2022 United States Senate election in Missouri

Last updated

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri
Flag of Missouri.svg
←  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  →
  Sen. Eric Schmitt, official portrait, 118th Congress (cropped).jpg Trudy Busch Valentine (1).jpg
Nominee Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch Valentine
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,146,966872,694
Percentage55.43%42.18%
2022 United States Senate election in Missouri results map by county.svg
2022 US Senate Election in Missouri by Congressional District.svg
Schmitt:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Busch Valentine:     50–60%     60–70%     70-80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Roy Blunt
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Eric Schmitt
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent senator Roy Blunt, a Republican, did not seek a third term in office. Republican Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the open seat, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.

Contents

Republican primary

In March 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection in 2022. [1]

Republican candidates for Blunt's Senate seat included former Gov. Eric Greitens, [2] U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, [3] U.S. Rep. Billy Long, [4] and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt. [5]

Schmitt's candidacy was backed by Missouri mega-donor Rex Sinquefield. [6] In the speech announcing his candidacy, Schmitt tied himself to Donald Trump and spoke against "the radical left". [6] He pledged to vote against Mitch McConnell for the Senate Republican party leadership position. [7]

In February 2022, Hartzler's campaign released a 30-second ad criticizing Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer on the University of Pennsylvania women's team. In the ad, Hartzler said, "Women's sports are for women, not men pretending to be women", adding that, as Missouri's senator, she would not "look away while woke liberals destroy women's sports." [8]

U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley endorsed Hartzler in February 2022. [9] On July 8, 2022, Donald Trump refused to endorse Hartzler, saying, "I don't think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats." [10] [9]

Greitens was endorsed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Fox News personality Kimberly Guilfoyle, the latter joining his campaign as a national chair. [11]

Many Republican officials, strategists, and donors maneuvered to stymie Greitens's attempted comeback, believing that the scandal surrounding his resignation as governor, his extramarital affair, and the sexual assault accusation against him would make him a weak general election candidate and lead to the loss of the Senate seat to a Democrat. [12] [13] Notable Republican opponents of Greitens's candidacy included Karl Rove, [12] Johnny DeStefano, [13] and Senator Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. [14] After Greitens's ex-wife filed an affidavit against him in March 2022 accusing him of physical abuse, Senator Josh Hawley (who had endorsed Vicky Hartzler the previous month [15] ) called upon Greitens to drop out. [16]

Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein funded a pro-Greitens super PAC ("Team PAC"), contributing $2.5 million to it. [12] Other Republican megadonors, including Rex Sinquefield and August Busch, aligned against Greitens. [13] A Republican-funded anti-Greitens super PAC ("Show Me Values PAC") was created in June 2022 [17] and ran $6.2 million in ads through late July 2022. [18]

Republican officials, including Rick Scott, waged a campaign to persuade Donald Trump not to endorse Greitens. [14] On the eve of the primary election, Trump issued a statement endorsing "ERIC" in the primary, leaving it unclear which "Eric" he was endorsing. [14] [19]

In the primary election, Schmitt prevailed with 45.7% of the vote; Hartzler received 22.1%, Greitens 18.9%, and Long 5%. [20]

U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and finished second. Vicky Hartzler official portrait 117th Congress (alt crop).jpg
U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and finished second.
Former governor Eric Greitens attempted to restart his political career, but finished third. Eric Greitens 2018 (cropped).jpg
Former governor Eric Greitens attempted to restart his political career, but finished third.
U.S. Representative Billy Long failed to gain traction and finished a distant fourth. Billy Long 115th official photo (cropped).jpg
U.S. Representative Billy Long failed to gain traction and finished a distant fourth.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Missed filing deadline

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

The day before the primary, former president Donald Trump released a statement endorsing "ERIC". There were three candidates with the first name Eric running in the Republican primary: Eric Greitens, Eric McElroy, and Eric Schmitt. Trump's statement did not offer any clarification on whether this was an endorsement for one or multiple candidates, and when reached for comment by NBC News, Trump's office declined to clarify the endorsement. [52] [53]

Eric Greitens
Federal officials
Individuals
Organizations
Vicky Hartzler
Federal officials
Individuals
Organizations
Eric Schmitt
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Debates

DateHostModeratorLink(s)Participants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Mark
McCloskey		Dave
Schatz		Eric
Schmitt
May 31, 2022Greene County Republicans [80] Ginger Gooch
Darrell Moore		AAPPPA

