Impressionable years hypothesis

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The impressionable years hypothesis is a theory of political psychology that posits that individuals form durable political attitudes and party affiliations during late adolescence and early adulthood. In United States political history, the theory has been used to explain the waxing and waning in the strength of the two major political parties. The theory has also been applied outside of the United States.

Political psychology is an interdisciplinary academic field dedicated to understanding politics, politicians and political behavior from a psychological perspective. The relationship between politics and psychology is considered bi-directional, with psychology being used as a lens for understanding politics and politics being used as a lens for understanding psychology. As an interdisciplinary field, political psychology borrows from a wide range of other disciplines, including: anthropology, sociology, international relations, economics, philosophy, media, journalism and history.

An ideology is a set of normative beliefs and values that a person or other entity has for non-epistemic reasons. These rely on basic assumptions about reality that may or may not have any factual basis. The term is especially used to describe systems of ideas and ideals which form the basis of economic or political theories and resultant policies. In these there are tenuous causal links between policies and outcomes owing to the large numbers of variables available, so that many key assumptions have to be made. In political science the term is used in a descriptive sense to refer to political belief systems.

A political party is an organized group of people who have the same ideology, or who otherwise have the same political positions, and who field candidates for elections, in an attempt to get them elected and thereby implement the party's agenda.

Contents

Hypothesis

According to the impressionable years hypothesis, the historical environment has an important socializing influence on individuals of entire generations, and individuals within these generations thus tend to share values and attitudes compared to individuals within other generations. Under the strictest definition of this hypothesis, attitudes remain fixed in individuals after they exit their early adulthood. Political change thus happens primarily through a process known as cohort replacement, in which a generation dies out and is replaced by another generation. Two theories contrast to the impressionable years hypothesis. The "increasing persistence hypothesis" posits that attitudes become less likely to change as individuals become older, while the "life-long openness hypothesis" proposes that the attitudes of individuals remain flexible regardless of age. [1]

A generation is "all of the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively." It can also be described as, "the average period, generally considered to be about thirty years, during which children are born and grow up, become adults, and begin to have children of their own". In kinship terminology, it is a structural term designating the parent-child relationship. It is also known as biogenesis, reproduction, or procreation in the biological sciences.

An influential 1928 essay by Karl Mannheim proposed that political leanings were heavily influenced by the historical context of an individual's youth. [2] Another early exploration of the idea began in the 1930s under the direction of Theodore Newcomb. In the Bennington College Study, Newcomb tracked the political attitudes of a cohort of female students attending Bennington College. In follow-up interviews conducted decades later, Newcomb found that the previously-conservative women had retained liberal political attitudes that they had first gained at Bennington. [1]

Karl Mannheim Hungarian sociologist

Karl Mannheim was a influential German sociologist during the first half of the 20th century. He was a founding father of classical sociology, as well as idea of sociology of knowledge. Mannheim is known for Ideology and Utopia (1929) wherein he argues that ideologies are representative of the true nature of a society, and that, in trying to achieve a utopia, the dogmas of ideology affect the intellectual integrity of theories of philosophy and theories of history.

Theodore Newcomb American social psychologist

Theodore Mead Newcomb was an American social psychologist, professor and author. Newcomb led the Bennington College Study, which looked at the influence of the college experience on social and political beliefs. He was also the first to document the effects of proximity on acquaintance and attraction. Newcomb founded and directed the doctoral program in social psychology at the University of Michigan. A Review of General Psychology survey, published in 2002, ranked Newcomb as the 57th most cited psychologist of the 20th century.

Bennington College Liberal arts college in Vermont

Bennington College is a private liberal arts college in Bennington, Vermont, founded in 1932. Originally a women's college, it became co-educational in 1969. It was the first college to include visual and performing arts as an equal partner in the liberal arts curriculum. It is accredited by the New England Association of Schools and Colleges.

United States

Polling and analyses by Gallup, the Pew Research Center, and other sources have found that year of birth is an important predictor of political affiliation. [3] [4] [5] For example, Baby boomers born during the early-to-mid 1950s tend to be significantly more Democratic-leaning than those born earlier or later. These Baby Boomers entered adulthood in the late 1960s and early 1970s, a period which saw the liberalization of American social views. By contrast, younger Boomers who came of age during the stagflation and tax revolts of the late 1970s have tended to favor the Republican Party. [3]

Gallup, Inc. is an American analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Starting in the 1980s, Gallup transitioned its business to focus on providing analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition to its analytics, management consulting, and Gallup Poll, the company also offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.

The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan American think tank based in Washington, D.C. It provides information on social issues, public opinion, and demographic trends shaping the United States and the world. It also conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis, and other empirical social science research. The Pew Research Center does not take policy positions, and is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts.

Baby boomers are the demographic cohort following the Silent Generation and preceding Generation X. The Baby Boom generation is most often defined as those individuals born between 1946 and 1964.

According to a 2014 model developed by Catalist and Columbia University, presidential approval ratings inform voting behaviors for decades. The model works best with white voters, as black voters have tended to more consistently vote for Democratic candidates, and there is less data available for the remaining demographic groups. According to the model, popular presidents such as Dwight D. Eisenhower can leave lasting impressions on voters in their young adulthood. The model estimates that events that occur between the ages of 14 and 24 are the most important in determining an individual's political attitudes, though those attitudes continue to change after age 24. [6] A separate model developed by Professor Dan Hopkins found that the political affiliation of a given individual was strongly affected by the popularity of presidents when that individual turned 18 years old. [7]

Columbia University Private Ivy League research university in New York City

Columbia University is a private Ivy League research university in New York City. Established in 1754 near the Upper West Side region of Manhattan, Columbia is the oldest institution of higher education in New York and the fifth-oldest institution of higher learning in the United States. It is one of nine colonial colleges founded prior to the Declaration of Independence, seven of which belong to the Ivy League. It has been ranked by numerous major education publications as among the top ten universities in the world.

