 | The examples and perspective in this article deal primarily with the United States and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject.(August 2013) |
Core inflation represents the long run trend in the price level. In measuring long run inflation, transitory price changes should be excluded. One way of accomplishing this is by excluding items frequently subject to volatile prices, like food and energy.
The concept of core inflation as aggregate price growth excluding food and energy was introduced in a 1975 paper by Robert J. Gordon. [1] This is the definition of "core inflation" most used for political purposes. The core inflation model was subsequently developed and advocated by Otto Eckstein, in a paper published in 1981. [2] According to the economic theory historian Mark A. Wynne, "Eckstein was the first to propose a formal definition of core inflation, as the 'trend rate of increase of the price of aggregate supply.'” [3]
The preferred measure by the Federal Reserve of core inflation in the United States is the change in the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE). This index is based on a dynamic consumption basket. Economic variables adjusted by this price deflator are expressed in chained dollars, rather than the alternative constant-dollar measure based on a fixed goods' basket.
Since February 2000, the Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress have described the Board’s outlook for inflation in terms of the PCE. Prior to that, the inflation outlook was presented in terms of the CPI. In explaining its preference for the PCE, the Board stated:
The chain-type price PCE index draws extensively on data from the consumer price index but, while not entirely free of measurement problems, has several advantages relative to the CPI. The PCE chain-type index is constructed from a formula that reflects the changing composition of spending and thereby avoids some of the upward bias associated with the fixed-weight nature of the CPI. In addition, the weights are based on a more comprehensive measure of expenditures. Finally, historical data used in the PCE price index can be revised to account for newly available information and for improvements in measurement techniques, including those that affect source data from the CPI; the result is a more consistent series over time.
—Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Feb. 17, 2000
Previously the Federal Reserve had used the US Consumer Price Index as its preferred measure of inflation. The CPI is still used for many purposes, for example, for indexing social security. The equivalent of the CPI is also commonly used by central banks of other countries when measuring inflation. The CPI is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month-to-month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.
There are other ways of measuring inflation rates.
A trimmed mean PCE price index, which separates "noise" and "signal" means that the highest rises and declines in prices are trimmed by a certain percentage, attributing to a more accurate measurement on core inflation. In the United States, the Dallas Federal Reserve computes trimming at 19.4% at the lower tail end and 25.4% at the upper tail.
In 2006, an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that as a measure, core inflation was no better than a moving average of the Consumer Price Index or CPI as a predictor of inflation. [4]
The Median CPI is usually higher than the trimmed figures for both PCE and CPI. The Cleveland Federal Reserve computes a Median CPI and a 16% trimmed mean CPI. There also is a median PCE, but it is not widely used as a predictor of inflation.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using the consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate, housing starts, consumer price index, Inverted yield curve, consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, price index, and changes in credit conditions.
A consumer price index (CPI) is a price index, the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Changes in measured CPI track changes in prices over time. The CPI is calculated by using a representative basket of goods and services. The basket is updated periodically to reflect changes in consumer spending habits. The prices of the goods and services in the basket are collected monthly from a sample of retail and service establishments. The prices are then adjusted for changes in quality or features. Changes in the CPI can be used to track inflation over time and to compare inflation rates between different countries. The CPI is not a perfect measure of inflation or the cost of living, but it is a useful tool for tracking these economic indicators.
In economics, the GDP deflator is a measure of the money price of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy in a year relative to the real value of them. It can be used as a measure of the value of money. GDP stands for gross domestic product, the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within the territory of a country over a particular period of time.
Price stability is a goal of monetary and fiscal policy aiming to support sustainable rates of economic activity. Policy is set to maintain a very low rate of inflation or deflation. For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) describes price stability as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Euro area of below 2%. However, by referring to "an increase in the HICP of below 2%" the ECB makes clear that not only persistent inflation above 2% but also deflation are inconsistent with the goal of price stability.
The PCE price index (PePP), also referred to as the PCE deflator, PCE price deflator, or the Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and as the Chain-type Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (CTPIPCE) by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. It is benchmarked to a base of 2012 = 100. Using a variety of data including U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index prices, it is derived from the largest component of the GDP in the BEA's National Income and Product Accounts, personal consumption expenditures.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is the official measure of producer prices in the economy of the United States. It measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI was known as the Wholesale Price Index, or WPI, up to 1978. It is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is one of the oldest economic time series compiled by the Federal government of the United States.
In the United Kingdom, the Retail Prices Index or Retail Price Index (RPI) is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics. It measures the change in the cost of a representative sample of retail goods and services.
