Dark forest hypothesis

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The dark forest hypothesis is the conjecture that many alien civilizations exist throughout the universe, but they are both silent and hostile, maintaining their undetectability for fear of being destroyed by another hostile and undetected civilization. [1] It is one of many possible explanations of the Fermi paradox, which contrasts the lack of contact with alien life with the potential for such contact. The hypothesis derives its name from Liu Cixin's 2008 novel The Dark Forest , [2] although the concept predates the novel. [3] [4] [5]

Contents

Background

There is no known reliable or reproducible evidence that aliens have visited or attempted to contact Earth. [6] [7] No transmissions and no firm evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life have been detected or observed. This runs counter to the knowledge that the universe is filled with a very large number of planets, some of which likely hold conditions hospitable for life. Life typically expands until it fills all available niches. [8] These contradictory facts form the basis for the Fermi paradox, of which the dark forest hypothesis is one proposed solution.

Concept

The "dark forest" hypothesis presumes that any space-faring civilization would view any other intelligent life as an inevitable threat and thus destroy any nascent life that makes itself known. As a result, the electromagnetic spectrum would be relatively quiet, without evidence of any intelligent alien life. [9] [10]

A similar hypothesis, under the name "deadly probes", was described by astronomer and author David Brin in his 1983 summary of the arguments for and against the Fermi paradox. [11]

The name of the hypothesis derives from Liu Cixin’s 2008 novel The Dark Forest, [12] as in a "dark forest" filled with "armed hunter(s) stalking through the trees like ghosts". [13] [14] Since the intentions of any newly contacted civilisation can never be known with certainty, meaning that, if one is encountered, it is best to shoot first and ask questions later, in order to avoid the potential extinction of one’s own species. The novel provides a detailed investigation of Brin's concerns about alien contact. [2]

Relationship to other proposed Fermi paradox solutions

The Berserker hypothesis, also known as the deadly probes scenario, proposes self-reproducing machines seek to destroy organic life. [3] : 112  The name derives from short stories by Fred Saberhagen written in the 1960s. The dark forest hypothesis is distinct from the Berserker hypothesis in that under the former, many alien civilizations could still exist provided they keep silent. The former can be viewed as a special case of the latter, if the deadly probes are (e.g. due to resource scarcity) only sent to star systems that show signs of intelligent life. [9]

Game theory

The dark forest hypothesis is a special case of the "sequential and incomplete information game" in game theory. [15] [10] [16]

In game theory, a "sequential and incomplete information game" is one in which all players act in sequence, one after the other, and none are aware of all available information. [17] In the case of this particular game, the only win condition is continued survival. [9] An additional constraint in the special case of the "dark forest" is the scarcity of vital resources. [10] The "dark forest" can be considered an extensive-form game with each "player" possessing the following possible actions: destroy another civilization known to the player; broadcast and alert other civilizations of one's existence; or do nothing. [15]

Science fiction versions

In addition to Fred Saberhagen's Berserker novels, [3] : 112  variations of these ideas have been used in other science fiction stories. These include Alistair Reynolds’ Redemption Ark series, Gregory Benford and Larry Niven in Starship, and Greg Bear in The Forge of God.

In 1987, science fiction author Greg Bear explored this concept that he called a "vicious jungle" in his novel The Forge of God . [18] In The Forge of God, humanity is likened to a baby crying in a hostile forest: "There once was an infant lost in the woods, crying its heart out, wondering why no one answered, drawing down the wolves." One of the characters explains, "We've been sitting in our tree chirping like foolish birds for over a century now, wondering why no other birds answered. The galactic skies are full of hawks, that's why. Planetisms that don't know enough to keep quiet, get eaten." [4]

The term "dark forest" was coined for the idea in 2008 by science fiction author Liu Cixin in his novel The Dark Forest . [19] [2] In Liu Cixin's novel, the dark forest hypothesis is introduced by the character Ye Wenjie, while visiting her daughter's grave. She introduces three key axioms to a new field she describes as "cosmic sociology": [20] [9]

  1. "Suppose a vast number of civilizations distributed throughout the universe, on the order of the number of observable stars. Lots and lots of them. Those civilizations make up the body of a cosmic society. Cosmic sociology is the study of the nature of this super-society." [20]
  2. Suppose that survival is the primary need of a civilization.
  3. Suppose that civilizations continuously expand over time, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.

The only logical conclusion from the acceptance of these axioms, Ye says, is that any intelligent life in the universe will be pitted against all other life in the struggle for survival. [20] [9]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fermi paradox</span> Lack of evidence that aliens exist

The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence. As a 2015 article put it, "If life is so easy, someone from somewhere must have come calling by now."

<i>Berserker</i> (novel series) Series of science fiction novels by Fred Saberhagen

The Berserker series is a series of space opera science fiction short stories and novels by Fred Saberhagen, in which robotic self-replicating machines strive to destroy all life.

