Adam Scaife

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Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office. [1] He is also a professor at Exeter University. [2] Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 250 peer reviewed studies [3] on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science [4] [5] and academic books [6] on meteorology.

Contents

Career

Scaife studied Natural Sciences (Physics) at Cambridge University (1988–1991), Environmental Science at Surrey University (1991–1992) and was awarded a PhD in Meteorology from Reading University (1999, academic advisor Prof Ian N James). He joined the Met Office in 1992 where he worked on climate dynamics and the development of improved computer models of the climate. [7] [8] [9] [10] He also joined Exeter University as Professor in Applied Maths in 2017.

Many of his studies show how predictable factors [11] [12] [13] [14] affect weather from months to decades ahead. Since 2003 he has led teams of scientists in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, working on climate modeling and long range weather prediction. He now leads research and production of monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions at the Met Office. [15] [16] Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting [17] and have uncovered the paradox that current climate models are better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves. [18] Scaife's recent research demonstrates a link between year to year climate predictions, subtle changes in the rotation rate of the Earth and hence the length of day. [19]

Scaife was co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation's Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction [20] and served as a member of the scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme's core project on the stratosphere and its role in climate. [21] He is a fellow of the Institute of Physics [22] and the Royal Meteorological Society [23] and co-led the World Meteorological Organisation's grand challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction. [24] Scaife has also served as member of the Royal Meteorological Society climate communications group, [25] [26] regularly comments on extreme climate events, [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] and is often involved in communicating climate science to the public . [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38]

Awards

Related Research Articles

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found. At the 30 mb level, with regards to monthly mean zonal winds, the strongest recorded easterly was 29.55 m/s in November 2005, while the strongest recorded westerly was only 15.62 m/s in June 1995.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins over the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex, commonly measured at 60 ° latitude at the 10 hPa level. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere (NH), and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere (SH). In the SH, SSW accompanied by a reversal of the vortex westerly was observed once during the period 1979–2024; this was in September 2002. Stratospheric warming in September 2019 was comparable to or even greater than that of 2002, but the wind reversal did not occur.

The Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal is the highest award for atmospheric science of the American Meteorological Society. It is presented to individual scientists, who receive a medal. Named in honor of meteorology and oceanography pioneer Carl-Gustaf Rossby, who was also its second (1953) recipient.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</span> Climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Met Office</span> United Kingdoms national weather service

The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather and climate service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and is led by CEO Penelope Endersby, who took on the role as Chief Executive in December 2018 and is the first woman to do so. The Met Office makes meteorological predictions across all timescales from weather forecasts to climate change.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic.

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) was a ten-year study (1985–1994) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), aimed specifically at the prediction of climate phenomena on time scales of months to years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Numerical weather prediction</span> Weather prediction using mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.

Tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting is the process of predicting the number of tropical cyclones in one of the world's seven tropical cyclone basins during a particular tropical cyclone season. In the north Atlantic Ocean, one of the most widely publicized annual predictions comes from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. These reports are written by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.

Teleconnection in atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances. The most emblematic teleconnection is that linking sea-level pressure at Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation. Another well-known teleconnection links the sea-level pressure over Iceland with the one over the Azores, traditionally defining the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Aksel C. Wiin-Nielsen was a Danish professor of meteorology at University of Copenhagen, University of Michigan, Director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jagadish Shukla</span> Indian meteorologist

Jagadish Shukla is an Indian meteorologist and Distinguished University Professor at George Mason University in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global Energy and Water Exchanges</span>

The Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project is an international research project and a core project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eugenia Kalnay</span> Argentine meteorologist (1942–2024)

Eugenia Enriqueta Kalnay was an Argentine meteorologist and a Distinguished University Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, which is part of the University of Maryland College of Computer, Mathematical, and Natural Sciences at the University of Maryland, College Park in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tim Palmer (physicist)</span> British meteorologist

Timothy Noel Palmer is a mathematical physicist by training. He has spent most of his career working on the dynamics and predictability of weather and climate. Among various research achievements, he pioneered the development of probabilistic ensemble forecasting techniques for weather and climate prediction. These techniques are now standard in operational weather and climate prediction around the world, and are central for reliable decision making for many commercial and humanitarian applications.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tuvalu Meteorological Service</span>

The Tuvalu Meteorological Service (TMS) is the principal meteorological observatory of Tuvalu and is responsible for providing weather services to the islands of Tuvalu. A meteorological office was established on Funafuti at the time the islands of Tuvalu were administered as parts of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands colony of the United Kingdom. The meteorological office is now an agency of the government of Tuvalu.

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. The NAEFS combines the Canadian MSC and the US NWS global ensemble prediction systems, improving probabilistic operational guidance over what can be built from any individual country's ensemble. Model guidance from the NAEFS is incorporated into the forecasts of the respective national agencies.

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The Jule G. Charney Award is the American Meteorological Society's award granted to "individuals in recognition of highly significant research or development achievement in the atmospheric or hydrologic sciences". The prize was originally known as the Second Half Century Award, and first awarded to mark to fiftieth anniversary of the society.

Antje Weisheimer is a German climate scientist researching at the University of Oxford, UK, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.

