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Gary G. Sick (born April 4, 1935) is an American academic and analyst of Middle East affairs, with special expertise on Iran, who served on the U.S. National Security Council [1] under Presidents Ford, Carter, and for a couple weeks under Reagan as well. He has authored three books, and is perhaps best known to the wider public for voicing support for elements of the 1980 October Surprise theory regarding the Iran hostage crisis and that year's presidential election.
Sick is a retired captain in the U.S. Navy. [2] He received a BA from University of Kansas in 1957, a Master of Science degree at George Washington University in 1970, followed by a PhD in political science at Columbia University in 1973. [2]
Sick served on the staff of the National Security Council under President Carter, and was the principal White House aide for Persian Gulf affairs from 1976 to 1981, a period which included the Iranian revolution and the hostage crisis.
After leaving government service, Sick served as Deputy Director for International Affairs at the Ford Foundation from 1982 to 1987, and is the executive director of the Gulf/2000 Project at Columbia University (1993–present), which has published five books and numbers many of the leading scholars on the Persian Gulf among its global membership. He is an adjunct professor of International Affairs and a senior research scholar at Columbia's School of International & Public Affairs, where he has been voted one of the top professors. He is emeritus member of the board of directors of Human Rights Watch, and serves as founding chair of the Advisory Committee of Human Rights Watch/Middle East. [3]
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 Booknotes interview with Gary Sick on October Surprise, December 1, 1991, C-SPAN |
On April 15, 1991, The New York Times published an opinion piece by Sick that stated "individuals associated with the Reagan-Bush campaign of 1980 met secretly with Iranian officials to delay the release of the American hostages until after the Presidential election. For this favor, Iran was rewarded with a substantial supply of arms from Israel." [4] [5] While the "October Surprise" allegations had been promoted by others as early as 1980, the Times article immediately elevated the story to national prominence. [5] [6] Sick later detailed the allegations in his book October Surprise: America's Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan. [5] Sick's allegations were addressed by both houses of Congress. [7] [8] The United States Senate's November 1992 report concluded that "by any standard, the credible evidence now known falls far short of supporting the allegation of an agreement between the Reagan campaign and Iran to delay the release of the hostages." [9] The House October Surprise Task Force's January 1993 report concluded "there is no credible evidence supporting any attempt by the Reagan presidential campaign—or persons associated with the campaign—to delay the release of the American hostages in Iran". [10]
The 1980 United States presidential election was the 49th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 4, 1980. The Republican ticket of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush defeated incumbent Democratic president Jimmy Carter and incumbent vice president Walter Mondale in a landslide victory.
The Carter Doctrine was a policy proclaimed by President of the United States Jimmy Carter in his State of the Union Address on January 23, 1980, which stated that the United States would use military force, if necessary, to defend its national interests in the Persian Gulf. It was a response to the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, and it was intended to deter the Soviet Union, the United States' Cold War adversary, from seeking hegemony in the Persian Gulf region.
William Joseph Casey was the Director of Central Intelligence from 1981 to 1987. In this capacity he oversaw the entire United States Intelligence Community and personally directed the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The Iran hostage crisis was a diplomatic standoff between Iran and the United States. Fifty-two American diplomats and citizens were held hostage after a group of militarized Iranian college students belonging to the Muslim Student Followers of the Imam's Line, who supported the Iranian Revolution, took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took them as hostages. The hostages were held for 444 days, from November 4, 1979 to their release on January 20, 1981. The crisis is considered a pivotal episode in the history of Iran–United States relations.
Donald Joseph Albosta was an American farmer, businessman, and politician from the U.S. state of Michigan. He served three terms in the United States House of Representatives from 1979 to 1985.
The 1980 October Surprise theory refers to an allegation that representatives of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign made a secret deal with Iranian leaders to delay the release of American hostages until after the election between Reagan and President Jimmy Carter, the incumbent. The detention of 66 Americans in Iran, held in hostage since November 4, 1979, was one of the leading national issues during 1980, and the alleged goal of the deal was to thwart Carter from pulling off an "October surprise". Reagan won the election, and, on the day of his inauguration—minutes after he concluded his 20-minute inaugural address—the Islamic Republic of Iran announced the release of the hostages.
