List of recessions in the United States

Last updated

Bank run on the Seamen's Savings Bank during the panic of 1857 Run on the Seamen's Savings' Bank during the Panic of 1857.png
Bank run on the Seamen's Savings Bank during the panic of 1857

There have been as many as 48 recessions in the United States dating back to the Articles of Confederation, and although economists and historians dispute certain 19th-century recessions, [1] the consensus view among economists and historians is that "The cyclical volatility of GDP and unemployment was greater before the Great Depression than it has been since the end of World War II." [2] Cycles in the country's agricultural production, industrial production, consumption, business investment, and the health of the banking industry contribute to these declines. U.S. recessions have increasingly affected economies on a worldwide scale, especially as countries' economies become more intertwined.

Contents

The unofficial beginning and ending dates of recessions in the United States have been defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), an American private nonprofit research organization. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales". [3] [lower-alpha 1]

In the 19th century, recessions frequently coincided with financial crises. Determining the occurrence of pre-20th-century recessions is more difficult due to the dearth of economic statistics, so scholars rely on historical accounts of economic activity, such as contemporary newspapers or business ledgers. Although the NBER does not date recessions before 1857, economists customarily extrapolate dates of U.S. recessions back to 1790 from business annals based on various contemporary descriptions. Their work is aided by historical patterns, in that recessions often follow external shocks to the economic system such as wars and variations in the weather affecting agriculture, as well as banking crises. [5]

Major modern economic statistics, such as unemployment and GDP, were not compiled on a regular and standardized basis until after World War II. The average duration of the 11 recessions between 1945 and 2001 is 10 months, compared to 18 months for recessions between 1919 and 1945, and 22 months for recessions from 1854 to 1919. [6] Because of the great changes in the economy over the centuries, it is difficult to compare the severity of modern recessions to early recessions. [7] Before the COVID-19 recession began in March 2020, no post-World War II era had come anywhere near the depth of the Great Depression, which lasted from 1929 until 1941 (which included a bull market between 1933 and 1937) and was caused by the 1929 crash of the stock market and other factors.

Early recessions and crises (1785–1836)

Attempts have been made to date recessions in America beginning in 1790. These periods of recession were not identified until the 1920s. To construct the dates, researchers studied business annals during the period and constructed time series of the data. The earliest recessions for which there is the most certainty are those that coincide with major financial crises. [8] [9]

Beginning in 1835, an index of business activity by the Cleveland Trust Company provides data for comparison between recessions. Beginning in 1854, the National Bureau of Economic Research dates recession peaks and troughs to the month. However, a standardized index does not exist for the earliest recessions. [8]

In 1791, Congress chartered the First Bank of the United States to handle the country's financial needs. The bank had some functions of a modern central bank, although it was responsible for only 20% of the young country's currency. In 1811 the bank's charter lapsed, but it was replaced by the Second Bank of the United States, which lasted from 1816 to 1836. [9]

NameDates [lower-alpha 2] DurationTime since previous recessionCharacteristics
Panic of 17851785–1788~4 yearsThe panic of 1785, which lasted until 1788, ended the business boom that followed the American Revolution. The causes of the crisis lay in the overexpansion and debts incurred after the victory at Yorktown, a postwar deflation, competition in the manufacturing sector from Britain, and lack of adequate credit and a sound currency. The downturn was exacerbated by the absence of any significant interstate trade. Other factors were the British refusal to conclude a commercial treaty, and actual and pending defaults among debtor groups. The panic among business and propertied groups led to the demand for a stronger federal government. [11]
Copper Panic of 1789 1789–1793~4 years~0 yearsLoss of confidence in copper coins due to debasement and counterfeiting led to commercial freeze up that halted the economy of several northern States and was not alleviated until the introduction of new paper money to restore confidence. [12]
Panic of 1792 1792~2 months~0 yearsIts causes included the extension of credit and excessive speculation. The panic was largely solved by providing banks the necessary funds to make open market purchases. [13]
Panic of 1796–1797 1796–1799~3 years~4 yearsJust as a land speculation bubble was bursting, deflation from the Bank of England (which was facing insolvency because of the cost of Great Britain's involvement in the French Revolutionary Wars) crossed to North America and disrupted commercial and real estate markets in the United States and the Caribbean, and caused a major financial panic. [14] Prosperity continued in the Southern United States, but economic activity was stagnant in the Northern United States for three years. The young United States engaged in the Quasi-War with France. [9]
1802–1804 recession1802–1804~2 years~3 yearsA boom of war-time activity led to a decline after the Peace of Amiens ended the war between the United Kingdom and France. Commodity prices fell dramatically. Trade was disrupted by pirates, leading to the First Barbary War. [9]
Depression of 18071807–1810~3 years~3 yearsThe Embargo Act of 1807 was passed by the United States Congress under President Thomas Jefferson as tensions increased with the United Kingdom. Along with trade restrictions imposed by the British, shipping-related industries were hard hit. The Federalists fought the embargo and allowed smuggling to take place in New England. Trade volumes, commodity prices and securities prices all began to fall. Macon's Bill Number 2 ended the embargoes in May 1810, and a recovery started. [9]
1812 recession1812~6 months~18 monthsThe United States entered a brief recession at the beginning of 1812. The decline was brief primarily because the United States soon increased production to fight the War of 1812, which began June 18, 1812. [15]
1815–1821 depression 1815–1821~6 years~3 yearsShortly after the war ended on March 23, 1815, the United States entered a period of financial panic as bank notes rapidly depreciated because of inflation following the war. The 1815 panic was followed by several years of mild depression, and then a major financial crisis – the Panic of 1819, which featured widespread foreclosures, bank failures, unemployment, a collapse in real estate prices, and a slump in agriculture and manufacturing. [9]
1822–1823 recession1822–1823~1 year~1 yearAfter only a mild recovery following the lengthy 1815–1821 depression, commodity prices hit a peak in March 1822 and began to fall. Many businesses failed, unemployment rose and an increase in imports worsened the trade balance. [9]
1825–1826 recession1825–1826~1 year~2 yearsThe Panic of 1825, a stock crash following a bubble of speculative investments in Latin America led to a decline in business activity in the United States and England. The recession coincided with a major panic, the date of which may be more easily determined than general cycle changes associated with other recessions. [8]
1828–1829 recession1828–1829~1 year~2 yearsIn 1826, England forbade the United States to trade with English colonies, and in 1827, the United States adopted a counter-prohibition. Trade declined, just as credit became tight for manufacturers in New England. [9]
1833–1834 recession1833–1834~1 year~4 yearsThe United States' economy declined moderately in 1833–34. News accounts of the time confirm the slowdown. The subsequent expansion was driven by land speculation. [16]

