Constituency projections for the 2021 German federal election

Last updated

Direct mandates

Graphic of possible distribution of direct mandates
SourceDate Union SPD AfD Linke Grüne FDP
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021143121163160
Wahlkreisprognose 24 September 20211431434450
election.de 24 September 202114413112570
Wahlkreisprognose 21 September 202113914144110
INSA 20 September 202190182142110
election.de 17 September 202113413814580
Wahlkreisprognose 16 September 2021981808490
INSA 13 September 202175200103110
election.de 10 September 202113113718580
Wahlkreisprognose 8 September 2021841988450
INSA 6 September 202184198133110
election.de 3 September 2021153106166180
Wahlkreisprognose 31 August 20218219494100
INSA30 August 20217719263210
election.de 27 August 202118181135190
INSA 23 August 202112614953160
election.de 20 August 20212016184250
Wahlkreisprognose 18 August 202113512674270
INSA 16 August 20211759903220
election.de 13 August 20212135154260
Wahlkreisprognose 12 August 202115310844300
INSA 9 August 20212006443280
election.de 6 August 20212234744210
Wahlkreisprognose 4 August 20211689944240
INSA 2 August 20212116013240
election.de 30 July 20212333743220
INSA 26 July 202119460223200
election.de 23 July 20212333734220
Wahlkreisprognose 20 July 20212067034160
INSA 19 July 20212393252210
INSA 12 July 20212314243190
election.de 9 July 20212293734260
INSA 5 July 20212403223220
Wahlkreisprognose 30 June 20212155974140
INSA 28 June 20212432924210
election.de 25 June 20212203343390
INSA 21 June 20212422543250
Wahlkreisprognose 15 June 20212245734110
INSA 14 June 20212154713330
election.de 11 June 20212053663490
INSA 7 June 20212203243400
election.de 4 June 20211874283590
INSA 31 May 20211984623500
INSA 25 May 20212044233470
Wahlkreisprognose 23 May 20211458294581
election.de 21 May 20211804583630
INSA 17 May 202118347153510
INSA 10 May 20212042893550
election.de 7 May 202116647204620
INSA 4 May 202116743204650
INSA 27 April 20211695383660
election.de 23 April 202119842143420
INSA 20 April 20212153943380
Wahlkreisprognose 14 April 20211776265490
INSA 13 April 202120242153370
election.de 9 April 20212094983300
INSA 6 April 20212045113400
INSA 30 March 202118457143410
INSA 23 March 20212035763300
Wahlkreisprognose 20 March 20211827647300
election.de 19 March 20212354344130
INSA 16 March 20212314183160
INSA 9 March 20212403643160
INSA 2 March 20212503403120
INSA 23 February 20212681613110
election.de 17 February 2021269181380
INSA 15 February 20212622403100
INSA 9 February 2021279703100
INSA 2 February 202128640270
Wahlkreisprognose 2 February 2021244404380
election.de 27 January 2021276121370
INSA 26 January 2021278120180
INSA 19 January 2021283213100
INSA 12 January 202128450280
INSA 5 January 202128341380
INSA 22 December 2020271181270
election.de 15 December 2020276121370
INSA 15 December 2020268211270
INSA 8 December 2020282403100
INSA 1 December 202028151480
INSA 24 November 202028341380
election.de 19 November 2020276121370
INSA 17 November 202028540370
INSA 10 November 2020280603100
INSA 3 November 2020276434120
Wahlkreisprognose 3 November 2020240424490
INSA 27 October 202028720280
INSA 20 October 202028340390
election.de 15 October 2020272141390
INSA 13 October 2020281303120
Wahlkreisprognose 9 October 20202333634230
INSA 6 October 202028620290
INSA 29 September 2020274912130
INSA 22 September 202028350380
election.de 21 September 2020277111370
Wahlkreisprognose 18 September 20202294785100
INSA 15 September 202028261370
INSA 8 September 202027980390
Wahlkreisprognose 6 September 2020233477480
INSA 1 September 202028071380
INSA 25 August 2020279100370
election.de 23 August 202028371440
INSA 18 August 2020268210370
Wahlkreisprognose 17 August 2020230565440
INSA 11 August 202028451450
Wahlkreisprognose 11 August 2020233526440
INSA 4 August 202028820360
INSA 28 July 202028740260
INSA 21 July 202028550450
election.de 16 July 202028641440
INSA 14 July 202028530380
Wahlkreisprognose 14 July 2020268241240
INSA 7 July 202028431560
INSA 30 June 202028441370
INSA 23 June 202028520390
election.de 14 June 202028840430
Wahlkreisprognose 12 June 2020266243150
INSA 9 June 202028720370
INSA 3 June 202028711370
Wahlkreisprognose 31 May 20202423813150
INSA26 May 202028440380
INSA19 May 202028730270
Wahlkreisprognose 13 May 2020260279210
