Sincere favorite criterion

Last updated

The sincere favorite or no favorite-betrayal criterion is a property of some voting systems, that says voters should have no incentive to vote for someone else over their favorite. [1] It protects voters from having to engage in a kind of strategy called lesser evil voting or decapitation (i.e. removing the "head" off a ballot). [2]

Contents

Most rated voting systems, including score voting, satisfy the criterion. [3] [4] [5] By contrast, instant-runoff, traditional runoffs, plurality, and most other variants of ranked-choice voting (including all strictly-Condorcet-compliant methods) fail this criterion. [4] [6] [7]

Duverger's law says that systems vulnerable to this strategy will typically (though not always) develop two party-systems, as voters will abandon minor-party candidates to support stronger major-party candidates. [8]

Instant-runoff voting fails the favorite-betrayal criterion whenever it fails to elect the Condorcet winner, a situation referred to as center-squeeze.

Definition

The favorite betrayal criterion is defined as follows:

A voting system satisfies the favorite betrayal criterion if there cannot exist a situation where a voter is forced to insincerely list another candidate ahead of their sincere favorite in order obtain a more preferred outcome in the election overall (i.e. the election of a candidate that they prefer to the current winner).

The criterion permits the strategy of insincerely ranking another candidate equal to one's favorite. [1]

Arguments for

The Center for Election Science argues systems that violate the favorite betrayal criterion strongly incentivize voters to cast dishonest ballots, which can make voters feel unsatisfied or frustrated with the results even after having the opportunity to participate in the election. [9] [10] [11]

Other commentators have argued that failing the favorite-betrayal criterion can increase the effectiveness of misinformation campaigns, by allowing major-party candidates to sow doubt as to whether voting honestly for one's favorite is actually the best strategy. [12]

Compliant methods

Rated voting

Because rated voting methods are not affected by Arrow's theorem, they can be both spoilerproof (satisfy IIA) and ensure positive vote weights at the same time. Taken together, these properties imply that increasing the rating of a favorite candidate can never change the result, except by causing the favorite candidate to win; therefore, giving a favorite candidate the maximum level of support is always the optimal strategy.

Examples of systems that are both spoilerproof and monotonic include score voting, approval voting, and highest medians.

Non-compliant methods

Instant-runoff voting

This example shows that instant-runoff voting violates the favorite betrayal criterion. Assume there are four candidates: Amy, Bert, Cindy, and Dan. This election has 41 voters with the following preferences:

# of votersPreferences
10Amy > Bert > Cindy > Dan
6Bert > Amy > Cindy > Dan
5Cindy > Bert > Amy > Dan
20Dan > Amy > Cindy > Bert

Sincere voting

Assuming all voters vote in a sincere way, Cindy is awarded only 5 first place votes and is eliminated first. Her votes are transferred to Bert. In the second round, Amy is eliminated with only 10 votes. Her votes are transferred to Bert as well. Finally, Bert has 21 votes and wins against Dan, who has 20 votes.

Votes in round/
Candidate
1st2nd3rd
Amy1010
Bert61121
Cindy5
Dan202020

Result: Bert wins against Dan, after Cindy and Amy were eliminated.

Favorite betrayal

Now assume two of the voters who favor Amy (marked bold) realize the situation and insincerely vote for Cindy instead of Amy:

# of votersBallots
2Cindy > Amy > Bert > Dan
8Amy > Bert > Cindy > Dan
6Bert > Amy > Cindy > Dan
5Cindy > Bert > Amy > Dan
20Dan > Amy > Cindy > Bert

In this scenario, Cindy has 7 first place votes and so Bert is eliminated first with only 6 first place votes. His votes are transferred to Amy. In the second round, Cindy is eliminated with only 10 votes. Her votes are transferred to Amy as well. Finally, Amy has 21 votes and wins against Dan, who has 20 votes.

Votes in round/
Candidate
1st2nd3rd
Amy81421
Bert6
Cindy77
Dan202020

Result: Amy wins against Dan, after Bert and Cindy has been eliminated.

