Author | George Akerlof and Robert Shiller |
---|---|
Language | English |
Subject | Economics |
Publisher | Princeton University Press |
Publication date | 2009 |
Publication place | United States |
Media type | Print, e-book |
ISBN | 978-069114233-3 |
OCLC | 276340712 |
330.12/2019 22 | |
LC Class | HB74.P8 A494 2009 |
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism (2009) is a book by economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller written to promote the understanding of the role played by emotions in influencing economic decision making. According to the authors, economists have tended to de-emphasize the importance of emotional factors, as the effects of emotions are difficult to model and quantify. The book asserts that a variety of otherwise puzzling questions can be answered once one allows for the effect that emotional drives, or "animal spirits," have on economic factors.
Akerlof and Shiller began writing the book in 2003. While finishing the work after the 2007–2008 financial crisis the authors set themselves the additional aim of promoting a much more aggressive US government intervention to alleviate the crises than has been seen as of February 2009. They repeatedly stress the need for decisive action targeted at restoring credit flows, and that the overall stimulus from the government needs to be much larger than would otherwise be the case due to very low levels of confidence about short and medium term economic prospects.
The Preface recalls economist John Maynard Keynes's use of the phrase "animal spirits". Keynes (1883-1946) used "animal spirits" to describe the psychological forces that partly explain why the economy does not behave in the manner predicted by classical economics. Developed from the 1700s, classical economics proposed economic actors to behave as unemotional rational beings. The authors assert that the Keynesian Revolution of the mid-20th century was flawed as Keynes-influenced economists progressively disregarded the importance of animal spirits to accommodate the views of economists who preferred the simpler classical or neo-classical system.
The preface goes on to describe how Keynes' ideas suggest the economy will function best with a moderately high level of government intervention, which they compare to a happy home where children thrive with parents that are neither too authoritarian (as in a Marxist economy) nor too permissive (as in a neoliberal economy). The authors state that recent research now supports the concept of animal spirits much more robustly than Keynes was able to, and they express the hope that fellow economists can be convinced of this, thus reducing the internecine disputes that prevent their discipline from providing the clear support that politicians need for the aggressive action required to fix the 2008–2009 economic crises.
The five key animal spirits are treated here, each assigned their own chapter.
Chapter 1 the authors discuss confidence, which they say is the most important animal spirit to know about if one wishes to understand the economy.
Chapter 2 is about the desire for fairness, an emotional drive that can cause people to make decisions that aren't in their economic best interests.
Chapter 3 discusses corruption and bad faith, and how growing awareness of these practices can contribute to a recession, in addition to the direct harm the practices cause themselves.
Chapter 4 presents evidence that, in contrast to monetarist theory, many people are at least partially under the money illusion, the tendency for people to ignore the effects of inflation. Workers for example will forgo a pay rise even when prices are rising, if they know that their firm is facing challenging conditions—but they are much less willing to accept a pay cut even when prices are falling.
Chapter 5 is about the importance of stories in determining behaviour. Such as the repeatedly told story that house prices will always rise, which caused many additional people to invest in housing following the dot com bust of 2000.
Here the authors discuss eight important questions about the economy, which they assert can only be satisfactorily answered by a theory that takes animal spirits into account. Each question has its own chapter.
Chapter 6 is about why recessions happen. The authors assert that the business cycle can be explained by rising confidence in the upswing eventually leading investors to make rash decisions and ultimately encouraging corruption, until eventually panic appears and confidence evaporates, triggering a recession. There is a discussion about feedback loops between animal spirits and real returns available, which help explain the intensity of both the up and down swing of the cycle.
Chapter 7 discusses why animal spirits make central banks a necessity, and there is a post script about how they can intervene to help with the current crises.
Chapter 8 tackles the reasons for unemployment, which the authors say is partly due to animal spirits such as concerns for fairness and the money illusion.
Chapter 9 is about why there is a trade off between unemployment and inflation. The authors show how effects of animal spirits refutes the monetarist theory that there is a natural rate of employment which it is not desirable to exceed.