INSA 12 May 202028721360
election.de 12 May 202028841420
Wahlkreisprognose 6 May 2020267218120
INSA 5 May 202028630370
Wahlkreisprognose 30 April 2020249444110
INSA 28 April 202028831250
Wahlkreisprognose 23 April 2020234573500
INSA 21 April 202028820360
INSA 15 April 202028820360
Wahlkreisprognose 9 April 2020243540110
election.de 8 April 2020266201390
INSA 7 April 202028721450
INSA 31 March 202028323380
Wahlkreisprognose 27 March 2020227596430
INSA 24 March 2020266813210
Wahlkreisprognose 19 March 20202066418740
INSA 17 March 20202291673440
INSA10 March 202019136223470
election.de 10 March 202018749195390
INSA 3 March 20201924547510
Wahlkreisprognose 2 March 202015354317540
INSA 25 February 2020199271711450
INSA 18 February 2020192253212380
election.de 11 February 202021529175330
INSA 11 February 20202167257440
INSA 4 February 20202361073430
INSA 28 January 202020421324380
INSA 21 January 20202167325390
election.de 14 January 202021628194320
Wahlkreisprognose 10 January 202018629305390
INSA 7 January 20202376163370
INSA 23 December 20192371443410
election.de 17 December 201921529194320
INSA 10 December 201922019203370
INSA 26 November 20192122744520
INSA 19 November 201919044153470
election.de 19 November 201919050225320
INSA 12 November 201917740346420
INSA 5 November 201920822185460
INSA 29 October 201919218304550
INSA 22 October 201921516173480
INSA 15 October 201922618113410
election.de 14 October 201921427193360
INSA 1 October 20192231863490
INSA 24 September 201919826243480
election.de 17 September 201920934183350
INSA 17 September 201920219303450
INSA 10 September 201921514233440
INSA 3 September 201919525272500
INSA 27 August 201920614172600
election.de 21 August 201920827163450
INSA 20 August 20192081843660
INSA 13 August 20192216203490
INSA 6 August 20192215175510
INSA 30 July 20192181444590
INSA 23 July 2019243553430
election.de 17 July 201919731173510
INSA 16 July 201919721163620
INSA 9 July 20192212134500
INSA 2 July 201920815174550
Wahlkreisprognose 27 June 201914237344820
INSA 25 June 201919414225640
INSA 18 June 2019180232510610
INSA 11 June 201917725254680
election.de 7 June 201920735173370
INSA 4 June 20192052243650
Wahlkreisprognose 4 June 201915522266900
INSA 21 May 201922432154240
election.de 17 May 201922542115160
INSA 14 May 20192323634240
INSA 7 May 201921832145300
INSA 30 April 20192194633280
election.de 16 April 20192344185110
INSA 16 April 20192462814200
INSA 2 April 20192413443170
INSA 26 March 20192502295130
election.de 20 March 2019243348590
INSA 19 March 201923628710180
INSA 12 March 20192591725160
INSA 5 March 20192255545100
INSA 26 February 20192206414100
INSA 19 February 2019230515490
election.de 13 February 20192423195120
INSA 12 February 20192393125220
INSA 5 February 201924218145200
INSA 29 January 201924416415200
INSA 22 January 2019263745200
election.de 17 January 201924026125160
INSA 15 January 201922818249200
INSA 8 January 201923818207160
election.de 18 December 201824027115160
INSA 18 December 20182502045200
INSA 11 December 20182433035180
INSA 4 December 2018235151910200
election.de 29 November 201820538256250
INSA 27 November 201822124225270
INSA 20 November 201820032255370
INSA 13 November 201819731296360
INSA 6 November 2018204292112330
INSA 30 October 201820633145410
election.de 24 October 201818947326230
INSA 23 October 201821337125320
election.de 17 October 20182056023560
INSA 16 October 2018205352713190
INSA 9 October 201820061244100
INSA 25 September 201820547271280
election.de 13 September 20182136117530
INSA 11 September 20182145813950
INSA 3 September 20182373813560
INSA 28 August 2018236467550
INSA 21 August 20182354081060
election.de 16 August 20182136117530
INSA 14 August 2018229574450
INSA 7 August 2018232554440
INSA 31 July 2018218619830
INSA 24 July 2018227603450
election.de 18 July 20182146017530
INSA 16 July 2018241409540
INSA 9 July 2018236504540
INSA 2 July 2018221653550
INSA 25 June 2018214677830
INSA 18 June 20182116161650
election.de 15 June 2018229594520
INSA 11 June 2018244358930
INSA 4 June 2018261291440
INSA 28 May 2018256314440
election.de 24 May 2018240494420
election.de 23 April 2018239484530
INSA23 April 2018240482450
election.de 20 March 2018237514520
election.de 16 February 2018230547530
election.de 19 January 2018240492530
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017231593510

