Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the environment and people. [1] In addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather in parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has impacted some of the important rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries affected by extreme weather caused by climate change. [2] Pakistan is prone to a range of natural disasters, including cyclones, floods, drought, intense rainfall, and earthquakes. According to scientific research, climate change played a substantial role in the devastating floods of 2022, which had a direct impact on over 30 million people in Pakistan, resulting in the loss of lives, damage to public infrastructure, and displacement from homes. [3] Climate change poses a significant menace to Pakistan's economy and security. [4]
Pakistan's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are less than 1% of the world total, and GHG emissions per person, at 2 tonnes per year, [5] are less than half the global average. [6] In 2015 GHG emissions totalled 408 million tonnes of CO2eq; of which 43% was from agriculture in Pakistan; and 46% from energy in Pakistan, such as burning fuel for heat, to power transport, and generate electricity. [7]
Agricultural GHG are mostly methane and nitrous oxide. [7] Methane comes from belching cattle, sheep and goats; manure management; and rice cultivation. [7] Nitrous oxide is mainly from agricultural soils due to the application of synthetic fertilizers, farmyard manure, and crop residue mixes after burning. [7]
Energy GHG is mostly carbon dioxide: in 2019 burning fossil gas, coal and oil each emitted around 80 million tonnes. [8] It has been suggested [ by whom? ] that stricter measures against air pollution in Pakistan might include actions that would also limit GHG emissions, such as increasing tax on motor fuels. [9] In 2020 Prime Minister Imran Khan said that no more coal-fired power stations in Pakistan would be given permits. [10] However coal-fired power stations which have already been given permits are expected to be constructed. [11]
As of 2021, Pakistan has not declared a net-zero year goal, however, it has committed to cut 50% of projected emissions by 2030. [12] In 2022 Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that more solar, wind and hydropower should be built to reduce the fossil fuel import bill. [13]
An economic crisis has significantly impaired the economic rights of individuals, depriving them of necessary resources and opportunities. Moreover, the effects of climate change have intensified heatwaves, leading to catastrophic floods that was reported that it claims the lives of more than 1,100 and 33 million were affected. Nearly 750,000 people were left without access to safe and adequate housing, education or health infrastructure. [14] A prevailing sentiment of injustice permeates the nation as Pakistan, despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, finds itself disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its geographical circumstances. [15]
While the effects of climate change are highly region-specific, it can be said [ according to whom? ] that mean surface temperatures are rising and extreme weather events will increase over time. These changes will disrupt expected environmental processes and human activity. The factors thought to affect climate change can exhibit variability too. Chaotic and periodic variations have been observed over different regions of the Earth and varying spans of time. [16]
In May 2022, a severe heatwave was recorded in Pakistan and India. The temperature reached 51°C. Climate change makes such heatwaves 100 times more likely. Without climate change heatwaves, more severe that those who occurred in 2010 are expected to arrive 1 time in 312 years. Now they are expected to occur every 3 years. [17]
The climate change projections of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report for South Asia as a whole suggest that heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent; and that both annual and summer monsoon rainfall will increase, with more variation by year. [18] Consequently, this will significantly impact the productivity and efficiency of water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and energy. [19]
General future projections for Pakistan's climate are: [19]
Extreme weather, such as cyclones or intense monsoons are likely to increase in Pakistan because of increased sea and atmospheric temperature. [20] Government projections, highlight considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts. [19] [21] For example, between 1998 and 2018 Pakistan reported more than 150 extreme weather events. [22]
In 2022 catastrophic floods hit the country. The main causes were increased precipitation and glaciers melting fueled by climate change. One third of the country was under water. According to Climate minister Sherry Rehman this "has exceeded every boundary, every norm we've seen in the past". [23] 33 million people were affected. [24]
Sea level rise along the Karachi coast is estimated at 1.1 mm per year (mm/year) for the period 1856–2000 according to the National Institute of Oceanography, Pakistan. [25] According to IPCC estimates, the mean rate of global average sea level rise was 1.7 mm/year between 1901 and 2010, and 3.2 mm/year between 1993 and 2010. [26] This change in sea level is thought to be due to two major processes, the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of glacier mass. [19]
It is difficult to predict SLR for the entire region of Pakistan since data is limited at the country level. While IPCC estimates predict a global mean SLR of 0.2–0.6 m by 2100, a rise of 0.7 m is predicted for the region of South Asia (which includes the Pakistan coast). This SLR will most likely affect low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and Indus River delta more than other regions of Pakistan. [19]