Free Banking Era to the Great Depression (1836–1929)

A swarm gathers on Wall Street during the Panic of 1907. Compared to today, the era from 1834 to the Great Depression was characterized by relatively severe and more frequent banking panics and recessions. 1907 Panic.png
A swarm gathers on Wall Street during the Panic of 1907. Compared to today, the era from 1834 to the Great Depression was characterized by relatively severe and more frequent banking panics and recessions.

In the 1830s, U.S. President Andrew Jackson fought to end the Second Bank of the United States. Following the Bank War, the Second Bank lost its charter in 1836. From 1837 to 1862, there was no national presence in banking, but still plenty of state and even local regulation, such as laws against branch banking which prevented diversification. In 1863, in response to financing pressures of the Civil War, Congress passed the National Banking Act, creating nationally chartered banks. Since there was neither a central bank nor deposit insurance during this era, banking panics were common.

The dating of recessions during this period is controversial. Modern economic statistics, such as gross domestic product and unemployment, were not gathered during this period: Victor Zarnowitz evaluated a variety of indices to measure the severity of these recessions.

From 1834 to 1929, one measure of recessions is the Cleveland Trust Company index, which measured business activity and, beginning in 1882, an index of trade and industrial activity was available, which can be used to compare recessions. [lower-alpha 3]

