2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

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2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Flag of North Rhine-Westphalia.svg
  2010 13 May 2012 2017  

All 237 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia, including 56 overhang and leveling seats
119 seats needed for a majority
Turnout7,901,268 (59.6% Increase2.svg 0.3pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
  NRW-Ministerprasidentin Hannelore Kraft (SPD) (10578724733).jpg Norbert Rottgen 2012 (portrait crop).jpg Sylvia Lohrmann.jpg
Candidate Hannelore Kraft Norbert Röttgen Sylvia Löhrmann
Party SPD CDU Greens
Last election67 seats, 34.5%67 seats, 34.6%23 seats, 12.1%
Seats won996729
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 32Steady2.svg 0Increase2.svg 6
Popular vote3,049,9832,050,321884,298
Percentage39.1%26.3%11.3%
SwingIncrease2.svg 4.6ppDecrease2.svg 8.3ppDecrease2.svg 0.8pp

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Christian Lindner crop.jpg Joachim Paul.jpg Katharina Schwabedissen 2012 2 (cropped).png
Candidate Christian Lindner Joachim PaulKatharina Schwabedissen
Party FDP Pirates Left
Last election13 seats, 6.7%0 seats, 1.6%11 seats, 5.6%
Seats won22200
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 9Increase2.svg 20Decrease2.svg 11
Popular vote670,082609,176194,428
Percentage8.6%7.8%2.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg 1.9ppIncrease2.svg 6.2ppDecrease2.svg 3.1pp

2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election.svg
Results for the single-member constituencies.

Government before election

First Kraft cabinet
SPDGreen

Government after election

Second Kraft cabinet
SPDGreen

The 2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 13 May 2012 to elect the members of the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The incumbent minority government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by Minister-President Hannelore Kraft was returned with a majority and continued in office. The seat count drastically increased from 181 in the previous election to 237.

Contents

Background

Germany's largest state has often been described as a bellwether in recent years. [1] [2] The SPD governed continuously from 1966 until a CDU–FDP coalition took control in the 2005 state election. This defeat led Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to call a federal election, which he lost.

In the 2010 state election, the CDU held a 0.1% lead over the SPD, though both parties won 67 seats. The SPD and Greens emerged one seat short of a majority, while the CDU and FDP were 10 seats short. This was due to the new presence of The Left. After failed negotiations with The Left, the SPD and Greens formed a minority government with SPD leader Hannelore Kraft as Minister-President. [3] The state budget was rejected by the Landtag on 14 March 2012. [3] [4] The government expected the FDP to abstain from the vote, allowing it to pass. [5] However, the CDU, FDP, and Left all voted against the budget, and it was rejected. [4] This led to the dissolution of the Landtag and a snap election.

Campaign and issues

The SPD and Greens sought to win a majority; polls predicted they would make gains. The CDU nominated federal Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen as their lead candidate. He was criticised for refusing to state whether, if the CDU lost the election, he would continue to lead the state party or return to federal politics. Opinion polls showed that voters preferred Kraft as Minister-President by a wide margin. The CDU made tackling the state's €230 billion debt a key issue; at one point they used a giant inflatable "debt mountain" as a prop. [6]

The FDP had fallen out of six state elections since joining the federal government in 2009, but had managed to retain their seats with 8.2% of the vote in the Schleswig-Holstein state election a week before the North Rhine-Westphalia election.

The Pirate Party ran on a loose platform of Internet freedom and grassroots democracy.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2010 result
Votes (%)Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Norbert Röttgen 34.6%
67 / 181
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Hannelore Kraft 34.5%
67 / 181
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Sylvia Löhrmann 12.1%
23 / 181
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Christian Lindner 6.7%
13 / 181
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Katharina Schwabedissen 5.6%
11 / 181

Opinion polling

Party polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU SPD Grüne FDP Linke Piraten OthersLead
2012 state election 13 May 201226.339.111.38.62.57.84.312.8
INFO GmbH 3–5 May 20121,00733381154815
YouGov 27 Apr–7 May 20121,06330371263.58.537
YouGov 24 Apr–4 May 20121,05331371154936
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 30 Apr–3 May 20121,08231381163837
Infratest dimap 1–3 May 20121,0033038.511647.538.5
YouGov 20–29 Apr 20121,038313611541035
Forsa 23–27 Apr 20121,008323710531035
Emnid 23–24 Apr 20121,001323810549 ?6
Infratest dimap 17–19 Apr 20121,00131391143938
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Apr 20121,04534371143833
YouGov 5–16 Apr 20121,06432361344834
INFO GmbH 4–7 Apr 20121,0052940103311311
Infratest dimap 22–24 Mar 20121,00132401243548
Forsa 15–17 Mar 20121,00333391144636
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–15 Mar 20121,07334371324643
Infratest dimap 14 Mar 20121,00234381424534
14 Mar 2012State budget is rejected by the Landtag; snap election is called
YouGov 2–12 Mar 20121,0653333172573Tie
Infratest dimap 22–23 Feb 20121,0043535172353Tie
YouGov 27 Jan–6 Feb 20121,01831331536752
YouGov 6–16 Jan 20121,03931331735832
YouGov 14–21 Dec 20111,00531341546733
YouGov 2–12 Dec 20111,02631341546733
YouGov 28 Oct–7 Nov 20111,04230311835941
Infratest dimap 11–13 Oct 20111,00031351634744
YouGov October 20111,00030321745842
YouGov 8–15 Sep 2011982333317656Tie
Emnid 29 Jul–4 Aug 20111,0633234205542
Forsa 1–7 Jul 20111,0043233213471
Infratest dimap 29–31 Mar 20111,00034302444224
Emnid 4–10 Mar 20111,000353514556Tie
Forsa 18–28 Jan 20111,0083534174461
Emnid 19–25 Jan 2011635363615445Tie
YouGov 20–24 Jan 20111,02924.730.614.15.58.61.315.25.9
Infratest dimap 16–18 Dec 20101,0003236184554
Forsa 11–15 Oct 20101,0023135193574
Infratest dimap 6–8 Jul 20101,0013236175644
Emnid 25 Jun 2010 ?3536126741
Emnid 17–26 May 20101,0013435126761
2010 state election 9 May 201034.634.512.16.75.61.64.90.1

Seat forecast

Analysts on election.de forecast the likely results of the 128 direct mandates. These seats traditionally have been held by either the CDU or SPD, with minor parties standing little chance of winning any.

