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Dependency networks (DNs) are graphical models, similar to Markov networks, wherein each vertex (node) corresponds to a random variable and each edge captures dependencies among variables. Unlike Bayesian networks, DNs may contain cycles. Each node is associated to a conditional probability table, which determines the realization of the random variable given its parents. [1]
In a Bayesian network, the Markov blanket of a node is the set of parents and children of that node, together with the children's parents. The values of the parents and children of a node evidently give information about that node. However, its children's parents also have to be included in the Markov blanket, because they can be used to explain away the node in question. In a Markov random field, the Markov blanket for a node is simply its adjacent (or neighboring) nodes. In a dependency network, the Markov blanket for a node is simply the set of its parents.
Dependency networks have advantages and disadvantages with respect to Bayesian networks. In particular, they are easier to parameterize from data, as there are efficient algorithms for learning both the structure and probabilities of a dependency network from data. Such algorithms are not available for Bayesian networks, for which the problem of determining the optimal structure is NP-hard. [2] Nonetheless, a dependency network may be more difficult to construct using a knowledge-based approach driven by expert-knowledge.
Consistent dependency networks and Markov networks have the same representational power. Nonetheless, it is possible to construct non-consistent dependency networks, i.e., dependency networks for which there is no compatible valid joint probability distribution. Markov networks, in contrast, are always consistent.
A consistent dependency network for a set of random variables with joint distribution is a pair where is a cyclic directed graph, where each of its nodes corresponds to a variable in , and is a set of conditional probability distributions. The parents of node , denoted , correspond to those variables that satisfy the following independence relationships
The dependency network is consistent in the sense that each local distribution can be obtained from the joint distribution . Dependency networks learned using large data sets with large sample sizes will almost always be consistent. A non-consistent network is a network for which there is no joint probability distribution compatible with the pair . In that case, there is no joint probability distribution that satisfies the independence relationships subsumed by that pair.
Two important tasks in a dependency network are to learn its structure and probabilities from data. Essentially, the learning algorithm consists of independently performing a probabilistic regression or classification for each variable in the domain. It comes from observation that the local distribution for variable in a dependency network is the conditional distribution , which can be estimated by any number of classification or regression techniques, such as methods using a probabilistic decision tree, a neural network or a probabilistic support-vector machine. Hence, for each variable in domain , we independently estimate its local distribution from data using a classification algorithm, even though it is a distinct method for each variable. Here, we will briefly show how probabilistic decision trees are used to estimate the local distributions. For each variable in , a probabilistic decision tree is learned where is the target variable and are the input variables. To learn a decision tree structure for , the search algorithm begins with a singleton root node without children. Then, each leaf node in the tree is replaced with a binary split on some variable in , until no more replacements increase the score of the tree.
A probabilistic inference is the task in which we wish to answer probabilistic queries of the form , given a graphical model for , where (the 'target' variables) (the 'input' variables) are disjoint subsets of . One of the alternatives for performing probabilistic inference is using Gibbs sampling. A naive approach for this uses an ordered Gibbs sampler, an important difficulty of which is that if either or is small, then many iterations are required for an accurate probability estimate. Another approach for estimating when is small is to use modified ordered Gibbs sampler, where is fixed during Gibbs sampling.
It may also happen that is rare, e.g. when has many variables. So, the law of total probability along with the independencies encoded in a dependency network can be used to decompose the inference task into a set of inference tasks on single variables. This approach comes with the advantage that some terms may be obtained by direct lookup, thereby avoiding some Gibbs sampling.
You can see below an algorithm that can be used for obtain for a particular instance of and , where and are disjoint subsets.
In addition to the applications to probabilistic inference, the following applications are in the category of Collaborative Filtering (CF), which is the task of predicting preferences. Dependency networks are a natural model class on which to base CF predictions, once an algorithm for this task only needs estimation of to produce recommendations. In particular, these estimates may be obtained by a direct lookup in a dependency network.
Another class of useful applications for dependency networks is related to data visualization, that is, visualization of predictive relationships.
Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability".
In statistics, naive Bayes classifiers are a family of simple "probabilistic classifiers" based on applying Bayes' theorem with strong (naive) independence assumptions between the features. They are among the simplest Bayesian network models, but coupled with kernel density estimation, they can achieve high accuracy levels.
A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process — call it — with unobservable ("hidden") states. As part of the definition, HMM requires that there be an observable process whose outcomes are "influenced" by the outcomes of in a known way. Since cannot be observed directly, the goal is to learn about by observing HMM has an additional requirement that the outcome of at time must be "influenced" exclusively by the outcome of at and that the outcomes of and at must not affect the outcome of at
A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Bayesian networks are ideal for taking an event that occurred and predicting the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases.
A graphical model or probabilistic graphical model (PGM) or structured probabilistic model is a probabilistic model for which a graph expresses the conditional dependence structure between random variables. They are commonly used in probability theory, statistics—particularly Bayesian statistics—and machine learning.
