I = PAT

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Studying the impact of mining on environment and village community Visit of Sakhali college to study on impact of mining on environment and village Community - 03.jpg
Studying the impact of mining on environment and village community
Pollution from a factory Pollution de l'air.jpg
Pollution from a factory

I = (PAT) is the mathematical notation of a formula put forward to describe the impact of human activity on the environment.

Contents

I = P × A × T

The expression equates human impact on the environment to a function of three factors: population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T). It is similar in form to the Kaya identity which applies specifically to emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

The validity of expressing environmental impact as a simple product of independent factors, and the factors that should be included and their comparative importance, have been the subject of debate among environmentalists. In particular, some have drawn attention to potential inter-relationships among the three factors; and others have wished to stress other factors not included in the formula, such as political and social structures, and the scope for beneficial, as well as harmful, environmental actions.

History

The equation was developed in 1970 during the course of a debate between Barry Commoner, Paul R. Ehrlich and John Holdren. Commoner argued that environmental impacts in the United States were caused primarily by changes in its production technology following World War II and focused on present-day deteriorating environmental conditions in the United States. Ehrlich and Holdren argued that all three factors were important but emphasized the role of human population growth, focusing on a broader scale, being less specific in space and time. [1] [2] [3] [4]

The equation can aid in understanding some of the factors affecting human impacts on the environment, [5] but it has also been cited as a basis for many of the dire environmental predictions of the 1970s by Paul Ehrlich, George Wald, Denis Hayes, Lester Brown, René Dubos, and Sidney Ripley that did not come to pass. [6] Neal Koblitz classified equations of this type as "mathematical propaganda" and criticized Ehrlich's use of them in the media (e.g. on The Tonight Show ) to sway the general public. [7]

The dependent variable: Impact

The variable "I" in the "I=PAT" equation represents environmental impact. The environment may be viewed as a self-regenerating system that can endure a certain level of impact. The maximum endurable impact is called the carrying capacity. As long as "I" is less than the carrying capacity the associated population, affluence, and technology that make up "I" can be perpetually endured. If "I" exceeds the carrying capacity, then the system is said to be in overshoot, which may only be a temporary state. Overshoot may degrade the ability of the environment to endure impact, therefore reducing the carrying capacity.

Impact may be measured using ecological footprint analysis in units of global hectares (gha). Ecological footprint per capita is a measure of the quantity of Earth's biologically productive surface that is needed to regenerate the resources consumed per capita.

Impact is modeled as the product of three terms, giving gha as a result. Population is expressed in human numbers; therefore affluence is measured in units of gha per capita. Technology is a unitless efficiency factor.

The three factors

Population

Population (est.) 10,000 BC - 2000 AD Population curve.svg
Population (est.) 10,000 BC – 2000 AD

In the I=PAT equation, the variable P represents the population of an area, such as the world. Since the rise of industrial societies, human population has been increasing exponentially. This has caused Thomas Malthus, Paul Ehrlich and many others[ who? ] to postulate that this growth would continue until checked by widespread hunger and famine (see Malthusian growth model).

The United Nations project that world population will increase from 7.7 billion today (2019) to 9.8 billion in 2050 and about 11.2 billion in 2100. [8] These projections take into consideration that population growth has slowed in recent years as women are having fewer children. This phenomenon is the result of demographic transition all over the world. Although the UN projects that human population may stabilize at around 11.2 billion in 2100, the I=PAT equation will continue to be relevant for the increasing human impact on the environment in the short to mid-term future.

Environmental impacts of population

Increased population increases humans' environmental impact in many ways, which include but are not limited to:

Affluence

World GDP per capita (in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars) Historic world GDP per capita.svg
World GDP per capita (in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars)

The variable A in the I=PAT equation stands for affluence. It represents the average consumption of each person in the population. As the consumption of each person increases, the total environmental impact increases as well. A common proxy for measuring consumption is through GDP per capita. While GDP per capita measures production, it is often assumed that consumption increases when production increases. GDP per capita has been rising steadily over the last few centuries and is driving up human impact in the I=PAT equation.

