Joeri Rogelj

Last updated
Joeri Rogelj
Born1980 (age 4344)
NationalityBelgian
Alma mater
Awards Piers Sellers Prize (2016)
International Science Council Early Career Scientist Award, Europe (2021)
Scientific career
Fields Climate change
Institutions

Joeri Rogelj (born 1980) is a Belgian [1] climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. [2] He is a Professor in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, [2] both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [2] He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), [3] and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change. [4]

Contents

Education

Rogelj completed an engineering degree at the KU Leuven (Belgium) in 2003, and also obtained a postgraduate degree in Cultures and Development Studies at the same institution in 2005. [2] He completed his PhD in climate physics at Swiss Federal Institute for Technology (ETH Zurich) in 2013 under the supervision of Prof. Reto Knutti on the topic of uncertainties in low greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. [5]

Career

Rogelj started his climate science career in the PRIMAP Research Group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in 2009. [6] After obtaining his PhD, he joined the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [7] In 2018, he joined the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College London. [8]

From 2006 to 2008, Rogelj worked as a project engineer on rural development projects in Rwanda. [2] [6]

Research and impact

Rogelj publishes on international climate agreements such as the Copenhagen Accord [9] or the Paris Agreement, [10] carbon budgets, [11] [12] emission pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 °C [13] [14] and 2 °C, [15] net zero emissions targets, [16] and linkages between climate, sustainable development, and justice. [17] [18]

According to the International Science Council, he has pioneered "work on climate change scenarios [that] changed the global conversation around the feasibility of keeping global warming to 1.5°C in advance of the UN Paris Agreement" in 2015. [19]

He serves as a lead author on the annual Emissions Gap Reports from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) that provide annual updates on the gap between country pledges and emission reductions necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. [20]

He was a contributing author to the 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), [21] [22] [23] a coordinating author of the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, [1] [24] and a lead author on the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. [25]

In 2019, he served as a member of the Climate Science Advisory Group to the United Nations Secretary-General's Climate Action Summit. [26]

Since 2022, he serves on the "European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change" that provides independent scientific advice on EU measures, climate targets and indicative greenhouse gas budgets. [4]

Rogelj also provides scientific evidence for climate change litigation, for example, in support of "Children vs Climate Crisis" in which 16 children from across the world petition the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child to hold five of the world's leading economic powers accountable for inaction on the climate crisis. [27]

Awards and honours

Rogelj received the 2021 Early Career Scientist Award for Europe from the International Science Council (ISC) for the "exceptional impact" his research has had on international climate policy. [19] In 2016, he received the inaugural Piers Sellers Award for "world leading solution-focused climate research" by the Priestley International Centre for Climate. [28] In 2014, he received the ETH Medal for his outstanding PhD thesis [29] and in 2010 the Peccei Award for outstanding work by a young scientist. [30]

Rogelj is a Clarivate Web of Science Highly Cited Researcher in 2019 [31] and 2020, [32] recognizing the world's most influential researchers of the past decade, and was ranked 31st in The Reuters Hot List of the World's Top Climate Scientists. [33]

Selected works

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming potential</span> Potential heat absorbed by a greenhouse gas

Global warming potential (GWP) is an index to measure of how much infrared thermal radiation a greenhouse gas would absorb over a given time frame after it has been added to the atmosphere. The GWP makes different greenhouse gases comparable with regards to their "effectiveness in causing radiative forcing". It is expressed as a multiple of the radiation that would be absorbed by the same mass of added carbon dioxide, which is taken as a reference gas. Therefore, the GWP is one for CO2. For other gases it depends on how strongly the gas absorbs infrared thermal radiation, how quickly the gas leaves the atmosphere, and the time frame being considered.

In climatology, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a collaborative framework designed to improve knowledge of climate change. It was organized in 1995 by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). It is developed in phases to foster the climate model improvements but also to support national and international assessments of climate change. A related project is the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change</span> Current rise in Earths average temperature and its effects

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices add to greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane. Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere, causing global warming.

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM)  is a term used for a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The goal of integrated assessment modelling is to accommodate informed policy-making, usually in the context of climate change though also in other areas of human and social development. While the detail and extent of integrated disciplines varies strongly per model, all climatic integrated assessment modelling includes economic processes as well as processes producing greenhouse gases. Other integrated assessment models also integrate other aspects of human development such as education, health, infrastructure, and governance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon dioxide removal</span> Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide through human activity

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also known as carbon removal, greenhouse gas removal (GGR) or negative emissions, is a process in which carbon dioxide gas is removed from the atmosphere by deliberate human activities and durably stored in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. In the context of net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets, CDR is increasingly integrated into climate policy, as an element of climate change mitigation strategies. Achieving net zero emissions will require both deep cuts in emissions and the use of CDR, but CDR is not a current climate solution. In the future, CDR may be able to counterbalance emissions that are technically difficult to eliminate, such as some agricultural and industrial emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hans Joachim Schellnhuber</span> German atmospheric physicist and climatologist