The impact of SLR on coastal areas and its resources may already be evident in the inundation of low-lying areas, degradation of mangrove forests, declining drinking water quality, and decrease in fish and shrimp productivity in those regions. [27] The vulnerability of the Sindh coastal zone is considered higher than the Balochistan coastal areas because of the former's flat tidal topography and higher population concentration with industrial activity along coastal areas (such as Karachi). This rise in sea level is also expected to increase the rate of soil erosion along the coastal belt. An 80% reduction in the amount of river sediment as compared to the early 20th century is reported and attributed to the extensive damming of the Indus River. The delta undergoes a natural subsidence process that ranges from a "sinking" of less than 1 mm/year to more than 10 mm/year. This rate is exceeded due to groundwater and petroleum extraction. Thus, the erosion, subsidence and lack of sedimentation are resulting in the shrinking and sinking of the Indus River delta. [19]
According to an NGO head, 3 million acres of land containing many villages have been submerged in the coastal areas of the districts Thatta, Badin and Sajawal over the past 40 years. This loss of has resulted in the migration of over 1 million people from these districts to urban centers like Karachi. They further claimed that the construction of dams and diversion of river water have worsened the situation. [28]
Water availability per capita is projected to decrease. [19]
Glacial retreat in parts of the Himalayas poses risks of meltwater flooding. [29] In 2020, melting of a glacier in Shispare led to evacuations of the village of Hassanabad, Hunza. [30] A 2014 remote sensing study suggested the situation of glaciers in Pakistan varies between regions of the country. [31] The devastating 2022 floods were in part driven by glaciers melting. [29]
The poverty rate of Pakistan, when estimated at $2 per day purchasing power parity, exceeds 50% of the total population with stark provincial disparities. This high prevalence of poverty, coupled with the lack of and access to resources, places the country in the low human development category, ranked 146 out of 187 countries, well below the average human development index value compared to other South Asian countries. [19] [32]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for the Asia region noted that the sensitivity of agriculture-dependent economies (such as Pakistan) toward climate change arises from their distinct geography, demographic trends, socioeconomic factors, and lack of adaptive capacity that when taken together, determine the climate change vulnerability profile of the country. [19] [33] Pakistan is frequently plagued by heatwaves, droughts, river and flash floods, landslides, and storms, including cyclones. The impact of climate change has the potential to initiate extensive and potent negative feedback loops that affect both livelihoods and public health. Consequently, this contributes to Pakistan's ongoing struggle with poverty. [34] [35] Paired with the surging inflation and the ongoing political turbulence in the country, this situation has the potential to create a catastrophic scenario. These concurrent trends serve as possible factors that may drive climate-induced migration from rural regions to urban hubs as people in Pakistan search for employment and more stable living conditions. [36]
Future projections for Pakistan are that major crop yields such as of wheat and rice are expected to decrease significantly. [19]
According to research led by Dr. Adil Najam at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, by 2040 the cost of climate change to agriculture in Pakistan is likely to be up to 7% of productivity but that good climate adaptation practices could result in a net productivity gain of up to 40%.[ citation needed ]
The 2022 Pakistan floods mainly caused by increased precipitation and glaciers melting fueled by climate change, destroyed around 50% of the crops of Pakistan which can lead to food shortages. [23]
Due to extreme weather and uncertain economic outcomes, rural communities in Pakistan have been displaced in large numbers to major cities. Experts expect 20% of the population to move to major cities; current migration patterns included 700,000 people a year moving from rural to urban environments. Larger estimates, including major displacements because of extreme weather, suggest as many as 20 million migrants from rural to urban communities since 2010. [37]
The most important targets for mitigation efforts focused on reduction of GHG emissions are the energy and agriculture sectors. In the energy sector, integration of climate change and energy policy objectives is particularly important as today's investment such as in the Thar coalfield will "lock in" the infrastructure, fuel and technologies to be used for decades to come. Similarly, the building and transport infrastructure put in place today should meet the design needs of the future. Therefore, energy efficiency requirements in building codes and long-term transport planning will prove important. [38]
The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of 2012, framed by the Government of Pakistan as the guiding policy document for the country on climate change, acknowledges the growing risk of future extreme natural hazards due to climate change. It further provides a picture of the vulnerabilities faced by individual sectors, ecological regions and socioeconomic classes. [19] The major climate change threats identified in the report include:
Various programs focused on adaptation and mitigation have been developed within the Pakistani government. Since 2017, a cabinet-level ministry has led much of that capacity.