Environmental impacts of affluence

Increased consumption significantly increases human environmental impact. This is because each product consumed has wide-ranging effects on the environment. For example, the construction of a car has the following environmental impacts:

  • 605,664 gallons of water for parts and tires; [9]
  • 682 lbs. of pollution at a mine for the lead battery; [9]
  • 2178 lbs. of discharge into water supply for the 22 lbs. of copper contained in the car. [9]

The more cars per capita, the greater the impact. Ecological impacts of each product are far-reaching; increases in consumption quickly result in large impacts on the environment through direct and indirect sources.

Technology

The T variable in the I=PAT equation represents how resource intensive the production of affluence is; how much environmental impact is involved in creating, transporting and disposing of the goods, services and amenities used. Improvements in efficiency can reduce resource intensiveness, reducing the T multiplier. Since technology can affect environmental impact in many different ways, the unit for T is often tailored for the situation to which I=PAT is being applied. For example, for a situation where the human impact on climate change is being measured, an appropriate unit for T might be greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP.

Environmental impacts of technology

Increases in efficiency from technologies can reduce specific environmental impacts, but due to increasing prosperity these technologies yield for the people and businesses that adopt them, technologies actually end up generating greater overall growth into the resources that sustain us.

Criticism

Native American fishing practices (low technology) have a vastly smaller impact than industrialized fishing. Native American fishing at Willamette Falls.jpg
Native American fishing practices (low technology) have a vastly smaller impact than industrialized fishing.

Criticisms of the I=PAT formula:

Interdependencies

The I=PAT equation has been criticized for being too simplistic by assuming that P, A, and T are independent of each other. In reality, at least seven interdependencies between P, A, and T could exist, indicating that it is more correct to rewrite the equation as I = f(P,A,T). [10] For example, a doubling of technological efficiency, or equivalently a reduction of the T-factor by 50%, does not necessarily reduce the environmental impact (I) by 50% if efficiency induced price reductions stimulate additional consumption of the resource that was supposed to be conserved, a phenomenon called the rebound effect (conservation) or Jevons Paradox. As was shown by Alcott, [10] :Fig. 5 despite significant improvements in the carbon intensity of GDP (i.e., the efficiency in carbon use) since 1980, world fossil energy consumption has increased in line with economic and population growth. Similarly, an extensive historical analysis of technological efficiency improvements has conclusively shown that improvements in the efficiency of energy and material use were almost always outpaced by economic growth, resulting in a net increase in resource use and associated pollution. [11] [12]

Neglect of beneficial human impacts

There have also been comments that this model depicts people as being purely detrimental to the environment, ignoring any conservation or restoration efforts that societies have made. [13]

Neglect of political and social contexts

Another major criticism of the I=PAT model is that it ignores the political context and decision-making structures of countries and groups. This means the equation does not account for varying degrees of power, influence, and responsibility of individuals over environmental impact. [13] Also, the P factor does not account for the complexity of social structures or behaviors, resulting in blame being placed on the global poor. [13] I=PAT does not account for sustainable resource use among some poor and indigenous populations, unfairly characterizing these populations whose cultures support low-impact practices. [13] However, it has been argued that the latter criticism not only assumes low impacts for indigenous populations, but also misunderstands the I=PAT equation itself. Environmental impact is a function of human numbers, affluence (i.e., resources consumed per capita) and technology. It is assumed that small-scale societies have low environmental impacts due to their practices and orientations alone but there is little evidence to support this. [14] [15] In fact, the generally low impact of small-scale societies compared to state societies is due to a combination of their small numbers and low-level technology. Thus, the environmental sustainability of these societies is largely an epiphenomenon due their inability to significantly affect their environment. [16] [17] [18] That all types of societies are subject to I=PAT was actually made clear in Ehrlich and Holdren's 1972 dialogue with Commoner in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, [4] where they examine the pre-industrial (and indeed prehistoric) impact of human beings on the environment. Their position is further clarified by Holdren's 1993 paper, A Brief History of "IPAT". [19]

Policy implications

As a result of the interdependencies between P, A, and T and potential rebound effects, policies aimed at decreasing environmental impacts through reductions in P, A, and T may not only be very difficult to implement (e.g., population control and material sufficiency and degrowth movements have been controversial) but also are likely to be rather ineffective compared to rationing (i.e., quotas) or Pigouvian taxation of resource use or pollution. [10]

