2009 Higgins by-election

Last updated

2009 Higgins by-election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
  2007 5 December 2009 2010  

Division of Higgins
 First partySecond party
  Kelly O'Dwyer 2017.jpg Hamilton Clive 07.JPG
Candidate Kelly O'Dwyer Clive Hamilton
Party Liberal Greens
Popular vote36,42121,628
Percentage54.6%32.4%
SwingIncrease2.svg0.96ppIncrease2.svg21.65pp
TPP 60.23%39.77%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg3.19ppIncrease2.svg39.77pp

Higgins-2007-in-Melbourne.png
Location of Higgins within metropolitan Melbourne

MP before election

Peter Costello
Liberal

Elected MP

Kelly O'Dwyer
Liberal

The 2009 Higgins by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives Division of Higgins on 5 December 2009. [1] This was triggered by the resignation of former Treasurer and former Liberal Party deputy leader Peter Costello. [2] The by-election was held on the same day as the Bradfield by-election.

Contents

It was contested on the same boundaries drawn for Higgins at the 2007 federal election. At that election, the Liberal Party won the seat over the Labor Party with 57.04 per cent of the vote on a two-party-preferred basis, the closest result in the seat's 60-year history. The Liberal candidate has never had to go to preferences to win the seat.

The writ for the by-election was issued on 30 October, with the rolls closing on 9 November. Candidate nominations closed 12 November, and were announced the following day. [3] The Labor Party did not nominate a candidate.

Both the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections were the last by-elections for the House of Representatives until the 2014 Griffith by-election.

Background

Costello first won the seat of Higgins at the 1990 federal election, and retained the seat in the six subsequent elections. At the 2007 federal election, the opposition Kevin Rudd-led Labor Party defeated the incumbent John Howard-led Liberal-National coalition government. This marked the first change of government in over 11 years. Costello was deputy Liberal leader since 1994, firstly under Alexander Downer and then under John Howard, and was Treasurer in the Howard government from its formation in 1996. On the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Costello declined to become Liberal leader and a position in the shadow ministry and returned to the backbenches. [4] Costello had initially indicated (15 June 2009) he would stay as the member until the next election, at which time he would retire from parliament. However, on 7 October 2009, Costello announced he would be resigning from Parliament when it resumed later in the month. He resigned on 19 October 2009. [5]

Campaign

A polling booth at Toorak on polling day Higgins by-election, 2009 - Toorak polling station.jpg
A polling booth at Toorak on polling day

The Labor Party did not nominate a candidate for the by-election.

The Higgins and Bradfield by-election campaigns were overshadowed by Liberal infighting over Labor Party government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, culminating in the replacement of Malcolm Turnbull with Tony Abbott as Liberal leader. Although fairly safe on paper, some commentators including Malcolm Mackerras tipped the Greens to defeat the Liberals in Higgins, and force the Liberals to preferences in Bradfield. [6] [7]

Liberal Party candidate Kelly O'Dwyer focussed her campaigning on local issues and attempted to distance herself from federal affairs, whereas the Greens Clive Hamilton campaigned primarily for stronger action on climate change. [8]

Candidates

The following table is the order and party affiliation of each candidate that has nominated to contest the seat of Higgins. Candidates are placed in the order of the ballot paper. [9]

Ballot NumberPartyCandidateProfessionNotes
1  Independent Stephen MurphyComputer programmerSupported by the unregistered Climate Sceptics Party [10]
2  Australian Sex Party Fiona Patten Party leader [11]
3  Liberal Party of Australia Kelly O'Dwyer Executive, National Australia BankFormer staffer for Peter Costello [12]
4  Liberal Democratic Party Isaac RobertsAccountant
5  Australian Greens Dr Clive Hamilton Professor of Public Ethics, Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public EthicsFormer executive director, the Australia Institute [13]
6  Australian Democrats David CollyerFormer Parliamentary AdvisorWorked for former senator Lyn Allison [14]
7  Independent Joseph Toscano Anarchist campaigner
8  One Nation Steve Raskovy Former Hungarian wrestler and refugee [15]
9  Independent Peter BrohierLawyer
10  Democratic Labor Party John MulhollandPsychologist

The Australian Labor Party did not stand a candidate.

Results

The Liberal Party easily retained the seat. [16]

2009 Higgins by-election [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Kelly O'Dwyer 36,42154.57+0.96
Greens Clive Hamilton 21,62832.40+21.65
Democratic Labour John Mulholland2,5723.85+3.85
Sex Party Fiona Patten 2,1443.21+3.21
Democrats David Collyer1,5312.29+1.08
  Ind. Climate Sceptics Stephen Murphy1,1451.72+1.72
Independent Joseph Toscano 5230.78+0.78
Liberal Democrats Isaac Roberts3360.50+0.50
Independent Peter Brohier2360.35+0.35
One Nation Steve Raskovy 2110.32+0.32
Total formal votes66,74795.85−1.58
Informal votes2,8704.15+1.58
Turnout 69,63779.00−14.77
Two-candidate-preferred result
Liberal Kelly O'Dwyer 40,20360.23+3.19
Greens Clive Hamilton 26,54439.77+39.77
Liberal hold Swing N/A

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 Australian federal election</span> Election for the 41st Parliament of Australia

The 2004 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 9 October 2004. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate were up for election. The incumbent Liberal Party of Australia led by Prime Minister of Australia John Howard and coalition partner the National Party of Australia led by John Anderson defeated the opposition Australian Labor Party led by Mark Latham.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Family First Party</span> Political party in Australia