Pakistan has less than 6% total forest area. This, combined with climate change, exacerbates challenges such as flooding, heat waves, and soil loss. [40] Starting in 2014, the government started pursuing a Billion Tree Tsunami policy, and in 2018 that policy was extended to a 10 billion tree, Plant for Pakistan program. [22] During the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan, government agencies continued their reforestation program, creating 60,000 jobs among the unemployed. [40]
According to the BBC Climate Asia report, [41] the majority of the Pakistani people surveyed claimed that climate change has heavily impacted their lives in the form of floods and droughts, and most importantly has affected the availability of resources such as energy and water. 53% of Pakistanis felt that their lives had become worse off than they were five years ago. Although the effects of climate change are evident, the survey found that the majority of the people were unaware of the meaning of climate change, and "ascribed changes in climate and extreme weather events to the will of God." [41]
Climate change affects the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. Changes in the climate system include an overall warming trend, more extreme weather and rising sea levels. These in turn impact nature and wildlife, as well as human settlements and societies. The effects of human-caused climate change are broad and far-reaching. This is especially so if there is no significant climate action. Experts sometimes describe the projected and observed negative impacts of climate change as the climate crisis.
Climate change in South Asia is having significant impacts already which are expected to intensify as global temperatures rise due to climate change. The South Asia region consists of the eight countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. In the 2017 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh and Pakistan ranked sixth and seventh respectively as the countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015, while India ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015. The Indian subcontinent is one of the most vulnerable regions globally to a number of direct and indirect effects of climate change, including sea level rise, cyclonic activity, and changes in ambient temperature and precipitation patterns. Ongoing sea level rise has already submerged several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans region, displacing thousands of people.
Climate change has serious effects on Russia's climate, including average temperatures and precipitation, as well as permafrost melting, more frequent wildfires, flooding and heatwaves. Changes may affect inland flash floods, more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion reduced snow cover and glacier melting, and may ultimately lead to species losses and changes in ecosystem functioning.
Climate change and poverty are deeply intertwined because climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low-income communities and developing countries around the world. The impoverished have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change due to the increased exposure and vulnerability. Vulnerability represents the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes.
Climate change has resulted in an increase in temperature of 2.3 °C (2022) in Europe compared to pre-industrial levels. Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world. Europe's climate is getting warmer due to anthropogenic activity. According to international climate experts, global temperature rise should not exceed 2 °C to prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change; without reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this could happen before 2050. Climate change has implications for all regions of Europe, with the extent and nature of impacts varying across the continent.
Climate change is a critical issue in Bangladesh as the country is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it ranked seventh in the list of countries most affected by climate calamities during the period 1999–2018. Bangladesh's vulnerability to the effects of climate change is due to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed topography, and socio-economic factors, including its high population density, levels of poverty, and dependence on agriculture. The impacts and potential threats include sea level rise, temperature rise, food crises, droughts, floods, and cyclones.
There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought, heat waves and flooding. These effects of climate change can also increase the currently-rare risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures, which would have significant consequences for the global food supply. Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of the same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases.
The effects of climate change on small island countries are impacting people who live in coastal areas through sea level rise, increasing heavy rain events, tropical cyclones and storm surges. The effects of climate change threaten the existence of many island countries, island peoples and their cultures, and will alter their ecosystems and natural environments. Despite their heterogeneity, small island developing states (SIDS) are recognized as being particularly at risk to climate change. They share numerous common traits and have been quite vocal in calling attention to the challenges they face from climate change.