NameDates [lower-alpha 2] DurationTime since previous recessionBusiness activity [lower-alpha 3] Trade & industrial activity [lower-alpha 3] Characteristics
1836–1838 recession —~2 years~2 years−32.8%—A sharp downturn in the American economy was caused by bank failures, lack of confidence in the paper currency, tightening of English Credit, crop failures and Jacksonian policy. [17] Speculation markets were greatly affected when American banks stopped payment in specie (gold and silver coinage). [1] [18] Over 600 banks failed in this period. In the Southern United States, the cotton market completely collapsed. [9] See: Panic of 1837.
late 1839–late 1843 recession—~4 years~1 year−34.3%—This was one of the longest and deepest depressions of the 19th century: it was a period of pronounced deflation and massive defaults on debt. The Cleveland Trust Company Index showed the economy spent 68 months below its trend, and only nine months above it, and declined 34.3% during this depression. [19]
1845–late 1846 recession—~1 year~2 years−5.9%—This recession was mild enough that it may have only been a slowdown in the growth cycle. One theory holds that this would have been a recession, except the United States began to gear up for the Mexican–American War, which began April 25, 1846. [16]
1847–1848 recessionlate 1847 – late 1848~1 year~1 year−19.7%—The Cleveland Trust Company Index declined 19.7% during 1847 and 1848. It is associated with a financial crisis in Great Britain. [19] [20]
1853–1854 recession1853 – December 1854~1 year~5 years−18.4%—Interest rates rose in this period, contributing to a decrease in railroad investment. Security prices fell during this period. With the exception of falling business investment, there is little evidence of contraction in this period. [1]
Panic of 1857 June 1857 – December 18581 year 6 months2 years 6 months−23.1%—The failure of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company burst a European speculative bubble in United States' railroads and caused a loss of confidence in American banks. Over 5,000 businesses failed within the first year of the Panic, and unemployment was accompanied by protest meetings in urban areas. This recession was one of the main causes of the American Civil War, which would begin in 1861 and end in 1865. This is the earliest recession to which the NBER assigns specific months (rather than years) for the peak and trough. [6] [8] [21]
1860–1861 recessionOctober 1860 – June 18618 months1 year 10 months−14.5%—There was a mild recession before the American Civil War, which began on April 12, 1861, although the recession was only limited to some areas. Zarnowitz says the data generally show a contraction occurred in this period, but it was quite mild. [19] A financial panic was narrowly averted in 1860 by the first use of clearing house certificates between banks. [9]
1865–1867 recessionApril 1865 – December 18672 years 8 months3 years 10 months−23.8%—The American Civil War ended in April 1865, and the country entered a lengthy period of general deflation that lasted until 1896. The United States occasionally experienced periods of recession during the Reconstruction Era. Production increased in the years following the Civil War, but the country still had financial difficulties. [19] The post-war period coincided with a period of some international financial instability.
1869–1870 recessionJune 1869 – December 18701 year 6 months1 year 6 months−9.7%—A few years after the Civil War, a short recession occurred. It was unusual since it came amid a period when railroad investment was greatly accelerating, even producing the First transcontinental railroad. The railroads built in this period opened up the interior of the country, giving birth to the Farmers' movement. The recession may be explained partly by ongoing financial difficulties following the war, which discouraged businesses from building up inventories. [19] Several months into the recession, there was a major financial panic.
Panic of 1873 and the Long Depression October 1873 – March 18795 years 5 months2 years 10 months−33.6% (−27.3%) [lower-alpha 3] —Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of Jay Cooke & Company, the largest bank in the United States, which burst the post-Civil War speculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests. [22] The deflation and wage cuts of the era led to labor turmoil, such as the Great Railroad Strike of 1877. In 1879, the United States returned to the gold standard with the Specie Payment Resumption Act. This is the longest period of economic contraction recognized by the NBER, though the Long Depression is sometimes held to be the entire period from October 1873 to December 1896. [23] [24]
Depression of 1882–1885 March 1882 – May 18853 years 2 months3 years−32.8%−24.6%Like the Long Depression that preceded it, the recession of 1882–1885 was more of a price depression than a production depression. From 1879 to 1882, there had been a boom in railroad construction which came to an end, resulting in a decline in both railroad construction and in related industries, particularly iron and steel. [25] A major economic event during the recession was the Panic of 1884.
1887–1888 recessionMarch 1887 – April 18881 year 1 month1 year 10 months−14.6%−8.2%Investments in railroads and buildings weakened during this period. This slowdown was so mild that it is not always considered a recession. Contemporary accounts apparently indicate it was considered a slight recession. [26]
1890–1891 recessionJuly 1890 – May 189110 months1 year 5 months−22.1%−11.7%Although shorter than the recession in 1887–1888 and still modest, a slowdown in 1890–1891 was somewhat more pronounced than the preceding recession. International monetary disturbances are blamed for this recession, such as the Panic of 1890 in the United Kingdom. [26]
Panic of 1893 January 1893 – June 18941 year 5 months1 year 8 months−37.3%−29.7%The failure of the United States Reading Railroad and withdrawal of European investment led to a stock market and banking collapse: this Panic was also precipitated in part by a run on the gold supply. The Treasury had to issue bonds to purchase enough gold. Profits, investment and income all fell, leading to political instability, the height of the U.S. populist movement and the Free Silver movement. [27] Estimates on unemployment vary, it may have peaked anywhere from 8.2 to 18.4%. [28]
Panic of 1896 December 1895 – June 18971 year 6 months1 year 6 months−25.2%−20.8%The period of 1893–1897 is seen as a generally depressed cycle that had a short spurt of growth in the middle, following the Panic of 1893. Production shrank and deflation reigned. [26]
1899–1900 recessionJune 1899 – December 19001 year 6 months2 years−15.5%−8.8%This was a mild recession in the period of general growth beginning after 1897. Evidence for a recession in this period does not show up in some annual data series. [26]
1902–1904 recessionSeptember 1902 – August 19041 year 11 months1 year 9 months−16.2%−17.1%Though not severe, this downturn lasted for nearly two years and saw a distinct decline in the national product. Industrial and commercial production both declined, albeit fairly modestly. [26] The recession came about a year after a 1901 stock crash.
Panic of 1907 May 1907 – June 19081 year 1 month2 years 9 months−29.2%−31.0%A run on Knickerbocker Trust Company deposits on October 22, 1907, set events in motion that would lead to a severe monetary contraction. The fallout from the panic led to Congress creating the Federal Reserve System. [29]
Panic of 1910–1911 January 1910 – January 19122 years1 year 7 months−14.7%−10.6%This was a mild but lengthy recession. The national product grew by less than 1%, and commercial activity and industrial activity declined. The period was also marked by deflation. [26]
Recession of 1913–1914January 1913 – December 19141 year 11 months1 year−25.9%−19.8%Productions and real income declined during this period and were not offset until the start of World War I increased demand. [26] Incidentally, the Federal Reserve Act was signed during this recession, creating the Federal Reserve System, the culmination of a sequence of events following the Panic of 1907. [29] Financial crisis of 1914 occurred following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary, the subsequent July Crisis, and British declaration of war on Germany, which led to U.S. Treasury Secretary William Gibbs McAdoo to close the New York Stock Exchange beginning on July 31. [30]
Post-World War I recession August 1918 – March 19197 months3 years 8 months−24.5%−14.1%Severe hyperinflation in Europe took place over production in North America. This was a brief but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This, in turn, caused high unemployment. [31]
Depression of 1920–1921 January 1920 – July 19211 year 6 months10 months−38.1%−32.7%The 1921 recession began a mere 10 months after the post-World War I recession, as the economy continued working through the shift to a peacetime economy. The recession was short, but extremely painful. The year 1920 was the single most deflationary year in American history; production, however, did not fall as much as might be expected from the deflation. GNP may have declined between 2.5 and 7 percent, even as wholesale prices declined by 36.8%. [32] The economy had a strong recovery following the recession. [33]
1923–1924 recessionMay 1923 – June 19241 year 2 months2 years−25.4%−22.7%From the depression of 1920–1921 until the Great Depression, an era dubbed the Roaring Twenties, the economy was generally expanding. Industrial production declined in 1923–24, but on the whole this was a mild recession. [26] [34] [35] [36]
1926–1927 recessionOctober 1926 – November 19271 year 1 month2 years 3 months−12.2%−10.0%This was an unusual and mild recession, thought to be caused largely because Henry Ford closed production in his factories for six months to switch from production of the Model T to the Model A. Charles P. Kindleberger says the period from 1925 to the start of the Great Depression is best thought of as a boom, and this minor recession just proof that the boom "was not general, uninterrupted or extensive". [37] [34] [38] [36]