In statistics, Gibbs sampling or a Gibbs sampler is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for obtaining a sequence of observations which are approximated from a specified multivariate probability distribution, when direct sampling is difficult. This sequence can be used to approximate the joint distribution ; to approximate the marginal distribution of one of the variables, or some subset of the variables ; or to compute an integral. Typically, some of the variables correspond to observations whose values are known, and hence do not need to be sampled.
Belief propagation, also known as sum–product message passing, is a message-passing algorithm for performing inference on graphical models, such as Bayesian networks and Markov random fields. It calculates the marginal distribution for each unobserved node, conditional on any observed nodes. Belief propagation is commonly used in artificial intelligence and information theory, and has demonstrated empirical success in numerous applications, including low-density parity-check codes, turbo codes, free energy approximation, and satisfiability.
In statistics and machine learning, when one wants to infer a random variable with a set of variables, usually a subset is enough, and other variables are useless. Such a subset that contains all the useful information is called a Markov blanket. If a Markov blanket is minimal, meaning that it cannot drop any variable without losing information, it is called a Markov boundary. Identifying a Markov blanket or a Markov boundary helps to extract useful features. The terms of Markov blanket and Markov boundary were coined by Judea Pearl in 1988.
In the domain of physics and probability, a Markov random field (MRF), Markov network or undirected graphical model is a set of random variables having a Markov property described by an undirected graph. In other words, a random field is said to be a Markov random field if it satisfies Markov properties. The concept originates from the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model.
In decision theory, a scoring rule provides a summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions or forecasts. It is applicable to tasks in which predictions assign probabilities to events, i.e. one issues a probability distribution as prediction. This includes probabilistic classification of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes or classes.
Conditional random fields (CRFs) are a class of statistical modeling methods often applied in pattern recognition and machine learning and used for structured prediction. Whereas a classifier predicts a label for a single sample without considering "neighbouring" samples, a CRF can take context into account. To do so, the predictions are modelled as a graphical model, which represents the presence of dependencies between the predictions. What kind of graph is used depends on the application. For example, in natural language processing, "linear chain" CRFs are popular, for which each prediction is dependent only on its immediate neighbours. In image processing, the graph typically connects locations to nearby and/or similar locations to enforce that they receive similar predictions.
Bayesian inference of phylogeny combines the information in the prior and in the data likelihood to create the so-called posterior probability of trees, which is the probability that the tree is correct given the data, the prior and the likelihood model. Bayesian inference was introduced into molecular phylogenetics in the 1990s by three independent groups: Bruce Rannala and Ziheng Yang in Berkeley, Bob Mau in Madison, and Shuying Li in University of Iowa, the last two being PhD students at the time. The approach has become very popular since the release of the MrBayes software in 2001, and is now one of the most popular methods in molecular phylogenetics.
In probability theory and statistics, the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution is a family of discrete multivariate probability distributions on a finite support of non-negative integers. It is also called the Dirichlet compound multinomial distribution (DCM) or multivariate Pólya distribution. It is a compound probability distribution, where a probability vector p is drawn from a Dirichlet distribution with parameter vector , and an observation drawn from a multinomial distribution with probability vector p and number of trials n. The Dirichlet parameter vector captures the prior belief about the situation and can be seen as a pseudocount: observations of each outcome that occur before the actual data is collected. The compounding corresponds to a Pólya urn scheme. It is frequently encountered in Bayesian statistics, machine learning, empirical Bayes methods and classical statistics as an overdispersed multinomial distribution.
In probability theory and statistics, a categorical distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the possible results of a random variable that can take on one of K possible categories, with the probability of each category separately specified. There is no innate underlying ordering of these outcomes, but numerical labels are often attached for convenience in describing the distribution,. The K-dimensional categorical distribution is the most general distribution over a K-way event; any other discrete distribution over a size-K sample space is a special case. The parameters specifying the probabilities of each possible outcome are constrained only by the fact that each must be in the range 0 to 1, and all must sum to 1.
In probability theory and statistics Chow–Liu tree is an efficient method for constructing a second-order product approximation of a joint probability distribution, first described in a paper by Chow & Liu (1968). The goals of such a decomposition, as with such Bayesian networks in general, may be either data compression or inference.
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A graphoid is a set of statements of the form, "X is irrelevant to Y given that we know Z" where X, Y and Z are sets of variables. The notion of "irrelevance" and "given that we know" may obtain different interpretations, including probabilistic, relational and correlational, depending on the application. These interpretations share common properties that can be captured by paths in graphs. The theory of graphoids characterizes these properties in a finite set of axioms that are common to informational irrelevance and its graphical representations.
Stochastic chains with memory of variable length are a family of stochastic chains of finite order in a finite alphabet, such as, for every time pass, only one finite suffix of the past, called context, is necessary to predict the next symbol. These models were introduced in the information theory literature by Jorma Rissanen in 1983, as a universal tool to data compression, but recently have been used to model data in different areas such as biology, linguistics and music.
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Probabilistic numerics is a scientific field at the intersection of statistics, machine learning and applied mathematics, where tasks in numerical analysis including finding numerical solutions for integration, linear algebra, optimisation and differential equations are seen as problems of statistical, probabilistic, or Bayesian inference.
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