2028 Bavarian state election

Next Bavarian state election

←  2023 2028 (2028)
All 203 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including 23 overhang and leveling seats) 102 seats needed for a majority
Party CSU FW AfD Last election 85 seats, 37.0% 37 seats, 15.8% 32 seats, 14.6%   Party Greens SPD Last election 32 seats, 14.4% 17 seats, 8.4%
Incumbent Government Third Söder cabinet CSU—FW

Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. ^[1] Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. ^[2] There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution. ^[3] The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.

Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise), ^[4] in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round. ^[5]

The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). In addition, 23 seats may be allocated as levelling seats or to compensate for overhang.

Backgroud

In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively. ^[6] Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.

Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression graphical polling.

Party polling

Polling firm [7]	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	FW	AfD	Grüne	SPD	FDP	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
Federal Parliament election	23 Feb 2025	–	37.2	4.3	19.0	12.0	11.6	4.2	5.7	3.1	2.9	18.2
Civey	30 Jan – 13 Feb 2025	5,007	41	12	14	14	8	1	1	4	5	27
Civey	3–17 Jan 2025	5,011	43	12	14	14	7	1	1	3	5	29
Civey	28 Nov – 12 Dec 2024	5,001	42	12	14	12	7	3	1	4	5	28
Civey	1–15 Nov 2024	5,008	44	11	12	11	8	2	1	4	7	32
Civey	11–18 Oct 2024	5,001	42	12	14	11	7	–	–	–	14	28
INSA	7–14 Oct 2024	1,000	43	11	18	10	8	–	–	5	5	25
GMS	11–16 Sep 2024	1,048	42	11	12	10	7	2	1	6	9	30
Civey	5–12 Sep 2024	5,002	42	13	15	12	7	2	1	–	8	27
Civey	9–16 Aug 2024	5,002	42	13	14	11	8	3	1	–	8	28
Forsa	22 Jul – 2 Aug 2024	1,036	43	12	13	11	8	2	–	4	7	30
Civey	11–18 Jul 2024	5,004	42	13	14	11	8	3	1	–	8	28
Civey	7–14 Jun 2024	5,004	41	13	14	13	8	3	1	–	7	27
European Parliament election	9 Jun 2024	6,324,011	39.7	6.8	12.6	11.8	8.9	3.9	1.4	3.8	11.1	27.1
Civey	3–10 May 2024	5,005	41	14	14	13	7	3	1	–	7	27
GMS	30 Apr – 6 May 2024	1,023	41	15	11	13	7	2	2	3	6	26
Civey	4–11 Apr 2024	5,002	42	14	13	13	7	–	–	–	11	28
Civey	8–15 Mar 2024	5,001	42	14	13	14	7	2	1	–	7	28
Civey	9–16 Feb 2024	5,001	40	13	14	14	8	–	–	–	11	26
GMS	31 Jan – 5 Feb 2024	1,018	42	15	13	12	6	2	1	3	6	27
Infratest dimap	11–15 Jan 2024	1,161	40	13	15	13	7	3	–	–	9	25
Civey	4–11 Jan 2024	5,000	41	13	14	14	8	–	–	–	10	27
GMS	27 Dec – 2 Jan 2024	1,002	41	16	14	13	6	3	1	–	6	25
Civey	8–15 Dec 2023	4,999	41	13	14	14	8	–	–	–	10	27
Civey	10–17 Nov 2023	5,001	40	13	13	14	9	3	2	–	6	26
2023 state election	8 Oct 2023	–	37.0	15.8	14.6	14.4	8.4	3.0	1.5	–	5.3	21.2

References

1. Artikel 36 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
2. Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 23. Mai 2022 (GVBl. S. 218) §1 Nr. 9
3. Artikel 14 (1) Bayerische Verfassung
4. Artikel 5 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
5. Artikel 43 Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
6. "Landtagswahl in Bayern: CSU siegt in Bayern trotz schwachem Ergebnis – AfD gewinnt dazu". ZEIT ONLINE (in German). Retrieved 2025-02-14.
7. "Sonntagsfrage zur Landtagswahl in Bayern". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 2022-05-07.