Chapter 10 is about why people don't consider the future rationally in their decisions about savings.
Chapter 11 presents an explanation for why asset prices and investment flows are so volatile.
Chapter 12 discusses why real estate markets go through cycles, with periods of often rapid price increase interspaced by falls.
Chapter 13 suggests that animal spirits can be used to explain the persistence of poverty among ethnic minorities, describing how working class minorities have different stories about how the world works and their place in it, compared to working class white people. The authors argue that the effects of animal spirits make a strong case for affirmative action.
Chapter 14 is a conclusion where the authors state that the cumulative evidence they have presented in the preceding chapters overwhelmingly shows that the neo classical view of the economy, which allows little or no role for animal spirits, is unreliable. They state that an effective response to the current economic crises must take into account the effects of animal spirits.
Reviewing the book for the Financial Times , Clive Crook write "it is a fine book at exactly the right time.... Animal Spirits carries its ambition lightly—but is ambitious nonetheless. Economists will see it as a kind of manifesto." Andrew Rosenblum from The New York Observer says "Animal Spirits is most compelling when the authors summon all the key behavioral patterns to explain vast, complex phenomena such as the Great Depression.... Animal Spirits...is aimed squarely at the general reader, and rightly so: Macroeconomics is now everybody's business—the banks are playing with our money." [1]
An exception to the numerous glowing reviews the book received was a lengthy critique published in The New Republic by the Judge Richard Posner. [2] The authors responded to Posner's criticisms in an article published a few weeks later in the same periodical. [3] And, on the same day and in the same periodical, Posner replied to the authors' response. [4]
Animal Spirits was shortlisted for the 2009 Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award.
The book has been translated into more than 20 languages including German, [5] Chinese, [6] Dutch, [7] Persian, [8] Greek, Italian, Spanish, [9] and French. [10]
Keynesian economics are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand strongly influences economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy. It is influenced by a host of factors that sometimes behave erratically and impact production, employment, and inflation.
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, was an English economist and philosopher whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. Originally trained in mathematics, he built on and greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles. One of the most influential economists of the 20th century, he produced writings that are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots. His ideas, reformulated as New Keynesianism, are fundamental to mainstream macroeconomics. He is known as the "father of macroeconomics".
George Arthur Akerlof is an American economist and a university professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University and Koshland Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. Akerlof was awarded the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Michael Spence and Joseph Stiglitz, "for their analyses of markets with asymmetric information." He is the husband of United States Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is a book by English economist John Maynard Keynes published in February 1936. It caused a profound shift in economic thought, giving macroeconomics a central place in economic theory and contributing much of its terminology – the "Keynesian Revolution". It had equally powerful consequences in economic policy, being interpreted as providing theoretical support for government spending in general, and for budgetary deficits, monetary intervention and counter-cyclical policies in particular. It is pervaded with an air of mistrust for the rationality of free-market decision making.
In classical economics, Say's law, or the law of markets, is the claim that the production of a product creates demand for another product by providing something of value which can be exchanged for that other product. So, production is the source of demand. In his principal work, A Treatise on Political Economy, Jean-Baptiste Say wrote: "A product is no sooner created, than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value." And also, "As each of us can only purchase the productions of others with his/her own productions – as the value we can buy is equal to the value we can produce, the more men can produce, the more they will purchase."
Underconsumption is a theory in economics that recessions and stagnation arise from an inadequate consumer demand, relative to the amount produced. In other words, there is a problem of overproduction and overinvestment during a demand crisis. The theory formed the basis for the development of Keynesian economics and the theory of aggregate demand after the 1930s.
In economics, money illusion, or price illusion, is a cognitive bias where money is thought of in nominal, rather than real terms. In other words, the face value of money is mistaken for its purchasing power at a previous point in time. Viewing purchasing power as measured by the nominal value is false, as modern fiat currencies have no intrinsic value and their real value depends purely on the price level. The term was coined by Irving Fisher in Stabilizing the Dollar. It was popularized by John Maynard Keynes in the early twentieth century, and Irving Fisher wrote an important book on the subject, The Money Illusion, in 1928.