Great Depression onward (1929–present)

Unemployed men standing in line outside a depression soup kitchen in Chicago 1931. Following the severe Great Depression, the post-World War II economy has seen long expansions and, for the most part, less severe recessions than in earlier American history. Unemployed men queued outside a depression soup kitchen opened in Chicago by Al Capone, 02-1931 - NARA - 541927.jpg
Unemployed men standing in line outside a depression soup kitchen in Chicago 1931. Following the severe Great Depression, the post-World War II economy has seen long expansions and, for the most part, less severe recessions than in earlier American history.
Annualized GDP change from 1923 to 2009. Data are annual from 1923 to 1946 and quarterly from 1947 to the second quarter of 2009. GDP growth 1923-2009.jpg
Annualized GDP change from 1923 to 2009. Data are annual from 1923 to 1946 and quarterly from 1947 to the second quarter of 2009.

Following the end of World War II and the large adjustment as the economy adjusted from wartime to peacetime in 1945, the collection of many economic indicators, such as unemployment and GDP, became standardized. Recessions after World War II may be compared to each other much more easily than previous recessions because of these available data. The listed dates and durations are from the official chronology of the National Bureau of Economic Research. [6] GDP data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, unemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (after 1948). The unemployment rate often reaches a peak associated with a recession after the recession has officially ended. [39]

Until the start of the COVID-19 recession in 2020, no post-World War II era came anywhere near the depth of the Great Depression. In the Great Depression, GDP fell by 27% (the deepest after demobilization is the recession beginning in December 2007, during which GDP had fallen 5.1% by the second quarter of 2009) and the unemployment rate reached 24.9% (the highest since was the 10.8% rate reached during the 1981–1982 recession). [40]

The National Bureau of Economic Research dates recessions on a monthly basis back to 1854; according to their chronology, from 1854 to 1919, there were 16 cycles. The average recession lasted 22 months, and the average expansion 27. From 1919 to 1945, there were six cycles; recessions lasted an average 18 months and expansions for 35. From 1945 to 2001, and 10 cycles, recessions lasted an average 10 months and expansions an average of 57 months. [6] This has prompted some economists to declare that the business cycle has become less severe. [41]

