Brian C. O'Neill

Last updated

Brian C. O'Neill
Born1965 (age 5859)
Citizenship United States
Education Ph.D. in Earth Systems Science
M.S. in Applied Science
Alma mater New York University
Known forScenario analysis
Population and climate change
Scientific career
Fields Earth system science
Demography
integrated assessment modeling
Institutions IIASA
Brown University
NCAR
Website www.pnnl.gov/atmospheric/staff/staff_info.asp?staff_num=10338

Brian C. O'Neill (born 1965) is an American earth system scientist who studies the relationship between future societal development, emissions, and climate change impacts. O'Neill is known for interdisciplinary work on climate and human systems, in particular population and climate change. He was also involved in the development of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to be used in scenario analysis. He served as a lead author for several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.

Contents

Education

O'Neill obtained an M.S. in Applied Science and a Ph.D. in Earth Systems Science from New York University.

Career

After working on the science staff of the Environmental Defense Fund in New York, he was an Assistant and Associate Professor (Research) at Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies. From 2005 to 2009 O'Neill was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, where he founded and led the Population and Climate Change Program. Afterwards, he returned to the United States to work at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). At NCAR, he was a Senior Scientist and led the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group. In September 2018, he started working as a professor for the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. In October 2020, O'Neill was appointed as director of the Joint Global Change Research Institute of the University of Maryland, College Park and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. [1]

Research

O'Neill has researched the interplay of future societal development, emissions, and climate change impacts. He has written several publications on the relationship between demography and climate change, including how demographic factors like aging or urbanization affect emission trajectories and how climate change impacts are dependent on demographic composition, which affects the ability to adapt. [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

O'Neill uses long-term scenarios in his analysis and contributes to their development. Most notably, he was involved in the development of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to be used in scenario analysis. [7] [8] [9] These SSPs replace the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections and will be used to systematically assess climate change under different societal futures. [10] O'Neill was also the driving force behind the first Scenarios Forum in 2019, which he organized at the University of Denver.

O'Neill has performed research on impacts from climate change by using integrated assessment modelling impacts, as well as advancing concepts on how to best systematically assess impacts. [11] He co-led the "Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE" (BRACE) project to study climate change impacts and co-edited a special issue in Climatic Change. [12]

O'Neill has also served as a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Assessment Reports. For the volumes on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Working Group II), he was lead author for the chapter on "New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of Future Conditions" (AR4) and "Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities" (AR5), respectively. O'Neill is currently coordinating lead author of the Sixth Assessment Report for the chapter on "Key risks across sectors and regions". [13]

Personal life

O'Neill has been married to Celeste O'Neill for 25 years and is the father of two girls.[ citation needed ]

Related Research Articles

In climatology, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a collaborative framework designed to improve knowledge of climate change. It was organized in 1995 by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). It is developed in phases to foster the climate model improvements but also to support national and international assessments of climate change. A related project is the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic analysis of climate change</span>

The economic analysis of climate change explains how economic thinking, tools and techniques are applied to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damage caused by climate change. It also informs the policies and approaches for mitigation and adaptation to climate change from global to household scales. This topic is also inclusive of alternative economic approaches, including ecological economics and degrowth. In a cost–benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made explicit. Cost–benefit analyses of climate change are produced using integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate aspects of the natural, social, and economic sciences. The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate, but increase for higher temperature changes.

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM)  is a term used for a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The goal of integrated assessment modelling is to accommodate informed policy-making, usually in the context of climate change though also in other areas of human and social development. While the detail and extent of integrated disciplines varies strongly per model, all climatic integrated assessment modelling includes economic processes as well as processes producing greenhouse gases. Other integrated assessment models also integrate other aspects of human development such as education, health, infrastructure, and governance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change scenario</span> Projections of future greenhouse gas emissions


Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold. This will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers.