Extraterrestrial intelligence, or non-human intelligence (NHI), refers to hypothetical intelligent extraterrestrial life. No such life has ever been proven to exist in the Solar System except for humans on Earth, and its existence in other star systems is still speculative. The question of whether other inhabited worlds might exist has been debated since ancient times. The modern form of the concept emerged when the Copernican Revolution demonstrated that the Earth was a planet revolving around the Sun, and other planets were, conversely, other worlds. The question of whether other inhabited planets or moons exist was a natural consequence of this new understanding. It has become one of the most speculative questions in science and is a central theme of science fiction and popular culture.

The concept of self-replicating spacecraft, as envisioned by mathematician John von Neumann, has been described by futurists and has been discussed across a wide breadth of hard science fiction novels and stories. Self-replicating probes are sometimes referred to as von Neumann probes. Self-replicating spacecraft would in some ways either mimic or echo the features of living organisms or viruses.

The zoo hypothesis speculates on the assumed behavior and existence of technologically advanced extraterrestrial life and the reasons they refrain from contacting Earth. It is one of many theoretical explanations for the Fermi paradox. The hypothesis states that alien life intentionally avoids communication with Earth to allow for natural evolution and sociocultural development, and avoiding interplanetary contamination, similar to people observing animals at a zoo. The hypothesis seeks to explain the apparent absence of extraterrestrial life despite its generally accepted plausibility and hence the reasonable expectation of its existence. A variant on the zoo hypothesis suggested by the former MIT Haystack Observatory scientist John Allen Ball is the "laboratory" hypothesis, in which humanity is being subjected to experiments, with Earth serving as a giant laboratory.

The Great Filter is the idea that, in the development of life from the earliest stages of abiogenesis to reaching the highest levels of development on the Kardashev scale, there is a barrier to development that makes detectable extraterrestrial life exceedingly rare. The Great Filter is one possible resolution of the Fermi paradox.

Dark Forest may refer to:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bracewell probe</span> Hypothetical space probe

A Bracewell probe is a hypothetical concept for an autonomous interstellar space probe dispatched for the express purpose of communication with one or more alien civilizations. It was proposed by Ronald N. Bracewell in a 1960 paper, as an alternative to interstellar radio communication between widely separated civilizations.

Active SETI is the attempt to send messages to intelligent extraterrestrial life. Active SETI messages are predominantly sent in the form of radio signals. Physical messages like that of the Pioneer plaque may also be considered an active SETI message. Active SETI is also known as METI.

The planetarium hypothesis, conceived in 2001 by Stephen Baxter, attempts to provide a solution to the Fermi paradox by holding that our astronomical observations represent an illusion, created by a Type III civilization capable of manipulating matter and energy on galactic scales. He postulates that we do not see evidence of extraterrestrial life because the universe has been engineered so that it appears empty of other life.

<i>The Three-Body Problem</i> (novel) 2008 science fiction novel by Liu Cixin

The Three-Body Problem is a story by Chinese science fiction author Liu Cixin, the first novel in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy. The series portrays a fictional past, present and future wherein Earth encounters an alien civilization from a nearby system of three Sun-like stars orbiting one another, a representative example of the three-body problem in orbital mechanics.

<i>Remembrance of Earths Past</i> Science fiction book trilogy by Liu Cixin

Remembrance of Earth's Past is a science fiction novel series by Chinese writer Liu Cixin. The series is also popularly referred to as Three-Body from part of the title of its first novel, The Three-Body Problem. The series details humanity's discovery of and preparation for an alien invasion force from the planet Trisolaris.

<i>The Dark Forest</i> 2008 Chinese science fiction novel

The Dark Forest is a 2008 science fiction novel by the Chinese writer Liu Cixin. It is the sequel to the Hugo Award-winning novel The Three-Body Problem in the trilogy titled Remembrance of Earth's Past, but Chinese readers generally refer to the series by the title of the first novel. The English version, translated by Joel Martinsen, was published in 2015. The novel is about the dark forest hypothesis, a possible solution to the Fermi paradox, though similar theories have been described as early as 1983.

The aestivation hypothesis is a hypothesized solution to the Fermi paradox conceived in 2017 by Anders Sandberg, Stuart Armstrong and Milan M. Ćirković. The hypothesis, published on 27 April 2017, suggests advanced alien civilizations may be storing energy and aestivating, until the universe cools to better make use of the stored energy to perform tasks.

METI International, known simply as METI, is a non-profit research organization founded in July 2015 by Douglas Vakoch that creates and transmits interstellar messages to attempt to communicate with extraterrestrial civilizations. It is based in San Francisco, California.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Outline of extraterrestrial life</span> Overview of and topical guide to extraterrestrial life

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The Berserker hypothesis, also known as the deadly probes scenario, is the idea that humans have not yet detected intelligent alien life in the universe because it has been systematically destroyed by a series of lethal Von Neumann probes. The hypothesis is named after the Berserker series of novels (1963–2005) written by Fred Saberhagen.