See also

Related Research Articles

The carrying capacity of an environment is the maximum population size of a biological species that can be sustained by that specific environment, given the food, habitat, water, and other resources available. The carrying capacity is defined as the environment's maximal load, which in population ecology corresponds to the population equilibrium, when the number of deaths in a population equals the number of births. The effect of carrying capacity on population dynamics is modelled with a logistic function. Carrying capacity is applied to the maximum population an environment can support in ecology, agriculture and fisheries. The term carrying capacity has been applied to a few different processes in the past before finally being applied to population limits in the 1950s. The notion of carrying capacity for humans is covered by the notion of sustainable population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic growth</span> Measure of increase in market value of goods

Economic growth can be defined as the increase or improvement in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy in a financial year. Statisticians conventionally measure such growth as the percent rate of increase in the real and nominal gross domestic product (GDP).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Uneconomic growth</span> Economic growth that reflects or creates a decline in the quality of life

Uneconomic growth is economic growth that reflects or creates a decline in the quality of life. The concept is used in human development theory, welfare theory, and ecological economics. It is usually attributed to ecological economist Herman Daly, though other theorists may also be credited for the incipient idea, According to Daly, "uneconomic growth occurs when increases in production come at an expense in resources and well-being that is worth more than the items made." The cost, or decline in well-being, associated with extended economic growth is argued to arise as a result of "the social and environmental sacrifices made necessary by that growing encroachment on the eco-system."

Overconsumption describes a situation where a consumer overuses their available goods and services to where they can't, or don't want to, replenish or reuse them. In microeconomics, this may be described as the point where the marginal cost of a consumer is greater than their marginal utility. The term overconsumption is quite controversial in use and does not necessarily have a single unifying definition. When used to refer to natural resources to the point where the environment is negatively affected, it is synonymous with the term overexploitation. However, when used in the broader economic sense, overconsumption can refer to all types of goods and services, including manmade ones, e.g. "the overconsumption of alcohol can lead to alcohol poisoning". Overconsumption is driven by several factors of the current global economy, including forces like consumerism, planned obsolescence, economic materialism, and other unsustainable business models and can be contrasted with sustainable consumption.

The ecological footprint measures human demand on natural capital, i.e. the quantity of nature it takes to support people and their economies. It tracks human demand on nature through an ecological accounting system. The accounts contrast the biologically productive area people use to satisfy their consumption to the biologically productive area available within a region, nation, or the world (biocapacity). Biocapacity is the productive area that can regenerate what people demand from nature. Therefore, the metric is a measure of human impact on the environment. As Ecological Footprint accounts measure to what extent human activities operate within the means of our planet, they are a central metric for sustainability.

Eco-efficiency refers to the delivery of goods and services to meet human needs and improve quality of life while progressively reducing their environmental impacts of goods and resource intensity during their life-cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Genuine progress indicator</span> Enhances Economic / Well-Being indicators

Genuine progress indicator (GPI) is a metric that has been suggested to replace, or supplement, gross domestic product (GDP). The GPI is designed to take fuller account of the well-being of a nation, only a part of which pertains to the size of the nation's economy, by incorporating environmental and social factors which are not measured by GDP. For instance, some models of GPI decrease in value when the poverty rate increases. The GPI separates the concept of societal progress from economic growth.

Induced innovation is a microeconomic hypothesis first proposed in 1932 by John Hicks in his work The Theory of Wages. He proposed that "a change in the relative prices of the factors of production is itself a spur to invention, and to invention of a particular kind—directed to economizing the use of a factor which has become relatively expensive."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steady-state economy</span> Constant capital and population size

A steady-state economy is an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time. The term usually refers to the national economy of a particular country, but it is also applicable to the economic system of a city, a region, or the entire world. Early in the history of economic thought, classical economist Adam Smith of the 18th century developed the concept of a stationary state of an economy: Smith believed that any national economy in the world would sooner or later settle in a final state of stationarity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human impact on the environment</span> Impact of human life on Earth and environment

Human impact on the environment refers to changes to biophysical environments and to ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources caused directly or indirectly by humans. Modifying the environment to fit the needs of society is causing severe effects including global warming, environmental degradation, mass extinction and biodiversity loss, ecological crisis, and ecological collapse. Some human activities that cause damage to the environment on a global scale include population growth, neoliberal economic policies and rapid economic growth, overconsumption, overexploitation, pollution, and deforestation. Some of the problems, including global warming and biodiversity loss, have been proposed as representing catastrophic risks to the survival of the human species.

