Adam Scaife

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Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office. [1] He is also a professor at Exeter University. [2] Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 250 peer reviewed studies [3] on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science [4] and academic books [5] on meteorology.

Contents

Career

Scaife studied Natural Sciences (Physics) at Cambridge University (1988-1991), Environmental Science at Surrey University (1991-1992) and was awarded a PhD in Meteorology from Reading University (1999). He joined the Met Office in 1992 where he worked on climate dynamics and the development of improved computer models of the climate. [6] [7] [8] [9] He also joined Exeter University as Professor in Applied Maths in 2017.

Many of his studies show how predictable factors [10] [11] [12] [13] affect weather from months to decades ahead. Since 2003 he has led teams of scientists in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, working on climate modeling and long range weather prediction. He now leads research and production of monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions at the Met Office. [14] [15] Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting [16] and have uncovered a signal to noise paradox that makes current climate models better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves. [17] Scaife's recent research demonstrates a link between year to year climate predictions, subtle changes in the rotation rate of the Earth and hence the length of day.

Scaife was co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation's Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction [18] and served as a member of the scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme's core project on the stratosphere and its role in climate. [19] He is a fellow of the Institute of Physics [20] and the Royal Meteorological Society [21] and co-led the World Meteorological Organisation's grand challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction. [22] Scaife is also member of the Royal Meteorological Society climate communications group, [23] [24] regularly comments on extreme climate events, [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] and is often involved in communicating climate science to the public . [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]

Awards

Related Research Articles

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found. At the 30 mb level, with regards to monthly mean zonal winds, the strongest recorded easterly was 29.55 m/s in November 2005, while the strongest recorded westerly was only 15.62 m/s in June 1995.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins over the course of a few days. The warming is preceded by a slowing then reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex. SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere, and about once every 20-30 years in the southern hemisphere. Only two southern SSWs have been observed.

The Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal is the highest award for atmospheric science of the American Meteorological Society. It is presented to individual scientists, who receive a medal. Named in honor of meteorology and oceanography pioneer Carl-Gustaf Rossby, who was also its second (1953) recipient.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Met Office</span> United Kingdoms national weather service

The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and is led by CEO Penelope Endersby, who took on the role as Chief Executive in December 2018 and is the first woman to do so. The Met Office makes meteorological predictions across all timescales from weather forecasts to climate change.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Numerical weather prediction</span> Weather prediction using mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Edward Norton Lorenz</span> American mathematician

Edward Norton Lorenz was an American mathematician and meteorologist who established the theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology. He is best known as the founder of modern chaos theory, a branch of mathematics focusing on the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

Mark A. Cane is an American climate scientist. He obtained his PhD at MIT in 1975. He is currently the G. Unger Vetlesen Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences at Columbia University and the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory. He actively pursues several research and teaching initiatives, and supports the Columbia climate kids corner. As of November 11, 2015, his publications have been cited over 22,600 times, and he has an h-index of 75.

Tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting is the process of predicting the number of tropical cyclones in one of the world's seven tropical cyclone basins during a particular tropical cyclone season. In the north Atlantic Ocean, one of the most widely publicized annual predictions comes from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. These reports are written by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global Energy and Water Exchanges</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eugenia Kalnay</span> Argentine meteorologist

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tim Palmer (physicist)</span> British meteorologist

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Julia Slingo</span> British meteorologist

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tuvalu Meteorological Service</span>