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Mark
McCloskey		Dave
Schatz		Eric
Schmitt		Other
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics July 21 – 24, 2022July 26, 202219.0%24.5%7.0%5.0%2.5%33.0%9.0%Schmitt +8.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Mark
McCloskey		Dave
Schatz		Eric
Schmitt		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 31 – August 1, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%21%18%5%5%3%34%–15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] July 27–28, 2022818 (LV)± 3.4%18%22%6%5%5%34%2%8%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] July 27, 2022891 (LV)± 3.3%17%16%–––28%––
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 2022787 (LV)± 4.2%20%13%8%4%3%28%4%21%
Emerson College July 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%16%21%5%4%2%33%1% [lower-alpha 3] 17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] July 23–24, 2022802 (LV)± 3.4%18%25%8%4%3%32%–10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 22–24, 20221,059 (LV)± 2.9%20%24%7%5%2%27%–16%
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] July 5–7, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%16%24%6%4%4%28%–18%
The Trafalgar Group (R) June 28–30, 20221,072 (LV)± 2.9%24%24%6%3%4%23%–17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] June 22–23, 2022911 (LV)± 3.1%20%19%8%5%2%25%–21%
Emerson College June 2–5, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%26%16%8%4%0%20%1% [lower-alpha 4] 27%
The Trafalgar Group (R) May 16–18, 20221,065 (LV)± 2.9%26%23%9%3%3%19%–17%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 2022642 (LV)± 5.0%26%11%7%2%2%17%7% [lower-alpha 5] 28%
Remington Research (R) [upper-alpha 4] May 11–12, 2022945 (LV)± 3.0%21%23%–––29%10%17%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 5] May 2–4, 2022806 (LV)± 3.5%26%19%7%5%2%14%–27%
NMB Research (R) [upper-alpha 6] April 6–7, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%23%20%7%3%2%25%20%–
OnMessage Inc. (R) [upper-alpha 7] April 4–6, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%22%23%11%5%2%16%–21%
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 24–29, 20221,079 (LV)± 3.0%24%25%8%2%3%22%–16%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] March 22–23, 2022941 (LV)± 3.1%21%19%9%5%3%24%–19%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 22–24, 20221,026 (LV)± 3.0%31%17%6%5%2%23%3%15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] February 16–17, 2022917 (LV)± 3.1%25%18%8%5%2%22%–20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] January 26–27, 2022902 (LV)± 3.1%28%19%7%5%1%23%–17%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [upper-alpha 7] January 2022– (LV)–30%16%9%6%1%16%–23%
CMA Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 8] January 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%27%12%6%4%1%15%–36%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] December 1–2, 2021744 (LV)± 3.4%27%16%7%4%3%24%–19%
NMB Research (R) [upper-alpha 6] December 2021– (LV)–34%––––17%49%–
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] October 20–21, 2021806 (LV)± 3.2%27%19%8%4%–25%–17%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 3–5, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%36%10%6%4%–17%1% [lower-alpha 6] 25%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] September 8–9, 2021847 (LV)± 3.2%27%17%8%5%–28%–15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] August 4–5, 2021911 (LV)± 3.0%27%13%12%9%–24%–15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] June 9–10, 20211,011 (LV)± 3.0%34%14%–7%–25%–20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] March 24–25, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%36%–14%––30%–20%
40%––––39%–21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Roy
Blunt		John
Brunner		Eric
Greitens		Vicky
Hartzler		Billy
Long		Eric
Schmitt		Jason
Smith		Ann
Wagner		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] March 24–25, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%–2%31%8%6%18%9%12%14%
–10%38%––30%––22%
––36%––29%16%–19%
––38%––26%–18%18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 5] March 23–25, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%––48%––11%7%9%26%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] December 2–3, 2020840 (LV)± 3.4%43%–32%–––––25%

Results

Results by county: Schmitt 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Hartzler 30-40% 40-50% Greitens 40-50% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Missouri results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Schmitt
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hartzler
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Greitens
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Eric Schmitt 299,282 45.6
Republican Vicky Hartzler 144,90322.1
Republican Eric Greitens 124,15518.9
Republican Billy Long 32,6035.0
Republican Mark McCloskey 19,5403.0
Republican Dave Schatz 7,5091.1
Republican Patrick A. Lewis6,0850.9
Republican Curtis D. Vaughn3,4510.5
Republican Eric McElroy2,8050.4
Republican Robert Allen2,1110.3
Republican C. W. Gardner2,0440.3
Republican Dave Sims1,9490.3
Republican Bernie Mowinski1,6020.2
Republican Deshon Porter1,5740.2
Republican Darrell Leon McClanahan III1,1390.2
Republican Rickey Joiner1,0840.2
Republican Robert Olson1,0810.2
Republican Dennis Lee Chilton7550.1
Republican Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr.6850.1
Republican Kevin C. Schepers6810.1
Republican Hartford Tunnell6370.1
Total votes655,675 100.0