References

  1. ↑ "Prof. Adam Scaife". Met Office. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  2. ↑ "Prof Adam Scaife - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter". Emps.exeter.ac.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  3. ↑ "Google Scholar - Adam Scaife".
  4. ↑ "30s Meteorology".
  5. ↑ "The Little Book of Weather".
  6. ↑ "Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events".
  7. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Swinbank, Richard (2002). "Impact of a Spectral Gravity Wave Parameterization on the Stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 59 (9): 1473–1489.
  8. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Stainforth, David; Norton, Warwick; Austin, John (2000). "Realistic Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a simulation of the global climate". Geophysical Research Letters. 27 (21): 3481–3484. doi:10.1029/2000GL011625.
  9. ↑ Butchart, Neal; Scaife, Adam (2000). "Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate". Nature. 410: 799–802. doi:10.1038/35071047.
  10. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Copsey, Dan; Gordon, Chris; Harris, Chris; Hinton, Tim; Keeley, Sarah; O'Neill, Alan; Roberts, Malcolm; Williams, Keith (2011). "Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model". Geophysical Research Letters. 38: L23703. doi: 10.1029/2011GL049573 .
  11. ↑ Nature Geoscience. "Angular Momentum, Length of Day and Climate Predictions". Nature. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  12. ↑ Science Media Centre. "El Nino". Science Media Centre. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  13. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Ineson, Sarah; Knight, Jeff R.; Gray, Lesley; Kodera, Kunihiko; Smith, Doug M. (2013). "A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability". Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (2): 434–439. Bibcode:2013GeoRL..40..434S. doi: 10.1002/grl.50099 .
  14. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Athanassiadou, Maria; Andrews, Martin; Arribas, Alberto; Baldwin, Mark; Dunstone, Nick; Knight, Jeff; MacLachlan, Craig; Manzini, Elisa; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Smith, Doug; Stockdale, Tim; Williams, Andrew (2014). "Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales". Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (5): 1752–1758. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.1752S. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160. hdl: 10871/19674 .
  15. ↑ "Monthly to Decadal Prediction". Met Office. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  16. ↑ Camp, J.; Roberts, M.; MacLachlan, C.; Wallace, E.; Hermanson, L.; Brookshaw, A.; Arribas, A.; Scaife, A. A. (2015). "Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 141 (691): 2206–2219. Bibcode:2015QJRMS.141.2206C. doi: 10.1002/qj.2516 .
  17. ↑ Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E.; Brookshaw, A.; Clark, R. T.; Dunstone, N.; Eade, R.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Knight, J. R.; Lea, D. J.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A.; Martin, M.; Peterson, A. K.; Smith, D.; Vellinga, M.; Wallace, E.; Waters, J.; Williams, A. (2014). "Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (7): 2514–2519. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.2514S. doi:10.1002/2014GL059637. hdl: 10871/34601 .
  18. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug (2018). "A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Science". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 1. doi: 10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4 .
  19. ↑ Scaife, Adam A. (2022). "Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day". Nature Geoscience. 15. doi: 10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7 .
  20. ↑ "About WGSIP". Wcrp-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  21. ↑ SPARC (6 April 2010). "Home :: SPARC". Sparc-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  22. ↑ "Institute of Physics". IOP.org. Retrieved 28 June 2019.
  23. ↑ "Royal Meteorological Society". Rmets.org. Archived from the original on 2 June 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  24. ↑ Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam. "Near-term Climate Prediction".
  25. ↑ "El Nino-Southern Oscillation". Rmets.org. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  26. ↑ "Solar Variability". Rmets.org. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  27. ↑ "2016 Set to be Hottest Year on Record". Telegraph Newspaper. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  28. ↑ "El Niño is back in town". Geographical. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  29. ↑ Nicola Davis (11 February 2014). "Why has it rained so much in the UK – and is it climate change? | Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  30. ↑ "December 2015 record weather in the UK?". Met office. 31 December 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  31. ↑ McGrath, Matt (6 February 2019). "Warmest Decade". BBC News.
  32. ↑ Devlin, Hannah (3 May 2015). "Climate Science Myths". The Guardian. Guardian Newspaper. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  33. ↑ "Horizon: Season 50, Episode 14 : What's Wrong with Our Weather?". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  34. ↑ Briggs, Helen (21 May 2015). "El Nino could 'disrupt food markets' - BBC News". BBC News. Bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  35. ↑ "Horizon: Season 48, Episode 13 : Global Weirding (27 March 2012)". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  36. ↑ "Slowdown in Global Warming". Met Office. 19 September 2017. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  37. ↑ "El Nino explainer". Royal Meteorological Society. 8 June 2018. Retrieved 7 November 2019.
  38. ↑ "Predictability Beyond the Weather Forecast". Manchester Literary and Scientific Society. 11 December 2018. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  39. ↑ "Edward Appleton Medal 2020".
  40. ↑ "The Buchan Prize 2019".
  41. ↑ "The Copernicus Medal".
  42. ↑ "Met Office Blog".
  43. ↑ "Scaife Receives 2016 Atmospheric Sciences Ascent Award - Honors Program".
  44. ↑ "Adrian Gill Prize". Rmets.org.
  45. ↑ "LG Groves Memorial Prize".
  46. ↑ "Lloyd's Science of Risk : 2011 Conference and Winners" (PDF). Lloyds.com.
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