The Hart–Tipler conjecture is the idea that an absence of detectable Von Neumann probes is contrapositive evidence that no intelligent life exists outside of the Solar System. This idea was first proposed in opposition to the Drake equation in a 1975 paper by Michael H. Hart titled "Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth". Assuming that the probes traveled at 1/10 the speed of light and that no time was lost in building new ships upon arriving at the destination, Hart surmised that a wave of Von Neumann probes could cross the galaxy in approximately 650,000 years, a comparatively minimal span of time relative to the estimated age of the universe at 13.7 billion years. Hart’s argument was extended by cosmologist Frank Tipler in his 1981 paper entitled ‘Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist’.

The firstborn hypothesis is a proposed solution to the Fermi paradox which states that no extraterrestrial intelligent life has been discovered because humanity is the first form of intelligent life in the universe.

<i>Rendezvous with the Future</i> 2022 TV series or program

Rendezvous with the Future is a documentary series commissioned by Bilibili and produced by BBC Studios which explores the science behind the science fiction of author Liu Cixin. The series premiered in China on 16 November 2022 and has been watched by a combined audience of more than 80 million.

References

  1. ↑ Paradis, Justine (18 February 2022). "Outside/In[box]: What is the Dark Forest Theory?". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  2. 1 2 3 Yu, C. (1 January 2015). "The Dark Forest Rule: One Solution to the Fermi Paradox". Journal of the British Interplanetary Society. 68: 142–144. Bibcode:2015JBIS...68..142Y. ISSN   0007-084X . Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  3. 1 2 3 Webb, Stephen (2002). If the universe is teeming with aliens ... where is everybody? : fifty solutions to the Fermi paradox and the problem of extraterrestrial life. New York: Copernicus Books in association with Praxis Pub. doi:10.1007/b97464. ISBN   0387955011 . Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  4. 1 2 Stanway, Elizabeth (3 June 2023). "The Dark Forest". University of Warwick. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
  5. ↑ Dyer, Dyer; O'Dowd, Matt (14 March 2024). "Dark Forest: Should We NOT Contact Aliens?". PBS Space Time. Retrieved 26 March 2024– via YouTube.
  6. ↑ Tingay, Steven (19 May 2022). "Is there evidence aliens have visited Earth? Here's what's come out of US congress hearings on 'unidentified aerial phenomena'". The Conversation. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  7. ↑ Kolbert, Elizabeth (14 January 2021). "Have We Already Been Visited by Aliens?". The New Yorker. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  8. ↑ Papagiannis, Michael D. (1978). "Are We All Alone, or could They be in the Asteroid Belt". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society. 19: 277. Bibcode:1978QJRAS..19..277P. Archived from the original on 7 January 2019. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 Williams, Matt (7 January 2021). "Beyond "Fermi's Paradox" XVI: What is the "Dark Forest" Hypothesis?". Universe Today. Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  10. 1 2 3 Konior, Bogna (6 July 2020). "The Dark Forest: Theory of the Internet". BLOK Magazine. ISSN   2719-4973 . Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  11. ↑ Brin, G. D. (1 September 1983). "The Great Silence - the Controversy Concerning Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society. 24: 283–309. Bibcode:1983QJRAS..24..283B. ISSN   0035-8738 . Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  12. ↑ "The Fermi Paradox". The Higgs Centre for Theoretical Physics. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  13. ↑ Liu, Cixin (2015). The Dark Forest (First ed.). New York: Tor Publishing Group. p. 484. ISBN   9780765377081.
  14. ↑ Hsu, Jeremy (31 October 2015). "China's 'Dark Forest' Answer to 'Star Wars' Optimism". Discover . Archived from the original on 17 October 2022.
  15. 1 2 Yasser, Shehab (12 October 2020). "Aliens, The Fermi Paradox, And The Dark Forest Theory". Project Nash. Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  16. ↑ Fudenberg, Drew; Tirole, Jean (April 1983). "Sequential Bargaining with Incomplete Information". The Review of Economic Studies. 50 (2): 221. doi:10.2307/2297414. JSTOR   2297414 . Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  17. ↑ Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter; Deneckere, Raymond J. (2002). "Bargaining with incomplete information". In Aumann, Robert; Hart, Sergiu (eds.). Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications. Vol. 3. pp. 1897–1945. doi:10.1016/S1574-0005(02)03013-8. ISBN   978-0-444-89428-1.
  18. ↑ Cramer, John (20 September 1987). "Self-Reproducing Machines From Another Planet : THE FORGE OF GOD by Greg Bear". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 13 May 2024.
  19. ↑ Kevra, Derek (11 October 2022). "Dark Forest theory: should we try to contact aliens?". FOX 2 Detroit. Retrieved 18 October 2022.
  20. 1 2 3 Liu, Cixin (2015). "Chapter 1". The dark forest (First ed.). New York: Tor. ISBN   9780765386694.
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