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References

  1. ↑ "Prof. Adam Scaife". Met Office. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  2. ↑ "Prof Adam Scaife - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter". Emps.exeter.ac.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  3. ↑ "Google Scholar - Adam Scaife".
  4. ↑ "30s Meteorology".
  5. ↑ "Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events".
  6. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Swinbank, Richard (2002). "Impact of a Spectral Gravity Wave Parameterization on the Stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 59 (9): 1473–1489.
  7. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Butchart, Neal; Warner, Christopher; Stainforth, David; Norton, Warwick; Austin, John (2000). "Realistic Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a simulation of the global climate". Geophysical Research Letters. 27 (21): 3481–3484. doi:10.1029/2000GL011625.
  8. ↑ Butchart, Neal; Scaife, Adam (2000). "Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate". Nature. 410: 799–802. doi:10.1038/35071047.
  9. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Copsey, Dan; Gordon, Chris; Harris, Chris; Hinton, Tim; Keeley, Sarah; O'Neill, Alan; Roberts, Malcolm; Williams, Keith (2011). "Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model". Geophysical Research Letters. 38: L23703. doi: 10.1029/2011GL049573 .
  10. ↑ Nature Geoscience. "Angular Momentum, Length of Day and Climate Predictions". Nature. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  11. ↑ Science Media Centre. "El Nino". Science Media Centre. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  12. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Ineson, Sarah; Knight, Jeff R.; Gray, Lesley; Kodera, Kunihiko; Smith, Doug M. (2013). "A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability". Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (2): 434–439. Bibcode:2013GeoRL..40..434S. doi: 10.1002/grl.50099 .
  13. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Athanassiadou, Maria; Andrews, Martin; Arribas, Alberto; Baldwin, Mark; Dunstone, Nick; Knight, Jeff; MacLachlan, Craig; Manzini, Elisa; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Smith, Doug; Stockdale, Tim; Williams, Andrew (2014). "Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales". Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (5): 1752–1758. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.1752S. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160. hdl: 10871/19674 .
  14. ↑ "Monthly to Decadal Prediction". Met Office. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  15. ↑ Camp, J.; Roberts, M.; MacLachlan, C.; Wallace, E.; Hermanson, L.; Brookshaw, A.; Arribas, A.; Scaife, A. A. (2015). "Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 141 (691): 2206–2219. Bibcode:2015QJRMS.141.2206C. doi: 10.1002/qj.2516 .
  16. ↑ Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E.; Brookshaw, A.; Clark, R. T.; Dunstone, N.; Eade, R.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Knight, J. R.; Lea, D. J.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A.; Martin, M.; Peterson, A. K.; Smith, D.; Vellinga, M.; Wallace, E.; Waters, J.; Williams, A. (2014). "Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (7): 2514–2519. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.2514S. doi:10.1002/2014GL059637. hdl: 10871/34601 .
  17. ↑ Scaife, Adam A.; Smith, Doug (2018). "A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Science". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 1. doi: 10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4 .
  18. ↑ "About WGSIP". Wcrp-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  19. ↑ SPARC (6 April 2010). "Home :: SPARC". Sparc-climate.org. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  20. ↑ "Institute of Physics". IOP.org. Retrieved 28 June 2019.
  21. ↑ "Royal Meteorological Society". Rmets.org. Archived from the original on 2 June 2019. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  22. ↑ Hall, Isabel. "Near-term Climate Prediction". www.wcrp-climate.org.
  23. ↑ "El Nino-Southern Oscillation". Rmets.org. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  24. ↑ "Solar Variability". Rmets.org. Retrieved 7 July 2019.
  25. ↑ "2016 Set to be Hottest Year on Record". Telegraph Newspaper. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  26. ↑ "El Niño is back in town". Geographical. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  27. ↑ Nicola Davis (11 February 2014). "Why has it rained so much in the UK – and is it climate change? | Environment". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  28. ↑ "December 2015 record weather in the UK?". Met office. 31 December 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  29. ↑ McGrath, Matt (6 February 2019). "Warmest Decade". BBC News.
  30. ↑ Devlin, Hannah (3 May 2015). "Climate Science Myths". The Guardian. Guardian Newspaper. Retrieved 20 December 2015.
  31. ↑ "Horizon: Season 50, Episode 14 : What's Wrong with Our Weather?". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  32. ↑ Briggs, Helen (21 May 2015). "El Nino could 'disrupt food markets' - BBC News". BBC News. Bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  33. ↑ "Horizon: Season 48, Episode 13 : Global Weirding (27 March 2012)". IMDb.com. Retrieved 16 October 2015.
  34. ↑ "Slowdown in Global Warming". Met Office. 19 September 2017. Retrieved 11 January 2018.
  35. ↑ "El Nino explainer". Royal Meteorological Society. 8 June 2018. Retrieved 7 November 2019.
  36. ↑ "Predictability Beyond the Weather Forecast". Manchester Literary and Scientific Society. 11 December 2018. Retrieved 1 July 2020.
  37. ↑ "Edward Appleton Medal 2020".
  38. ↑ "The Buchan Prize 2019".
  39. ↑ "The Copernicus Medal".
  40. ↑ "Met Office Blog".
  41. ↑ "Scaife Receives 2016 Atmospheric Sciences Ascent Award - Honors Program".
  42. ↑ "Adrian Gill Prize". Rmets.org.
  43. ↑ "LG Groves Memorial Prize".
  44. ↑ "Lloyd's Science of Risk : 2011 Conference and Winners" (PDF). Lloyds.com.
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