The history of economic thought is the study of the philosophies of the different thinkers and theories in the subjects that later became political economy and economics, from the ancient world to the present day.
Robert James Shiller is an American economist, academic, and author. As of 2022, he served as a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was vice president of the American Economic Association in 2005, its president-elect for 2016, and president of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006–2007. He is also the co‑founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.
Animal spirits or animal spirit may refer to:
The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), or neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis is an academic movement and paradigm in economics that worked towards reconciling the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Keynes in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) with neoclassical economics.
Following the global 2007–2008 financial crisis, there was a worldwide resurgence of interest in Keynesian economics among prominent economists and policy makers. This included discussions and implementation of economic policies in accordance with the recommendations made by John Maynard Keynes in response to the Great Depression of the 1930s, most especially fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary policy.
The Keynesian Revolution was a fundamental reworking of economic theory concerning the factors determining employment levels in the overall economy. The revolution was set against the then orthodox economic framework, namely neoclassical economics.
Animal spirits is a term used by John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money to describe the instincts, proclivities and emotions that seemingly influence human behavior, which can be measured in terms of consumer confidence.
Macroeconomic theory has its origins in the study of business cycles and monetary theory. In general, early theorists believed monetary factors could not affect real factors such as real output. John Maynard Keynes attacked some of these "classical" theories and produced a general theory that described the whole economy in terms of aggregates rather than individual, microeconomic parts. Attempting to explain unemployment and recessions, he noticed the tendency for people and businesses to hoard cash and avoid investment during a recession. He argued that this invalidated the assumptions of classical economists who thought that markets always clear, leaving no surplus of goods and no willing labor left idle.
Keynes: The Return of the Master is a 2009 book by economic historian Robert Skidelsky. The work discusses the economic theories and philosophy of John Maynard Keynes, and argues about their relevance to the world following the Financial crisis of 2007–2010. In contrast to the 30 years he needed to write his prize-winning biography on Keynes, the author was able to write this 240-page book in only three months.
Fear the Boom and Bust is a 2010 hip hop music video in which 20th century economists John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich von Hayek take part in a rap battle discussing economics, specifically, the boom and bust business cycle, for which the video is named. The video has more than seven million views on YouTube.
The term kaleidics denotes the ever-changing shape and status of an economy. Uncertainty is the primary kaleidic factor. It is strongly associated with the work of George Shackle, who had a rather radical interpretation of Keynesian economic theory. He surmised that the uncertainty in a capitalist economy was due to the irrational nature of investment, which is often driven by irrational fears, rumors, and superstition, rather than what is traditionally assumed to be cold, hard, calculation. Such theories lead to the view, expressed in Viennese kaleidics, that the turbulence of markets cannot be smoothed through government interference, and must therefore be left to their own devices.
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 is a non-fiction book by American economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, written in response to growing socio-political discourse on the return of economic conditions similar to The Great Depression. The book was first published in 1999 and later updated in 2008 following his Nobel Prize of Economics. The Return of Depression Economics uses Keynesian analysis of past economics crisis, drawing parallels between the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Depression. Krugman challenges orthodox economic notions of restricted government spending, deregulation of markets and the efficient market hypothesis. Krugman offers policy recommendations for the prevention of future financial crises and suggests that policymakers "relearn the lessons our grandfathers were taught by the Great Depression" and prop up spending and enable broader access to credit.
Keynes's theory of wages and prices is contained in the three chapters 19-21 comprising Book V of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Keynes, contrary to the mainstream economists of his time, argued that capitalist economies were not inherently self-correcting. Wages and prices were "sticky", in that they were not flexible enough to respond efficiently to market demand. An economic depression for instance, would not necessarily set off a chain of events leading back to full employment and higher wages. Keynes believed that government action was necessary for the economy to recover.
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