Hans Joachim "John" Schellnhuber is a German atmospheric physicist, climatologist and founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and former chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change scenario</span> Projections of future greenhouse gas emissions


Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold. This will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Representative Concentration Pathway</span> Projections used in climate change modeling

A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The pathways describe different climate change scenarios, all of which are considered possible depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. The RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100. The higher values mean higher greenhouse gas emissions and therefore higher global temperatures and more pronounced effects of climate change. The lower RCP values, on the other hand, are more desirable for humans but require more stringent climate change mitigation efforts to achieve them.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate inertia</span> Slow response of complex feedback systems

Climate inertia or climate change inertia is the phenomenon by which a planet's climate system shows a resistance or slowness to deviate away from a given dynamic state. It can accompany stability and other effects of feedback within complex systems, and includes the inertia exhibited by physical movements of matter and exchanges of energy. The term is a colloquialism used to encompass and loosely describe a set of interactions that extend the timescales around climate sensitivity. Inertia has been associated with the drivers of, and the responses to, climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon budget</span> Limit on carbon dioxide emission for a given climate impact

A carbon budget is a concept used in climate policy to help set emissions reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It looks at "the maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level". When expressed relative to the pre-industrial period it is referred to as the total carbon budget, and when expressed from a recent specified date it is referred to as the remaining carbon budget.

The transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) is the ratio of the globally averaged surface temperature change per unit carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted.

Brian C. O'Neill is an American earth system scientist who studies the relationship between future societal development, emissions, and climate change impacts. O'Neill is known for interdisciplinary work on climate and human systems, in particular population and climate change. He was also involved in the development of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to be used in scenario analysis. He served as a lead author for several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C</span> Special climate change report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018. The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries. In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report. The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change. Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions" and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Niklas Höhne</span> German researcher

Niklas Höhne is a German scientist in the field of national and international climate policy and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. He is founder of the NewClimate Institute in Cologne, Germany and professor at Wageningen University.

Kristie L. Ebi is an American epidemiologist whose primary focus is the impact of global warming on human health. She is a professor of Global Health and Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences in the Department of Global Health at the University of Washington.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</span> How the world might change up to the end of the 21st century

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change in 2021. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies. The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments. These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating elements of the narratives to each other. In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying the scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP. The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Katherine Calvin</span> American earth scientist

Katherine Calvin is NASA's Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor. In July 2023, she was elected co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III. As an earth scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), she has researched human use of global resources using Earth modeling systems at JGCRI under the direction of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Maryland. She has contributed to the third US National Climate Assessment as well as two special reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

There are various theoretical frameworks to mitigate climate change. Frameworks are significant in that they provide a lens through which an argument can be addressed, and can be used to understand the possible angles from which to approach solving climate change. Frameworks in political science are used to think about a topic from various angles in order to understand different perspectives of the topic; common ones in international political science include rationalist, culturalist, marxist, and liberal institutionalist. See international relations theory for more frameworks through which problems can be analyzed.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate target</span> Policy for emissions reductions

A climate target, climate goal or climate pledge is a measurable long-term commitment for climate policy and energy policy with the aim of limiting the climate change. Researchers within, among others, the UN climate panel have identified probable consequences of global warming for people and nature at different levels of warming. Based on this, politicians in a large number of countries have agreed on temperature targets for warming, which is the basis for scientifically calculated carbon budgets and ways to achieve these targets. This in turn forms the basis for politically decided global and national emission targets for greenhouse gases, targets for fossil-free energy production and efficient energy use, and for the extent of planned measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Sabine Fuss is a German climate scientist. She heads the "Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change" working group at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). She is a professor at Humboldt University of Berlin.

