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Elections in Florida |
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Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [1]
Despite being a heavily populated and fast-growing state once considered a presidential battleground and bellwether, Florida has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state. In 2020, Republican Donald Trump (who changed his resident state from New York to Florida in 2019 [2] ) carried the state again by 3.36 percentage points, an improvement from his 1.2% margin in 2016, despite Trump losing re-election nationwide and polls pointing to a narrow Democratic win in Florida. In addition, Republicans won all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms. [3] Thus, Florida is widely expected to remain in the Republican camp in the November 2024 election. [4]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for re-election to a second term. [5]
On May 23, 2024, the Reform Party of Florida applied to restore ballot access in the state. [6] That same day, the party selected independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for its nomination. [7]
The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 911,424 | 81.19% | 125 | 0 | 125 |
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 155,560 | 13.86% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 41,269 | 3.68% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,953 | 0.80% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,850 | 0.25% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 1,385 | 0.12% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 1,190 | 0.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 1,122,631 | 100.00% | 125 | 0 | 125 |
Source: [8] |
On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which means that the primary will be cancelled under Florida law.
This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips [9] and Marianne Williamson campaigns. [10] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move. [11] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips, Williamson, and Uygur's name to the ballot. [12] The voter lost in district court but is expected to appeal. [13]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Hillary Clinton | Kamala Harris | Gavin Newsom | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | Sep 15–18, 2022 | 163 (LV) | – | 50% | – | – | 33% | 17% |
Suffolk University | Jan 26–29, 2022 | 164 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | – | 11% |
Victory Insights | Sep 16–18, 2021 | 200 (LV) | – | 60% | – | 17% | – | 23% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [18] | Likely R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [19] | Lean R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [21] | Lean R | June 8, 2024 |
CNalysis [22] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [23] | Lean R | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist [24] | Likely R | June 12, 2024 |
538 [25] | Lean R | June 11, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 8–9, 2024 | 883 (A) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 42% | 13% |
771 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | 8% | ||
The Tyson Group (R) | June 6–9, 2024 | 1,050 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Prime Group [upper-alpha 1] | May 9–16, 2024 | 486 (RV) | – | 53% | 47% | – |
Cherry Communications (R) [upper-alpha 2] | April 28 – May 7, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 43% | 6% | ||
Emerson College | April 9–10, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 44% | – |
St. Pete Polls | March 11–13, 2024 | 1,963 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | October 27 – November 11, 2023 | 946 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1,100 (RV) | – | 44% | 39% | 17% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 39% | 2% |
Metropolitan Research Services | March 15–19, 2023 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 51% | – |
Rasmussen Reports (R) | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,224 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
Florida Atlantic University | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 50% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fox News | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,075 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Prime Group [upper-alpha 1] | May 9–16, 2024 | 486 (RV) | – | 48% | 39% | 9% | 3% | 1% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 8–9, 2024 | 883 (A) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 37% | 10% | 10% |
771 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 40% | 8% | 6% | ||
Cherry Communications (R) [upper-alpha 2] | April 28 – May 7, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 37% | 10% | 7% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 2-4, 2024 | 586 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 9% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 38% | 7% | 7% |
815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 40% | 6% | 5% | ||
USA Today/Ipsos | April 5–7, 2024 | 1,014 (A) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 31% | 7% | 23% |
Emerson College | April 9–10, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 35% | 6% | 11% [lower-alpha 3] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | March 14–17, 2024 | 815 (LV) | – | 46% | 39% | 7% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,147 (LV) | – | 45% | 34% | 9% | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 44% | 34% | 9% | 13% |
Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 37% | 11% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 7–9, 2023 | 1100 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Nikki Haley Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 27% | 32% | 16% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 27–29, 2023 | 897 (LV) | – | 38% | 34% | 12% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R) | November 13–15, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | October 27 – November 11, 2023 | 946 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 39% | 15% |
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | June 27 – July 1, 2023 | 933 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Emerson College | March 13–15, 2023 | 1,153 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
University of North Florida | February 25 – March 7, 2023 | 1,452 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 42% | 8% |
Cherry Communications | February 10–19, 2023 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
Victory Insights | November 16–17, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 47% | – |
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 44% | 4% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 51% | – |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) | September 11–12, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 55% | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | – | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Victory Insights | September 16–18, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 49% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
This is a timeline of major events leading up to, during, and after the 2024 United States presidential election. This will be the first presidential election to be run with population data from the 2020 census. In addition to the dates mandated by the relevant federal laws such as those in the U.S. Constitution and the Electoral Count Act, several milestones have consistently been observed since the adoption of the conclusions of the 1971 McGovern–Fraser Commission.
From January 23 to June 8, 2024, presidential primaries and caucuses were organized by the Democratic Party to select the delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention, to determine the party's nominee for president in the 2024 United States presidential election. The elections took place in most U.S. states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and Democrats Abroad. Incumbent President Joe Biden is running for re-election with Vice President Kamala Harris returning as his running mate. On March 12, Biden secured enough delegates for re-nomination and was declared the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Georgia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Georgia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Georgia has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which it neither gained nor lost a seat. Georgia is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Louisiana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes are expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts are expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates, something that has occurred in 2016 and 2020.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Oklahoma voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Rhode Island voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Rhode Island has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.
The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Utah is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Utah voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.