Adam Scaife

Last updated

Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office. [1] He is also a professor at Exeter University. [2] Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 300 peer reviewed studies [3] on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science [4] [5] and academic books [6] on meteorology.

Contents

Career

Scaife was born in Yorkshire in the UK and studied Natural Sciences (Physics) at Cambridge University, Environmental Science at Surrey University and completed a PhD in Meteorology at Reading University (academic advisor Prof Ian N James). He joined the Met Office in 1992, and worked on climate dynamics while developing improved computer models of the atmosphere. [7] [8] [9] [10] He later also joined Exeter University as Professor of Applied Maths in 2017.

Many of his studies show how predictable factors [11] [12] [13] [14] affect weather from months to years ahead. Since 2003 he has led teams of scientists in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, working on climate modeling and long range weather prediction. He now leads research and production of monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions at the Met Office. [15] [16] Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting [17] . [18] They predicted the first year that global warming would exceed 1.5 degrees [19] and have uncovered the paradox that for certain aspects of climate, current computer models are better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves. [20] Scaife's recent research demonstrates a link between year to year climate predictions and subtle changes in the rotation rate of the Earth and hence the length of day. [21] This has also led to the discovery that El Nino and La Nina events affect mid latitude weather patterns a whole year later. [22]

Scaife was co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation's Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction [23] and served as a member of the scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme's core project on the stratosphere and its role in climate. [24] He is a fellow of the Institute of Physics [25] and the Royal Meteorological Society [26] and co-led the World Meteorological Organisation's grand challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction. [27] Scaife is co-chair of the Royal Meteorological Society's special interest group on climate dynamics [28] and is often involved in the public communication of meteorology and climate science [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]

Awards

References

  1. ↑ "Prof. Adam Scaife". Met Office. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  2. ↑ "Prof Adam Scaife - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter". Emps.exeter.ac.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  3. ↑ "Google Scholar - Adam Scaife".
  4. ↑ "30s Meteorology".
  5. ↑ "The Little Book of Weather".
  6. ↑ "Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events".
  7. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Swinbank, Richard (2002). "Impact of a Spectral Gravity Wave Parameterization on the Stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 59 (9): 1473–1489.
  8. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Stainforth, David; Norton, Warwick; Austin, John (2000). "Realistic Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a simulation of the global climate". Geophysical Research Letters. 27 (21): 3481–3484. doi:10.1029/2000GL011625.
  9. ↑ Butchart, Neal; Scaife, Adam (2000). "Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate". Nature. 410: 799–802. doi:10.1038/35071047.
  10. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Copsey, Dan; Gordon, Chris; Harris, Chris; Hinton, Tim; Keeley, Sarah; O'Neill, Alan; Roberts, Malcolm; Williams, Keith (2011). "Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model". Geophysical Research Letters. 38: L23703. doi: 10.1029/2011GL049573 .
  11. ↑ Nature Geoscience. "Angular Momentum, Length of Day and Climate Predictions". Nature. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  12. ↑ Science Media Centre. "El Nino". Science Media Centre. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  13. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Ineson, Sarah; Knight, Jeff R.; Gray, Lesley; Kodera, Kunihiko; Smith, Doug M. (2013). "A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability". Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (2): 434–439. Bibcode:2013GeoRL..40..434S. doi: 10.1002/grl.50099 .
  14. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Athanassiadou, Maria; Andrews, Martin; Arribas, Alberto; Baldwin, Mark; Dunstone, Nick; Knight, Jeff; MacLachlan, Craig; Manzini, Elisa; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Smith, Doug; Stockdale, Tim; Williams, Andrew (2014). "Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales". Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (5): 1752–1758. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.1752S. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160. hdl: 10871/19674 .
  15. ↑ "Monthly to Decadal Prediction". Met Office. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  16. ↑ Camp, J.; Roberts, M.; MacLachlan, C.; Wallace, E.; Hermanson, L.; Brookshaw, A.; Arribas, A.; Scaife, A. A. (2015). "Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 141 (691): 2206–2219. Bibcode:2015QJRMS.141.2206C. doi: 10.1002/qj.2516 .
  17. ↑ Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E.; Brookshaw, A.; Clark, R. T.; Dunstone, N.; Eade, R.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Knight, J. R.; Lea, D. J.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A.; Martin, M.; Peterson, A. K.; Smith, D.; Vellinga, M.; Wallace, E.; Waters, J.; Williams, A. (2014). "Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (7): 2514–2519. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.2514S. doi:10.1002/2014GL059637. hdl: 10871/34601 .
  18. ↑ "Seasonal Forecasts Using AI". Nature.
  19. ↑ "World Set to Break 1.5 degrees". BBC.
  20. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug (2018). "A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Science". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 1. doi: 10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4 .
  21. ↑ Scaife, Adam A. (2022). "Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day". Nature Geoscience. 15. doi: 10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7 . hdl: 10871/131742 .
  22. ↑ Scaife, Adam A. (2024). "ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation one year later". Science. doi:10.1126/science.adk4671.
  23. ↑ "About WGSIP". Wcrp-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  24. ↑ SPARC (6 April 2010). "Home :: SPARC". Sparc-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  25. ↑ "Institute of Physics". IOP.org. Retrieved 28 June 2019.
  26. ↑ "Royal Meteorological Society". Rmets.org. Archived from the original on 2 June 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  27. ↑ Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam. "Near-term Climate Prediction".
  28. ↑ "Climate Dynamics Group" . Retrieved 5 September 2025.
  29. ↑ Nicola Davis (11 February 2014). "Why has it rained so much in the UK – and is it climate change? | Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  30. ↑ Devlin, Hannah (3 May 2015). "Climate Science Myths". The Guardian. Guardian Newspaper. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  31. ↑ "Horizon: Season 50, Episode 14 : What's Wrong with Our Weather?". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  32. ↑ Briggs, Helen (21 May 2015). "El Nino could 'disrupt food markets' - BBC News". BBC News. Bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  33. ↑ "Horizon: Season 48, Episode 13 : Global Weirding (27 March 2012)". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  34. ↑ "Slowdown in Global Warming". Met Office. 19 September 2017. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  35. ↑ McGrath, Matt (6 February 2019). "Warmest Decade". BBC News.
  36. ↑ "El Nino affects weather 1 year later". Met Office. 4 October 2024.
  37. ↑ "Distinguished Ogura Lecture 2025".
  38. ↑ "Edward Appleton Medal 2020".
  39. ↑ "The Buchan Prize 2019".
  40. ↑ "The Copernicus Medal".
  41. ↑ "Met Office Blog".
  42. ↑ "Scaife Receives 2016 Atmospheric Sciences Ascent Award - Honors Program".
  43. ↑ "Adrian Gill Prize". Rmets.org.
  44. ↑ "LG Groves Memorial Prize".
  45. ↑ "Lloyd's Science of Risk : 2011 Conference and Winners" (PDF). Lloyds.com.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.