2028 Bavarian state election

Last updated
Next Bavarian state election
Flag of Bavaria (lozengy).svg
  2023 2028 (2028)

All 203 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including 23 overhang and leveling seats)
102 seats needed for a majority
 
Party CSU FW AfD
Last election85 seats, 37.0%37 seats, 15.8%32 seats, 14.6%

 
Party Greens SPD
Last election32 seats, 14.4%17 seats, 8.4%

Incumbent Government

Third Söder cabinet
CSUFW



Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.

Contents

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. [1] Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. [2] There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution. [3] The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.

Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise), [4] in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round. [5]

The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). In addition, 23 seats may be allocated as levelling seats or to compensate for overhang.

Backgroud

In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively. [6] Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.

Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression graphical polling. Opinion Polling Bayern 2028.svg
Local regression graphical polling.

Party polling

Polling firm [7] Fieldwork dateSample size CSU FW AfD Grüne SPD FDP Linke BSW OthersLead
Federal Parliament election 23 Feb 202537.24.319.012.011.64.25.73.12.918.2
Civey 30 Jan13 Feb 20255,007411214148114527
Civey 3–17 Jan 20255,011431214147113529
Civey 28 Nov12 Dec 20245,001421214127314528
Civey 1–15 Nov 20245,008441112118214732
Civey 11–18 Oct 20245,0014212141171428
INSA 7–14 Oct 20241,0004311181085525
GMS 11–16 Sep 20241,048421112107216930
Civey 5–12 Sep 20245,00242131512721827
Civey 9–16 Aug 20245,00242131411831828
Forsa 22 Jul2 Aug 20241,03643121311824730
Civey 11–18 Jul 20245,00442131411831828
Civey 7–14 Jun 20245,00441131413831727
European Parliament election 9 Jun 20246,324,01139.76.812.611.88.93.91.43.811.127.1
Civey 3–10 May 20245,00541141413731727
GMS 30 Apr6 May 20241,023411511137223626
Civey 4–11 Apr 20245,0024214131371128
Civey 8–15 Mar 20245,00142141314721728
Civey 9–16 Feb 20245,0014013141481126
GMS 31 Jan5 Feb 20241,018421513126213627
Infratest dimap 11–15 Jan 20241,1614013151373925
Civey 4–11 Jan 20245,0004113141481027
GMS 27 Dec2 Jan 20241,00241161413631625
Civey 8–15 Dec 20234,9994113141481027
Civey 10–17 Nov 20235,00140131314932626
2023 state election 8 Oct 202337.015.814.614.48.43.01.55.321.2


References

  1. Artikel 36 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  2. Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 23. Mai 2022 (GVBl. S. 218) §1 Nr. 9
  3. Artikel 14 (1) Bayerische Verfassung
  4. Artikel 5 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  5. Artikel 43 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
  6. "Landtagswahl in Bayern: CSU siegt in Bayern trotz schwachem Ergebnis – AfD gewinnt dazu". ZEIT ONLINE (in German). Retrieved 2025-02-14.
  7. "Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Bayern". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 2022-05-07.