Earnings growth is the annual compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of earnings from investments.
When the dividend payout ratio is the same, the dividend growth rate is equal to the earnings growth rate. Earnings growth rate is a key value that is needed when the Discounted cash flow model, or the Gordon's model is used for stock valuation.
The present value is given by:
where P = the present value, k = discount rate, D = current dividend and is the revenue growth rate for period i.
If the growth rate is constant for to , then,
The last term corresponds to the terminal case. When the growth rate is always the same for perpetuity, Gordon's model results:
As Gordon's model suggests, the valuation is very sensitive to the value of g used. [1]
Part of the earnings is paid out as dividends and part of it is retained to fund growth, as given by the payout ratio and the plowback ratio. Thus the growth rate is given by
For the S&P 500 Index, the return on equity has ranged between 10 and 15% during the 20th century, the plowback ratio has ranged from 10 to 67% (see payout ratio).
It is sometimes recommended that revenue growth should be checked to ensure that earnings growth is not coming from special situations like sale of assets.
When the earnings acceleration (rate of change of earnings growth) is positive, it ensures that earnings growth is likely to continue.
According to economist Robert J. Shiller, real earnings per share grew at a 3.5% annualized rate over 150 years. [2] Since 1980, the most bullish period in U.S. stock market history, real earnings growth according to Shiller, has been 2.6%.
The table below gives recent values of earnings growth for S&P 500.
Date | Index | P/E | EPS growth (%) | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
12/31/2007 | 1468.36 | 17.58 | 1.4 | |
12/31/2006 | 1418.30 | 17.40 | 14.7 | |
12/31/2005 | 1248.29 | 17.85 | 13.0 | |
12/31/2004 | 1211.92 | 20.70 | 23.8 | |
12/31/2003 | 1111.92 | 22.81 | 18.8 | |
12/31/2002 | 879.82 | 31.89 | 18.5 | |
12/31/2001 | 1148.08 | 46.50 | -30.8 | 2001 contraction resulting in P/E Peak |
12/31/2000 | 1320.28 | 26.41 | 8.6 | Dot-com bubble burst: March 10, 2000 |
12/31/1999 | 1469.25 | 30.50 | 16.7 | |
12/31/1998 | 1229.23 | 32.60 | 0.6 | |
12/31/1997 | 970.43 | 24.43 | 8.3 | |
12/31/1996 | 740.74 | 19.13 | 7.3 | |
12/31/1995 | 615.93 | 18.14 | 18.7 | |
12/31/1994 | 459.27 | 15.01 | 18.0 | |
12/31/1993 | 466.45 | 21.31 | 28.9 | |
12/31/1992 | 435.71 | 22.82 | 8.1 | |
12/31/1991 | 417.09 | 26.12 | -14.8 | |
12/31/1990 | 330.22 | 15.47 | -6.9 | July 1990-March 1991 contraction. |
12/31/1989 | 353.40 | 15.45 | . | |
12/31/1988 | 277.72 | 11.69 | . | Bottom (Black Monday was October 19, 1987) |
The Federal Reserve responded to decline in earnings growth by cutting the target Federal funds rate (from 6.00 to 1.75% in 2001) and raising them when the growth rates are high (from 3.25 to 5.50 in 1994, 2.50 to 4.25 in 2005). [3]
Growth stocks generally command a higher P/E ratio because their future earnings are expected to be greater. In Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy Siegel examines the P/E ratios of growth and technology stocks. He examined Nifty Fifty stocks for the duration December 1972 to Nov 2001. He found that
Portfolio | Annualized Returns | 1972 P/E | Warranted P/E | EPS Growth |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nifty Fifty average | 11.62% | 41.9 | 38.7 | 10.14% |
S&P 500 | 12.14% | 18.9 | 18.9 | 6.98% |
This suggests that the significantly high P/E ratio for the Nifty Fifty as a group in 1972 was actually justified by the returns during the next three decades. However, he found that some individual stocks within the Nifty Fifty were overvalued while others were undervalued.
High growth rates cannot be sustained indefinitely. Ben McClure [4] suggests that period for which such rates can be sustained can be estimated using the following:
Competitive Situation | Sustainable period |
---|---|
Not very competitive | 1 year |
Solid company with recognizable brand name | 5 years |
Company with very high barriers to entry | 10 years |
It has been suggested that the earnings growth depends on the nominal GDP, since the earnings form a part of the GDP. [5] [6] It has been argued that the earnings growth must grow slower than GDP by approximately 2%. [7] See Sustainable growth rate#From a financial perspective.
The price-earnings ratio, also known as P/E ratio, P/E, or PER, is the ratio of a company's share (stock) price to the company's earnings per share. The ratio is used for valuing companies and to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued.
The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. The WACC is commonly referred to as the firm's cost of capital. Importantly, it is dictated by the external market and not by management. The WACC represents the minimum return that a company must earn on an existing asset base to satisfy its creditors, owners, and other providers of capital, or they will invest elsewhere.
