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The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.
The International Energy Agency is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organisation established in the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1974 in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis. The IEA was initially dedicated to responding to physical disruptions in the supply of oil, as well as serving as an information source on statistics about the international oil market and other energy sectors. It is best known for the publication of its annual World Energy Outlook.
Marion King Hubbert was an American geologist and geophysicist. He worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory, with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as "M. King Hubbert" or "King Hubbert".
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.
Peak oil is the moment at which extraction of petroleum reaches a rate greater than that at any time in the past and starts to permanently decrease. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price. A secular decline in oil extraction could be caused both by depletion of accessible reserves and by reductions in demand that reduce the price relative to the cost of extraction, as might be induced to reduce carbon emissions.
Colin J. Campbell is a retired British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would peak by 2007. He claims the consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependency on fossil fuels for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. To deal with declining global oil production, he has proposed the Rimini protocol.
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under US$25/barrel in 2008 dollars. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including Middle East tension, soaring demand from China, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports showing a decline in petroleum reserves, worries over peak oil, and financial speculation.
Daniel Howard Yergin is an American author, speaker, energy expert, and economic historian. Yergin is vice chairman of IHS Markit, a research and information company which absorbed his own energy research consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates in 2004. He has authored or co-authored several books on energy and world economics, including the Pulitzer Prize–winning The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, (1991) The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (2011), and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (2020). Yergin's articles and op-eds on energy, history, and the economy have been published in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Financial Times. All of Yergin's books have been drafted in long-hand. Currently a director on entities such as the Council on Foreign Relations and the United States Energy Association, he is also a trustee of the Brookings Institution and a long-term advisor to several U.S. administrations, as well as chairman of the annual CERAWeek energy conference.
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power is Daniel Yergin's history of the global petroleum industry from the 1850s through 1990. The Prize became a bestseller, helped by its release date in December 1990, four months after the invasion of Kuwait ordered by Saddam Hussein and one month before the U.S.-led coalition began the Gulf War to oust Iraqi troops from that country. The book eventually went on to win a Pulitzer Prize.
Thane Gustafson is a professor of political science at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., United States. He specializes in comparative politics and the political history of Russia and the former USSR.
Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari was an Iranian author and oil expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). He held a number of senior positions with this organization beginning in 1971. He was also an adviser to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre.
Chris Skrebowski is a well-known commentator on the oil industry and an expert on global oil supply. He is the founding Director of Peak Oil Consulting and consulting editor for Petroleum Review, the magazine of the UK Energy Institute. Skrebowski is also a founding member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) and sits on the board of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC). He is a Fellow of the Energy Institute and advises the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas (APPGOPO).
The price of oil, or the oil price, generally refers to the spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil—a reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC Reference Basket, Tapis crude, Bonny Light, Urals oil, Isthmus and Western Canadian Select (WCS).
Big Oil is a name used to describe the world's six or seven largest publicly traded oil and gas companies, also known as supermajors. The term emphasizes their economic power and influence on politics, particularly in the United States. Big Oil is often associated with the fossil fuels lobby and also used to refer to the industry as a whole in a pejorative or derogatory manner.
US energy independence is the idea of eliminating the need for the United States to import petroleum and other foreign sources of energy, either entirely or with the exception of imports from Canada and Mexico, in which case it is called North American energy independence. Energy independence is espoused by those who want to leave the US unaffected by global energy supply disruptions, and to restrict reliance upon politically unstable states for its energy security. Energy independence is highly concerned with oil, the source of the country's principal transport fuels.
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity. The centre is working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil depletion and peak oil problem. It is based in London and belongs to the New Economics Foundation.
The upstream capital costs index (UCCI), formally known as IHS/CERA upstream capital costs index, is a proprietary index of the rate of inflation seen in the costs associated with the construction of a global portfolio of 28 upstream oil and gas projects. The UCCI is managed and released by Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Updates are posted May and November of each year.
Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.
The Center on Global Energy Policy is a research center located within the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. The center's director is Jason Bordoff, and it features senior research scholars such as Richard Nephew and Varun Sivaram, as well as visiting fellows and adjunct senior research scholars such as Cheryl LaFleur and Richard Kauffman. The center's stated mission is to "advance smart, actionable and evidence-based energy and climate solutions through research, education and dialogue".
CERAWeek is an annual energy conference organized by the information and insights company IHS Markit in Houston, Texas. The conference provides a platform for discussion on a range of energy-related topics; CERAWeek 2019 featured sessions on the world economic outlook, geopolitics, energy policy and regulation, climate change and technological innovation, among other topics. The conference features prominent speakers from energy, policy, technology, and financial industries, and is chaired by Pulitzer Prize winner Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman, IHS Markit and Jamey Rosenfield, vice chair, CERAWeek, senior vice president, IHS Markit. Both are co-founders of Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
References
- ↑ "About IHS". IHS CERA. 2012. Retrieved 2012-06-04.
- ↑ Jackson, Peter (November 4, 2009). "The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks". IHS CERA.
- ↑ Andrews, Steve; Udall, Randy (2008-02-19). "CERA's peak oil critique has a credibility problem". ASPO-USA.
- ↑ Skrebowski, Chris (2006-12-06). "An open letter to CERA from Chris Skrebowski". Global Public Media. Retrieved 2012-06-04.
- ↑ Smith, Aaron (2008-06-28). "Oil speculation: The great debate". CNNMoney.com . Retrieved 2012-06-04.
- ↑ Brady, Aaron (September 29, 2009). "Peak Oil Demand in the Developed World: It's Here". IHS CERA.
