2024 Cook by-election

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2024 Cook by-election
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Division of Cook (New South Wales)
in the House of Representatives
 First partySecond party
  MartinMoore.png
Candidate Simon Kennedy Martin Moore
Party Liberal Greens
Popular vote51,78813,649
Percentage62.63%16.50%
SwingIncrease2.svg 7.10Increase2.svg 6.60
TCP 71.42%28.58%
Division of COOK 2016.png
Location of Cook in Sydney
MP before election

Scott Morrison
Liberal

Elected MP

Simon Kennedy
Liberal

A by-election to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Cook was held on 13 April 2024, following the resignation of sitting Liberal member and former Prime Minister Scott Morrison. [1]

Contents

Morrison's resignation was first announced on 23 January 2024, and came into effect on 28 February 2024. [2]

It was the fourth federal by-election to have taken place since the first sitting of the 47th Parliament.

Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy succeeded Morrison as the new member for Cook. Psephologist Antony Green called the by-election for the Liberals only 49 minutes after polls had closed, despite only four booths reporting first preferences and none reporting a distribution of preferences at the time. [3]

On 16 April 2024 the Australian Electoral Commission declared Simon Kennedy officially elected as the new member for Cook. [4]

Background

Seat details

Much of Cook's boundaries are within the Sutherland Shire in Sydney's southern suburbs. It was first contested at the 1969 Australian federal election and named after naval captain and explorer James Cook. Politically, the division has been a traditionally conservative stronghold, with a history of consistently electing representatives from the Liberal Party, except for 1972-1975 when the Australian Labor Party held the seat.

Demographics

During the 2021 Australian census, Cook's median age of 42 exceeded both the national (38) and state (39) medians. In the realm of economic indicators, the median personal weekly income in Cook amounted to $991, surpassing the corresponding figures for the state and nation, which stood at $813 and $805 respectively. Additionally, the demographic composition of the electorate saw over 60 percent identifying their ancestry as English or Australian. [5]

Electoral history

Two-party-preferred vote in Cook, 1996–2022
Election 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
  Liberal 62.28%58.94%64.00%63.82%56.57%62.66%66.35%65.39%69.02%62.44%
  Labor 37.72%41.06%36.00%36.18%43.43%37.34%33.65%34.61%30.98%37.56%
GovernmentL/NPL/NPL/NPL/NPALPALPL/NPL/NPL/NPALP

2022 election results

Morrison retained the seat with a 62.44% two-party-preferred vote and a 6.58% swing against him. His primary vote had a decrease of 8.17%. On the other hand, all other parties who contested the election (Labor, Greens, One Nation and United Australian Party) had increases in their primary votes, being 1.89%, 3.09%, 1.61% and 3.27% respectively. Only Labor had a primary vote of more than 10% (24.99%), while the Green's primary vote was just below 10% (9.90%).

Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order they will appear on the ballot.

PartyCandidateBackground
  Libertarian Vinay KolhatkarAuthor and podcaster. [6]
  Animal Justice Natasha Brown [7]
  Independent Roger WoodwardAccountant and CFA volunteer. [8]
  Greens Martin Moore Sutherland Shire Ward A candidate at the 2021 local elections. [9]
  Liberal Simon Kennedy Candidate for Bennelong at the 2022 federal election. [10]
  Sustainable Australia Simone Francis Gagatam [11]

Labor

On 22 March the Labor Party announced they would not run a candidate in the by-election. This is the first time since the 2015 North Sydney by-election that they have not contested a federal by-election. [12]

Liberal

On 4 March former Bennelong candidate Simon Kennedy won Liberal Party preselection. Other candidates were Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, Veteran Family Advocate Commissioner Gwen Cherne (endorsed by former prime minister John Howard) and former United Australia Party candidate Benjamin Britton. [13]

PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Simon Kennedy15853.37+53.37
Liberal Carmelo Pesce9030.40+30.40
Liberal Gwen Cherne3511.82+11.82
Liberal Benjamin Britton134.39+4.39
Total formal votes296100.0

Results

2024 Cook by-election [14] [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Simon Kennedy 53,47862.66+7.13
Greens Martin Moore14,03516.44+6.54
Animal Justice Natasha Brown5,8046.80+6.80
Libertarian Vinay Kolhatkar5,1015.98+5.98
Independent Roger Woodward4,8885.73+5.73
Sustainable Australia Simone Gagatam2,0432.39+2.39
Total formal votes85,34993.23−2.37
Informal votes6,1936.77+2.37
Turnout 91,54281.76
Two-candidate-preferred result
Liberal Simon Kennedy 60,82371.26+8.82
Greens Martin Moore24,52628.74+28.74
Liberal hold 

Opinion polling

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB GRN LBT AJP SAP IND Unsure LIB GRN
28 March 2024 uComms [lower-alpha 1] 914± 3.6%45.4%12.4%3.2%5.4%3.1%6.1%24.4%65%35%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Sponsored by the Australia Institute

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References

  1. ↑ Sakaal, Paul; Massola, James; Thompson, Angus (23 January 2024). "Scott Morrison to resign from politics" . Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024.
  2. ↑ Coorey, Phillip (23 January 2024). "Scott Morrison calls time on politics, sets up another byelection" . Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024.
  3. ↑ Green, Antony (13 April 2024). "Commentary on Cook By-election 2024". Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024– via ABC News. 18:49 - Four polling places in and it is clear the Liberal Party will easily win the Cook by-election.
  4. ↑ AEC [@AusElectoralCom] (16 April 2024). "The Cook federal by-election result has officially been declared this morning with Simon Kennedy (LIB) officially elected" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 21 April 2024. Retrieved 21 April 2024– via Twitter.
  5. ↑ Australian Bureau of Statistics (28 June 2022). "Cook". 2021 Census QuickStats. Retrieved 13 April 2024. OOjs UI icon edit-ltr-progressive.svg
  6. ↑ "Cook By-Election". libertarians.org.au. Docklands Victoria. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
  7. ↑ Trembath, Murray (3 April 2024). "Cook byelection candidate Natasha Brown seeks to give animals 'political voice'" . theleader.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
  8. ↑ Trembath, Murray (22 March 2024). "Labor 'no show' as six candidates line up for Cook byelection" . theleader.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
  9. ↑ Rix, Ethan (13 April 2024). "Cook by-election candidate Simon Kennedy says locals are 'comfortable' living near nuclear reactors". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024. The Australian Greens have put up Martin Moore, who has a Fine Arts Degree with a Masters in Social Ecology and ran for the local seat of Miranda at the 2023 NSW election.
  10. ↑ Karp, Paul; Remeikis, Amy (4 March 2024). "Liberals pick management consultant Simon Kennedy for Cook byelection". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  11. ↑ Raue, Ben (23 January 2024). "Cook by-election, 2024". tallyroom.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024. Simone Francis Gagatam (Sustainable Australia)
  12. ↑ "Labor will not select a candidate in Cook by-election". Sky News Australia . 22 March 2024. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024 – via MSN.
  13. ↑ Dole, Nick (4 March 2024). "Simon Kennedy wins preselection for Liberals in seat of Cook following Scott Morrison's resignation". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024.
  14. ↑ "Cook, NSW". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 April 2024.
  15. ↑ Green, Antony. "Cook By-election 2024 Results". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 13 April 2024. Retrieved 13 April 2024.
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