2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
Flag of West Virginia.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  Glenn Elliott WV.jpg Jim Justice 2021 (cropped).jpg
NomineeGlenn Elliott Jim Justice
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Joe Manchin
Independent



The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections took place on May 14, 2024. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he would not seek a third full term in office. [2] Manchin had been West Virginia's only congressional Democrat and the only Democrat holding any partisan statewide office in West Virginia until his departure from the party in May 2024. [3]

Background

Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, [4] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.

The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. [5] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are U.S. Representative Alex Mooney [6] and Governor Jim Justice. [7]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought reelection. [8] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. [9] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spurr Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario"; in any case, the proposal became moot when Blankenship lost the primary. [10]

The last time Republicans won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956. If Republicans win this seat as expected, it will be the first time since 1958 that both of West Virginia's U.S. Senate seats are simultaneously in Republican hands, and if they also win both U.S. House seats, it will mark the first time since 1909 that West Virginia’s congressional delegation is entirely Republican.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Glenn Elliott
U.S. senators
Local officials
Labor Unions
Zach Shrewsbury
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Zachary Shrewsbury (D)$190,545$139,586$50,959
Glenn Elliot (D)$110,207$29,058$81,149
Source: Federal Election Commission [23]

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Elliott
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Shrewsbury
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Blankenship
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Tie 2024 West Virginia Democratic Senate primary results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Elliott
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shrewsbury
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Blankenship
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Tie
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Glenn Elliott 46,145 45.41%
Democratic Zach Shrewsbury 36,70636.12%
Democratic Don Blankenship 18,76118.46%
Total votes101,612 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Justice
Federal officials
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Alex Mooney
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Justice (R)$2,577,752$1,516,541$1,061,211
Alex Mooney (R)$3,182,358$1,887,585$1,294,772
Source: Federal Election Commission [23]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
OtherUndecided
Emerson College May 2–5, 2024558 (LV)± 4.1%60%30%10% [lower-alpha 2]
Research America [upper-alpha 1] April 24 – May 1, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%67%23%7%3%
Osage Research [upper-alpha 2] April 22–24, 2024400(LV)± 4.9%49%35%5%11%
NMB Research April 20–22, 2024500(LV)± 4.38%60%24%16%
Research America [upper-alpha 1] April 3–9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%66%24%4%6%
Emerson College March 19–21, 2024735 (LV)± 3.6%54%17%1%22%
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R)
[upper-alpha 3]
November 13–14, 2023414 (LV)± 4.8%56%20%3% [lower-alpha 3] 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates [upper-alpha 4] September 11–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%62%23%15%
Research America [upper-alpha 1] August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%58%26%16%
Orion Strategies [upper-alpha 5] June 17–20, 2023651 (LV)± 6.0%56%19%9%16%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023796 (RV)± 3.7%53%12%35%
co/efficient April 24–25, 2023753 (LV)± 3.5%45%17%38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
Patrick
Morrisey
Undecided
National Public Affairs (R) March 14–17, 2023360 (LV)± 5.2%43%21%10%24%
Tarrance Group (R) February 5–7, 2023609 (LV) [lower-alpha 4] ± 4.1%53%16%21%8%

Results

Results by county:
Justice
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Mooney
40-50%
60-70% 2024 West Virginia Republican Senate primary results by county map.svg
Results by county:
  Justice
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Mooney
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Justice 138,197 61.84%
Republican Alex Mooney 59,31326.54%
Republican Bryan Bird6,9913.13%
Republican Bryan McKinney6,5702.94%
Republican Zane Lawhorn4,5122.02%
Republican Janet McNulty4,4011.97%
Republican Don Lindsay3,5011.57%
Total votes223,485 100.00%

Other candidates

Independents

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] Solid R (flip)May 17, 2024
Inside Elections [53] Solid R (flip)May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] Safe R (flip)April 17, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [55] Safe R (flip)June 8, 2024
Elections Daily [9] Safe R (flip)May 4, 2023
CNalysis [56] Solid R (flip)November 21, 2023

Endorsements

Glenn Elliott (D)
U.S. senators
Local officials
Labor Unions
Jim Justice (R)
Federal officials
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Glenn Elliot (D)$110,207$29,058$81,149
Jim Justice (R)$2,577,752$1,516,541$1,061,211
Source: Federal Election Commission [23]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Glenn
Elliot (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
Kaplan Strategies June 3, 2024464 (RV)± 4.6%27%60%13%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%28%41%31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%38%51%11%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%32%54%1%13%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%29%43%28%
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%42%52%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%32%47%21%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%41%37%22%
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%37%31%31%
Research America August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%45%41%14%
ECU Center for Survey Research May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%40%41%1%18%
co/efficient (R) April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%34%
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%55%40%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%38%45%12%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%49%28%16%7%
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
OtherUndecided
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%52%42%6%
Triton Polling & Research (R) August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%36%50%9%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%50%29%7%16%
Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (I)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 6] September 24–26, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%43%49%8%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Glenn Elliott
Republican Jim Justice
Total votes

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Zane Lawhorn with 3%; Bryan Bird, Bryan McKinney, and Janet McNulty with 2%; Don Lindsay with 1%
  3. Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  4. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. This poll was sponsored by Alex Mooney's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by WMOV.
  4. This poll was sponsored by Jim Justice's campaign
  5. This poll was sponsored by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  6. 1 2 3 4 Poll commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates

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