Convergence in sustainability sciences refers to mechanisms and pathways that lead towards sustainability with a specific focus on 'Equity within biological planetary limits'. These pathways and mechanisms explicitly advocate equity and recognise the need for redistribution of the Earth's resources in order for human society to operate enduringly within the Earth's biophysical limits.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Representative Concentration Pathway</span> Projections used in climate change modeling

A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The pathways describe different climate change scenarios, all of which are considered possible depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. The RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100. The higher values mean higher greenhouse gas emissions and therefore higher global temperatures and more pronounced effects of climate change. The lower RCP values, on the other hand, are more desirable for humans but require more stringent climate change mitigation efforts to achieve them.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on human health</span> Environmental history

The effects of climate change on human health are increasingly well studied and quantified. Rising temperatures and changes in weather patterns are increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves, wildfires, droughts, floods, landslides, hurricanes, and other causes of injury and illness. Heat waves and extreme weather events have a big impact on health both directly and indirectly. Direct effects of exposure to high and extended temperatures include illness, reduced labour capacity for outdoor workers, and heat-related mortality.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nationally determined contribution</span> Key component of international climate change agreements

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are commitments that countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of climate change mitigation. The plans that countries make also include policies and measures that they plan to implement as a contribution to achieve the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement. NDCs play a central role in guiding countries toward achieving these temperature targets.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate inertia</span> Slow response of complex feedback systems

Climate inertia or climate change inertia is the phenomenon by which a planet's climate system shows a resistance or slowness to deviate away from a given dynamic state. It can accompany stability and other effects of feedback within complex systems, and includes the inertia exhibited by physical movements of matter and exchanges of energy. The term is a colloquialism used to encompass and loosely describe a set of interactions that extend the timescales around climate sensitivity. Inertia has been associated with the drivers of, and the responses to, climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on agriculture</span> Effects of climate change on agriculture

There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought, heat waves and flooding. These effects of climate change can also increase the currently-rare risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures, which would have significant consequences for the global food supply. Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of the same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases.

Energy modeling or energy system modeling is the process of building computer models of energy systems in order to analyze them. Such models often employ scenario analysis to investigate different assumptions about the technical and economic conditions at play. Outputs may include the system feasibility, greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative financial costs, natural resource use, and energy efficiency of the system under investigation. A wide range of techniques are employed, ranging from broadly economic to broadly engineering. Mathematical optimization is often used to determine the least-cost in some sense. Models can be international, regional, national, municipal, or stand-alone in scope. Governments maintain national energy models for energy policy development.

CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effect Fertilization from increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide

The CO2 fertilization effect or carbon fertilization effect causes an increased rate of photosynthesis while limiting leaf transpiration in plants. Both processes result from increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The carbon fertilization effect varies depending on plant species, air and soil temperature, and availability of water and nutrients. Net primary productivity (NPP) might positively respond to the carbon fertilization effect. Although, evidence shows that enhanced rates of photosynthesis in plants due to CO2 fertilization do not directly enhance all plant growth, and thus carbon storage. The carbon fertilization effect has been reported to be the cause of 44% of gross primary productivity (GPP) increase since the 2000s. Earth System Models, Land System Models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models are used to investigate and interpret vegetation trends related to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2. However, the ecosystem processes associated with the CO2 fertilization effect remain uncertain and therefore are challenging to model.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon budget</span> Limit on carbon dioxide emission for a given climate impact

A carbon budget is a concept used in climate policy to help set emissions reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It looks at "the maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level". When expressed relative to the pre-industrial period it is referred to as the total carbon budget, and when expressed from a recent specified date it is referred to as the remaining carbon budget.

