2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
Flag of Hawaii.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
  Governor David Ige (cropped 2).jpg Andria Tupola.jpg
Nominee David Ige Andria Tupola
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Josh Green Marissa Kerns
Popular vote244,934131,719
Percentage62.67%33.70%

2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Ige:     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

David Ige
Democratic

Elected Governor

David Ige
Democratic

The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii.

Contents

After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.

Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum. [1] This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. As of 2023, this election was the only time since 1998 that an incumbent Democratic Governor of Hawaii was re-elected.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Debates

DatesLocationIgeHanabusaLink
July 6, 2018 Honolulu, Hawaii ParticipantParticipant Full debateYouTube

Endorsements

Colleen Hanabusa
Individuals
Organizations
  • Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters [13]
  • Hawaii Government Employees Association [13]
  • State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers [13]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers [13]
  • International Longshore and Warehouse Union [13]
  • Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council [13]
  • University of Hawaii Professional Assembly [13]
  • International Union of Painters and Associated Trades [13]
  • Laborers' International Union of North America [13]
  • Hawaii Fire Fighters Association [13]
  • Hawaii State AFL-CIO [13]
  • Seafarers International Union [13]
David Ige
Individuals
Organizations
  • Hawaii State Teachers Association [13]
  • United Public Workers [13]
  • Unite Here Local 5 [13]
  • Ironworkers Union [13]
  • Plasterers & Cement Masons Union [13]
  • Hawaii Association of Public Accountants [13]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Ige
Colleen
Hanabusa
Clayton
Hee
Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018871± 3.3%43%34%18%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018494± 4.5%44%40%16%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) June 21 – July 6, 2018518± 4.4%31%57%11%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) April 21 – May 7, 2018888± 3.4%23%52%6%19%
Merriman River Group May 3–5, 2018707± 3.7%31%37%11%16%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018498± 4.5%27%47%11%15%

Results

Results by county:
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Ige--50-60%
Ige--40-50%
Hanabusa--40-50%
No data 2018 HI gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Ige—50–60%
  Ige—40–50%
  Hanabusa—40–50%
  No data
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 124,572 51.4
Democratic Colleen Hanabusa 107,63144.4
Democratic Ernest Caravalho5,6622.3
Democratic Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a2,2980.9
Democratic Richard Kim1,5760.6
Democratic Van Tanabe7750.3
Total votes242,514 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Endorsements

Kim Coco Iwamoto
Organizations
  • UNITE Here Local 5 [21]
Individuals
Jill Tokuda
Organizations
  • University of Hawaii Professional Assembly [23]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bernard
Carvalho
Will
Espero
Josh
Green
Kim Coco
Iwamoto
Jill
Tokuda
Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018871± 3.3%13%5%31%10%17%26%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018494± 4.5%14%6%34%10%14%22%
Merriman River Group May 3–5, 2018707± 3.7%19%8%16%14%11%32%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018498± 4.5%14%9%19%5%12%41%

Results

Results by county:
Green--50-60%
Green--30-40%
Tokuda--30-40%
Carvalho--40-50%
No data 2018 HI Lt. gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Green—50–60%
  Green—30–40%
  Tokuda—30–40%
  Carvalho—40–50%
  No data
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Green 74,845 31.4
Democratic Jill Tokuda 68,12428.6
Democratic Bernard P. Carvalho45,82519.2
Democratic Kim Coco Iwamoto 34,24314.3
Democratic Will Espero15,4636.5
Total votes238,500 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator [7] [24]
  • Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel [25]
  • Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives [26] [24]
Withdrew

Endorsements

Andria Tupola
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Carroll
Raymond
L'Heureux
Andria
Tupola
Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018219± 6.6%22%4%39%22%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018143± 8.4%28%8%41%23%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018134± 8.6%40%28%32%

Results

Results by county:
Tupola--50-60%
Tupola--40-50%
No data 2018 HI gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Tupola—50–60%
  Tupola—40–50%
  No data
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Andria Tupola 17,297 55.5
Republican John Carroll10,97435.2
Republican Ray L'Heureux2,8859.3
Total votes31,156 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Marissa Kerns
  • Steve Lipscomb
  • Jeremy Low

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Marissa
Kerns
Jeremy
Low
Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018219± 6.6%26%20%54%

Results

Results by county:
Kerns--30-40%
Lipscomb--30-40%
No data 2018 HI Lt. gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Kerns—30–40%
  Lipscomb—30–40%
  No data
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Marissa Dipasupil Kerns 9,758 35.4
Republican Steve Lipscomb9,54334.7
Republican Jeremy Low8,23229.9
Total votes27,533 100.0

Green primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Jim Brewer

Results

Results by county:
Brewer--100%
No data 2018 HI gubernatorial Green primary.svg
Results by county:
  Brewer—100%
  No data
Green primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Jim Brewer 454 100.0
Total votes454 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Renee Ing

Results

Results by county:
Ing--100%
No data 2018 HI lt. gubernatorial Green primary.svg
Results by county:
  Ing—100%
  No data
Green primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Renee Ing 444 100.0
Total votes444 100.0

Nonpartisan primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Selina Blackwell
  • Link El
  • Terrence Teruya
Results
Results by county:
Teruya--50-60%
Blackwell--40-50%
Blackwell--50-60%
No data 2018 HI gubernatorial Nonpartisan primary.svg
Results by county:
  Teruya—50–60%
  Blackwell—40–50%
  Blackwell—50–60%
  No data
Nonpartisan primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya 543 47.7
Nonpartisan Selina Blackwell49743.7
Nonpartisan Link El988.6
Total votes1,138 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Ernest Magaoay
  • Paul Robotti
Results
Results by county:
Robotti--50-60%
Magaoay--50-60%
No Data 2018 Hawaii lt. gubernatorial nonpartisan primary.svg
Results by county:
  Robotti—50–60%
  Magaoay—50–60%
  No Data
Nonpartisan primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Nonpartisan Paul Robotti 536 50.6
Nonpartisan Ernest Magaoay52349.4
Total votes1,059 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] Safe DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [31] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [32] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [33] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [35] Safe DNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [36] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [37] [lower-alpha 1] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Politico [38] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Governing [39] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

DatesLocationIgeTupolaLink
October 29, 2018 Honolulu, Hawaii ParticipantParticipant Full debateC-SPAN

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Ige (D)
Andria
Tupola (R)
Undecided
Merriman River Group October 8–12, 2018961± 4.3%52%31%11%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018800± 3.5%57%34%9%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018800± 3.5%51%24%25%
Hypothetical polling
with David Ige and John Carroll
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Ige (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018800± 3.5%62%23%15%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018800± 3.5%52%27%21%
with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Ige (D)
Raymond
L'Heureux (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018800± 3.5%67%20%13%
with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018800± 3.5%51%31%18%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018800± 3.5%57%31%12%
with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Andria
Tupola (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018800± 3.5%48%35%17%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018800± 3.5%56%28%16%
with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Colleen
Hanabusa (D)
Raymond
L'Heureux (R)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018800± 3.5%58%26%16%

Results

Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018 [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 244,934 62.67% Increase2.svg13.22
Republican Andria Tupola 131,71933.70%Decrease2.svg 3.38
Green Jim Brewer10,1232.59%N/A
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya4,0671.04%N/A
Total votes390,843 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

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Official campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites