2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

Last updated June 13, 2024

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maryland voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Mainly owing to the progressive Baltimore and Washington, DC areas (where the vast majority of Marylanders live), Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double digits since 1992, with Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware doing so by 33 points in 2020 and with 52% of the White vote becoming the first Dem presidential candidate since LBJ in 1964 to have a majority showing with said electoral demographic.^[2] Maryland is expected to be a safe blue state in 2024.^[3]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Maryland Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024,^[5] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Republican primary

The Maryland Republican primary is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024,^[5] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report ^[6]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections ^[7]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball ^[8]	Solid D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill ^[9]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis ^[10]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN ^[11]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist ^[12]	Solid D	June 12, 2024
538 ^[13]	Solid D	June 11, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	56%	35%	9%
Public Policy Polling ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	May 6–7, 2024	719 (RV)	± 3.7%	60%	32%	8%
Emerson College	February 12–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	55%	32%	13%
Gonzales Research	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	53%	32%	15%
Gonzales Research	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	30%	13%
Gonzales Research	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	52%	35%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	May 6–8, 2024	1,115 (RV)	± 2.9%	50%	33%	6%	4%	1%	6%
Emerson College	February 12−13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	32%	6%	1%	1%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	45%	28%	18%	9%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research	January 23 – February 2, 2024	815 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	36%	14%
Gonzales Research	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	53%	36%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	35%	9%
Gonzales Research	May 30 – June 6, 2023	841 (RV)	± 3.5%	51%	37%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Vivek Ramaswamy Republican	Other / Undecided
Gonzales Research	September 18–28, 2023	818 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	29%	15%

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

↑ This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

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References

↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
↑ "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved February 15, 2024.
↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
1 2 "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

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[Key-14] 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[emily-15] This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.

[2] "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved February 15, 2024.

[3] "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.

[4] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[hb535-5] 1 2 "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.

[6] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[12] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[13] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

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