Many factors that may have contributed to this moderation including the establishment of deposit insurance in the form of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933 and increased regulation of the banking sector. [42] [43] [44] Other changes include the use of fiscal policy in the form of automatic stabilizers to alleviate cyclical volatility. [45] [46] The creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1913 has been disputed as a source of stability with it and its policies having mixed successes. [47] [48] Since the early 1980s the sources of the Great Moderation has been attributed to numerous causes including public policy, industry practices, technology, and even good luck. [49] [50]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The rule of thumb defining recession as two quarters of negative GDP growth is not used by NBER. [4] The NBER looks for monthly dating (GDP is a quarterly figure) and GDP growth will sometimes be positive even in clear periods of decline, e.g. in the second quarter of 1918, GDP growth was slightly positive even in the middle of the severe 1973–1975 recession.
  2. 1 2 The NBER's monthly chronology of recessions begins in 1854. In the 1920s, the economist Willard Thorp, working for the NBER, dated business cycles back to 1790 (with the first recession beginning in 1796). Thorp's dates remain the standard for this period. [10] Thorp's crude annual dates are not directly comparable to the NBER's monthly dates i.e. a two-year recession from the annual dates could be many months shorter or longer than 24. [9]
  3. 1 2 3 4 The peak to trough decline in business activity and trade and industrial activity during a given recession. From 1834 to 1882, Zarnowitz uses the Cleveland Trust Company index. Beginning in 1873, he uses a composite of three trend-adjusted indices – the Cleveland Trust Company Index, the Persons Index which begins in 1875 and a business activity index from AT&T Corporation beginning in 1877. For the Long Depression, both the Cleveland Trust Company index, and the composite are given. The index for trade and industrial activity is the Axe and Houghton Index, beginning in February 1879. It is based on pig iron production, bank clearings (outside New York City), import volume, and the revenue per mile earned by different railroads. [1]

Related Research Articles

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster.

An economic depression is a period of carried long-term economic downturn that is the result of lowered economic activity in one major or more national economies. Economic depression maybe related to one specific country where there is some economic crisis that has worsened but most often reflexes historically the American Great Depression and similar economic status that may be recognized as existing at some country, several countries or even in many countries. It is often understood in economics that economic crisis and the following recession that maybe named economic depression are part of economic cycles where the slowdown of the economy follows the economic growth and vice versa. It is a result of more severe economic problems or a downturn than the recession itself, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of the normal business cycle of growing economy.

Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms. There are numerous specific definitions of what constitutes a business cycle. The simplest and most naïve characterization comes from regarding recessions as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. More satisfactory classifications are provided by, first including more economic indicators and second by looking for more informative data patterns than the ad hoc 2 quarter definition.

The Long Depression was a worldwide price and economic recession, beginning in 1873 and running either through March 1879, or 1896, depending on the metrics used. It was most severe in Europe and the United States, which had been experiencing strong economic growth fueled by the Second Industrial Revolution in the decade following the American Civil War. The episode was labeled the "Great Depression" at the time, and it held that designation until the Great Depression of the 1930s. Though it marked a period of general deflation and a general contraction, it did not have the severe economic retrogression of the Great Depression.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Bureau of Economic Research</span> American private nonprofit research organization

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community". The NBER is known for proposing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

The post–World War I recession was an economic recession that hit much of the world in the aftermath of World War I. In many nations, especially in North America, economic growth continued and even accelerated during World War I as nations mobilized their economies to fight the war in Europe. After the war ended, the global economy began to decline. In the United States, 1918–1919 saw a modest economic retreat, but the second part of 1919 saw a mild recovery. A more severe recession hit the United States in 1920 and 1921, when the global economy fell very sharply.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Early 2000s recession</span> Recession that occurred in the early 2000s

The early 2000s recession was a decline in economic activity which mainly occurred in developed countries. The recession affected the European Union during 2000 and 2001 and the United States from March to November 2001. The UK, Canada and Australia avoided the recession, while Russia, a nation that did not experience prosperity during the 1990s, began to recover from it. Japan's 1990s recession continued.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Baring crisis</span> International recession in 1890

The Baring crisis or the Panic of 1890 was an acute recession. Although less serious than other panics of the era, it is the nineteenth century’s most famous sovereign debt crisis, and the 17th largest decline in U.S. stock market history.

Victor Zarnowitz was a leading scholar on business cycles, indicators, and forecast evaluation. Zarnowitz was Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor to The Conference Board. He was professor emeritus of Economics and Finance, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

The Panic of 1847 was a major British commercial and banking crisis, possibly triggered by the announcement in early March 1847 of government borrowing to pay for relief to combat the Great Famine in Ireland. It is also associated with the end of the 1840s railway industry boom and the failure of many non-bank lenders. The crisis was composed of two phases, one in April 1847 and one in October 1847, which was more serious and known as 'The Week of Terror'.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Great Recession</span> Global economic decline from 2007 to 2009

The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline observed in national economies globally, i.e. a recession, that occurred in the late 2000s. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression. One result was a serious disruption of normal international relations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Depression of 1920–1921</span> Sharp deflationary recession

The Depression of 1920–1921 was a sharp deflationary recession in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries, beginning 14 months after the end of World War I. It lasted from January 1920 to July 1921. The extent of the deflation was not only large, but large relative to the accompanying decline in real product.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1973–1975 recession</span> Period of economic stagnation in the Western world

The 1973–1975 recession or 1970s recession was a period of economic stagnation in much of the Western world during the 1970s, putting an end to the overall post–World War II economic expansion. It differed from many previous recessions by involving stagflation, in which high unemployment and high inflation existed simultaneously.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Recession of 1960–1961</span> Economic downturn in the United States