Laurence Hirsch Silberman was an American jurist and diplomat who served as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit from 1985 until his death. He was appointed in October 1985 by President Ronald Reagan and took senior status on November 1, 2000. On June 11, 2008, President George W. Bush awarded Silberman the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
Sadegh Ghotbzadeh was an Iranian politician who served as a close aide of Ayatollah Khomeini during his 1978 exile in France and was foreign minister during the Iran hostage crisis following the Iranian Revolution. In 1982, he was executed for allegedly plotting the assassination of Ayatollah Khomeini and the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
In the politics of the United States, an October surprise is a news event that may influence the outcome of an upcoming November election, whether deliberately planned or spontaneously occurring. Because the date for national elections is in early November, events that take place in October have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters and allow less time to take remedial action; thus, relatively last-minute news stories could either change the course of an election or reinforce the inevitable. The term "October surprise" was coined by William Casey when he served as campaign manager of Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign. However, there were October election-upending events that predated the coining of the term.
Ari Ben-Menashe is an Israeli-Canadian businessman, security consultant, and author. He was previously an employee of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate from 1977 to 1987, and an arms dealer. He lives in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
American support for Ba'athist Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War, in which it fought against post-revolutionary Iran, included several billion dollars' worth of economic aid, the sale of dual-use technology, military intelligence, and special operations training. The U.S. refused to sell arms to Iraq directly due to Iraq's ties to terrorist groups, but several sales of "dual-use" technology have been documented; notably, Iraq purchased 45 Bell helicopters for $200 million in 1985. Of particular interest for contemporary Iran–United States relations are accusations that the U.S. government actively encouraged Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to invade Iran, supported by a considerable amount of circumstantial evidence and generally regarded as the conventional wisdom in the Arab world, but several scholars and former U.S. government officials deny that any such collusion occurred, and no direct documentary proof of it has been found.
An election surprise is an event which occurs preceding an election which has enough shock value that it may be able to sway voters in close elections. When planned, an election surprise may be an act of propaganda. Election surprises typically fall into categories such as terrorism, political scandals, etc.
Oswald LeWinter was an Austrian-born American author and poet. He was best known for his role in the October Surprise controversy.
Jimmy Carter's tenure as the 39th president of the United States began with his inauguration on January 20, 1977, and ended on January 20, 1981. A Democrat from Georgia, Carter took office after defeating incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford in the 1976 election. His presidency ended following his defeat in the 1980 election to Republican Ronald Reagan. Aged 99, he is the oldest living, longest-lived and longest-married president, and has the longest post-presidency. He is the fourth-oldest living former state leader.
The 1980 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 4. Republican presidential nominee Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter in a landslide. Republicans picked up seats in both chambers of Congress and won control of the Senate, though Democrats retained a majority in the House of Representatives. The election is sometimes referred to as part of the "Reagan Revolution", a conservative realignment in U.S. politics and marked the start of the Reagan Era.
Cyrus Hashemi was an Iranian arms dealer linked to the Iran-Contra affair, Brokers of Death arms case, and 1980 October Surprise theory. Robert Dreyfuss claimed Hashemi was a CIA and Mossad agent; Hashemi sued Dreyfuss and Lyndon LaRouche, whose Executive Intelligence Review had accused Hashemi of being linked to the alleged "funding of Iranian terrorism in the United States," with the case dismissed in June 1983 due to Hashemi's failure to respond to legal documents. Hashemi died from acute myeloblastic leukemia July 1986 in London.
The House October Surprise Task Force was a task force instituted by the United States House of Representatives in 1992 to examine the 1980 October Surprise theory which theorized that, during the 1980 United States presidential election, the Reagan campaign successfully negotiated with the government of Iran for a solution to the Iran hostage crisis that would not occur until after the election, so as to prevent President Jimmy Carter, Reagan's opponent, from getting an electoral boost.
Arif Ali Durrani is a Pakistani businessman who has twice been convicted by US courts of selling arms to Iran.
Joseph Verner Reed Jr. was an American banker and diplomat. He served as United States Ambassador to Morocco from 1981 to 1985, and as Chief of Protocol of the United States from 1989 to 1991.
The 1980 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on November 4, 1980. All 50 states and The District of Columbia were part of the 1980 United States presidential election. State voters chose seven electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
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