2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election
Flag of Tennessee.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
Turnout54.46% Increase2.svg [1] 20.49 pp
  Bill Lee 2020.jpg Karl Dean by Leon Roberts.jpg
Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,336,106864,863
Percentage59.56%38.55%

2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Tennessee Gubernatorial Election by congressional district.svg
2018 Tennessee governor election by state senate district.svg
2018 Tennessee governor election by state house district.svg
TN Governor 2018.svg
Lee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Dean:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No data

Governor before election

Bill Haslam
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee. Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited, and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. Republican candidate Bill Lee was elected with 59.6% of the vote, defeating Democratic nominee and former Nashville mayor Karl Dean.

Contents

The primary elections took place on August 2, 2018, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations. [2]

During the general election, Dean flipped back reliably Democratic Davidson, Haywood, and Shelby Counties, which voted for Republican Governor Bill Haslam in 2010.

The results of the election marked the first time since 1982 that a candidate from the incumbent president's party was elected governor of Tennessee. This is also the first time that Republicans won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state, and the first time that a Republican was elected to succeed another Republican.

As of 2018, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of the state's party affiliation and ballot access laws. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Beth Harwell
Diane Black
Randy Boyd
Bill Lee
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black
Randy
Boyd
Beth
Harwell
Bill
Lee
OtherUndecided
JMC Analytics July 18–21, 2018500± 4.4%19%20%16%26%1% [64] 17%
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018266± 6.4%27%22%14%19%3%14%
Data Orbital June 27–30, 2018700± 3.7%24%23%10%19%24%
Triton Polling & Research (R) June 25–28, 20181,040± 3.1%27%33%7%20%13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) May 14–17, 2018600± 4.0%41%28%8%9%15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) May 4–6, 201880041%26%6%11%15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) April 201833%30%5%13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) March 201831%31%10%10%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018390± 5.0%25%20%6%7%2% [65] 37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) February 5–11, 2018600± 4.0%22%25%4%18%30%
Triton Polling & Research (R) December 12–18, 20171,028± 3.1%22%12%6%4%4% [66] 53%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Lee
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Boyd
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Black
20-30%
30-40% Tennessee Governor R Primary 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Lee
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Boyd
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Black
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [67]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bill Lee 291,414 36.75
Republican Randy Boyd193,05424.35
Republican Diane Black182,45723.01
Republican Beth Harwell121,48415.32
Republican Kay White3,2150.41
Republican Basil Marceaux1,2640.16
Total votes792,888 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Karl Dean
Federal officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Karl
Dean
Craig
Fitzhugh
OtherUndecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018206± 7.3%44%14%9%33%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018288± 5.8%41%11%44%

Results

Results by county:
Dean
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100%
Fitzhugh
40-50%
50-60%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% Tennessee gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Dean
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
  Fitzhugh
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
Democratic primary results [75]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Karl Dean 280,553 75.14
Democratic Craig Fitzhugh72,55323.42
Democratic Mezianne Vale Payne20,2845.44
Total votes373,390 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Libertarian Party and Green Party do not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent." [77]

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Bill Lee (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Karl Dean (D)
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [94] Likely ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [95] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [96] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [97] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [98] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [99] Likely RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [100] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [101] [lower-alpha 1] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [102] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [103] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Lee (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 201848053%44%2%
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018621± 4.0%54%41%2%3%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018718 LV± 3.5%54%37%2%7%
850 RV± 3.0%52%36%2%9%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018780± 3.5%56%44%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018764 LV± 4.3%52%42%0%4%
871 RV± 4.0%52%41%0%5%
East Tennessee State University Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 22–29, 2018495± 4.4%48%36%5%9%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018497± 4.4%59%36%3%2%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018471 LV± 5.7%57%40%1%3%
764 RV± 4.4%56%39%1%4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018800± 4.9%48%37%0%12%
Targoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018558 LV56%44%
801 RV49%39%12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018593± 4.2%59%33%8%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018666 LV± 3.5%53%36%1%10%
806 RV± 3.5%52%35%1%10%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 20181,609± 3.3%46%35%19%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018567± 4.1%55%45%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018723 LV± 4.3%52%43%0%3%
852 RV± 3.9%49%43%0%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 20181,038± 3.0%54%37%9%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018686 LV± 3.5%55%35%1%10%
809 RV± 3.5%52%34%2%12%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018538 LV± 5.1%53%40%1%7%
730 RV± 4.5%51%39%1%9%
Gravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018620± 3.9%51%40%9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%38%34%28%
Hypothetical polling
with Karl Dean
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018657± 4.1%35%39%27%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%46%35%19%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%40%31%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Boyd (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived August 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 11–14, 2018657± 4.1%34%36%30%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%43%34%23%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%38%35%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Beth
Harwell (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%43%33%25%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%38%33%29%
with Craig Fitzhugh
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%42%27%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Boyd (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%39%30%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Beth
Harwell (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%44%24%32%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mae
Beavers (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%36%36%28%
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%32%37%32%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mae
Beavers (R)
Craig
Fitzhugh (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%36%29%34%

