Energy crisis

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An energy crisis or energy shortage is any significant bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In literature, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, in particular, those that supply national electricity grids or those used as fuel in industrial development. Population growth has led to a surge in the global demand for energy in recent years. In the 2000s, this new demand – together with Middle East tension, the falling value of the US dollar, dwindling oil reserves, concerns over peak oil, and oil price speculation – triggered the 2000s energy crisis, which saw the price of oil reach an all-time high of $147.30 per barrel ($926/m3) in 2008.[ citation needed ]

Contents

Most energy crises have been caused by localized shortages, wars and market manipulation. However, the recent historical energy crises listed below were not caused by such factors.

Causes

The gasoline shortages of World War II brought about the resurgence of horse-and-wagon delivery. Door paard getrokken taxi.jpg
The gasoline shortages of World War II brought about the resurgence of horse-and-wagon delivery.

Most energy crises have been caused by localized shortages, wars and market manipulation. Some have argued that government actions like tax hikes, nationalisation of energy companies, and regulation of the energy sector shift supply and demand of energy away from its economic equilibrium. [1] However, the recent historical energy crises listed below were not caused by such factors. Market failure is possible when monopoly manipulation of markets occurs. A crisis can develop due to industrial actions like union organized strikes or government embargoes. The cause may be over-consumption, aging infrastructure, choke point disruption, or bottlenecks at oil refineries or port facilities that restrict fuel supply. An emergency may emerge during very cold winters due to increased consumption of energy.

Large fluctuations and manipulations in future derivatives can impact price. Investment banks trade 80% of oil derivatives as of May 2012, compared to 30% a decade ago. [2] This consolidation of trade contributed to an improvement of global energy output from 117,687 TWh in 2000 to 143,851 TWh in 2008. [3] Limitations on free trade for derivatives could reverse this trend of growth in energy production. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Hani Hussein stated that "Under the supply and demand theory, oil prices today are not justified," in an interview with Upstream. [4]

Pipeline failures and other accidents may cause minor interruptions to energy supplies. A crisis could possibly emerge after infrastructure damage from severe weather. Attacks by terrorists or militia on important infrastructure are a possible problem for energy consumers, with a successful strike on a Middle East facility potentially causing global shortages. Political events, for example, when governments change due to regime change, monarchy collapse, military occupation, and coup may disrupt oil and gas production and create shortages. Fuel shortage can also be due to the excess and useless use of the fuels.

Historical crises

20th century

2000s

Kuwait's Al Burqan Oil Field, the world's second-largest oil field Kuwait city 1996.jpg
Kuwait's Al Burqan Oil Field, the world's second-largest oil field

2010s

2020s

Natural gas prices in Europe and United States
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National Balancing Point NBP (UK) natural gas prices
Europe TTF natural gas prices
United States Henry Hub natural gas prices Natural gas prices Europe and US.webp
Natural gas prices in Europe and United States
   National Balancing Point NBP (UK) natural gas prices
  Europe TTF natural gas prices
  United States Henry Hub natural gas prices

Emerging oil shortage

"Peak oil" is the period when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. It relates to a long-term decline in the available supply of petroleum. This, combined with increasing demand, significantly increases the worldwide prices of petroleum-derived products. Most significant is the availability and price of liquid fuel for transportation.

The US Department of Energy in the Hirsch report indicates that "The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past 'energy crisis' experience will provide relatively little guidance." [20]

Mitigation efforts

To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the 2005 Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives, at least ten to twenty years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time. Such mitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of unconventional oil. Because mitigation can reduce the use of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the Hubbert curve.

Energy policy may be reformed leading to greater energy intensity, for example in Iran with the 2007 Gas Rationing Plan in Iran, Canada and the National Energy Program and in the US with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 also called the Clean Energy Act of 2007 . Another mitigation measure is the setup of a cache of secure fuel reserves like the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in case of national emergency. Chinese energy policy includes specific targets within their 5-year plans.

Andrew McKillop has been a proponent of a contract and converge model or capping scheme, to mitigate both emissions of greenhouse gases and a peak oil crisis. The imposition of a carbon tax would have mitigating effects on an oil crisis.[ citation needed ] The Oil Depletion Protocol has been developed by Richard Heinberg to implement a powerdown during a peak oil crisis. While many sustainable development and energy policy organisations have advocated reforms to energy development from the 1970s, some cater to a specific crisis in energy supply including Energy-Quest and the International Association for Energy Economics. The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas examine the timing and likely effects of peak oil.

Ecologist William Rees believes that

To avoid a serious energy crisis in coming decades, citizens in the industrial countries should actually be urging their governments to come to an international agreement on a persistent, orderly, predictable, and steepening series of oil and natural gas price hikes over the next two decades.