Polling firmFieldwork date CDU SPD Lead
2012 state election13 May 2012299970
election.de 12 May 2012398950
election.de 5 May 2012389052
election.de 28 Apr 2012418746
election.de 21 Apr 2012547420
election.de 14 Apr 2012398950
election.de 7 Apr 2012468236
2010 state election9 May 201067618

Minister-President polling

Polling firmFieldwork date Hannelorekraft.jpg Bundesumweltminister norbert roettgen cdu.jpg Lead
Hannelore Kraft
SPD
Norbert Röttgen
CDU
INFO GmbH 11 May 2012532231
YouGov 7 May 2012461927
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen4 May 2012632736
Infratest dimap 3 May 2012582632
Forsa 2 May 2012562531
Infratest dimap 22 Apr 2012583028
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen20 Apr 2012553223
INFO GmbH14 Apr 2012492128
Infratest dimap 25 Mar 2012572829
Forsa 21 Mar 2012562630
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen15 Mar 2012543024
Infratest dimap 14 Mar 2012572631
YouGov 14 Mar 2012422121
Infratest dimap 26 Feb 2012512922
YouGov19 Jan 2012361719

Election result

There was a major swing from the CDU to the SPD and to the Pirates, who entered their fourth state parliament in a row. The Greens stayed essentially level, while the FDP bucked the national trend, achieving a 2-point swing in their favour. This was attributed to the popular leadership of Christian Lindner. [7] Lindner was elected FDP federal leader one year later, after their historic defeat in the 2013 German federal election. The Left lost over half their voteshare and lost their seats after just two years in the Landtag.

The SPD won a landslide in the direct mandates, winning 99 seats to the CDU's 29. This led to a large number of overhang seats for the SPD and leveling seats for other parties, increasing the size of the Landtag from 181 to 237 seats.

State CDU leader Norbert Röttgen resigned, but refused to become leader of the opposition in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia, instead continuing to serve as Minister for the Environment. Because of that, in what was considered unceremonious and highly unusual move (ministers are normally given the courtesy of resigning by themselves even after scandals), Chancellor Merkel fired him under Article 64 of the German Basic Law three days after the election.

PartyConstituencyParty listTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%+/–SeatsVotes%+/–Seats
Social Democratic Party (SPD)3,290,56142.29+3.79993,049,98339.13+4.65099+32
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)2,545,30932.71–5.83292,050,32126.31–8.253867±0
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)723,5819.30–0.840884,29811.35–0.782929+6
Free Democratic Party (FDP)372,7274.79+0.090670,0828.60+1.872222+9
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)617,9267.94+7.030609,1767.82+6.262020+20
The Left (LINKE)201,6372.59–2.770194,4282.49–3.1200–11
Citizens' Movement pro NRW (Pro NRW)118,3261.52+0.1400±0
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei)58,0910.75+0.1300±0
National Democratic Party (NPD)40,0070.51–0.2000±0
Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE)1,7220.02–0.09033,7930.43+0.0200±0
Die PARTEI 6,3620.08+0.07022,9150.29+0.1700±0
Free Voters (FW)10,6000.14New017,9700.23New00New
Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG)10,6940.14–0.0400±0
Party for Labour, Environment and Family (AUF)2,7260.04+0.01010,2170.13+0.0600±0
Free Citizens Initiative/Free Voters (FBI)1,5380.02+0.0109,4960.12+0.0300±0
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)1,3360.02–0.0207,8420.10±0.0000±0
Party of Reason (Vernunft)6,3560.08New00New
From now – Alliance for Germany1,0870.01–0.0100±0
Pensioners' Party (RRP)4180.01–0.0800±0
Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo)2720.00–0.0900±0
Liberal Democrats (LD)1200.00±0.0000±0
League for All-Germany (BGD)830.00±0.0000±0
Independents 2,6050.03±0.0000±0
Total7,780,610100.001287,793,995100.00109237+56
Valid votes7,780,61098.477,793,99598.64
Invalid/blank votes120,6581.53107,2731.36
Total votes7,901,268100.007,901,268100.00
Registered voters/turnout13,262,04959.5813,262,04959.58
Source:

Sources

  1. "Merkel's austerity push rejected in bellwether state". Archived from the original on 2012-05-15.
  2. "EU leaders set for showdown on fate of euro as crisis deepens". TheGuardian.com . 14 May 2012.
  3. 1 2 "Biggest German state heads for early election". The Local . 14 March 2012. Retrieved 14 March 2012.
  4. 1 2 von Hellfeld, Matthias (15 March 2012). "Budget bungle forces snap state election". Deutsche Welle . Retrieved 15 March 2012.
  5. "North Rhine-Westphalia Faces Snap Election". Spiegel Online . 14 March 2012. Retrieved 14 March 2012.
  6. "Angela Merkel prepares for an austerity backlash as key state goes to". Independent.co.uk . 11 May 2012. Archived from the original on 2022-05-01.
  7. Kulish, Nicholas (13 May 2012). "In Rebuke to Merkel's Party, Social Democrats Win German Vote". The New York Times.

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