2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Mexico voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Since gaining statehood, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election except for 1976 (only backing the losing candidate by 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality. The state is favored to remain in the Democratic column in 2024. ^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3] If he carries New Mexico while losing the national popular vote, he will be only the second to do so in New Mexico history, joining Republican Gerald Ford in 1976.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary

The New Mexico Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary

The New Mexico Republican primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [4]	Likely D	June 12, 2024
Inside Elections [5]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [6]	Likely D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [7]	Likely D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [8]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [9]	Lean D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [10]	Lean D	June 12, 2024
538 [11]	Likely D	June 11, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	August 23–24, 2023	767 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	41%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 6–8, 2023	500 (LV)	–	49%	38%	13%
Emerson College	October 25–28, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	38%	14%
Emerson College	September 8–11, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	41%	12%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	August 23–24, 2023	767 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	43%	9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 6–8, 2023	500 (LV)	–	45%	43%	12%

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Mexico
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
5. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
6. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
10. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
11. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.