2012 Bahamian general election

2012 Bahamian general election

←  2007 7 May 2012 (2012-05-07) 2017  →
All 38 seats in the House of Assembly 20 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party   Leader Perry Christie Hubert Ingraham Party PLP FNM Last election 47.02%, 18 seats 49.86% , 23 seats Seats won 29 9 Seat change 11 14 Popular vote 75,815 65,633 Percentage 48.62% 42.09% Swing 1.60pp 7.77pp
Results in New Providence (top), Family Island (centre) and Grand Bahama (bottom)
Prime Minister before election Hubert Ingraham FNM Prime Minister Perry Christie PLP

General elections were held in the Bahamas on 7 May 2012. They were the first general election in which a third party (the Democratic National Alliance) offered a full slate of candidates alongside the two major parties, the Free National Movement and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). ^[1] The result was a victory for the opposition PLP, whose leader Perry Christie became prime minister.

Background

The Free National Movement had defeated the Progressive Liberal Party in the 2007 general election amid a scandal involving the residency status of model and reality television star Anna Nicole Smith and allegations that the PLP's then-immigration minister had fast-tracked her application to live in the islands. ^[2]

Opinion polls

An opinion poll was carried out by Public Domain, a market research and public opinion polling company, between 2 and 12 March 2012 that involved 501 respondents. A sample of this proportion only represented a maximum margin of error of 4.4 per cent. The poll showed that the Free National Movement's (FNM) core support was the highest at 30.5 per cent, followed by the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) at 23.7 per cent, and the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) at 16.5 per cent. A total of 12.2 per cent of the sample were undecided voters. Also the poll revealed that the PLP's swing voters constituted 6.6 per cent of the sample; the largest swing voter percentage. They were followed by the DNA ( who had 5.2 per cent swing voters ) and the FNM ( who had 3.7 per cent swing voters ). Therefore, the total support for the FNM was around 34.2 per cent, which was followed by the PLP's 30.3 per cent and the DNA's 21.7 per cent. If any of the two leading parties were to win the support of the entire 12.2 per cent undecided voters, they would win the general election. A question was asked during the polling process that went, According to you, which party will win the next election?. The results were that the FNM would ( at 32% ), the PLP would ( at 32% ) and the DNA would ( at 8% ) win the next general election. The poll also reported that 52% of the electorate was against reelecting the incumbent Free National Movement, while 55.9% opposed electing the PLP and 64.5% rejected electing the DNA. ^[3]

Results

The opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) won a majority in a landslide election victory, taking 30 of the 38 seats in parliament. ^[2] PLP leader Perry Christie, who had previously served as Prime Minister, was sworn into office on 8 May 2012, at approximately 4 pm. ^[2]

Outgoing Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham announced his retirement from politics following the defeat of his Free National Movement (FNM). ^[2] He had served in Parliament for thirty-five years, winning re-election seven times, including 2012. ^[2] Ingraham told supporters, "I gave it the best I could and now I've been rejected by the public of the Bahamas...We had no indication from the general public they would go that way." ^[2] Ingraham then confirmed his retirement, saying, "I am going to go back to my little law office and enjoy life with my family." ^[2]

The Democratic National Alliance lost the only seat it held in the prior parliament (that of Branville McCartney, its founder and only MP) and elected no candidates.

Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	Progressive Liberal Party	75,815	48.62	29	+11
	Free National Movement	65,633	42.09	9	–14
	Democratic National Alliance	13,225	8.48	0	New
	Bahamas Constitution Party	96	0.06	0	New
	Independents	1,177	0.75	0	0
Total		155,946	100.00	38	–3
Valid votes		155,946	99.91
Invalid/blank votes		142	0.09
Total votes		156,088	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		171,932	90.78
Source: Caribbean Elections

