2024 United States presidential election in Missouri

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Missouri

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the entirety of the 20th century going into the 2000s (only backing the losing candidate once beginning in 1904 until 2004, with its lone miss in 1956 being by 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in both of his election bids. As a state located almost entirely in the conservative Bible Belt, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and thus is today a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. The state is once again predicted to be securely won by the Republican candidate in 2024. ^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3]

Primary elections

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses

The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.

Missouri Republican caucus, March 2, 2024

Candidate	State delegates	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	924	100.00	54	0	54
Nikki Haley	0	0.00	0	0	0
David Stuckenberg	0	0.00	0	0	0
Total:	924	100	54	0	54
Source: [4] [5]

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Missouri Democratic presidential primary

The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.

Missouri Democratic primary, March 22, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	16,295	85.3%	61
Uncommitted	2,229	11.7%	3
Marianne Williamson	298	1.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	178	0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	40	0.2%
Jason Palmer	36	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	24	0.1%
Total:	19,100	100.0%	64	6	70
Source: [6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist [13]	Solid R	June 12, 2024
538 [14]	Likely R	June 11, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	January 23–28, 2024	1,830 (RV)	± 2.2%	49%	32%	19%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout	October 10–11, 2023	806 (RV)	± 3.6%	52%	39%	9%
SurveyUSA	October 27 – November 1, 2022	991 (RV)	± 3.7%	52%	34%	14%
Emerson College	October 26–28, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	53%	37%	9%
Emerson College	September 23–27, 2022	1,160 (LV)	± 2.8%	51%	37%	12%
SurveyUSA	September 14–18, 2022	830 (RV)	± 3.9%	52%	35%	13%
SurveyUSA	July 24–27, 2022	1,981 (RV)	± 2.7%	51%	35%	14%
SurveyUSA	May 11–15, 2022	1,412 (LV)	± 3.2%	50%	35%	15%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout	September 18–20, 2021	1,014 (LV)	± 2.9%	55%	36%	9%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout	April 21–22, 2021	933 (LV)	± 3.0%	53%	38%	9%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Missouri
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri's GOP caucuses". ABC News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.^{[ failed verification ]}
5. "Missouri primary results". Associated Press . Retrieved March 2, 2024.
6. "Missouri Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
13. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
14. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.