Dwight D. Eisenhower 34th president of the United States

Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower was an American army general and statesman who served as the 34th president of the United States from 1953 to 1961. During World War II, he was a five-star general in the Army and served as Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in Europe. He was responsible for planning and supervising the invasion of North Africa in Operation Torch in 1942–43 and the successful Invasion of Normandy in 1944–45 from the Western Front.

New Deal coalition in the South

Osborne et al. use the theory to partially explain the decline of the Democratic Party and the New Deal coalition in the South. According to their theory, the events of the civil rights movement were extremely unpopular among white Southerners and the support of national Democratic leadership for the civil rights movement alienated white Southerners from the party. While older Southern voters resisted changes to their political affiliations and attitudes, younger voters moved to the Republican Party. As, older, Democratic voters died out, the Republican Party became the dominant party in the South. [8]

The New Deal coalition was the alignment of interest groups and voting blocs in the United States that supported the New Deal and voted for Democratic presidential candidates from 1932 until the late 1960s. It made the Democratic Party the majority party during that period, losing only to Dwight D. Eisenhower, a pro-New Deal Republican, in 1952 and 1956. Franklin D. Roosevelt forged a coalition that included the Democratic state party organizations, city machines, labor unions, blue collar workers, minorities, farmers, white Southerners, people on relief, and intellectuals. The coalition began to fall apart with the bitter factionalism during the 1968 election, but it remains the model that party activists seek to replicate.

Southern United States Cultural region of the United States

The Southern United States, also known as the American South, Dixie, or simply the South, is a region of the United States of America. It is located between the Atlantic Ocean and the Western United States, with the Midwestern United States and Northeastern United States to its north and the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico to its south.

Civil rights movement Social movement in the United States during the 20th century

The civil rights movement in the United States was a decades-long struggle with the goal of enforcing constitutional and legal rights for African Americans that white Americans already enjoyed. With roots that dated back to the Reconstruction era during the late 19th century, the movement achieved its largest legislative gains in the mid-1960s, after years of direct actions and grassroots protests that were organized from the mid-1950s until 1968. Encompassing strategies, various groups, and organized social movements to accomplish the goals of ending legalized racial segregation, disenfranchisement, and discrimination in the United States, the movement, using major nonviolent campaigns, eventually secured new recognition in federal law and federal protection for all Americans.

Outside the United States

The impressionable years hypothesis has also been explored in other countries. A 2002 study by James Tilley found that individuals in the United Kingdom who came of age during the 1920s, 1950s, and 1980s tended to more strongly support the Conservative Party, which was dominant during those decades. [9] A 2004 study in Algeria found that most generations were not strongly affected by the circumstances of their youth, with some exceptions regarding certain attitudes in certain generations. [2]

See also

Related Research Articles

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Theories of political behavior, as an aspect of political science, attempt to quantify and explain the influences that define a person's political views, ideology, and levels of political participation. Broadly speaking, behavior is political whenever individuals or groups try to influence or escape the influence of others. Political behavior is the subset of human behavior that involves politics and powers. Theorists who have had an influence on this field include Karl Deutsch and Theodor Adorno.

Millennials, also known as Generation Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years, with 1981 to 1996 a widely accepted definition. Millennials are sometimes referred to as "echo boomers" due to a major surge in birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s, and because millennials are often the children of the baby boomers. The characteristics of millennials vary by region and by individual, and the group experiences a variety of social and economic conditions, but they are generally marked by their coming of age in the Information Age, and are comfortable in their usage of digital technologies and social media.

Youth culture the way adolescents live, and the norms, values, and practices they share

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References

  1. 1 2 Krosnick, Jon A.; Alwin, Duane F. (1989). "Aging and Susceptibility to Attitude Change" (PDF). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 57 (3): 416–425. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.57.3.416.
  2. 1 2 Tessler, Mark; Konold, Carrie; Reif, Megan (2004). "Political Generations in Developing Countries: Evidence and Insights from Algeria". 68 (2): 184–216. doi:10.1093/poq/nfh011. JSTOR   3521589.Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  3. 1 2 Newport, Frank; Jones, Jeffrey N.; Saad, Lydia (23 January 2014). "Baby Boomers to Push U.S. Politics in the Years Ahead". Gallup. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  4. ↑ "THE GENERATION GAP AND THE 2012 ELECTION". Pew Research Center. 3 November 2011. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  5. ↑ Sides, John (10 March 2014). "Democrats have a young people problem, too". Washington Post. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  6. ↑ Cox, Amanda (7 July 2014). "How Birth Year Influences Political Views". New York Times. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  7. ↑ Hopkins, Dan (22 April 2014). "Partisan Loyalty Begins at Age 18". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  8. ↑ Osborne, Danny; Sears, David O.; Valentino, Nicholas A. (February 2011). "The End of the Solidly Democratic South: The Impressionable-Years Hypothesis". Political Psychology. 32 (1): 81–107. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9221.2010.00796.x. JSTOR   41057680.
  9. ↑ Tilley, James (2002). "Political Generations and Partisanship in the UK, 1964-1997". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 165 (1): 121–135. doi:10.1111/1467-985x.00628. JSTOR   3559764.
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