The recession of 1960–1961 was a recession in the United States. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession lasted for 10 months, beginning in April 1960 and ending in February 1961. The recession preceded the third-longest economic expansion in U.S. history, from February 1961 until the beginning of the recession of 1969–1970 in December 1968.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Recession of 1949</span> Economic downturn in the United States

The recession of 1949 was a downturn in the United States lasting for 11 months. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession began in November 1948 and lasted until October 1949.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Depression of 1882–1885</span>

The Depression of 1882–1885, or Recession of 1882–1885, was an economic contraction in the United States that lasted from March 1882 to May 1885, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Lasting 38 months, it was the third-longest recession in the NBER's chronology of business cycles since 1854. Only the Great Depression (1929-1941) and the Long Depression (1873–1879) were longer.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) based in New York City, is an independent institute formed in 1996 by Geoffrey H. Moore, Anirvan Banerji, and Lakshman Achuthan. It provides economic modeling, financial databases, economic forecasting, and market cycles services to investment managers, business executives, and government policymakers.

In the United States, the Great Recession was a severe financial crisis combined with a deep recession. While the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, it took many years for the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels of employment and output. This slow recovery was due in part to households and financial institutions paying off debts accumulated in the years preceding the crisis along with restrained government spending following initial stimulus efforts. It followed the bursting of the housing bubble, the housing market correction and subprime mortgage crisis.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 Zarnowitz 1996 , pp. 221–226
  2. ↑ Whaples, Robert (March 1995). "Where Is There Consensus Among American Economic Historians? The Results of a Survey on Forty Propositions" (PDF). The Journal of Economic History . 55 (1): 139–154. doi:10.1017/S0022050700040602. JSTOR   2123771. S2CID   145691938. The current consensus is that the volatility of GNP and unemployment were greater before the Great Depression than they have been since the end of World War II.
  3. ↑ Hall, Robert (October 21, 2003). "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure". National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved February 29, 2008.
  4. ↑ "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions". National Bureau of Economic Research . Retrieved October 21, 2009.
  5. ↑ Brent Moulton (December 10, 2003). "Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts 1929 through Second Quarter 2003". Bureau of Economic Analysis. Archived from the original on 2008-09-20. Retrieved February 29, 2008.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "NBER Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions". NBER. Retrieved October 1, 2008.
  7. ↑ Moore, Geoffrey H.; Zarnowitz, Victor (1986). "Appendix A The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies". The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change. University of Chicago Press. pp. 735–780. in Gordon 1986 , pp. 743–745
  8. 1 2 3 4 Moore, Geoffrey H.; Zarnowitz, Victor (1986). "Appendix A The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies". The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change. University of Chicago Press. pp. 735–780. in Gordon 1986 , p. 747
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Thorp, Willard Long (1926). Business Annals. National Bureau of Economic Research, Incorporated. pp. 113–123. ISBN   978-0-87014-007-5.{{cite book}}: |work= ignored (help)
  10. ↑ Glasner & Cooley 1997, p. 732
  11. ↑ "Financial Panics | Encyclopedia.com". www.encyclopedia.com. Retrieved 2019-04-10.
  12. ↑ "Copper Panic". www.coins.nd.edu. Retrieved 2017-07-21.
  13. ↑ Cowen, David; Sylla, Richard; Wright, Robert (2006), "The US Panic of 1792: Financial Crisis Management and the Lender of Last Resort", New York University, working paper
  14. ↑ Chew, Richard S. (December 2005). "Certain Victims of an International Contagion: The Panic of 1797 and the Hard Times of the Late 1790s in Baltimore". Journal of the Early Republic. 25 (4): 565–613. doi:10.1353/jer.2005.0069. S2CID   154865404.
  15. ↑ Moore, Geoffrey H.; Zarnowitz, Victor (1986). "Appendix A The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies". The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change. University of Chicago Press. pp. 735–780. in Gordon 1986 , p. 746
  16. 1 2 Zarnowitz 1996 , p. 222
