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| Elections in Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024. [1]
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections. [2] [3] [4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points. [5] [6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates. [7]
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $13,030,712 | $6,794,892 | $8,755,481 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [23] | |||
Hung Cao, considered by some to be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, has been embroiled in multiple controversies. Following the partial collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge after being struck by a container ship, Cao blamed Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg for the accident, claiming that Buttigieg "spends more time talking about racial equity with regard to highways and about climate change than about focusing on the fundamentals of keeping our country and our infrastructure working." [24] Later, Cao claimed that Monterey, California is "a very dark place now, a lot of witchcraft, and the Wiccan community has really taken over there," adding that "we can't let that happen in Virginia." [25]
In February 2023, Cao announced the formation of a PAC called Unleash America, with the PAC's goal being "to get Republicans elected" in the House of Delegates elections and State Senate elections in 2023. However, in April 2024, the Staunton-based publication The News Leader published an article claiming that none of the $103,489 raised by the PAC was spent on state house or state senate elections, but were instead spent on Cao's Senate bid. [26] Cao would respond by denouncing the article as a "hit job" by a "podunk local newspaper" that he claimed was run by "left-wing hacks." [27] In a virtual town hall hosted by the Fauquier County Republican Committee, Cao would also say that it would be "ridonkulous" and "crazy" for him to “drive six and a half hours down to Abingdon or something like that and to stand there with four other dudes and to have 30 seconds to answer questions." His comments have drawn backlash and accusations of being dismissive to rural portions of the commonwealth. [28]
Despite these controversies, Cao was endorsed by former president Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. [29]
| Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Hung Cao (R) | $2,036,423 | $1,557,642 | $571,261 |
| Jonathan Emord (R) | $808,722 [lower-alpha 1] | $776,557 | $32,165 |
| Eddie Garcia (R) | $298,802 | $281,916 | $16,885 |
| Scott Parkinson (R) | $841,133 | $469,182 | $371,950 |
| Chuck Smith (R) | $509,949 | $485,433 | $24,516 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [23] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hung Cao | |||
| Republican | Jonathan Emord | |||
| Republican | Eddie Garcia | |||
| Republican | Scott Parkinson | |||
| Republican | Chuck Smith | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [44] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily [45] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
| Inside Elections [46] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [48] | Likely D | June 8, 2024 |
| CNalysis [49] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Hung Cao (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Glenn Youngkin (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3% [lower-alpha 3] | 7% |
| University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10% [lower-alpha 4] | 10% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | TBD | ||||
| Total votes | 100.00% | ||||
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