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Alaska's at-large congressional district | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 32.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. [2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House. [3]
The election was the first held after Alaska Measure 2 established a new procedure for elections. Under the new system, the winners of a top-four primary advanced to an instant-runoff election. However, Al Gross's withdrawal left only three names on the ballot in the general election.
The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted. [4] [5] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31. [6]
The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset because Alaska voters have historically favored Republicans. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008. [7] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13. [8]
The results of the new voting system were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a lobbyist group in favor of instant runoff voting, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system. [9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing more moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation. [10]
By contrast, the election generated criticism from social choice and election scientists over several perceived flaws, which they technically term pathologies. [11] [12] The election produced a winner who received a plurality rather than majority of votes, as a majority of ballots had ranked Begich above Peltola, [13] [14] [15] and more than half (in total) voted in the first round for the two Republican candidates. [13] [15] They cited Begich's elimination as an example of a center squeeze, a scenario in which the candidate closest to the center of public opinion is eliminated due to a lack of first choice votes. [11] [14] [15] Palin played the role of spoiler by knocking Begich out of contention in the first round. [16] The election was also notable as a negative vote weight event, as Ballots thant ranked Palin first and Begich second instead helped Peltola to win. [17] [18]
But election scientists were careful to note that such flaws (which in technical terms they call pathologies) likely would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well. Several suggested alternative systems that could replace either of these alternatives.
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||
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P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||||||
Begich | Coghill | Constant | Gross | Lowenfels | Palin | Revak | Peltola | Sweeney | |||||
1 [51] | May 12, 2022 | Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development Council | N/A | Youtube | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Nick Begich (R) | Santa Claus (I) | John Coghill (R) | Christopher Constant (D) | Al Gross (I) | Andrew Halcro (I) | Jeff Lowenfels (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Josh Revak (R) | Tara Sweeney (R) | Adam Wool (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 16% |
Remington Research Group (R) | April 7–9, 2022 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | – | – | 7% | 26% | – | – | 31% | – | 3% | 2% | – | 4% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sarah Palin | 43,601 | 27.01 | |
Republican | Nick Begich | 30,861 | 19.12 | |
Independent | Al Gross [lower-alpha 2] | 20,392 | 12.63 | |
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 16,265 | 10.08 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney | 9,560 | 5.92 | |
Independent | Santa Claus | 7,625 | 4.72 | |
Democratic | Christopher Constant | 6,224 | 3.86 | |
Independent | Jeff Lowenfels | 5,994 | 3.71 | |
Republican | John Coghill | 3,842 | 2.38 | |
Republican | Josh Revak | 3,785 | 2.34 | |
Independent | Andrew Halcro | 3,013 | 1.87 | |
Democratic | Adam Wool | 2,730 | 1.69 | |
Democratic | Emil Notti | 1,777 | 1.10 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,049 | 0.65 | |
Democratic | Mike Milligan | 608 | 0.38 | |
Independence | John Howe | 380 | 0.24 | |
Independent | Laurel Foster | 338 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Stephen Wright | 332 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 286 | 0.18 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 285 | 0.18 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 284 | 0.18 | |
Democratic | Ernest Thomas | 199 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 197 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Otto Florschutz | 193 | 0.12 | |
Republican | Maxwell Sumner | 133 | 0.08 | |
Republican | Clayton Trotter | 121 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Anne McCabe | 118 | 0.07 | |
Republican | John Callahan | 114 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Arlene Carle | 107 | 0.07 | |
Independent | Tim Beck | 96 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 92 | 0.06 | |
Republican | Tom Gibbons | 94 | 0.06 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 87 | 0.05 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 83 | 0.05 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 70 | 0.04 | |
Independent | Karyn Griffin | 67 | 0.04 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 54 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Don Knight | 46 | 0.03 | |
Republican | Jo Woodward | 44 | 0.03 | |
Independent | Jason Williams | 37 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Robert Brown | 36 | 0.02 | |
Independent | Dennis Aguayo | 31 | 0.02 | |
Independent | William Hibler III | 25 | 0.02 | |
Republican | Bradley Welter | 24 | 0.01 | |
Independent | David Thistle | 23 | 0.01 | |
Independent | Brian Beal | 19 | 0.01 | |
Republican | Mikel Melander | 17 | 0.01 | |
Total votes | 161,428 | 100.0 |
Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision. [36]
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [53] | Likely R | August 10, 2022 |
Inside Elections [54] | Likely R | August 4, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] | Safe R | June 22, 2022 |
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Tribes
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | RCV count | Nick Begich (R) | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Mary Peltola (D) | Undecided |
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Alaska Survey Research | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,219 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 30% | – | 29% | 41% | – |
2 | 55% | – | 45% | ||||||