By constituency

Electoral District Total votes	Candidates				Incumbent
	Free National Movement	Progressive Liberal Party	Democratic National Alliance	Other
Bain Town and Grants Town 4,962	John Henry Bostwick 1,754 (35.35%)	Bernard Nottage 2,856 (57.56%)	Rodney Moncur 333 (6.71%)	Mario Clarke (IND) 19 (0.38%)	Bernard Nottage
Bamboo Town 4,952	Cassius Stuart 1,661 (33.54%)	Renward Wells 1,940 (39.18%)	Branville McCartney 1,022 (20.64%)	Craig Butler (IND) 329 (6.64%)	Branville McCartney
Carmichael 4,769	Darron Cash 2,063 (43.26%)	Daniel Johnson 2,157 (45.23%)	Theofanis Chochinamogulos 527 (11.05%)	Glen Rolle (IND) 22 (0.46%)	Desmond Bannister
Cat Island, Rum Cay & San Salvador 1,480	Michael Pintard 693 (46.82%)	Philip "Brave" Davis 778 (52.57%)	Shawn Francis 9 (0.61%)		Philip Brave Davis
Central and South Abaco 2,967	Edison Key 1,490 (50.22%)	Gary Sawyer 1,235 (41.62%)	Roscoe Thompson 242 (8.16%)		Edison Key
Central and South Eleuthera 2,775	Howard Johnson 1,326 (47.78%)	Damian Gomez 1,392 (50.16%)	William Hunt 57 (2.05%)		James Ingraham
Central Grand Bahama 5,202	Neko Grant 2,505 (48.15%)	Julian Russell 2,354 (45.25%)	Howard Grant, Jr. 343 (6.59%)		New district
Centreville 4,853	Ella Lewis 1,601 (32.99%)	Perry Christie 2,950 (60.79%)	Celi Moss 302 (6.22%)		New district
East Grand Bahama 4,758	Peter Turnquest 2,239 (47.06%)	Tanisha Tynes 2,060 (43.30%)	Ferline Bridgewater-Thomas 402 (8.45%)	Philip Thomas (IND) 57 (1.20%)	New district
Elizabeth 4,372	Duane Sands 1,925 (44.03%)	Ryan Pinder 2,049 (46.87%)	Charlene Paul 385 (8.81%)	Jay Armbrister (IND) 13 (0.30%)	Ryan Pinder
Englerston 4,806	Caron Shepard 1,576 (32.79%)	Glenys Hanna Martin 2,962 (61.63%)	Nicholas Jacques 219 (4.56%)	S. Ali McIntosh (BCP) 18 (0.37%) Paul Rolle (IND) 5 (0.10%) C. Rashard Amahad (IND) 7 (0.15%) Alexander Morley (IND) 19 (0.40%)	Glenys Hanna Martin
Exumas and Ragged Island 2,697	Phenton Neymour 1,235 (45.79%)	Anthony Moss 1,355 (50.24%)	Floyd Ambrister 94 (3.49%)	Colin Miller (BCP) 8 (0.30%) Reginald Smith (IND) 5 (0.19%)	Anthony Moss
Fort Charlotte 4,620	Zhivargo Laing 1,975 (42.75%)	Andre Rollins 2,126 (46.02%)	Mark Humes 519 (11.23%)		Alfred Sears
Fox Hill 4,370	Shonell Ferguson 1,571 (35.95%)	Fred Mitchell 2,448 (56.02%)	Kendal Smith 351 (8.03%)		Fred Mitchell
Garden Hills 4,512	Brensil Rolle 1,913 (42.40%)	Kendal Major 2,181 (48.34%)	Kelphene Cunningham 382 (8.47%)	Paul Moss (IND) 36 (0.80%)	Brensil Rolle
Golden Gates 4,822	Winsome Miller 1,556 (32.27%)	Shane Gibson 2,831 (58.71%)	Allsworth Pickstock 435 (9.02%)		Shane Gibson
Golden Isles 4,614	Charles Maynard 1,813 (39.29%)	Michael Halkitis 2,220 (48.11%)	Farrell Goff 581 (12.59%)		Michael Halkitis
Killarney 4,598	Hubert Minnis 2,434 (52.94%)	Jerome Gomez 1,642 (35.71%)	Prodesta Moore 522 (11.35%)		Hubert Minnis
Long Island 1,729	Loretta Butler-Turner 979 (56.62%)	Alex Storr 531 (30.71%)	Mario Cartwright 219 (12.67%)		Lawrence Cartwright
Mangrove Cay and South Andros 2,037	Ronald Bostfield 532 (26.12%)	Picewell Forbes 794 (38.98%)	Wayde Forbes 85 (4.17%)	Whitney Bastian (IND) 626 (30.73%)	Picewell Forbes
Marathon 4,408	Heather Hunt 1,907 (43.26%)	Jerome Fitzgerald 2,164 (49.09%)	Karen Davis 337 (7.65%)		Earl Deveaux
Marco City 5,112	Norris Bain 2,287 (44.74%)	Gregory Moss 2,528 (49.45%)	Tolonus Sands 284 (5.56%)	Leslie Minus (IND) 13 (0.25%)	Zhivargo Laing
