2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

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2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
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  Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg Kim Gillan 2012 (3x4).jpg
Nominee Steve Daines Kim Gillan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote255,468204,939
Percentage53.3%42.7%
Montana's at-large congressional district election, 2012 results by county.svg
County results
Daines:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gillan:     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Denny Rehberg
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Steve Daines
Republican

Montana's at-large congressional district MT-Atlarge.gif
Montana's at-large congressional district

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run for the seat in the U.S. Senate. [1] A primary election was held on June 5, 2012. [2] Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Hypothetical polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Abarr		Steve
Daines		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011382± 5.0%14%22%—64%

Results

Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Daines 82,843 71.2
Republican Eric Brosten21,01218.1
Republican Vincent Melkus12,42010.7
Total votes116,275 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kim
Gillan		Sam
Rankin		Diane
Smith		Dave
Strohmaier		Rob
Stutz		Jason
Ward		Franke
Wilmer		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%21%4%13%9%1%0%11%41%

Results

Democratic primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kim Gillan 25,077 31.0
Democratic Franke Wilmer14,83618.4
Democratic Diane Smith12,61815.6
Democratic Dave Strohmaier11,36614.1
Democratic Sam Rankin9,38211.6
Democratic Jason Ward4,9596.1
Democratic Rob Stutz2,5863.2
Total votes80,824 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Endorsements

Steve Daines (R)
Organizations
Kim Gillan (D)
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Daines (R)		Kim
Gillan (D)		David
Kaiser (L)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) November 2–3, 2012737± 3.6%48%44%3%4%
Mason-Dixon October 29–31, 2012625± 4.0%51%40%1%8%
Pharos Research Group October 26–28, 2012799± 4.9%52%45%–4%
Pharos Research Group October 19–21, 2012400± 4.9%47%41%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 8–10, 2012737± 3.6%43%34%10%12%
MSU-Billings September 27–30, 2012477± 4.6%36%23%3%38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC) September 23–26, 2012600± 4.0%36%34%5%25%
Mason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012625± 4.0%46%38%2%14%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 10–11, 2012656± 3.8%40%37%9%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%33%27%—40%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%35%27%—38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Abarr (R)		Kim
Gillan (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%26%—44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Abarr (R)		Franke
Wilmer (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%33%25%—42%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Daines (R)		Franke
Wilmer (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%36%25%—39%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%35%25%—40%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [22] Likely RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg [23] Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Roll Call [24] Likely RNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [25] Likely RNovember 5, 2012
NY Times [26] Safe RNovember 4, 2012
RCP [27] Likely RNovember 4, 2012
The Hill [28] Likely RNovember 4, 2012

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2012 [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Steve Daines 255,468 53.25% -7.16%
Democratic Kim Gillan 204,93942.72%+8.88%
Libertarian David Kaiser19,3334.03%-1.71%
Total votes479,740 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Dennis Ray Rehberg is an American politician and member of the Republican Party. He served as the lieutenant governor of Montana from 1991 to 1997 and as the U.S. representative for Montana's at-large congressional district from 2001 to 2013. Rehberg was the Republican nominee for the United States Senate in 1996 and 2012, losing to Democratic incumbents Max Baucus 50% to 45% and Jon Tester 49% to 45%, respectively. He subsequently became a co-chairman at Mercury, a Washington D.C. lobbying firm.

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References

  1. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette . Retrieved February 5, 2011.
  2. ↑ "Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State Linda McCulloch. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 10, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  3. ↑ Slate, Judy (February 3, 2011). "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race". KXLF.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  4. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (February 2, 2012). "Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate". Billings Gazette . Retrieved February 7, 2012.
  5. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (March 6, 2012). "Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat". Missoulian . Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  6. ↑ Cates, Kristen. "More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious". USA TODAY. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support". The Washington Post . October 5, 2011. Retrieved October 15, 2011.[ dead link ]
  8. 1 2 State of Montana. Official Canvas Retrieved December 20, 2022
  9. ↑ Banks, Marnee (June 21, 2011). "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House". KAJ18.com. Archived from the original on March 21, 2012. Retrieved June 21, 2011.
  10. ↑ "Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo". Independent Record . March 9, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
  11. ↑ Dennison, Mike (November 3, 2011). "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race". Billings Gazette . Retrieved November 11, 2011.
  12. ↑ Weller, Allyson (June 18, 2011). "Strohmaier announces run for Congress". KPAX. Archived from the original on June 23, 2011. Retrieved June 20, 2011.
  13. ↑ Banks, Marnee (August 10, 2011). "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House". KRTV. Archived from the original on September 29, 2011. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  14. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (January 20, 2012). "Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat". Missoulian . Retrieved January 25, 2012.
  15. ↑ Banks, Marnee (February 1, 2011). "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid". KRTV.com. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved June 1, 2011.
  16. ↑ "Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014". Independent Record . March 14, 2012. Retrieved March 15, 2012.
  17. ↑ Drucker, David M. (June 9, 2011). "Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?". Roll Call . Retrieved June 10, 2011.
  18. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (July 28, 2011). "Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress". Billings Gazette . Retrieved August 2, 2011.
  19. ↑ Dennison, Mike (March 13, 2012). "Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season". Independent Record . Retrieved March 15, 2012.
  20. ↑ "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2013. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  21. ↑ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  22. ↑ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
  23. ↑ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  24. ↑ , as of November 4,2012[update]
  25. ↑ Crystal Ball, as of November 5,2012
  26. ↑ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4,2012
  27. ↑ , as of November 4,2012[update]
  28. ↑ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  29. ↑ "2012 General Canvass" (PDF). Retrieved February 23, 2019.
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