Democratic primary

AELP national security director Lucas Kunce led in fundraising, but finished second. Lucas Kunce for MO.jpg
AELP national security director Lucas Kunce led in fundraising, but finished second.
College professor Gena Ross, a previous nominee for U.S. House, finished fifth. Gena Ross Instagram Video (cropped).jpg
College professor Gena Ross, a previous nominee for U.S. House, finished fifth.

As the Democratic primary season progressed, three main contenders emerged: Lucas Kunce, director of national security at the American Economic Liberties Project; Spencer Toder, a businessman; and Trudy Busch Valentine, heiress of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company. [81] Kunce and Toder both campaigned as anti-establishment populists, whereas Valentine campaigned in a staid manner with few public appearances. [81]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Trudy Busch Valentine, retired nurse, businesswoman, activist, and daughter of beer magnate August Busch Jr. [82]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Lucas Kunce
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
  • Rasheen Aldridge Jr., state representative for Missouri's 78th district (2019–2023) [100]
  • Michael Johnson, state representative for Missouri's 23rd district (2021–present) [100]
  • Wes Shoemyer, state senator for Missouri's 18th district (2007–2011) and state representative for Missouri's 9th district (2001–2007) [101]
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers and publications
Trudy Busch Valentine
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
  • Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri's 76th district (2021–present) [100]
  • Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri's 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2015–2018) [100]
  • Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri's 14th district (2021–present) [100]
  • Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri's 82nd district (2017–present) [100]
  • Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri's 92nd district (2017–2021) [100]
  • Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri's 81st district (2019–present) [100]
  • Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri's 35th district (2019–present) [100]
  • Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri's 99th district (2023–present) and 87th district (2019–2023) [100]
  • Tracy McCreery, state senator for Missouri's 24th district and state representative for Missouri's 88th district (2015–2023) and 83rd district (2012–2013) [100]
  • Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2019–present) [100]
  • Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri's 24th district (2015–2023) and nominee for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in 2020 [100]
  • Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri's 96th district (2011–2013) [82]
Local officials

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Lucas
Kunce		Spencer
Toder		Trudy Busch
Valentine		Carla "Coffee"
Wright		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 2022547 (LV)± 5.6%14%3%40%6%9% [lower-alpha 7] 28%
Emerson College July 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%35%3%39%1%1% [lower-alpha 8] 22%
Triton Polling & Research (D) [upper-alpha 9] May 2022~544 (LV)± 4.2%19%24%26%––31%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 2022500 (LV)± 5.0%10%3%8%3%12% [lower-alpha 9] 63%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 10] April 13–14, 2022546 (LV)± 4.2%25%–18%––56%

Results

Results by county: Busch Valentine <40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Kunce/Toder tie <40% Kunce <40% 40-50% 50-60% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Missouri results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Busch Valentine
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kunce/Toder tie
  •   <40%
  Kunce
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine 158,957 43.2
Democratic Lucas Kunce 141,20338.3
Democratic Spencer Toder17,4654.7
Democratic Carla Coffee Wright14,4383.9
Democratic Gena Ross8,7492.4
Democratic Jewel Kelly6,4641.8
Democratic Lewis Rolen5,2471.4
Democratic Pat Kelly5,0021.4
Democratic Ronald (Ron) William Harris4,0741.1
Democratic Josh Shipp3,3340.9
Democratic Clarence (Clay) Taylor3,3220.9
Total votes368,255 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Jonathan Dine, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016 [24]

Results

Libertarian primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,973 100.0
Total votes2,973 100.0

Constitution primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Constitution primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Constitution Paul Venable 792 100.0
Total votes792 100.0

Independents

Candidates

John Wood, a former Bush administration official and a January 6 Committee investigator, announced that he would run for the seat as an independent on June 29, but he withdrew from the race after former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens lost the Republican primary to Schmitt. [110] [111]