References

  1. 1 2 3 IPCC (2021). "IPCC Authors".
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 "Dr Joeri Rogelj". Imperial College London. Retrieved 26 November 2021.
  3. UNEP (25 October 2021). "Emissions Gap Report 2021" . Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  4. 1 2 European Environment Agency. "European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change" . Retrieved 10 April 2022.
  5. Rogelj, Joeri (2013). Uncertainties of low greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Thesis). ETH Zurich. doi:10.3929/ethz-a-009915210. hdl:20.500.11850/69139.
  6. 1 2 "PRIMAP website" . Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  7. IIASA (13 April 2021). "Joeri Rogelj". iiasa.ac.at. Retrieved 25 April 2022.
  8. Buttler, Lottie (28 August 2018). ""The next 10 years are critical" - Dr Rogelj, IPCC 1.5°C Special Report author" . Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  9. Rogelj, Joeri; Nabel, Julia; Chen, Claudine; Hare, William; Markmann, Kathleen; Meinshausen, Malte; Schaeffer, Michiel; Macey, Kirsten; Höhne, Niklas (2010). "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry". Nature. 464 (7292): 1126–1128. Bibcode:2010Natur.464.1126R. doi:10.1038/4641126a. ISSN   0028-0836. PMID   20414291. S2CID   4359678.
  10. Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte (2016-06-30). "Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C". Nature. 534 (7609): 631–639. Bibcode:2016Natur.534..631R. doi:10.1038/nature18307. ISSN   0028-0836. PMID   27357792. S2CID   205249514.
  11. Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan P.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Allen, Myles; Knutti, Reto (2016). "Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled". Nature Climate Change. 6 (3): 245–252. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..245R. doi:10.1038/nclimate2868. hdl: 1874/330323 . ISSN   1758-678X. S2CID   87929010.
  12. Rogelj, Joeri; Forster, Piers M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Smith, Christopher J.; Séférian, Roland (2019-07-18). "Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets". Nature. 571 (7765): 335–342. Bibcode:2019Natur.571..335R. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z . hdl: 10044/1/78011 . ISSN   0028-0836. PMID   31316194. S2CID   197542084.
  13. Rogelj, Joeri; Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Schaeffer, Michiel; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan (2015). "Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C". Nature Climate Change. 5 (6): 519–527. Bibcode:2015NatCC...5..519R. doi:10.1038/nclimate2572. ISSN   1758-678X.
  14. Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker (2018). "Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C". Nature Climate Change. 8 (4): 325–332. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..325R. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3. hdl: 1874/372779 . ISSN   1758-678X. S2CID   56238230.
  15. Rogelj, Joeri; Hare, William; Lowe, Jason; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Matthews, Ben; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Jiang, Kejun; Meinshausen, Malte (2011). "Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit". Nature Climate Change. 1 (8): 413–418. Bibcode:2011NatCC...1..413R. doi:10.1038/nclimate1258. hdl: 1874/314034 . ISSN   1758-678X.
  16. Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph; Riahi, Keywan; Hare, William (2015-10-01). "Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection". Environmental Research Letters. 10 (10): 105007. Bibcode:2015ERL....10j5007R. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007 . hdl: 20.500.11850/108056 . ISSN   1748-9326. S2CID   44735387.
  17. Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L.; Riahi, Keywan (2013). "The UN's 'Sustainable Energy for All' initiative is compatible with a warming limit of 2 °C". Nature Climate Change. 3 (6): 545–551. Bibcode:2013NatCC...3..545R. doi:10.1038/nclimate1806. ISSN   1758-678X.
  18. Robiou du Pont, Yann; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gütschow, Johannes; Rogelj, Joeri; Christoff, Peter; Meinshausen, Malte (2017). "Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals". Nature Climate Change. 7 (1): 38–43. Bibcode:2017NatCC...7...38R. doi:10.1038/nclimate3186. hdl: 10044/1/78110 . ISSN   1758-678X.
  19. 1 2 International Science Council. "Profiles - Joeri Rogelj". ISC Website. Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  20. Emissions Gap Report 2020. United Nations. 2020. ISBN   978-92-807-3812-4. OCLC   1295582713.
  21. IPCC (2013). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  22. IPCC (2014). "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  23. IPCC. "Summary for Policymakers" (PDF). AR5 Synthesis Report. Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  24. Rogelj, J. Shindell, D. Jiang, K. Fifita, S. Forster, P. Ginzburg, V. Handa, C. Kheshgi, H. Kobayashi, S. Kriegler, E. Mundaca, L. Seferian, R. Vilarino, M.V. Calvin, K. Edelenbosch, O. Emmerling, J. Fuss, S. Gasser, T. Gillet, N. He, C. Hertwich, E. Höglund-Isaksson, L. Huppmann, D. Luderer, G. Markandya, A. McCollum, D. Millar, R. Meinshausen, M. Popp, A. Pereira, J. Purohit, P. Riahi, K. Ribes, A. Saunders, H. Schadel, C. Smith, C. Smith, P. Trutnevyte, E. Xiu, Y. Zickfeld, K. Zhou (2018). Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. OCLC   1143714180.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  25. I., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group (2021). Climate change 2021 the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. OCLC   1295500564.
  26. World Meteorological Organisation (2019). "United in Science. High-level synthesis report of latest climate science information convened by the Science Advisory Group of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019" (PDF). Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  27. Rogelj, Joeri (September 2019). "APPENDIX B: Climate physics consequences of further delay in achieving CO2 emissions reductions and intergenerational fairness, Grantham Institute of Science Brief" (PDF). ChildrenVsClimateCrisis. Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  28. Priestley International Centre for Climate (15 June 2016). "First Piers Sellers Prizes awarded" . Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  29. IIASA (9 January 2015). "Joeri Rogelj awarded ETH Medal for thesis on climate science".
  30. IIASA (18 March 2021). "Awards for YSSP Participants" . Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  31. Clarivate (2019). "Highly Cited Researchers" . Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  32. Clarivate (2020). "Highly Cited Researchers" . Retrieved 24 April 2022.
  33. "The Reuters Hot List". Reuters . 20 April 2021. Retrieved 24 April 2022.