2024 United States presidential election in Montana

Last updated June 13, 2024

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.^[1]

Though somewhat less conservative than its neighboring Great Plains states, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton did so in 1992 nor has it been competitive at this level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. Montana is favored to be carried by the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Republican primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Green primary

The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
No Preference	495	100.00%	4
Total:	495	100.00%	4
Source: ^[3]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report ^[4]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections ^[5]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball ^[6]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill ^[7]	Safe R	May 30, 2023
CNalysis ^[8]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN ^[9]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist ^[10]	Solid R	June 12, 2024
538 ^[11]	Likely R	June 11, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	February 26 – March 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	56%	35%	9%
SurveyUSA ^{[upper-alpha 2]}	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	51%	29%	20%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	447 (RV)	± 4.6%	49%	28%	23%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,451 (RV)	–	54%	37%	9%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	–	51%	39%	10%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	320 (LV)	± 6.6%	49%	36%	15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	February 26 – March 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	28%	8%	1%	1%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,451 (RV)	–	51%	30%	7%	12%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Joe Manchin Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,451 (RV)	–	49%	28%	6%	4%	13%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	–	50%	36%	14%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	320 (LV)	± 6.6%	42%	35%	23%

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

1 2 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
↑ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

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References

↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
↑ "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024" . Retrieved June 5, 2024.
↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

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[key-12] 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[NexstarMT-13] 1 2 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group

[KULRTV-14] Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[3] "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024" . Retrieved June 5, 2024.

[4] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[5] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[6] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[10] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[11] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

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