Results

Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018 [104]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.56% -10.75%
Democratic Karl Dean 864,86338.55%+15.71%
OtherOther candidates42,3141.89%N/A
Write-in 110.00%0.00%
Total votes2,243,294 100.0% N/A
Republican hold
Full results
Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.6
Democratic Karl Dean864,86338.6
Independent Sherry L. Clark5,1980.2
Independent Mark Wright4,6870.2
Independent Patrick Whitlock3,6310.2
Independent Yvonne Neubert3,0700.1
Independent Heather Scott2,9690.1
Independent Mark CoonRippy Brown2,8410.1
Independent Joe B. Wilmoth2,4440.1
Independent George Blackwell Smith IV1,5500.1
Independent Cory King1,5020.1
Independent Tracy C. Yaste Tisdale1,3960.1
Independent Justin Cornett1,2170.1
Independent Chad Riden1,0960.0
Independent Robert Sawyers Sr.1,0590.0
Independent Vinnie Vineyard1,0120.0
Independent Rick Tyler9810.0
Independent Gabriel Fancher8690.0
Independent Sean Bruce Fleming8140.0
Independent Alfred Shawn Rapoza8000.0
Independent Jessie D. McDonald7550.0
Independent Toney Randall Mitchell7390.0
Independent Mike Toews7260.0
Independent Matthew Koch6520.0
Independent Jeremy Allen Stephenson6130.0
Independent Tommy Ray McAnally6090.0
Independent Jaron D. Weidner5880.0
Independent William Andrew Helmstetter4960.0
Independent Eddie Murphy (write-in)110.0
Total votes2,243,294 100.0
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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  34. Mike Pence. ".@DianeBlackTN is running for Governor of TN & a strong supporter of #MAGA agenda of tax cuts, military $$ & a champion of right to life policies. There are great candidates running but Diane has been my friend for years, we served together in the House, & she has my support!". Twitter.
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  36. Diane Black. "Honored to receive the endorsement of @RickSantorum, a leader who is not afraid to fight for conservative values. Tennessee stood behind Rick in his 2012 race for President, and I'm proud to have him behind me in my race for Governor. #TeamBlack". Twitter.
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  38. "Jordan Sekulow endorses Diane Black for Governor". Diane Black for Governor. May 24, 2018. Archived from the original on July 15, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  39. Diane Black. "Honored to have the endorsement of Dr. Swain, and don't forget to vote early starting tomorrow!". Twitter.
  40. "National Right to Life Endorses Diane Black for Governor". Diane Black for Governor. Archived from the original on July 15, 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
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  60. 1 2 "Honored to Have the endorsement of Scott Hamilton".
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  65. Kay White 2%
  66. Mae Beavers 4%
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  79. Mike Pence. "Congratulations on a big primary win to @BillLeeTN! The people of Tennessee are fortunate to have a man like you step up to serve as their Governor. @realDonaldTrump and I strongly support you & look forward to campaigning with you to victory in November!". Twitter.
  80. Lamar Alexander. "Congratulations to Bill Lee on tonight's victory. As I've often said, there is no better job than being governor of your home state, especially if that state is Tennessee. I look forward to working with Bill to continue Governor Haslam's excellent leadership of our state". Twitter.
  81. Bundgaard, Chris (August 3, 2018). "Diane Black throws support behind Bill Lee after GOP governor primary loss".
  82. Marsha Blackburn. "Congratulations, @BillLeeTN! I look forward to uniting the party and working together for Tennessee". Twitter.
  83. Bill Haslam. "Congrats to @BillLeeTN on winning the Republican nomination for TN governor". Twitter.
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  91. Terry McAuliffe. "Phone banking for @KarlFDean #TeamDean". Twitter.
  92. Martin O'Malley. "It's great to be in Nashville with @PhilBredesen and @KarlFDean! Tennessee is fired up and feeling that blue wave!". Twitter.
  93. Rep. Craig Fitzhugh. "I'm all in for @KarlFDean and you should be, too. For more #jobs, higher wages, for #educators & #MedicaidExpansion—there's only one choice. #TeamDean". Twitter.
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Official campaign websites