator, or food supplies are running low.
RED
Restaurant is closed
Indicates severe damage, severe flooding; Severe destruction to the restaurant.
Background
"When a Hurricane Strikes, Weather the Storm With Waffles" video news report from Voice of America, September 2018
The phenomenon was first observed and reported by journalist Matt Dellinger in a 2006 article in The Oxford American, in which he noted that he had "found a way to map the destruction from Hurricane Katrina: look for Waffle Houses."[12]
The term itself was later coined by FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate in May 2011 following the 2011 Joplin tornado, during which the two Waffle House restaurants in Joplin remained open.[5][13][14]
The measure is based on Waffle House's reputation for staying open during extreme weather and for reopening quickly, albeit sometimes with a limited menu, after very severe weather events such as tornadoes or hurricanes. The chain's disaster preparedness measures include assembling and training "Waffle House jump teams" to facilitate fast reopening after disasters.[9] Waffle House, along with other chains (such as Home Depot, Walmart, and Lowe's) which do a significant proportion of their business in the southern US where there is a frequent risk of hurricanes, have good risk management and disaster preparedness. Because of this, and the fact that a cut-down menu is prepared for times when there is no power or limited supplies, the Waffle House Index rarely reaches the red (closed) level.[5][9]
The "Waffle House Index" sits alongside more formal measures of wind, rainfall, and other weather information, such as the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale, which are used to indicate the intensity of a storm.[9]
Dan Stoneking, FEMA director of external affairs, wrote in a FEMA blog post:[15][16]
As Craig [Fugate] often says, the Waffle House test doesn't just tell us how quickly a business might rebound–it also tells us how the larger community is faring. The sooner restaurants, grocery and corner stores, or banks can re-open, the sooner local economies will start generating revenue again–signaling a stronger recovery for that community. The success of the private sector in preparing for and weathering disasters is essential to a community's ability to recover in the long run.
—Dan Stoneking, FEMA News of the Day–What do Waffle Houses Have to Do with Risk Management?
A FOIA request response in 2017 included emails saying that the Waffle House Index was a personal project of Craig Fugate's, denying a connection between the Waffle House Index and FEMA's National Business Emergency Operations Center.[14]
Examples
In 2022, because of the expected severity of Hurricane Ian, 35 Waffle Houses closed in Florida prior to the storm's arrival, an extremely rare event. Hurricane Ian eventually made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 miles per hour (240km/h), peaking out over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 5 hurricane.
In preparation for Hurricane Milton in October 2024, Waffle House announced that 25 Waffle House locations in the Tampa Bay area and eight in the Fort Myers area would close on October 8 prior to the storm's arrival.[18][19]
A Waffle House location may close in preparation for an incoming storm for the safety of its customers and employees, which is unrelated to actual storm damage. The intent of the Waffle House Index is to measure how quickly a location reopens after the storm passes. The quicker the reopening, the less overall damage the area sustained in the storm.
See also
Big Mac Index– Economic index published by The Economist
Tornado intensity and damage– Measurement of strength and severity of tornadoesPages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets
1 2 Brown, JPat (September 1, 2017). "FEMA really does have a 'Waffle House Index' for hurricanes – and they're not too happy about it". MuckRock. Retrieved October 30, 2019. Term first coined by FEMA Administrator Fugate in May, 2011, following Joplin tornado – two Waffle House restaurants remained open after EF5 tornado struck the city on May 22. Key quote: "If you get there and the Waffle House is closed?" FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate has said. "That's really bad. That's where you go to work."
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