In France, climate change has caused some the greatest annual temperature increases registered in any country in Europe. The 2019 heat wave saw record temperatures of 46.0 °C. Heat waves and other extreme weather events are expected to increase with continued climate change. Other expected environmental impacts include increased floods due to both sea level rise and increased glacier melt. These environmental changes will lead to shifts in ecosystems and affect local organisms. Climate change will also cause economic losses in France, particularly in the agriculture and fisheries sectors.
Climate change is having serious impacts in the Philippines such as increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, sea level rise, extreme rainfall, resource shortages, and environmental degradation. All of these impacts together have greatly affected the Philippines' agriculture, water, infrastructure, human health, and coastal ecosystems and they are projected to continue having devastating damages to the economy and society of the Philippines.
Cambodia is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Extreme weather events will occur more frequently; this includes floods, which already affect 90,000 residents annually, and heatwaves, with Cambodia already having one of the highest temperatures of the world. The temperature has increased since the 1960s by 0.18 °C per decade. It had the 7th lowest CO2 emissions in Asia in 2019.
Climate change is having a considerable impact in Malaysia. Increasing temperatures are likely to greatly increase the number of heatwaves occurring annually. Variations in precipitation may increase the frequency of droughts and floods in various local areas. Sea level rise may inundate some coastal areas. These impacts are expected to have numerous environmental and socioeconomic effects, exacerbating existing environmental issues and reinforcing inequality.
Vietnam is among the most affected countries by global climate change. A large number of studies show that Vietnam is experiencing climate change and will be severely negatively affected in coming decades. These negative effects include sea level rise, salinity intrusion and other hydrological problems like floods, river mouth evolution and sedimentation. Natural hazards such as cold waves, storm surges will increase in frequency, with negative effects on the country's development, infrastructure and economy.
In Italy, widespread impacts of climate change are currently being felt. With an increase in extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts and more frequent flooding, Italy faces many challenges adapting to climate change.
Iran is among the most vulnerable to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Iran contributes to about 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and is ranked 8th in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) world wide and is ranked first in the MENA region due to its reliance on oil and natural gas. Climate change has led to reduced precipitation as well as increased temperatures, with Iran holding the hottest temperature recorded in Asia.
Climate change is evident in Kyrgyzstan. Among the countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is the third most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as changes in weather patterns that could lead to prolonged periods of precipitation and drought. Moreover, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events such as heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfalls, and biotic/abiotic catastrophes during recent years are evidence of climate change. Kyrgyzstan is threatened with glacier melting and a lack of freshwater balance, which are accelerated by global warming. The average temperature has increased from 4.8 °C to 6 °C so far within the last 20 years. In 2013 the World Bank estimated a likely increase of 2 °C in average mean temperature by 2060 and of 4–5 °C by 2100, noting that the country's glaciers were significantly reduced and projected to decline further. However the very slight increase in temperature is expected to positively affect climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, energy, and forestry as more land is within the optimum temperature band.
India is ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015. India emits about 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases each year; about two and a half tons per person, which is less than the world average. The country emits 7% of global emissions, despite having 17% of the world population. Temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat, threatening the flow rate of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna and other major rivers. A 2007 World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) report states that the Indus River may run dry for the same reason. Heat waves' frequency and intensity are increasing in India because of climate change. Severe landslides and floods are projected to become increasingly common in such states as Assam. The climate change performance index of India ranks eighth among 63 countries which account for 92% of all GHG emissions in the year 2021.
Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) refers to changes in the climate of the MENA region and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of countries in the region. In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) despite making up only 6% of the global population. These emissions are mostly from the energy sector, an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region. The region of Middle East is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves and sea level rise.
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. Three Working Groups covered the following topics: The Physical Science Basis (WGI); Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII); Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII). Of these, the first study was published in 2021, the second report February 2022, and the third in April 2022. The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023.
Israel, like many other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, experience adverse effects from climate change. Annual and mean temperatures are increasing in Israel, with mean temperature expected to increase between 1.6 and 1.8 °C by 2100. There is a reduction in annual precipitation and delayed winter rains. Israel is already experiencing droughts and water shortages. Heatwaves are other natural hazards expected to increase with climate change.