2028 Bavarian state election

Next Bavarian state election

←  2023 2028 (2028)
All 180 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including any overhang and leveling seats) 91 seats needed for a majority
Party CSU FW AfD Last election 85 seats, 37.0% 37 seats, 15.8% 32 seats, 14.6%   Party Greens SPD Last election 32 seats, 14.4% 17 seats, 8.4%
Incumbent Government Third Söder cabinet CSU—FW

Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.

Electoral system

Main article: Bavarian state election system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. ^[1] Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. ^[2] There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution. ^[3] The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.

Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise), ^[4] in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round. ^[5]

The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). The number of seats may be increased if overhang seats occur. In that event, levelling seats are added in the regional constituency.

Background

In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively. ^[6] Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.

Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression graphical polling.

Party polling

Polling firm [7]	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	FW	AfD	Grüne	SPD	FDP	Linke	BP	BSW	Others	Lead
Civey	1–15 Jan2026	5,000	40	11	18	12	7	2	3	–	1	6	22
Infratest dimap	8–12 Jan2026	1,177	39	9	19	13	8	–	3	–	–	9	20
GMS	23 Dec–5 Jan2026	1,006	39	12	19	11	6	2	3	1	2	5	20
Civey	27 Nov–11 Dec2025	5,000	37	10	21	12	8	2	4	–	2	4	16
GMS	5–10 Dec2025	1,005	40	10	19	12	6	2	3	–	2	6	21
Civey	30 Oct–13 Nov2025	5,000	40	9	20	12	8	1	5	–	2	3	20
Civey	24 Sep–8 Oct2025	5,000	38	10	20	11	8	2	4	–	2	5	18
GMS	24–29 Sep2025	1,017	39	11	19	11	7	2	4	1	2	5	20
Civey	29 Aug–12 Sep2025	5,000	40	10	20	13	8	1	1	–	2	5	20
Forsa	1–10 Sep2025	1,012	37	10	19	15	8	2	5	–	1	3	18
Civey	30 Jul–14 Aug2025	5,000	41	9	20	13	8	1	1	–	2	5	21
Civey	25 Jun–10 Jul2025	5,002	37	10	22	12	7	2	1	–	3	6	15
Civey	30 May–13 Jun2025	5,001	39	9	22	12	7	2	1	–	3	5	17
Civey	25 Apr–14 May2025	5,004	39	9	19	12	8	2	2	–	4	5	20
Civey	28 Mar–11 Apr2025	5,006	39	10	18	12	8	2	2	–	4	4	21
Civey	28 Feb–14 Mar2025	5,006	41	11	15	13	8	2	2	–	4	5	26
Federal Parliament election	23 Feb2025	–	37.2	4.3	19.0	12.0	11.6	4.2	5.7	0.2	3.1	2.9	18.2
Civey	30 Jan–13 Feb2025	5,007	41	12	14	14	8	1	1	–	4	5	27
Civey	3–17 Jan2025	5,011	43	12	14	14	7	1	1	–	3	5	29
Civey	28 Nov–12 Dec2024	5,001	42	12	14	12	7	3	1	–	4	5	28
Civey	1–15 Nov2024	5,008	44	11	12	11	8	2	1	–	4	7	32
Civey	11–18 Oct2024	5,001	42	12	14	11	7	3	1	–	–	10	28
INSA	7–14 Oct2024	1,000	43	11	18	10	8	–	–	–	5	5	25
GMS	11–16 Sep2024	1,048	42	11	12	10	7	2	1	2	6	7	30
Civey	5–12 Sep2024	5,002	42	13	15	12	7	2	1	–	–	8	27
Civey	9–16 Aug2024	5,002	42	13	14	11	8	3	1	–	–	8	28
Forsa	22 Jul–2 Aug2024	1,036	43	12	13	11	8	2	–	–	4	7	30
Civey	11–18 Jul2024	5,004	42	13	14	11	8	3	1	–	–	8	28
Civey	7–14 Jun2024	5,004	41	13	14	13	8	3	1	–	–	7	27
European Parliament election	9 Jun2024	6,324,011	39.7	6.8	12.6	11.8	8.9	3.9	1.4	–	3.8	11.1	27.1
Civey	3–10 May2024	5,005	41	14	14	13	7	3	1	–	–	7	27
GMS	30 Apr–6 May2024	1,023	41	15	11	13	7	2	2	1	3	5	26
Civey	4–11 Apr2024	5,002	42	14	13	13	7	3	1	–	–	7	28
Civey	8–15 Mar2024	5,001	42	14	13	14	7	2	1	–	–	7	28
Civey	9–16 Feb2024	5,001	40	13	14	14	8	3	1	–	–	7	26
GMS	31 Jan–5 Feb2024	1,018	42	15	13	12	6	2	1	1	3	5	27
Infratest dimap	11–15 Jan2024	1,161	40	13	15	13	7	3	–	–	–	9	25
Civey	4–11 Jan2024	5,000	41	13	14	14	8	3	2	–	–	5	27
GMS	27 Dec–2 Jan2024	1,002	41	16	14	13	6	3	1	1	–	5	25
Civey	8–15 Dec2023	4,999	41	13	14	14	8	3	2	–	–	5	27
Civey	10–17 Nov2023	5,001	40	13	13	14	9	3	2	–	–	6	26
2023 state election	8 Oct2023	–	37.0	15.8	14.6	14.4	8.4	3.0	1.5	0.9	–	4.2	21.2

References

1. Artikel 36 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
2. Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 23. Mai 2022 (GVBl. S. 218) §1 Nr. 9
3. Artikel 14 (1) Bayerische Verfassung
4. Artikel 5 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
5. Artikel 43 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
6. "Landtagswahl in Bayern: CSU siegt in Bayern trotz schwachem Ergebnis – AfD gewinnt dazu". ZEIT ONLINE (in German). Retrieved 2025-02-14.
7. "Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Bayern". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 2022-05-07.