The Family First Party was a conservative political party in Australia which existed from 2002 to 2017. It was founded in South Australia where it enjoyed its greatest electoral support. Since the demise of the Australian Conservatives into which it merged, it has been refounded in that state as the Family First Party (2021), where it contested the state election in 2022, but failed to win a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Division of Higgins</span> Australian federal electoral division

The Division of Higgins is an Australian Electoral Division in Victoria for the Australian House of Representatives. The division covers 41 km2 (16 sq mi) in Melbourne's inner south-eastern suburbs. The main suburbs include Armadale, Ashburton, Carnegie, Glen Iris, Kooyong, Malvern, Malvern East, Murrumbeena, Prahran and Toorak; along with parts of Camberwell, Ormond and South Yarra. Though historically a safe conservative seat, Higgins was won by the Liberal Party by a margin of just 3.9 percent over the Labor Party at the 2019 election, the closest result in the seat’s history. It then flipped to Labor in the 2022 election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2007 Australian federal election</span> Election for the 42nd Parliament of Australia

The 2007 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 24 November 2007. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the seats in the 76-member Senate were up for election. The election featured a 39-day campaign, with 13.6 million Australians enrolled to vote.

The Division of Sturt is an Australian electoral division in South Australia. It was proclaimed at the South Australian redistribution of 11 May 1949. Sturt was named for Captain Charles Sturt, a nineteenth century British Military officer and explorer.

The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower or unicameral houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, as well as Tasmania's upper house, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Two-party-preferred vote</span> Result of election after distribution of preferences

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the two candidates with the highest number of votes who, in some cases, can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 50%, Labor 50%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

This is a list of members of the Australian House of Representatives of the 42nd Parliament of Australia (2007–2010), as elected at the 2007 federal election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Australian federal election</span> Election for the 43rd Parliament of Australia

The 2010 Australian federal election was held on Saturday, 21 August 2010 to elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia. The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party led by Prime Minister Julia Gillard won a second term against the opposition centre-right Liberal Party of Australia led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and Coalition partner the National Party of Australia, led by Warren Truss, after Labor formed a minority government with the support of three independent MPs and one Australian Greens MP.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 South Australian state election</span>

The 2010 South Australian state election elected members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, became vacant.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 Gippsland by-election</span> Australian federal by-election

The 2008 Gippsland by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Gippsland on 28 June 2008. It was triggered by the resignation of National Party MP Peter McGauran.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 Mayo by-election</span>

The 2008 Mayo by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Mayo, located in Adelaide, South Australia, on 6 September 2008, following the retirement of Liberal Party MP and former Liberal leader Alexander Downer. The by-election was held on the same day as the Lyne by-election, and the Western Australian state election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Frome state by-election</span>

A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin. The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Bradfield by-election</span>

The 2009 Bradfield by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Bradfield on 5 December 2009. This was triggered as a result of the resignation of former minister and ex-Liberal Party leader Brendan Nelson. The by-election was held on the same day as the Higgins by-election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kelly O'Dwyer</span> Australian politician (born 1977)

Kelly Megan O'Dwyer is a former Australian politician. She served in the House of Representatives from 2009 to 2019, representing the Liberal Party, and held senior ministerial office from 2015 to 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Griffith by-election</span>

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Griffith occurred on Saturday 8 February 2014. Terri Butler retained the seat for Labor with a 51.8 (−1.2) percent two-party vote against Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson.

On 5 April 2014, an Australian Senate special election in Western Australia was held. The special election was held six months after the 2013 Australian federal election. The result of that 2013 election for the Australian Senate in Western Australia was voided on 20 February 2014 by the High Court of Australia, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, because 1,375 ballot papers were lost during an official recount in November 2013. The High Court ruled that because the number of lost ballots exceeded the margin for the two remaining Senate seats, the only acceptable remedy was to void the results and hold a special election.

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

The Australian Labor Party won the 2022 federal election, winning 77 of 151 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition holds 58 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining 16.

This is a list of electoral results for the Australian Senate in Western Australia since Federation in 1901.

References

  1. Higgins, Bradfield by-elections announced, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 26 October 2009.
  2. "Peter Costello to resign from federal Parliament: The Australian 7/10/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 8 October 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  3. "Candidates for Higgins (Vic) 2009 by-election (Saturday 5 December)". AEC. 8 June 2007. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  4. "Costello won't stand". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  5. "The Hon Peter Costello MP". aph.gov.au.
  6. "Mackerras predicts boilover in Higgins: The Australian 3 December 2009". The Australian. 3 December 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  7. Grattan, Michelle (4 December 2009). "A day that changed everything: SMH 4 December 2009". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  8. Milanda Rout, Higgins hopeful in climate-change push, The Australian, December 2009
  9. "The AEC has recently restructured our content". Aec.gov.au. 8 June 2007. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  10. "Higgins by-election: December 5 – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. 7 October 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  11. "Parliament 'needs a sex party': The Australian 6 November 2009". News.com.au. 6 November 2009. Archived from the original on 9 November 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  12. "Kelly O'Dwyer secures preselection for Peter Costello's seat of Higgins: Herald Sun 17/09/2009". Herald Sun. 17 September 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  13. "Greens announce candidate for Higgins: ABC News 23/10/2009". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 23 October 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  14. "Australian DemocratsAustralian Democrats Press Releases". Democrats.org.au. 30 October 2009. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  15. Strong, Geoff (5 November 2009). "Olympian steps up to grapple for Higgins: SMH 5 November 2009". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  16. Antony Green (5 December 2009). "Antony Green by-election commentary". ABC. Retrieved 25 June 2010.
  17. Virtual Tally Room: AEC Archived 11 December 2009 at the Wayback Machine