  17. ↑ "Andrew Jackson, Banks, and the Panic of 1837". lehrmaninstitute.org. Retrieved 2017-07-22. Bray Hammond wrote that Jackson's second term 'fiscal policy...was a product of the current over-trading, inflation, and speculation, but also a contributor thereto. For these evils, which Andrew Jackson aimlessly deplored, could not have been more effectively promoted by Jacksonian policies had that been their purpose. Thus retirement of the public debt, in which the General took great pride, as if it were a personal achievement – as indeed it was in a sense because the burden of it fell inequitably on the southern planters, of whom he was one closed an important field of conservative investment and returned funds to investors who then had to find other uses for them. In consequence the demand for other investments was intensified and their prices driven up.'
  18. ↑ Morris, Charles (1902). The Great Republic By the Master Historians – Volumes I, II, III, IV. R.S. Belcher.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 Zarnowitz 1996 , pp. 222–223
  20. ↑ Moore, Geoffrey H.; Zarnowitz, Victor (1986). "Appendix A The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies". The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change. University of Chicago Press. pp. 735–780. in Gordon 1986 , pp. 744–745
  21. ↑ Huston, James L. (1987). The Panic of 1857 and the Coming of the Civil War . Louisiana State University Press. ISBN   978-0-8071-2492-5.
  22. ↑ Foner, Eric (1990). A Short History of Reconstruction. Harper Perennial. ISBN   978-0-06-096431-3.
  23. ↑ Capie, Forrest; Wood, Geoffrey (1997). "Great Depression of 1873–1896". Business cycles and depressions: an encyclopedia. in Glasner & Cooley 1997 , pp. 148–149
  24. ↑ Moseley, Fred (1997). "Depression of 1873–1879". Business cycles and depressions: an encyclopedia. in Glasner & Cooley 1997 , pp. 148–149
  25. ↑ Fels, Rendigs (1952). "The American Business Cycle of 1879–1885". The Journal of Political Economy. 60 (1): 60–75. doi:10.1086/257151. JSTOR   1826297. S2CID   153791133.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Zarnowitz 1996 , pp. 226–229
  27. ↑ Whitten, David (August 14, 2001). "Depression of 1893". In Whaples, Robert (ed.). EH.Net Encyclopedia. Archived from the original on April 27, 2009. Retrieved October 5, 2009.
  28. ↑ Lk (2014-02-20). "Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Realist Alternative to the Modern Left: US Unemployment in the 1890s Again". Social Democracy for the 21st Century. Retrieved 2017-07-21.
  29. 1 2 Bruner, Robert F.; Carr, Sean D. (2007). The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN   978-0-470-15263-8.
  30. ↑ Silber, William L. (2007). When Washington Shut Down Wall Street: The Great Financial Crisis of 1915 and the Origins of America's Monetary Supremacy. Princeton University Press.
  31. ↑ Goldberg, David J. (1999). Discontented America: The United States in the 1920s. The Johns Hopkins University Press. ISBN   978-0-8018-6004-1.
  32. ↑ Vernon, J.R. (1991). "The 1920–1921 Deflation: The Role of Aggregate Supply". Economic Inquiry. 29 (3): 572–580. doi:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb00847.x. Archived from the original on 2010-11-13.
  33. ↑ O'Brien, Anthony Patrick (1997). "Depression of 1920–1921". Business cycles and depressions: an encyclopedia. in Glasner & Cooley 1997 , pp. 151–153
  34. 1 2 Friedman, Milton; Schwartz, Anna J. (1993) [1963]. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. pp. 296–298. ISBN   978-0691003542.
  35. ↑ Meltzer, Allan H. (2003). A History of the Federal Reserve – Volume 1: 1913–1951. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. pp. 197–205. ISBN   978-0226520001.
  36. 1 2 Cannadine, David (2007). Mellon: An American Life. New York: Alfred A. Knopf. pp.  313–357. ISBN   978-0679450320.
  37. ↑ Kindleberger, Charles P. (1973). The World in Depression, 1929–39. Berkeley: University of California Press. p.  43. ISBN   978-0-520-05592-6.
  38. ↑ Meltzer, Allan H. (2003). A History of the Federal Reserve – Volume 1: 1913–1951. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. pp. 215–221. ISBN   978-0226520001.
  39. ↑ "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey", Bureau of Labor Statistics , retrieved September 19, 2009
  40. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Labonte, Marc (January 10, 2002). "The Current Economic Recession" (PDF). Congressional Research Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-10-10. Retrieved 2009-10-05.
  41. ↑ Knoop 2004 , pp. 166–171
  42. ↑ Barth, J.R.; Caprio Jr, G.; Levine, R. (2004), "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?", Journal of Financial intermediation, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 205–248
  43. ↑ Kareken, J.H.; Wallace, N. (1978), "Deposit insurance and bank regulation: A partial-equilibrium exposition", Journal of Business, pp. 413–438
  44. ↑ Bhattacharya, S.; Boot, A.W.; Thakor, A.V. (1998), The economics of bank regulation. Journal of money, credit and banking, pp. 745–770
  45. ↑ Cohen, D.; Follette, G. (1999), The automatic stabilizers: Quietly doing their thing
  46. ↑ McKay, A.; Reis, R. (2016), "The role of automatic stabilizers in the US business cycle", Econometrica, vol. 84, no. 1, pp. 141–194
  47. ↑ Goodfriend, M. (2011), "Central banking in the credit turmoil: An assessment of Federal Reserve practice", Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 1–12
  48. ↑ Selgin, G.; Lastrapes, W.D.; White, L.H. (2012), "Has the Fed been a failure?", Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 569–596
  49. ↑ Ahmed, S.; Levin, A.; Wilson, B.A. (2004), "Recent US macroeconomic stability: good policies, good practices, or good luck?", Review of economics and statistics, vol. 86, no. 3, pp. 824–832
  50. ↑ Bernanke, B. (2004), The great moderation
  51. 1 2 Coen, Robert M. "Labor Force and Unemployment in the 1920s and 1930s: A Re-examination Based on Postwar Experience." The Review of Economics and Statistics (1973): 46–55.
  52. ↑ Vedder, Richard K.; Gallaway, Lowell E. (1993). Out of Work: Unemployment and Government in Twentieth-Century America. Holmes and Meier. p. 77.
  53. ↑ Friedman, Milton (1970), "The counter-revolution in monetary theory: first Wincott memorial lecture, delivered at the Senate House, University of London, 16 September 1970", Institute of Economic Affairs, vol. 33
  54. ↑ Irwin, Douglas A. (September 2010), "Did France Cause the Great Depression?", National Bureau of Economic Research, doi: 10.3386/w16350 , S2CID   153646004
  55. ↑ Eichengreen, Barry; Temin, Peter (2000). "The gold standard and the great depression" (PDF). Contemporary European History. 9 (2): 183–207. doi:10.1017/s0960777300002010. S2CID   158383956.
  56. ↑ Irwin, Douglas A. (2011), Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression, Princeton University Press
  57. ↑ Romer, Christina D. (1992). "What ended the great depression?". The Journal of Economic History. 52 (4): 757–784. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.207.844 . doi:10.1017/s002205070001189x.
  58. 1 2 Lebergott, Stanley (1957). "Annual Estimates of Unemployment in the United States, 1900–1954" (PDF). The Measurement and Behavior of Unemployment. National Bureau of Economic Research. pp. 211–242.
  59. ↑ Smiley, W. Gene (1997). "Depression of 1937–1938". Business Cycles and Depressions: An Encyclopedia. in Glasner & Cooley 1997 , pp. 154–155
  60. ↑ Zarnowitz 1996 , p. 229
  61. ↑ Rosnick, David (2 June 2010). "Clearing Up Some Facts About the Depression of 1946" . Retrieved 2017-07-21.
  62. ↑ Zarnowitz 1996 , p. 416
  63. ↑ Dell, S. (June 1957). "The United States Recession of 1953/54: A Comment". The Economic Journal. 67 (266): 338–339. doi:10.2307/2227810. JSTOR   2227810.
  64. ↑ Holmans, A.E. (1958). "The Eisenhower Administration and the Recession, 1953–55". Oxford Economic Papers. 10 (1): 34–54. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a040794.
  65. ↑ Merrill, Karen R. (2007). The Oil Crisis of 1973–1974: A Brief History with Documents. Bedford/St. Martin's. ISBN   978-0-312-40922-7.
  66. ↑ Knoop 2004 , p. 163
  67. ↑ "The recession is a pretty picture". BBC. August 27, 2009. Retrieved 2009-10-04.
  68. ↑ "Oil Squeeze". Time. February 5, 1979. Archived from the original on November 23, 2007. Retrieved February 29, 2008.
  69. ↑ Rattner, Steven (January 5, 1981). "Federal Reserve sees little growth in '81 with continued high rates". New York Times. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved February 29, 2008.
  70. ↑ "NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Determines that Recession Ended in March 1991". NBER. 22 December 1992. Retrieved March 4, 2008.
  71. ↑ Walsh, Carl E. (1993). "What Caused the 1990–1991 Recession" (PDF). Economic Review (2).
  72. ↑ Knoop 2004 , pp. 165–166
  73. ↑ "The Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001". National Bureau of Economic Research. November 26, 2001.
  74. ↑ Kliesen, Kevin L. (2003). "The 2001 Recession: How Was It Different and What Developments May Have Caused It?" (PDF). Review (September): 23–28. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-11-22.
  75. ↑ When Did the Great Recession End?, archived from the original on 2012-05-11, retrieved 2012-03-13
  76. ↑ "Business Cycle Dating".
  77. ↑ "Unemployment Rate: Percent: SA".
  78. ↑ "How did the recent GDP revisions change the picture of the 2007–2009 recession and the recovery?" . Retrieved 2021-09-29.
  79. ↑ 2010 Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2010, retrieved September 20, 2010
  80. ↑ Stark, Betsy (9 March 2010). "Home> Money Tracking the Dow One Year After Rock Bottom". ABC news network. Retrieved 2013-09-22.
  81. ↑ Tappe, Anneken (19 July 2021). "The covid recession is officially over, and it was the shortest on record". CNN.
  82. ↑ US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions, National Bureau of Economic Research
  83. 1 2 Determination of the April 2022 Trough in US Economic Activity, 19 July 2021
  84. ↑ "Civilian Unemployment Rate".
  85. ↑ "Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update". 2021. Retrieved 2021-09-29.
  86. ↑ Cohen, Patricia; Hsu, Tiffany (April 9, 2020). "'Sudden Black Hole' for the Economy With Millions More Unemployed". The New York Times.

Sources

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.