By listing Cindy ahead of their true favorite, Amy, the two insincere voters obtained a more preferred outcome (causing their favorite candidate to win). There was no way to achieve this without raising another candidate ahead of their sincere favorite. Thus, instant-runoff voting fails the favorite betrayal criterion.

Condorcet methods

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Approval voting</span> Single-winner electoral system

Approval voting is an electoral system in which voters can select any number of candidates instead of selecting only one.

Score voting, sometimes called range voting or average score voting, is an electoral system for single-seat elections. Voters give each candidate a numerical score, and the candidate with the highest average score is elected. Score voting includes the well-known approval voting, but also lets voters give partial (in-between) approval ratings to candidates.

Strategic or tactical voting is a situation where a voter considers the possible ballots cast by other voters in order to maximize their satisfaction with the election's results. For example, in plurality or instant-runoff, a voter may recognize their favorite candidate is unlikely to win and so instead support a candidate they think is more likely to win.

In political science, Duverger's law refers to the observation that political systems with only one winner that fail the sincere favorite criterion typically result in two-party rule. By contrast, systems that do not encourage lesser-evil voting or provide for proportional representation usually have more representation of minor parties in government.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Condorcet method</span> Pairwise-comparison electoral system

A Condorcet method is an election method that elects the candidate who wins a majority of the vote in every head-to-head election against each of the other candidates, whenever there is such a candidate. A candidate with this property, the pairwise champion or beats-all winner, is formally called the Condorcet winner. The head-to-head elections need not be done separately; a voter's choice within any given pair can be determined from the ranking.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Monotonicity criterion</span> Property of electoral systems

The monotonicity criterion, also called positive response or positive vote weight, is a principle of social choice theory that says that increasing a candidate's ranking or rating should not cause them to lose. Positive response rules out cases where a candidate loses an election as a result of receiving too much support from voters.

Ranked pairs, sometimes called the Tideman method, is a tournament-style system of ranked-choice voting first proposed by Nicolaus Tideman in 1987.

In an election, a candidate is called a Condorcet, beats-all, or majority-rule winner if a majority of voters would support them in a race against any other candidate. Such a candidate is also called an undefeated or tournament champion. Voting systems where a majority-rule winner will always win the election are said to satisfy the majority-rule principle, also known as the Condorcet criterion. Condorcet voting methods extend majority rule to elections with more than one candidate.

The participation criterion, also called vote or population monotonicity, is a voting system criterion that says that a candidate should never lose an election because they have "too much support." It says that adding voters who support A over B should not cause A to lose the election to B.

The majority criterion is a voting system criterion. The criterion states that "if only one candidate is ranked first by a majority of voters, then that candidate must win."

The mutual majority criterion is a criterion for evaluating electoral system. It requires that whenever a majority of voters prefer a group of candidates above all others, someone from that group must win.

The Borda count electoral system can be combined with an instant-runoff procedure to create hybrid election methods that are called Nanson method and Baldwin method. Both methods are designed to satisfy the Condorcet criterion, and allow for incomplete ballots and equal rankings.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bullet voting</span> Vote supporting only a single candidate

Bullet, single-shot, or plump voting is when a voter supports only a single candidate, typically to show strong support for a single favorite.

Later-no-harm is a property of some ranked-choice voting systems, first described by Douglas Woodall. In later-no-harm systems, modifying the rating or rank of a candidate ranked below the winner of an election cannot change the result.

In voting systems theory, the independence of clones criterion measures an election method's robustness to strategic nomination. Nicolaus Tideman was the first to formulate this criterion, which states that the winner must not change due to the addition of a non-winning candidate who is similar to a candidate already present. It is a relative criterion: it states how changing an election should or shouldn't affect the outcome.

Instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as plurality with elimination or plurality loser, is a ranked-choice voting system that modifies plurality by repeatedly eliminating the last-place winner until only one candidate is left. In the United Kingdom, it is generally called the alternative vote (AV). In the United States, IRV is often conflated with ranked-choice voting (RCV); however, this conflation is not completely standard, and social choice theorists tend to prefer more explicit terms.