Mayaguana, Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins and Long Cay 1,325	Sidney Collie 650 (49.06%)	V. Alfred Gray 672 (50.72%)	Jamarl Chea 3 (0.23%)		V. Alfred Gray
Montagu 4,750	Richard Lightbourn 2,227 (46.88%)	Frank Smith 1,999 (42.08%)	Benjamin Albury 514 (10.82%)	Graham Weatherford (IND) 10 (0.21%)	Loretta Turner
Mount Moriah 4,746	Tommy Turnquest 2,013 (42.41%)	Arnold Forbes 2,262 (47.66%)	Wayne Munroe 471 (9.92%)		Tommy Turnquest
Nassau Village 4,692	Basil Moss 1,518 (32.35%)	Dion Smith 2,308 (49.19%)	Christopher Mortimer 834 (17.77%)	Simon Smith (BCP) 32 (0.68%)	New district
North Abaco 4,130	Hubert Ingraham 2,235 (54.12%)	Renardo Curry 1,856 (44.94%)	Sonith Lockhart 39 (0.94%)		Hubert Ingraham
North Andros and Berry Islands 2,445	Desmond Bannister 1,168 (47.77%)	Perry Gomez 1,192 (48.75%)	Randy Butler 85 (3.48%)		Vincent Peet
North Eleuthera 3,520	Theo Neilly 1,787 (50.77%)	Clay Sweeting 1,686 (47.90%)	George Taylor 47 (1.34%)		Alvin Smith
Pineridge 4,637	Kwasi Thompson 1,808 (38.99%)	Michael Darville 2,635 (56.83%)	Osman Johnson 194 (4.18%)		James Thompson
Pinewood 4,419	Byron Woodside 1,763 (39.90%)	Khaalis Rolle 2,231 (50.49%)	Wellington Woods 409 (9.26%)	Elkin Sutherland (IND) 16 (0.36%)	Byron Woodside
Sea Breeze 4,556	Carl Bethel 1,897 (41.64%)	Hope Strachan 2,095 (45.98%)	Alfred Poitier 543 (11.92%)	Brenda T. Harris (BCP) 21 (0.46%)	Carl Bethel
South Beach 4,450	Monique Gomez 1,785 (40.11%)	Cleola Hamilton 2,029 (45.60%)	Wallace Rolle 619 (13.91%)	James Williams (BCP) 17 (0.38%)	Phenton Neymour
Southern Shores 4,342	Kenyatta Gibson 1,762 (40.58%)	Kendrick Dorsett 2,080 (47.90%)	Madeline Sawyer 500 (11.52%)		New district
St. Anne's 4,337	Hubert Chipman 2,348 (54.14%)	Gregory Burrows 1,532 (35.32%)	Prince Smith 457 (10.54%)		Brent Symonette
Tall Pines 4,451	Karen Butler 1,549 (34.80%)	Leslie Miller 2,516 (56.53%)	Dario Terrelli 386 (8.67%)		New district
West Grand Bahama & Bimini 5,191	Pakesia Parker 2,233 (43.02%)	Obediah Wilchcombe 2,877 (55.42%)	Rodger Rolle 81 (1.56%)		Obediah Wilchcombe
Yamacraw 4,522	Dion Foulkes 1,856 (41.04%)	Melanie Griffin 2,292 (50.69%)	Maurice Smith 374 (8.27%)		Melanie Griffin
Source: Bahamas Elections

Proportionality

The table below presents the proportionality of parliamentary seats won in the 2012 election, as measured by the Gallagher index. This election yielded an index score of 24.28, indicating a highly disproportionate outcome that strongly favoured the PLP while being significantly disadvantageous for others.

Gallagher index for the 2012 Bahamian general election
Party		% of votes	seats won	% of seats	difference	difference squared
	PLP	48.62	29	76.32	27.70	767.29
	FNM	42.09	9	23.68	(18.41)	338.93
	DNA	8.48	0	0	(8.48)	71.91
	Other	0.81	0	0	(0.81)	0.66
Total		100.00	38	100.00	(0.00)	1,178.79
Difference halved					589.395
Square root					24.28

References

1. The Bahamas General Election Results - 7 May 2012 Caribbean Elections
2. Charles, Jacqueline (8 May 2012). "Bahamas swears in new leader as ex-prime minister calls the quits". Miami Herald . Retrieved 8 May 2012.
3. Dames, Candia. "FNM and PLP in Statistical dead heat."The Guardian Business. 29 March 2012.n. pag.Web. 15 April 2012

External links

• Nassau Guardian: 2012 Election results map of the Bahamas