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is an indicator of inflation and price stability for the European Central Bank (ECB). It is a consumer price index which is compiled according to a methodology that has been harmonised across EU countries. The euro area HICP is a weighted average of price indices of member states who have adopted the euro. The primary goal of the ECB is to maintain price stability, defined as keeping the year on year increase HICP target on 2% over the medium term. In order to do that, the ECB can control the short-term interest rate through Eonia, the European overnight index average, which affects market expectations. The HICP is also used to assess the convergence criteria on inflation which countries must fulfill in order to adopt the euro. In the United Kingdom, the HICP is called the CPI and is used to set the inflation target of the Bank of England.
The employment cost index (ECI) is a quarterly economic series detailing the changes in the costs of labor for businesses in the United States economy. The ECI is prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in the U.S. Department of Labor.
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a family of various consumer price indices published monthly by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The most commonly used indices are the CPI-U and the CPI-W, though many alternative versions exist for different uses. For example, the CPI-U is the most popularly cited measure of consumer inflation in the United States, while the CPI-W is used to index Social Security benefit payments.
Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, to allow the comparison of figures from different years. The U.S. Department of Commerce introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. It generally reflects dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.
Headline inflation is a measure of the total inflation within an economy, including commodities such as food and energy prices, which tend to be much more volatile and prone to inflationary spikes. On the other hand, "core inflation" is calculated from a consumer price index minus the volatile food and energy components. Headline inflation may not present an accurate picture of an economy's inflationary trend since sector-specific inflationary spikes are unlikely to persist.
This page lists details of the consumer price index by country.
James Brian Bullard is the former chief executive officer and 12th president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a position he held from 2008 until August 14, 2023. In July 2023, he was named dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University.
The consumer price index (CPI) is the official measure of inflation in South Africa. One variant, the consumer price index excluding mortgage costs (CPIX), is officially targeted by the South African Reserve Bank and a primary measure that determines national interest rates.
Constant purchasing power accounting (CPPA) is an accounting model that is an alternative to model historical cost accounting under high inflation and hyper-inflationary environments. It has been approved for use by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Under this IFRS and US GAAP authorized system, financial capital maintenance is always measured in units of constant purchasing power (CPP) in terms of a Daily CPI during low inflation, high inflation, hyperinflation and deflation; i.e., during all possible economic environments. During all economic environments it can also be measured in a monetized daily indexed unit of account or in terms of a daily relatively stable foreign currency parallel rate, particularly during hyperinflation when a government refuses to publish CPI data.
Inflation rate in India was 4.83% as of April 2024, as per the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. This represents a modest reduction from the previous figure of 5.69% for December 2023. CPI for the months of January, February and March 2024 are 5.10, 5.09 and 4.85 respectively. Inflation rates in India are usually quoted as changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), for all commodities.
The United States Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI-U), also known as chain-weighted CPI or chain-linked CPI is a time series measure of price levels of consumer goods and services created by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as an alternative to the US Consumer Price Index. It is based on the idea that when prices of different goods change at different rates, consumers will adjust their purchasing patterns by purchasing more of products whose relative prices have declined and fewer of those whose relative price has increased. This reduces the cost of living reported, but has no change on the cost of living; it is simply a way of accounting for a microeconomic "substitution effect." The "fixed weight" CPI also takes such substitutions into account, but does so through a periodic adjustment of the "basket of goods" that it represents, rather than through a continuous adjustment in that basket. Application of the chained CPI to federal benefits has been controversially proposed to reduce the federal deficit.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a worldwide surge in inflation began in mid-2021 and lasted until mid-2022. Many countries saw their highest inflation rates in decades. It has been attributed to various causes, including pandemic-related economic dislocation, supply chain disruptions, the fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in 2020 and 2021 by governments and central banks around the world in response to the pandemic, and price gouging. Preexisting factors that may have contributed to the surge included housing shortages, climate impacts, and government budget deficits have also been cited as factors. Recovery in demand from the COVID-19 recession had, by 2021, revealed significant supply shortages across many business and consumer economic sectors. The inflation rate in the United States and the eurozone peaked in the second half of 2022 and sharply declined in 2023. Despite a worldwide decline, some economists have speculated that higher consumer prices are unlikely to return pre-pandemic levels and may remain elevated. Economists state that for prices to return to pre-pandemic levels a deflationary period would be required, which is usually associated with recession. However, as of August 2024, some average consumer prices in the United States have fallen as consumers have reduced spending while the economy continues to grow.
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