2* [lower-alpha 3] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Alaska Survey Research | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 31% | – | 29% | 40% | – |
2 | 57% | – | 43% | ||||||
2* [lower-alpha 3] | – | 49% | 51% | ||||||
Gross withdraws from the race | |||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | 27% | 26% | 19% | – |
2 | 33% | 40% | 28% | – | |||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | RCV count | Nick Begich (R) | Santa Claus (I) | Christopher Constant (D) | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Tara Sweeney (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | 21% | – | 26% | 25% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 53% | 47% | – | ||||||||
3* [lower-alpha 4] | – | 53% | – | 47% | |||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 29% | – | 17% | 27% | 28% | – | – |
2 | 32% | – | 40% | 28% | |||||||
3 | 54% | 46% | – | ||||||||
Alaska Survey Research | May 6–9, 2022 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 28% | – | 35% | 26% | 11% | – | |
2 | 32% | 39% | 29% | – | |||||||
3 | 55% | 45% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | RCV count | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Lora Reinbold (R) | Josh Revak (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | BA | 33% | 30% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
2 | 33% | 30% | – | 11% | 26% | ||||
3 | 35% | 35% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Al Gross (I) | Sarah Palin (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Al Gross (I) | Josh Revak (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | March 25–29, 2022 | 728 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 34% | 31% |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||||
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Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 74,817 | 39.66% | +982 | 75,799 | 40.19% | +15,467 | 91,266 | 51.5% | ||
Republican | Sarah Palin | 58,339 | 30.92% | +634 | 58,973 | 31.27% | +27,053 | 86,026 | 49.5% | ||
Republican | Nick Begich | 52,536 | 27.84% | +1,274 | 53,810 | 28.53% | -53,810 | Eliminated | |||
Write-in | 2,974 | 1.58% | -2,974 | Eliminated | |||||||
Total votes | 188,666 | 188,582 | 177,292 | ||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 3,707 | +11,290 | 14,997 | ||||||||
Democratic gain from Republican |
First round results by state house district | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Final round results by state house district | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Mark Peter Begich is an American politician who served as a United States senator from Alaska from 2009 to 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as mayor of Anchorage from 2003 to 2009.
Sarah Louise Palin is an American politician, commentator, author, and reality television personality who served as the ninth governor of Alaska from 2006 until her resignation in 2009. She was the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee alongside U.S. Senator John McCain.
The Alaska Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in Alaska, headquartered in Anchorage.
The 2008 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator and former President pro tempore Ted Stevens ran for re-election for an eighth term in the United States Senate. It was one of the ten Senate races that U.S. Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted as being most competitive. The primaries were held on August 26, 2008. Stevens was challenged by Democratic candidate Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage and son of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich.
Mary Sattler Peltola is an American politician and former tribal judge serving as the U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district since September 2022. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as a judge on the Orutsararmiut Native Council's tribal court, executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, Bethel city councilor, and member of the Alaska House of Representatives.
The 2008 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the nationwide presidential election held throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose 3 electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States senator from Alaska since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Sullivan previously served as the commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources from 2010 to 2013, and as the Alaska Attorney General from 2009 to 2010.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the election of the governor of Alaska, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 1972 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 7, 1972, to elect the United States representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district. Incumbent Democratic Representative Nick Begich went missing shortly before the general election, but still defeated Republican nominee Don Young.
The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018, and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the Governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.
The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.
The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.
A top-four primary or top-four ranked-choice voting is an election method using a nonpartisan blanket primary as the first step.
The 2022 Alaska state elections took place on November 8, 2022. The state also held Regional Educational Attendance Area (REAA) elections on the first Tuesday in October.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska from its at-large congressional district. The election will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House, elections to the United States Senate, and various other state and local elections.
The 2024 Anchorage mayoral election was held on April 2, 2024, with a runoff election on May 14 because no candidate received more than 45% of the vote in the first round. It elected the mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. Incumbent Republican mayor Dave Bronson ran for re-election to a second term in office.
The 2024 Alaska Republican presidential primary was held on March 5, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 29 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional basis. The contest was held on Super Tuesday alongside primaries in 14 other states.
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: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
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: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)