The dividend yield or dividend–price ratio of a share is the dividend per share, divided by the price per share. It is also a company's total annual dividend payments divided by its market capitalization, assuming the number of shares is constant. It is often expressed as a percentage.
In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will overall rise in value, while overvalued stocks will generally decrease in value. A target price is a price at which an analyst believes a stock to be fairly valued relative to its projected and historical earnings.
The 'PEG ratio' is a valuation metric for determining the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share (EPS), and the company's expected growth.
The duration of a stock is the average of the times until its cash flows are received, weighted by their present values. The most popular model of duration uses dividends as the cash flows. In vernacular, the duration of a stock is how long we need to receive dividends to be repaid the purchase price of the stock. If a stock doesn't pay dividends, other methods using distributable cash flows, may be utilized.
Price–sales ratio, P/S ratio, or PSR, is a valuation metric for stocks. It is calculated by dividing the company's market capitalization by the revenue in the most recent year; or, equivalently, divide the per-share stock price by the per-share revenue.
John Virgil Lintner, Jr. was a professor at the Harvard Business School in the 1960s and one of the co-creators of the capital asset pricing model.
The "Fed model" or "Fed Stock Valuation Model" (FSVM), is a disputed theory of equity valuation that compares the stock market's forward earnings yield to the nominal yield on long-term government bonds, and that the stock market – as a whole – is fairly valued, when the one-year forward-looking I/B/E/S earnings yield equals the 10-year nominal Treasury yield; deviations suggest over-or-under valuation.
The dividend payout ratio is the fraction of net income a firm pays to its stockholders in dividends:
In finance and investing, the dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing the price of a company's stock based on the fact that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value. In other words, DDM is used to value stocks based on the net present value of the future dividends. The constant-growth form of the DDM is sometimes referred to as the Gordon growth model (GGM), after Myron J. Gordon of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Rochester, and the University of Toronto, who published it along with Eli Shapiro in 1956 and made reference to it in 1959. Their work borrowed heavily from the theoretical and mathematical ideas found in John Burr Williams 1938 book "The Theory of Investment Value," which put forth the dividend discount model 18 years before Gordon and Shapiro.
In finance, the T-model is a formula that states the returns earned by holders of a company's stock in terms of accounting variables obtainable from its financial statements. The T-model connects fundamentals with investment return, allowing an analyst to make projections of financial performance and turn those projections into a required return that can be used in investment selection.
According to PIMS, an important lever of business success is growth. Among 37 variables, growth is mentioned as one of the most important variables for success: market share, market growth, marketing expense to sales ratio or a strong market position.
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates is the proposition that the long-term rate is determined purely by current and future expected short-term rates, in such a way that the expected final value of wealth from investing in a sequence of short-term bonds equals the final value of wealth from investing in long-term bonds.
In finance, the capital structure substitution theory (CSS) describes the relationship between earnings, stock price and capital structure of public companies. The CSS theory hypothesizes that managements of public companies manipulate capital structure such that earnings per share (EPS) are maximized. Managements have an incentive to do so because shareholders and analysts value EPS growth. The theory is used to explain trends in capital structure, stock market valuation, dividend policy, the monetary transmission mechanism, and stock volatility, and provides an alternative to the Modigliani–Miller theorem that has limited descriptive validity in real markets. The CSS theory is only applicable in markets where share repurchases are allowed. Investors can use the CSS theory to identify undervalued stocks.
Dividend policy is concerned with financial policies regarding paying cash dividend in the present or paying an increased dividend at a later stage. Whether to issue dividends, and what amount, is determined mainly on the basis of the company's unappropriated profit and influenced by the company's long-term earning power. When cash surplus exists and is not needed by the firm, then management is expected to pay out some or all of those surplus earnings in the form of cash dividends or to repurchase the company's stock through a share buyback program.
The sum of perpetuities method (SPM) is a way of valuing a business assuming that investors discount the future earnings of a firm regardless of whether earnings are paid as dividends or retained. SPM is an alternative to the Gordon growth model (GGM) and can be applied to business or stock valuation if the business is assumed to have constant earnings and/or dividend growth. The variables are:
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings, adjusted for inflation. As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns.
Stochastic portfolio theory (SPT) is a mathematical theory for analyzing stock market structure and portfolio behavior introduced by E. Robert Fernholz in 2002. It is descriptive as opposed to normative, and is consistent with the observed behavior of actual markets. Normative assumptions, which serve as a basis for earlier theories like modern portfolio theory (MPT) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), are absent from SPT.
In the valuation theory department of economics, the Transactional Asset Pricing Approach (TAPA) is a general reconstruction of asset pricing theory developed in 2000s by a collaboration of Russian and Israeli economists Vladimir B. Michaletz and Andrey I. Artemenkov. It provides a basis for reconstructing the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and the resulting income capitalization techniques, such as the Gordon growth formula, from a transactional perspective relying, in the process, on a formulated dynamic principle of transactional equity-in-exchange.