In game theory and political science, Poisson-game models of voting are used to model the strategic behavior of voters with imperfect information about each others' behavior. Poisson games are most often used to model strategic voting in large electorates with secret and simultaneous voting.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">STAR voting</span> Single-winner electoral system

STAR voting is an electoral system for single-seat elections. The name stands for "Score then Automatic Runoff", referring to the fact that this system is a combination of score voting, to pick two finalists with the highest total scores, followed by an "automatic runoff" in which the finalist who is preferred on more ballots wins. It is a type of cardinal voting electoral system.

Tideman's Alternative Method, also called Alternative Smith or Alternative Schwartz, is an electoral system developed by Nicolaus Tideman which selects a single winner using votes that express preferences.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Center for Election Science</span> American nonprofit organization

The Center for Election Science (CES) is an American 501(c)(3) organization that focuses on voter education and promoting election science. The organization promotes electoral systems favored by social choice theorists, primarily cardinal voting methods such as approval and score voting. They have their early roots in effective altruism.

References

  1. 1 2 Alex Small, “Geometric construction of voting methods that protect voters’ first choices,” arXiv:1008.4331 (August 22, 2010), http://arxiv.org/abs/1008.4331.
  2. Merrill, Samuel; Nagel, Jack (1987-06-01). "The Effect of Approval Balloting on Strategic Voting under Alternative Decision Rules". American Political Science Review. 81 (2): 509–524. doi:10.2307/1961964. ISSN   0003-0554.
  3. Baujard, Antoinette; Gavrel, Frédéric; Igersheim, Herrade; Laslier, Jean-François; Lebon, Isabelle (September 2017). "How voters use grade scales in evaluative voting" (PDF). European Journal of Political Economy. 55: 14–28. doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.09.006. ISSN   0176-2680. A key feature of evaluative voting is a form of independence: the voter can evaluate all the candidates in turn ... another feature of evaluative voting ... is that voters can express some degree of preference.
  4. 1 2 Wolk, Sara; Quinn, Jameson; Ogren, Marcus (2023-03-20). "STAR Voting, equality of voice, and voter satisfaction: considerations for voting method reform". Constitutional Political Economy (Journal Article). 34 (3): 310–334. doi:10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 . Retrieved 2023-07-16.
  5. Eberhard, Kristin (2017-05-09). "Glossary of Methods for Electing Executive Officers". Sightline Institute. Retrieved 2023-12-31.
  6. Woodall, Douglas (1997-06-27). "Monotonicity of single-seat preferential election rules". Discrete Applied Mathematics. 77 (1): 81–98. doi:10.1016/S0166-218X(96)00100-X . Retrieved 2024-05-02.
  7. Fishburn, Peter; Brams, Steven (1983-09-01). "Paradoxes of Preferential Voting". Mathematics Magazine. 56 (4): 207–214. doi:10.1080/0025570X.1983.11977044. JSTOR   2689808 . Retrieved 2024-05-02.
  8. Volić, Ismar (2024-04-02). "Duverger's law". Making Democracy Count. Princeton University Press. Ch. 2. doi:10.2307/jj.7492228. ISBN   978-0-691-24882-0.
  9. Hamlin, Aaron (2015-05-30). "Top 5 Ways Plurality Voting Fails". Election Science. The Center for Election Science. Retrieved 2023-07-17.
  10. Hamlin, Aaron (2019-02-07). "The Limits of Ranked-Choice Voting". Election Science. The Center for Election Science. Retrieved 2023-07-17.
  11. "Voting Method Gameability". Equal Vote. The Equal Vote Coalition. Retrieved 2023-07-17.
  12. Ossipoff, Michael (2013-05-20). "Schulze: Questioning a Popular Ranked Voting System". Democracy Chronicles. Retrieved 2024-01-01.
  13. Hamlin, Aaron; Hua, Whitney (2022-12-19). "The case for approval voting". Constitutional Political Economy. 34 (3): 335–345. doi: 10.1007/s10602-022-09381-x . Retrieved 2024-05-02.
  14. Sullivan, Brendan (2022). An Introduction to the Math of Voting Methods. 619 Wreath. ISBN   9781958469033.