Kristie L. Ebi is an American epidemiologist whose primary focus is the impact of global warming on human health. She is a professor of Global Health and Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences in the Department of Global Health at the University of Washington.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</span> How the world might change up to the end of the 21st century

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change in 2021. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies. The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments. These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating elements of the narratives to each other. In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying the scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP. The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Katherine Calvin</span> American earth scientist

Katherine Calvin is NASA's Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor. In July 2023, she was elected co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III. As an earth scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), she has researched human use of global resources using Earth modeling systems at JGCRI under the direction of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Maryland. She has contributed to the third US National Climate Assessment as well as two special reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate target</span> Policy for emissions reductions

A climate target, climate goal or climate pledge is a measurable long-term commitment for climate policy and energy policy with the aim of limiting the climate change. Researchers within, among others, the UN climate panel have identified probable consequences of global warming for people and nature at different levels of warming. Based on this, politicians in a large number of countries have agreed on temperature targets for warming, which is the basis for scientifically calculated carbon budgets and ways to achieve these targets. This in turn forms the basis for politically decided global and national emission targets for greenhouse gases, targets for fossil-free energy production and efficient energy use, and for the extent of planned measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kenneth Möllersten</span> Swedish researcher

Kenneth Karl Mikael Möllersten is a Swedish researcher. He holds a PhD in chemical engineering and an MSc in mechanical engineering, both from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden. Möllersten is a consultant and researcher at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, was previously affiliated as a researcher with Mälardalen University and is currently affiliated with KTH.

Joeri Rogelj is a Belgian climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. He is a Professor in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Air travel demand reduction</span> Climate change mitigation method

Air travel demand mitigation or aviation demand reduction or air travel demand reduction is a part of transportation demand management and climate change mitigation.

References

  1. Brian O’Neill Named New Director for the Joint Global Change Research Institute
  2. O'Neill, Brian C; MacKellar, F Landis; Lutz, Wolfgang (2001). Population and Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
  3. O'Neill, Brian C; Ren, Xiaolin; Jiang, Leiwen; Dalton, Michael (2012). "The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model". Energy Economics. 34: S339–S345. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.004.
  4. O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina (2010). "Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions" (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 107 (41): 17521–17526. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10717521O. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1004581107 . PMC   2955139 . PMID   20937861.
  5. Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Prskawetz, Alexia; Jiang, Leiwen; Pitkin, John (2008). "Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States" (PDF). Energy Economics. 30 (2): 642–675. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.07.002.
  6. O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina (2012). "Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions". The Lancet. 380 (9837): 157–164. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60958-1. PMID   22784534. S2CID   41807250.
  7. O'Neill, Brian C; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Ebi, Kristie L; Hallegatte, Stephane; Carter, Timothy R; Mathur, Ritu; Van Vuuren, Detlef P (2013). "A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways". Climatic Change. 122 (3): 387–400. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 . hdl: 10986/23213 .
  8. O'Neill, Brian C; Kriegler, Elmar; Ebi, Kristie L; Kemp-Benedict, Eric; Riahi, Keywan; Rothman, Dale S; Van Ruijven, Bas J; Van Vuuren, Detlef P; Birkmann, Joern; Kok, Kasper; Levy, Marc; Solecki, William (2017). "The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century". Global Environmental Change. 42: 169–180. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004. hdl: 1874/347567 .
  9. Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian C; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Lempert, Robert J; Moss, Richard H; Wilbanks, Thomas (2012). "The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways". Global Environmental Change. 22 (4): 807–822. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005.
  10. O'Neill, Brian C; Tebaldi, Claudia; Van Vuuren, Detlef P; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M (2016). "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6". Geoscientific Model Development. 9 (9): 3461–3482. Bibcode:2016GMD.....9.3461O. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 . hdl: 20.500.11850/121420 .
  11. O'Neill, Brian C; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kopp, Robert E; Pörtner, Hans O; Scholes, Robert; Birkmann, Joern; Foden, Wendy; Licker, Rachel; Mach, Katharine J; Marbaix, Phillippe; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Price, Jeff; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Yohe, Gary (2017). "IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 7 (1): 28–37. Bibcode:2017NatCC...7...28O. doi:10.1038/nclimate3179.
  12. O'Neill, Brian C; Gettelman, Andrew (2018). "An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)". Climatic Change. 146 (3–4): 277–285. Bibcode:2018ClCh..146..277O. doi: 10.1007/s10584-017-2136-4 .
  13. Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

Major publications