Due to a lack of political viability on the issue, government-mandated fuel prices hikes are unlikely and the unresolved dilemma of fossil fuel dependence is becoming a wicked problem. A global soft energy path seems improbable, due to the rebound effect. Conclusions that the world is heading towards an unprecedented large and potentially devastating global energy crisis due to a decline in the availability of cheap oil lead to calls for a decreasing dependency on fossil fuel.

Other ideas concentrate on design and development of improved, energy-efficient urban infrastructure in developing nations. [21] Government funding for alternative energy is more likely to increase during an energy crisis, so too are incentives for oil exploration. For example, funding for research into inertial confinement fusion technology increased during the 1970s.

Kirk Sorensen and others [22] have suggested that additional nuclear power plants, particularly liquid fluoride thorium reactors have the energy density to mitigate global warming and replace the energy from peak oil, peak coal and peak gas. The reactors produce electricity and heat so much of the transportation infrastructure should move over to electric vehicles. However, the high process heat of the molten salt reactors could be used to make liquid fuels from any carbon source.

Social and economic effects

The macroeconomic implications of a supply shock-induced energy crisis are large, because energy is the resource used to exploit all other resources. Oil price shocks can affect the rest of the economy through delayed business investment, [23] sectoral shifts in the labor market, [24] or monetary policy responses. [25] When energy markets fail, an energy shortage develops. Electricity consumers may experience intentionally engineered rolling blackouts during periods of insufficient supply or unexpected power outages, regardless of the cause.

Industrialized nations are dependent on oil, and efforts to restrict the supply of oil would have an adverse effect on the economies of oil producers. For the consumer, the price of natural gas, gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises. An early response from stakeholders is the call for reports, investigations and commissions into the price of fuels. There are also movements towards the development of more sustainable urban infrastructure.

In 2006, survey respondents in the United States were willing to pay more for a plug-in hybrid car. New Vehicle Purchase Preference.svg
In 2006, survey respondents in the United States were willing to pay more for a plug-in hybrid car.
Global new investments in renewable energy, 2004-2010 Global-RE-Investment-VC-Eng.png
Global new investments in renewable energy, 2004–2010

In the market, new technology and energy efficiency measures become desirable for consumers seeking to decrease transport costs. [27] Examples include:

Other responses include the development of unconventional oil sources such as synthetic fuel from places like the Athabasca Oil Sands, more renewable energy commercialization and use of alternative propulsion. There may be a relocation trend towards local foods and possibly microgeneration, solar thermal collectors and other green energy sources.

Tourism trends and gas-guzzler ownership varies with fuel costs. Energy shortages can influence public opinion on subjects from nuclear power plants to electric blankets. Building construction techniques—improved insulation, reflective roofs, thermally efficient windows, etc.—change to reduce heating costs.

The percentage of businesses indicating that energy prices represent a barrier to investment has increased in 2022 (82%) as found in recent surveys, particularly for those who see it as a significant obstacle (59%). According to varied energy prices and energy intensity across nations and industries, various countries have different percentages of businesses that view energy costs as a key obstacle, ranging from 24% in Finland to 81% in Greece for example. [28]

Crisis management

An electricity shortage is felt most acutely in heating, cooking, and water supply. Therefore, a sustained energy crisis may become a humanitarian crisis. If an energy shortage is prolonged a crisis management phase is enforced by authorities. Energy audits may be conducted to monitor usage. Various curfews with the intention of increasing energy conservation may be initiated to reduce consumption. For example, to conserve power during the Central Asia energy crisis, authorities in Tajikistan ordered bars and cafes to operate by candlelight. "Crisis Looms as Bitter Cold, Blackouts Hit Tajikistan". NPR . Retrieved 10 February 2008.

In the worst kind of energy crisis energy rationing and fuel rationing may be incurred. Panic buying may beset outlets as awareness of shortages spread. Facilities close down to save on heating oil; and factories cut production and lay off workers. The risk of stagflation increases.[ citation needed ]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1979 oil crisis</span> Worldwide increase in crude oil prices following the Iranian Revolution

A drop in oil production in the wake of the Iranian Revolution led to an energy crisis in 1979. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four percent, the oil markets' reaction raised the price of crude oil drastically over the next 12 months, more than doubling it to $39.50 per barrel ($248/m3). The sudden increase in price was connected with fuel shortages and long lines at gas stations similar to the 1973 oil crisis.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hubbert peak theory</span> One of the primary theories on peak oil

The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Peak oil</span> Point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached

Peak oil is the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production will occur, after which oil production will begin an irreversible decline. The primary concern of peak oil is that global transportation heavily relies upon the use of gasoline and diesel fuel. Switching transportation to electric vehicles, biofuels, or more fuel-efficient forms of travel may help reduce oil demand.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Colin Campbell (geologist)</span> British petroleum geologist (1931–2022)

Colin J. Campbell was a British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would peak by 2007. He claimed the consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependency on fossil fuels for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. To deal with declining global oil production, he proposed the Rimini protocol.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2000s energy crisis</span> Sixfold rise in oil prices, peaking in 2008

From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under US$25/barrel in 2008 dollars. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including Middle East tension, soaring demand from China, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports showing a decline in petroleum reserves, worries over peak oil, and financial speculation.

Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area. The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that the production curves of non-renewing resources approximate a bell curve. Thus, according to this theory, when the peak of production is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline.

The Argentine energy crisis was a natural gas supply shortage experienced by Argentina in 2004. After the recession triggered by the Argentine economic crisis (1999-2002), Argentina's energy demands grew quickly as industry recovered, but extraction and transportation of natural gas, a cheap and relatively abundant fossil fuel, did not match the surge.

Energía Argentina Sociedad Anónima, mostly known for its acronym ENARSA, is a state owned company in Argentina. It is engaged in the exploitation of petroleum and natural gas, and the production, industrialization, transport and trade of these and of electricity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Energy industry</span> Industries involved in the production and sale of energy

The energy industry is the totality of all of the industries involved in the production and sale of energy, including fuel extraction, manufacturing, refining and distribution. Modern society consumes large amounts of fuel, and the energy industry is a crucial part of the infrastructure and maintenance of society in almost all countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Price of oil</span> Spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil

The price of oil, or the oil price, generally refers to the spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil—a reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC Reference Basket, Tapis crude, Bonny Light, Urals oil, Isthmus, and Western Canadian Select (WCS). Oil prices are determined by global supply and demand, rather than any country's domestic production level.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Energy security</span> National security considerations of energy availability

Energy security is the association between national security and the availability of natural resources for energy consumption. Access to cheaper energy has become essential to the functioning of modern economies. However, the uneven distribution of energy supplies among countries has led to significant vulnerabilities. International energy relations have contributed to the globalization of the world leading to energy security and energy vulnerability at the same time.

Peak gas is the point in time when the maximum global natural gas production rate will be reached, after which the rate of production will enter its terminal decline. Although demand is peaking in the United States and Europe, it continues to rise globally due to consumers in Asia, especially China. Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. Natural gas derived from fossil fuels is a non-renewable energy source; however, methane can be renewable in other forms such as biogas. Peak coal was in 2013, and peak oil is forecast to occur before peak gas. One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fossil fuel phase-out</span> Gradual reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels

Fossil fuel phase-out is the gradual reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels to zero, to reduce deaths and illness from air pollution, limit climate change, and strengthen energy independence. It is part of the ongoing renewable energy transition, but is being hindered by fossil fuel subsidies.

Hydrocarbon economy is a term referencing the global hydrocarbon industry and its relationship to world markets. Energy used mostly comes from three hydrocarbons: petroleum, coal, and natural gas. Hydrocarbon economy is often used when talking about possible alternatives like the hydrogen economy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Petroleum in the United States</span>

Petroleum has been a major industry in the United States since the 1859 Pennsylvania oil rush around Titusville, Pennsylvania. Commonly characterized as "Big Oil", the industry includes exploration, production, refining, transportation, and marketing of oil and natural gas products. The leading crude oil-producing areas in the United States in 2023 were Texas, followed by the offshore federal zone of the Gulf of Mexico, North Dakota and New Mexico.

Electricity in Pakistan is generated, transmitted and distributed by two vertically integrated public sector companies, first one being Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) responsible for the production of hydroelectricity and its supply to the consumers by electricity distribution companies (DISCOS) under the Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) being the other integrated company. Currently, there are 12 distribution companies and a National Transmission And Dispatch Company (NTDC) which are all in the public sector except Karachi Electric in the city of Karachi and its surrounding areas. There are around 42 independent power producers (IPPs) that contribute significantly in electricity generation in Pakistan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russia in the European energy sector</span>

Russia supplies a significant volume of fossil fuels to other European countries. In 2021, it was the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union, (90%) and 40% of gas consumed in the EU came from Russia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1970s energy crisis</span> Subclass of energy crisis

The 1970s energy crisis occurred when the Western world, particularly the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, faced substantial petroleum shortages as well as elevated prices. The two worst crises of this period were the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis, when, respectively, the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution triggered interruptions in Middle Eastern oil exports.

A global energy crisis began in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, with much of the globe facing shortages and increased prices in oil, gas and electricity markets. The crisis was caused by a variety of economic factors, including the rapid post-pandemic economic rebound that outpaced energy supply, and escalated into a widespread global energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The price of natural gas reached record highs, and as a result, so did electricity in some markets. Oil prices hit their highest level since 2008.

The 2021–2022 global energy crisis has caused varying effects in different parts of the world.

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Further reading