Withdrew

Missed ballot deadline

  • Rick Seabaugh, sales manager [114]
  • Nicholas Strauss, network engineer [30]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
538 [115] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
The Cook Political Report [116] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
DDHQ [117] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
The Economist [118] Safe RNovember 7, 2022
Fox News [119] Solid RNovember 1, 2022
Inside Elections [120] Solid RNovember 3, 2022
Politico [121] Likely RAugust 12, 2022
RCP [122] Likely RNovember 5, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [123] Safe RNovember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Missouri debates
No.DateHostModerator Republican Democratic Libertarian Constitution
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch ValentineJonathan DinePaul Venable
1September 16, 2022Missouri Press Association [124] David LiebA [lower-alpha 10] PPP

Endorsements

Eric Schmitt (R)
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Newspapers
  • The Missouri Times [130]
Individuals
Organizations
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
  • Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri's 76th district (2021–present) [100]
  • Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri's 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2015–2018) [100]
  • Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri's 14th district (2021–present) [100]
  • Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri's 82nd district (2017–present) [100]
  • Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri's 92nd district (2017–2021) [100]
  • Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri's 81st district (2019–present) [100]
  • Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri's 35th district (2019–present) [100]
  • Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri's 87th district (2019–present) [100]
  • Tracy McCreery, state representative for Missouri's 88th district (2015–present) and 83rd district (2012–2013) [100]
  • Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2019–present) [100]
  • Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri's 24th district (2015–present) and nominee for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in 2020 [100]
  • Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri's 96th district (2011–2013) [82]
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
John Wood (I) (withdrawn)
Federal officials

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		Undecided
[lower-alpha 11] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics October 24 – November 1, 2022November 1, 202252.0%41.3%6.7%Schmitt +10.7
FiveThirtyEight May 15 – November 4, 2022November 4, 202253.1%41.9%5.0%Schmitt +11.2
270towin October 29 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202252.0%40.8%7.2%Schmitt +11.2
Average52.4%41.3%6.3%Schmitt +11.0
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
Civiqs November 4–7, 2022746 (LV)± 4.7%55%40%–4% [lower-alpha 12] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 20221,079 (LV)± 2.9%53%42%–2% [lower-alpha 13] 2%
SurveyUSA October 27 – November 1, 2022791 (LV)± 4.1%50%41%–3% [lower-alpha 14] 6%
Emerson College October 26–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%–5% [lower-alpha 15] –
51%39%–4% [lower-alpha 16] 6%
Remington Research (R) [upper-alpha 1] October 24–25, 20221,011 (LV)± 3.0%51%42%–3% [lower-alpha 17] 4%
Emerson College September 23–27, 20221,160 (VLV)± 2.8%49%38%–3%10%
SurveyUSA September 14–18, 2022670 (LV)± 4.4%47%36%–4%14%
Remington Research (R) [upper-alpha 1] August 24–25, 20221,011 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%–2% [lower-alpha 18] 7%
August 23, 2022Wood withdraws from the race [111]
YouGov/SLU August 8–16, 2022900 (LV)± 3.8%49%38%–5%8%
44%31%10%3%13%
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%9%6%18%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%47%34%––19%
Remington Research (R) [upper-alpha 1] April 27–28, 2022986 (LV)± 3.0%50%32%––18%
Hypothetical polling
Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%31%26%13%10%21%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%42%36%––22%
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%46%45%––9%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%34%26%––40%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 3–4, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%47%40%––13%
Eric Greitens vs. Trudy Busch Valentine
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%31%31%10%8%20%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%43%37%––20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] April 27–28, 2022986 (LV)± 3.0%46%37%––17%
Vicky Hartzler vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%34%25%12%9%20%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%45%31%––24%
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%56%39%––5%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%23%16%––61%
Vicky Hartzler vs. Trudy Busch Valentine
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%32%31%9%7%21%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%44%33%––23%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] April 27–28, 2022986 (LV)± 3.0%49%33%––18%
Billy Long vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Billy
Long (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%16%17%67%
Eric Schmitt vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		John
Wood (I)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA July 24–27, 20221,591 (LV)± 3.0%37%27%10%6%20%
SurveyUSA May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%46%34%––19%
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%55%40%––5%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%28%23%––49%
Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce vs. generic independent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Lucas
Kunce (D)		Generic
Independent		Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM) [upper-alpha 11] February 2–6, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%27%25%26%22%
Eric Greitens vs. Jay Nixon
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] July 14–15, 2021922 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Eric Greitens vs. Scott Sifton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%45%45%10%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%39%26%35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 3–4, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%46%40%14%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%49%42%9%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] February 17–18, 2021954 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%10%
Eric Greitens vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Greitens (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 12] November 16–18, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%49%36%15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 3–4, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%47%41%12%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%52%35%13%
Vicky Hartzler vs. Scott Sifton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%57%37%6%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%22%17%61%
Billy Long vs. Scott Sifton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Billy
Long (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%13%12%75%
Eric Schmitt vs. Jay Nixon
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Jay
Nixon (D)		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%50%42%8%
Eric Schmitt vs. Scott Sifton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%6%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 2] December 16–17, 20211,210 (LV)± 4.2%23%18%60%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] April 7–8, 2021936 (LV)± 3.0%51%39%10%
Roy Blunt vs. Jason Kander
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Roy
Blunt (R)		Jason
Kander (D)		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [upper-alpha 13] January 10–12, 2021571 (LV)± 4.1%45%44%12%
Roy Blunt vs. Scott Sifton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Roy
Blunt (R)		Scott
Sifton (D)		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] February 17–18, 2021954 (LV)± 3.0%50%40%10%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout [upper-alpha 1] January 6–7, 2021980 (LV)± 3.0%52%34%14%

