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Joseph Gerard Haubrich (born September 10, 1958) is an economist and consultant. His work focuses on financial institution and regulations research.
Haubrich was born on September 10, 1958, in Oak Park, Illinois, to Joseph Haubrich and Alfreda Haubrich. [1] He grew up in Boulder, Colorado and graduated from Regis Jesuit High School.
Haubrich earned his bachelor's degree in economics at the University of Chicago and his masters and PhD in economics from the University of Rochester in New York. After completing his doctorate, Joseph was an assistant professor at University of Pennsylvania's business school, Wharton School in Philadelphia. He taught finance to graduate students. In 1990, Joseph joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland as an economist and consultant in the research department. He served vice president at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and led the Research Department's Banking and Financial Institutions Group. Joseph is a senior economic and policy advisor at the Cleveland Fed. [2] Financial institutions and regulations research are two subjects he specializes in.
In addition to being a research economist, Joseph also examines and referees numerous educational and professional journals and writings.
Joseph Haubrich is a research economist and conducts research concerning regulatory policy and banking issues and provides advice on financial policy formulation with a special emphasis on fixed income markets.
His areas of expertise include:
Haubrich is well-known in the economic and finance world for his research and work on the yield curve, specifically using an inverted yield curve to predict recessions. [4] The academic journal Annual Review of Financial Economics published his paper titled "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?" which details the yield curve and recession correlation. [4] His research work evaluates how well the yield curve predicts recessions and future output, in addition to how how the yield curve can be used to measure expected inflation.
He co-wrote "Peak Oil" which is an economic commentary with Brent Meyer that discusses the economic effects of the world's oil production. [7] This piece is used in a variety of research, detailing on the relationship between oil, the economy, and society.
Haubrich's economic research has been published in a variety of academic and professional journals. He has also served on the editorial board for several professional journals, including The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. He writes frequently for the Annual Reports, including Putting Systemic Risk on the Radar Screen in the 2009 Annual Report. This report selection describes and analyzes the United States' 2008 financial crisis, regulatory reforms, plans to break up huge companies, consumer protection agencies, derivatives, insurance companies, and hedge funds. [8]
On Mortgage-backed security, Joseph wrote and was quoted "A collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) is a more complex MBS in which the mortgages are ordered into tranches by some quality (such as repayment time), with each tranche sold as a separate security." [9]
Joseph Haubrich is also listed as one of the top 5% of authors according to the criteria from IDEAS from RePEc [11]
Joseph co-edited the book "Quantifying Systemic Risk" with Andrew Lo, and addresses the challenges faced when measuring statistical risk [12] This book was released in 2013. [13]
Some of Joseph's notable and widely-known economic publications include:
In 2014, Joseph produced a documentary film titled "Panic of 1907" that illustrates how the panic led to the creation of the Federal Reserve system. This film stemmed from a 2012 study he worked on with Michael Bordo at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. [19] A paper covering this topic is titled Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record written in conjunction with Bordo in 2013. [20]
This film can be viewed at the Museum of American Finance [21] and was produced for the Learning Center and Money Museum located at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
The "Panic of 1907" documentary was featured in the Chagrin Falls Documentary Film Festival in 2015 in the "Shorts" category. [22]
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes national, regional, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output/GDP and national income, unemployment, price indices and inflation, consumption, saving, investment, energy, international trade, and international finance.
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using the consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms.
Monetary economics is the branch of economics that studies the different theories of money: it provides a framework for analyzing money and considers its functions, and it considers how money can gain acceptance purely because of its convenience as a public good. The discipline has historically prefigured, and remains integrally linked to, macroeconomics. This branch also examines the effects of monetary systems, including regulation of money and associated financial institutions and international aspects.
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability. Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since then, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies.
In finance, the yield curve is a graph which depicts how the yields on debt instruments – such as bonds – vary as a function of their years remaining to maturity. Typically, the graph's horizontal or x-axis is a time line of months or years remaining to maturity, with the shortest maturity on the left and progressively longer time periods on the right. The vertical or y-axis depicts the annualized yield to maturity.
In public finance, a lender of last resort (LOLR) is the institution in a financial system that acts as the provider of liquidity to a financial institution which finds itself unable to obtain sufficient liquidity in the interbank lending market when other facilities or such sources have been exhausted. It is, in effect, a government guarantee to provide liquidity to financial institutions. Since the beginning of the 20th century, most central banks have been providers of lender of last resort facilities, and their functions usually also include ensuring liquidity in the financial market in general.
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled by "Consensus Economics". Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently.
Ricardo A. M. R. Reis is a Portuguese economist and the A. W. Phillips professor of economics at the London School of Economics. He has published widely on macroeconomics, including both monetary and fiscal policy, inflation and business cycles, and for these he won the 2021 Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation medal awarded every two years by the European Economic Association for best economist under the age of 45. He writes a weekly op-ed for the Portuguese newspaper Expresso.
John Brian Taylor is the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.
A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults. Financial crises directly result in a loss of paper wealth but do not necessarily result in significant changes in the real economy.
In finance, an inverted yield curve is a yield curve in which short-term debt instruments have a greater yield than longer term bonds. An inverted yield curve is an unusual phenomenon; bonds with shorter maturities generally provide lower yields than longer term bonds.
Guillermo Antonio Calvo is an Argentine-American economist who is director of Columbia University's mid-career Program in Economic Policy Management in their School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).
Stock market cycles are proposed patterns that proponents argue may exist in stock markets. Many such cycles have been proposed, such as tying stock market changes to political leadership, or fluctuations in commodity prices. Some stock market designs are universally recognized. However, many academics and professional investors are skeptical of any theory claiming to identify or predict stock market cycles precisely. Some sources argue identifying any such patterns as a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of their non-cyclical nature. Economists using efficient-market hypothesis say that asset prices reflect all available information meaning that it is impossible to systematically beat the market by taking advantage of such cycles.
The 2007–2008 financial crisis, or the global financial crisis (GFC), was the most severe worldwide economic crisis since the Great Depression. Predatory lending in the form of subprime mortgages targeting low-income homebuyers, excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, a continuous buildup of toxic assets within banks, and the bursting of the United States housing bubble culminated in a "perfect storm", which led to the Great Recession.
Gikas A. Hardouvelis is a Greek economist and former senior government official serving as chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Greece (NBG). He was the Minister of Finance of the Hellenic Republic from June 2014 to January 2015.
Edward J. Kane was an American economist and writer. He was a long-time student of incentive conflict in financial regulation and in crisis-management policies. His writing contends that too-big-to-fail policies are rooted in the cultural norms of major central banks around the world.
Tobias Adrian is a German and American economist who has been Financial Counsellor of the International Monetary Fund and Head of their Monetary and Capital Markets Department since 2017. He was previously employed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he was a Senior Vice President and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. His research covers aspects of risk to the wider economy of developments in capital markets. His work has covered the global financial crisis, monetary policy transmission, and the yield curve.
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