By probability

SourceDate Union SPD AfD Linke Grüne
SafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLean
election.de 24 September 2021304965255254039122025
election.de 17 September 20212548612854560410122026
election.de 10 September 20212747572852570612122035
election.de 3 September 202141625012454903131230315
election.de 27 August 20215173575403603101221216
election.de 20 August 2021528168325330261211420
election.de 13 August 2021609162221280141121421
election.de 6 August 2021799351213320131121416
election.de 30 July 2021859850111250131111417
election.de 23 July 2021869750111250121121417
election.de 9 July 2021839848111250121121421
election.de 25 June 20217097531112101311141421
election.de 11 June 20215587631122302412052222
election.de 4 June 20214575672142602612062528
election.de 21 May 20213871712172602612062730
election.de 7 May 202138666222223131612162729
election.de 23 April 20216183542162403112103930
election.de 9 April 2021638462221260262103522
election.de 19 March 2021107715721130013211148
election.de 17 February 202115284330315001120116
election.de 27 January 202116678320210001120115
election.de 15 December 202016776330210001120115
election.de 19 November 202016480320210001120115
election.de 15 October 202015681350212001120117
election.de 21 September 20201687930029001120115
election.de 23 August 20201787332025001121022
election.de 16 July 20201877227013001112022
election.de 14 June 20201947222013000112021
election.de 12 May 20201887129022001112011
election.de 8 April 202015162531217001120117
election.de 10 March 202056824921631131521241124
election.de 11 February 2020758060172103142123822
election.de 14 January 2020797562142304152112921
election.de 17 December 2019787859172104152111724
election.de 19 November 20196576492173113182120923
election.de 14 October 20197180631620131521031419
election.de 17 September 2019586883142902161202528
election.de 21 August 20195963861224021421041031
election.de 17 July 20194962861426031421051630
election.de 7 June 2019586683143002152102629
election.de 17 May 2019707481163501102122311
election.de 16 April 20197576831436017212227
election.de 20 March 20198480790430017212225
election.de 13 February 20198675810328018212228
election.de 17 January 2019907377022401112122212
election.de 18 December 2018897477022501102122212
election.de 29 November 2018636775143313211233319
election.de 24 October 2018587160164215262133317
election.de 17 October 201871528226521220113024
election.de 13 September 20181222863518381214311012
election.de 16 August 20181232664518381214311012
election.de 18 July 201814230421316313113401003
election.de 15 June 2018118545721740013221002
election.de 24 May 2018130595121235013220002
election.de 23 April 2018128615021234013221003
election.de 20 March 2018127595121336013221002
election.de 16 February 2018118575521438016221003
election.de 19 January 2018128634921235011221003
2017 federal election 24 September 201723159351

Second place

SourceDate Union SPD AfD Linke Grüne
election.de 24 September 202113011311144
election.de 17 September 202112811813238
election.de 10 September 20211291158245
election.de 3 September 202111111711258
election.de 27 August 20219612415460
election.de 20 August 20218212521665
election.de 13 August 20217312126772
election.de 6 August 20216612031577
election.de 30 July 20215712130684
election.de 23 July 20215612031983
election.de 9 July 20215912130782
election.de 25 June 202163932910104
election.de 11 June 202174842711103
election.de 4 June 2021888026996
election.de 21 May 20219377261093
election.de 7 May 20211057518794
election.de 23 April 20218391251288
election.de 9 April 202172102291086
election.de 19 March 202155123301180
election.de 17 February 202125147301582
election.de 27 January 202118150301586
election.de 15 December 202018153331283
election.de 19 November 202018148331288
election.de 15 October 202022141291592
election.de 21 September 202017151331286
election.de 23 August 202014155331186
election.de 16 July 202011155341287
election.de 14 June 20209155271989
election.de 12 May 20209170331176
election.de 8 April 202030141331283
election.de 10 March 20209182251388
election.de 11 February 202069873112100
election.de 14 January 20207185357101
election.de 17 December 2019729433892
election.de 19 November 20199190271081
election.de 14 October 20197184385101
election.de 17 September 2019748838594
election.de 21 August 20197577329106
election.de 17 July 201985713110102
election.de 7 June 2019788629997
election.de 17 May 20196412030976
election.de 16 April 201955123301180
election.de 20 March 20195012736977
election.de 13 February 201950123331281
election.de 17 January 20195311437986
election.de 18 December 20185311639784
election.de 29 November 20187910236478
election.de 24 October 20189310234565
election.de 17 October 20188813246231
election.de 13 September 20188115844214
election.de 16 August 20188115943214
election.de 18 July 20188015944214
election.de 15 June 20186717540710
election.de 24 May 2018571834469
election.de 23 April 20185917939814
election.de 20 March 2018601844375
election.de 16 February 20186616939916
election.de 19 January 201857181321316
2017 federal election 24 September 20176618533105

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