Human overpopulation describes a concern that human populations may become too large to be sustained by their environment or resources in the long term. The topic is usually discussed in the context of world population, though it may concern individual nations, regions, and cities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kaya identity</span> Identity regarding anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions

The Kaya identity is a mathematical identity stating that the total emission level of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide can be expressed as the product of four factors: human population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity. It is a concrete form of the more general I = PAT equation relating factors that determine the level of human impact on climate. Although the terms in the Kaya identity would in theory cancel out, it is useful in practice to calculate emissions in terms of more readily available data, namely population, GDP per capita, energy per unit GDP, and emissions per unit energy. It furthermore highlights the elements of the global economy on which one could act to reduce emissions, notably the energy intensity per unit GDP and the emissions per unit energy.

This page is an index of sustainability articles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainability</span> Goal of people safely co-existing on Earth

Sustainability is a social goal for people to co-exist on Earth over a long time. Definitions of this term are disputed and have varied with literature, context, and time. Experts often describe sustainability as having three dimensions : environmental, economic, and social, and many publications emphasize the environmental dimension. In everyday use, sustainability often focuses on countering major environmental problems, including climate change, loss of biodiversity, loss of ecosystem services, land degradation, and air and water pollution. The idea of sustainability can guide decisions at the global, national, and individual levels. A related concept is sustainable development, and the terms are often used to mean the same thing. UNESCO distinguishes the two like this: "Sustainability is often thought of as a long-term goal, while sustainable development refers to the many processes and pathways to achieve it."

In environmental science, a population "overshoots" its local carrying capacity — the capacity of the biome to feed and sustain that population — when that population has not only begun to outstrip its food supply in excess of regeneration, but actually shot past that point, setting up a potentially catastrophic crash of that feeder population once its food populations have been consumed completely. Overshoot can apply to human overpopulation as well as other animal populations: any life-form that consumes others to sustain itself.

The double diversion is two-part theory about environmental harm that was developed by William Freudenburg and colleagues beginning in the 1990s, and focusing on "disproportionality" and "distraction." The concept of disproportionality involves the observation that, rather than being a reflection of overall levels of economic activity, the majority of environmental destruction is actually due to a relatively small number of economic actors, which enjoy privileged access to natural resources, “diverting” those resources for the private benefit of the few. Freudenburg's original work on this concept was carried out in conjunction with his colleague from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Peter Nowak. The reference to the "double" diversion reflects the argument that this first diversion is made possible in large part by the second—the diversion of attention, or distraction, often ironically relying on the widespread but empirically inaccurate belief that environmental harm is economically beneficial to the population as a whole.

The environmental sustainability problem has proven difficult to solve. The modern environmental movement has attempted to solve the problem in a large variety of ways. But little progress has been made, as shown by severe ecological footprint overshoot and lack of sufficient progress on the climate change problem. Something within the human system is preventing change to a sustainable mode of behavior. That system trait is systemic change resistance. Change resistance is also known as organizational resistance, barriers to change, or policy resistance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eco-economic decoupling</span> Economy able to grow without corresponding increases in environmental pressure

In economic and environmental fields, decoupling refers to an economy that would be able to grow without corresponding increases in environmental pressure. In many economies, increasing production (GDP) raises pressure on the environment. An economy that would be able to sustain economic growth while reducing the amount of resources such as water or fossil fuels used and delink environmental deterioration at the same time would be said to be decoupled. Environmental pressure is often measured using emissions of pollutants, and decoupling is often measured by the emission intensity of economic output.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainable population</span> Proposed sustainable human population of Earth

Sustainable population refers to a proposed sustainable human population of Earth or a particular region of Earth, such as a nation or continent. Estimates vary widely, with estimates based on different figures ranging from 0.65 billion people to 9.8 billion, with 8 billion people being a typical estimate. Projections of population growth, evaluations of overconsumption and associated human pressures on the environment have led to some to advocate for what they consider a sustainable population. Proposed policy solutions vary, including sustainable development, female education, family planning and broad human population planning.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ecological overshoot</span> Demands on ecosystem exceeding regeneration

Ecological overshoot is the phenomenon which occurs when the demands made on a natural ecosystem exceed its regenerative capacity. Global ecological overshoot occurs when the demands made by humanity exceed what the biosphere of Earth can provide through its capacity for renewal.

References

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