Results

State Senate districts results US Senate election in Missouri by State Senate districts.png
State Senate districts results
State House districts results US Senate by Missouri State House 2022 districts.png
State House districts results

Schmitt prevailed over Valentine on Election Day. [143]

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri [144]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Eric Schmitt 1,146,966 55.43% +6.25%
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine872,69442.18%−4.21%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine34,8211.68%−0.74%
Constitution Paul Venable14,6080.71%−0.20%
Write-in 410.00%−0.03%
Total votes2,069,130 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Schmitt won 6 of 8 congressional districts. [145]

DistrictSchmittBusch ValentineRepresentative
1st 20%79% Cori Bush
2nd 51%48% Ann Wagner
3rd 59%38% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66%31% Vicky Hartzler (117th Congress)
Mark Alford (118th Congress)
5th 35%62% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 65%32% Sam Graves
7th 68%29% Billy Long (117th Congress)
Eric Burlison (118th Congress)
8th 73%24% Jason Smith

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Gardner and Tunnell with 1%; Allen, Breyfogle, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, and Sims with 0%
  4. ↑ McElroy, Joiner, and Vaughn with 0%
  5. ↑ Allen, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, McElroy, Schepers, and Sims with 1%; Breyfogle, Chilton, Gardner, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, Tunnell, and Vaughn with 0%
  6. ↑ Deets with 1%; Brinkmann and Porter with 0%
  7. ↑ Jewel Kelly, Ross, and all other candidates combined with 3%
  8. ↑ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Rolen, Ross, Shipp, and Taylor with 0%
  9. ↑ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Ross, and Taylor with 2%; Rolen and Shipp with 1%
  10. ↑ Schmitt was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
  11. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  13. ↑ Dine (L) with 2%
  14. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%
  15. ↑ Dine (L) with 3%; Venable (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  16. ↑ Dine (L) with 2%; Venable (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  17. ↑ Dine with 2% and Venable with 1%
  18. ↑ Dine and Venable with 1%
  19. 1 2 Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Non-partisan poll conducted for the local non-partisan tipsheet Missouri Scout
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll conducted for Missouri First Action, which supports Greitens
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Show Me Values PAC, which opposes Greitens
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for an undisclosed private client
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll conducted for Eric Greitens's campaign
  6. 1 2 Poll conducted for Protect Missouri Values PAC, which supports Schmitt
  7. 1 2 Poll conducted for Vicky Hartzler's campaign
  8. ↑ Poll conducted for the Missouri Chamber Political Institute
  9. ↑ This poll was conducted for Toder's campaign.
  10. ↑ This poll was conducted for Kunce's campaign.
  11. ↑ Poll conducted for the Serve America Movement
  12. ↑ Poll conducted for Team PAC, which supports Greitens
  13. ↑ Poll conducted for MoveOn

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  126. ↑ "Outgoing Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt endorses Eric Schmitt to replace him". August 18, 2022.
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  132. ↑ "Farm Bureau endorses Schmitt for Senate". August 30, 2022. Retrieved August 31, 2022.
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  136. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Trudy Busch Valentine for U.S. Senate". September 8, 2022.
  137. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". nea.org.
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  139. ↑ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
  140. ↑ "The Star editorial board's recommendations for Missouri and Kansas midterm elections" . The Kansas City Star . October 31, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  141. ↑ "Jack Danforth backing independent campaign for US Senate". KSDK . June 30, 2022.
  142. ↑ "Jan. 6 committee counsel leaving to explore run for U.S. Senate in Missouri". The Washington Post. June 22, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
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  144. ↑ "General Election November 8, 2022" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State.
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